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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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decreds

Suprised Props didn't get there first:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?srnd=premium-europe

Basically Biden is coming after Ireland's corporate tax rate, while i don't foresee it impacting MNCs and their investment by a huge amount, someone will have to pay the piper though.

PropQueries

decreds wrote: »

Suprised Props didn't get there first:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?srnd=premium-europe

Basically Biden is coming after Ireland's corporate tax rate, while i don't foresee it impacting MNCs and their investment by a huge amount, someone will have to pay the piper though.

Another important signal in the UK's planned corporation tax rise from 19% to 25% was that "he said a new small profits rate would maintain the 19% rate for firms with profits of £50,000 or less, meaning that about 70% of companies - 1.4 million businesses - would be completely unaffected by the tax rise.".

So, to me anyway, it's another clear signal that the bigger economies (i.e. the ones who make the decisions), are planning a big raid on the big multinationals profits.

It never made sense to me that big companies pay the same tax on profits as someone who owns and also works in their own business e.g. a cafe owner.

Like many landlords, the shareholders of multinationals are generally passive investors (i.e. they primarily do nothing but invest inherited wealth or are funds investing other peoples savings etc.) and don't deserve the same breaks afforded to real small business owners who actually contribute to both the economy and society.

Yes, multinationals etc. create jobs etc., but they would do that anyway without all the extra help provided by the state IMO. Obviously, I'm thinking from the UK, USA etc. side. In Ireland's case, obviously tax is why they're primarily here.

MacronvFrugals

Dublin down 12 positions since 2014

"Ireland sees drop in attractive work destination rankings"

Ireland now ranks at number 32, coming down six places from number 26 in 2018 and moving from number 19 in 2014.

Dublin has also suffered a fall in the rankings for most attractive cities slipping to 36th place in 2020 compared to 34th in 2018.

Orla Moran, General Manager at IrishJobs.ie, said in a statement: “Most significantly what we see from the data is the continued decline in Ireland and Dublin’s attractiveness as a career destination amongst foreign workers.

“While there is no one clear reason for this decline in Ireland’s desirability, Ireland is now viewed by many as one of the most expensive destinations in the EU and one lacking in sufficient housing stock."

The survey polled a total of 209,000 workers across 190 countries, including 824 employees in Ireland.

https://www.joe.ie/news/ireland-drop-attractive-work-destination-rankings-716691

cnocbui

If prospective job seekers do their research, they would see that Ireland was ranked 33rd out of 36 for tax competitiveness on individuals in 2019.
https://files.taxfoundation.org/20190930115625/2019-International-Tax-Competitiveness-Index.pdf

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Dublin down 12 positions since 2014

"Ireland sees drop in attractive work destination rankings"

https://www.joe.ie/news/ireland-drop-attractive-work-destination-rankings-716691

AmCham and other bodies were flagging this for years. Real challenges for non nationals finding suitable/affordable accommodation in cities. A number of my team are non nationals and had difficulty. Quality also a factor - Looking for big rent on a kip just because of location.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

AmCham and other bodies were flagging this for years. Real challenges for non nationals finding suitable/affordable accommodation in cities. A number of my team are non nationals and had difficulty. Quality also a factor - Looking for big rent on a kip just because of location.

I’d say the primary reason wasn’t location and more to do with the state being willing to pay more rent than what most workers were willing or able to afford or the local council willing to look the other way while the landlord discretely changed their residential investment property into a commercial investment property e.g. AirBnB IMO

Edgware

decreds wrote: »

Suprised Props didn't get there first:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-04/ireland-sees-2-4-billion-hit-from-a-4-letter-word?srnd=premium-europe

Basically Biden is coming after Ireland's corporate tax rate, while i don't foresee it impacting MNCs and their investment by a huge amount, someone will have to pay the piper though.

But I thought that he was a great friend of Ireland

MacronvFrugals

The likes of this does nothing to help either

40% increase in disputes around landlords returning deposits, according to Threshold

The Programme for Government of 2011 outlined the government’s intention to establish a tenancy deposit protection scheme to put an end to disputes regarding the return of deposits.

https://www.buzz.ie/news/40-increase-in-disputes-around-landlords-returning-deposits-according-to-threshold-420536

L1011

Some commentary is expected when dropping links

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

AmCham and other bodies were flagging this for years. Real challenges for non nationals finding suitable/affordable accommodation in cities. A number of my team are non nationals and had difficulty. Quality also a factor - Looking for big rent on a kip just because of location.

My workplace has rented out apartments as a stop gap measure for foreign workers finding accommodation just to give them 3 or 4 months to find something suitable.

PropQueries

According to the Irish Examiner:

“Cork City Council did not take up an offer from the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) to use the entire Elysian tower for social housing because of concerns that it could lead to ghettoisation.”

Not too familiar with the building but I would assume Kennedy Wilson who appear to have bought it for c. €95m in 2018 will be eventually renting them to the council anyway.

Maybe someone can give an insight into its current use. Is it currently in use as luxury lettings or social housing by the back door?

Link to Irish Examiner article here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/property/commercial/arid-40237619.html

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Not too familiar with the building but I would assume Kennedy Wilson who appear to have bought it for c. €95m in 2018 will be eventually renting them to the council anyway.

Why?

JimmyVik

Edgware wrote: »

But I thought that he was a great friend of Ireland

Same as every other president for the last 20 years. Big announcement. Nothing changes

JimmyVik

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

My workplace has rented out apartments as a stop gap measure for foreign workers finding accommodation just to give them 3 or 4 months to find something suitable.

Just before Covid, my company sent a mail around asking could anyone with investment properties for rent in Co. Dublin contact them. A few people did and the company rented their properties off them. They still asked for anyone else whos property came empty to contact them.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

Just before Covid, my company sent a mail around asking could anyone with investment properties for rent in Co. Dublin contact them. A few people did and the company rented their properties off them. They still asked for anyone else whos property came empty to contact them.

The government did say they were for the people who get up early in the morning, they may have forgotten those same people need a bed at night

mcsean2163

Estate agent says huge family interest in this:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-hill-house-tipper-road-naas-co-kildare/2935162

Looks like it'll hit 1.3+ if he's right which is outside our budget. There's like 1/2 houses every so often that match our requirements but there always seems to be huge competition and we lose out.

Any idea why houses like above are so in demand. I'm assuming supply and in 18 months the same type will command a much lower price or am I off the mark?

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Estate agent says huge family interest in this:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-hill-house-tipper-road-naas-co-kildare/2935162

Looks like it'll hit 1.3+ if he's right which is outside our budget. There's like 1/2 houses every so often that match our requirements but there always seems to be huge competition and we lose out.

Any idea why houses like above are so in demand. I'm assuming supply and in 18 months the same type will command a much lower price or am I off the mark?

you have basically explained yourself why its in demand, there are a few people like you that have similar requirements and very few houses that meet them.

as an aside youd want deep pockets to renovate that, it was obviously used as a school or creche or something so the layout is all over the place and one would wonder about the quality of the extension.

i wouldnt pay 1.3m for it in a fit but clearly im not the target audience!

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

AmCham and other bodies were flagging this for years. Real challenges for non nationals finding suitable/affordable accommodation in cities. A number of my team are non nationals and had difficulty. Quality also a factor - Looking for big rent on a kip just because of location.

If Dublin is slipping down the rankings in attractiveness to foreign workers, you'd wonder if the government's left hand is talking to the right.

Successive governments have rightly, and very successfully, pursued a low rates good corporate tax policy to attract FDI. That policy has been so successful it is seen as something of a sacred cow.

On the other hand they have pursued a high prices good housing policy, which has caused numerous problems, one of which is the city is less attractive to foreign workers, and thus presumably foreign companies.

This seems short sighted, particularly at a time when our tax regime is under threat. Irrespective of your position of whether MNCs are here solely for, or partially for, the tax benefits, it follows that the government should be doing everything they can to enhance the attractiveness over and above the tax benefits.

By sending clear signals that they will do everything they can to keep housing costs high they are doing the exact opposite.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

If Dublin is slipping down the rankings in attractiveness to foreign workers, you'd wonder if the government's left hand is talking to the right.

Successive governments have rightly, and very successfully, pursued a low rates good corporate tax policy to attract FDI. That policy has been so successful it is seen as something of a sacred cow.

On the other hand they have pursued a high prices good housing policy, which has caused numerous problems, one of which is the city is less attractive to foreign workers, and thus presumably foreign companies.

This seems short sighted, particularly at a time when our tax regime is under threat. Irrespective of your position of whether MNCs are here solely for, or partially for, the tax benefits, it follows that the government should be doing everything they can to enhance the attractiveness over and above the tax benefits.

By sending clear signals that they will do everything they can to keep housing costs high they are doing the exact opposite.

Can I ask do you honestly think there is a conspiracy theory that our government are trying to keep our housing costs high? If they are why are the left leaning parties in the dail like Sinn Fein and PBP not pulling them up and shouting it from the roof tops?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Can I ask do you honestly think there is a conspiracy theory that our government are trying to keep our housing costs high?

I don't think it is a conspiracy theory. There is plenty of evidence that they wish to keep housing costs high. Policies that started with Noonan openly admitting the aim was to increase house prices have been continued right up until today pushing ahead with the shared equity scheme, apparently deaf to any criticism that it will increase house prices.

fliball123 wrote: »

If they are why are the left leaning parties in the dail like Sinn Fein and PBP not pulling them up and shouting it from the roof tops?

Do you ever listen to the news?!

Sinn Féin housing spokesman, Eoin Ó Broin introduced the Private Members’ Bill (PMB) calling on the minister to remove the Shared Equity Scheme from upcoming housing legislation.

He said: “Fianna Fáil’s developer-led shared equity loan scheme must be scrapped.

“It will increase house prices, saddle working people with debt and line the pockets of big developers with taxpayers’ money. Facing a barrage of criticism from all quarters, this scheme is on its last legs...

...Three decades of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael housing policy has led to ever-higher house prices, ever-higher rents and a growing number of young adults stuck at home are stuck in a rent trap.”

Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien slammed as 'incompetent' and 'arrogant' over new scheme 'that would drive up house prices'

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

If Dublin is slipping down the rankings in attractiveness to foreign workers, you'd wonder if the government's left hand is talking to the right.

Successive governments have rightly, and very successfully, pursued a low rates good corporate tax policy to attract FDI. That policy has been so successful it is seen as something of a sacred cow.

On the other hand they have pursued a high prices good housing policy, which has caused numerous problems, one of which is the city is less attractive to foreign workers, and thus presumably foreign companies.

This seems short sighted, particularly at a time when our tax regime is under threat. Irrespective of your position of whether MNCs are here solely for, or partially for, the tax benefits, it follows that the government should be doing everything they can to enhance the attractiveness over and above the tax benefits.

By sending clear signals that they will do everything they can to keep housing costs high they are doing the exact opposite.

Nail on head

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

If Dublin is slipping down the rankings in attractiveness to foreign workers, you'd wonder if the government's left hand is talking to the right.

Successive governments have rightly, and very successfully, pursued a low rates good corporate tax policy to attract FDI. That policy has been so successful it is seen as something of a sacred cow.

On the other hand they have pursued a high prices good housing policy, which has caused numerous problems, one of which is the city is less attractive to foreign workers, and thus presumably foreign companies.

This seems short sighted, particularly at a time when our tax regime is under threat. Irrespective of your position of whether MNCs are here solely for, or partially for, the tax benefits, it follows that the government should be doing everything they can to enhance the attractiveness over and above the tax benefits.

By sending clear signals that they will do everything they can to keep housing costs high they are doing the exact opposite.

The tax attractiveness is only for enterprise, for individuals, as I posted earlier, Ireland is not attractive, being 33rd out of 36 in tax competiveness for individuals. Individuals are taxed on a whole other level to businesses.

You can only have low corporation tax if you tax the bejusus out of the populace. The money has to come from somewhere, and it's not Apple et. al.

[Deleted User]

schmittel wrote: »

I don't think it is a conspiracy theory. There is plenty of evidence that they wish to keep housing costs high. Policies that started with Noonan openly admitting the aim was to increase house prices have been continued right up until today pushing ahead with the shared equity scheme, apparently deaf to any criticism that it will increase house prices.

1. When was this? Citation?
2. If he did say it, was it back a decade or so ago when house prices had completely collapsed and a rise in house prices would have gotten countless people out of negative equity?

JimmyVik

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Estate agent says huge family interest in this:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-hill-house-tipper-road-naas-co-kildare/2935162

Looks like it'll hit 1.3+ if he's right which is outside our budget. There's like 1/2 houses every so often that match our requirements but there always seems to be huge competition and we lose out.

Any idea why houses like above are so in demand. I'm assuming supply and in 18 months the same type will command a much lower price or am I off the mark?

I'll bet that that is going to be knocked and used to build lots of small houses.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

I'll bet that that is going to be knocked and used to build lots of small houses.

I am generally not a fan of planning restrictions, but this would be an excellent example of where you should use them to prevent such a nonsense.

MacronvFrugals

Interested Observer wrote: »

1. When was this? Citation?
2. If he did say it, was it back a decade or so ago when house prices had completely collapsed and a rise in house prices would have gotten countless people out of negative equity?

From FGs 2011 manifesto, getting the property show on the road(people out of negative equity) was always paramount

hometruths

Interested Observer wrote: »

1. When was this? Citation?
2. If he did say it, was it back a decade or so ago when house prices had completely collapsed and a rise in house prices would have gotten countless people out of negative equity?

1. Take your pick
2. See above.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

1. Take your pick
2. See above.

I think the problem was they didn’t properly plan to control it. Prices did need to increase to attract development. However they didn’t address the knock on effect of increasing land values, planning regs, NIMBYs, mortgages costs (repossessions), and the list goes on

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the problem was they didn’t properly plan to control it. Prices did need to increase to attract development. However they didn’t address the knock on effect of increasing land values, planning regs, NIMBYs, mortgages costs (repossessions), and the list goes on

In political economy terms, its all about that base...

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

By sending clear signals that they will do everything they can to keep housing costs high they are doing the exact opposite.

Why do we think they continue to do it

Is it that they expect more votes from pursuing this policy. That a highly questionable tactic right now
Or
Their links to private business ie implementing policy that benefit their own kind regardless of who suffers from it

Hubertj wrote:

I think the problem was they didnâ€™t properly plan to control it. Prices did need to increase to attract development. However they didnâ€™t address the knock on effect of increasing land values, planning regs, NIMBYs, mortgages costs (repossessions), and the list goes on

Are you sure all of the above was not part of the plan. The only effective measure that was in some way successful in controlling it is the mortgage rules and they have continually tried to nullify them