DataDude wrote: » I think it was a little worse than stagnant. Saw some figures of -3 to -5% in the premium end. But even if we assume stagnant, whilst those people are still generally employed. I don't think too many have seen a mega boost to earnings from COVID-19 that will, in the long term, allow them to borrow more than they would have been able were COVID not to have existed?That's why I struggle to see a longer term trend suddenly being favorable after a period of being very static.
TobyHolmes wrote: » i'm not sure what you mean by your comment but even if prices are rising in those countries there are still alot more property options and commutable areas then we have here in Ireland so an increase in prices affects ireland drastically - we are only a small small market compared to those other countries you list - with the exception of New Zealand
thefridge2006 wrote: » https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/moneylenders-are-creeping-into-middle-income-areas-tds-are-told-40098022.html UH OH..... but we're grand, we'll be propped up forever and things won't get any worse...
Marius34 wrote: » There are many components why this happens. Here are some of the main components: 1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor) 2) WFH 3) Reduced concerns on Brexit 4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020) 5) HTB 6) Increased Build-2-Let 7) Increased Social Housing 8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns. ...
cnocbui wrote: » Prices are rising in the US, UK, Australia and NZ. But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend.
DataDude wrote: » Again, not denying there is a clear upward trend in prices currently. But if anything your list would reinforce to me that the primary drivers at play at the moment very much short term effects. If all we read is to be true and house prices were stagnating in 2019 due to affordability limits being reached on demand side. I can't see how any of the below are going to dramatically enhance the demand side outlook in the coming years (i.e. average earnings are not going to massively increase) 1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor)Short term demand side impact. Not a sustainable long term change in buying power. 2) WFHPotential change in the type of demand but not directly improving overall demand side, although argued by some here, would be more likely to lead to demand moving from supply constrained areas to less supply constrained areas 3) Reduced concerns on Brexit Fair point, although not like the Brexit outcome was fantastic. Also talk around election time was that nobody actually seemed to care. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/don-t-mention-the-b-word-brexit-barely-figures-as-an-election-issue-1.4167398 4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020)Would explain bounce back in late 2020 for sure, but I'm talking versus 2019. Not sure how people could be more economically confident now than late 2019. 5) HTBIncrease of €10k a factor for sure 6) Increased Build-2-Let Not sure 7) Increased Social HousingNot sure 8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns.Short term supply side effect which is what I think is currently the biggest factor at play along with number (1) above
Yurt! wrote: » There's more to the world than anglo-countries you know. These are the countries with the most liberalised financial sectors and 'hands-off' attitude from governments. It's primarily a cultural problem as well as an economic and social one, as evidenced by your dismissive post. It's no surprise that Anglo countries are experiencing this issue most acutely. If you want to take these countries as 'the world', go ahead. But you're highlighting the worst in class, and I'd rather Ireland not go down that road when there are clear alternatives how to approach this problem if there was the political will to do so.
Marius34 wrote: » I thought it wasn't clear to you why it's starting to go upwards after the stability on previous 2-3 years. The reasons I listed is why there is likely upwards trends for now & 2021&2022. Not long term ones.
Sierra Oscar wrote: Assuming demand collapses. Do you see that happening? First-time buyers are fueling the demand, I don't really think that demand will fall away too easily. They still want a place to live.
decreds wrote: » Where do you get your information from? Please link evidence to such bizarre claims.US: House-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-januaryhttps://www.msn.com/en-gb/finance/other/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-january/ar-BB1dj1bD
Cash sales tend to take place at the higher end of property market chains and include larger type houses in the country so the Land Registry shows the greatest increase and the highest average price. The Halifax and Nationwide statistics are based only on transactions involving a mortgage. Typically about a third of sales are for cash and this proportion is even higher in retirement areas. The Nationwide index is statistically weighted to compensate for this so we have the Land Registry saying prices have risen 7.6% and Nationwide closely shadowing this saying 7.3%. Halifax is much lower at 6% although the Halifax average price is higher than the Nationwide’s. What they all agree is that 2020 saw a significant increase in house prices.
Existing home sales in 2020 hit highest point since 2006, but listings are at a record low Published Fri, Jan 22 202110:00 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Jan 22 202110:26 AM EST Pandemic-driven demand sent total 2020 home sales to the highest level since 2006. Closed sales of existing homes in December increased 0.7% from November to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.76 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 22% stronger than December 2019. ... Still, even the most avid buyers are bumping up against barriers in today’s housing market. Record low supply and record high prices are limiting the exceptionally high demand.
Prices have dropped in the big cities as people flee for bigger "safer" havens. This is reason behind any increase in sales but prices are not rising.
UK: UK Property prices fall in January as property market runs out of steamhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-house-prices-average-latest-halifax-b1798414.html
The average UK house price ended 2020 at a record high of £253,374, it has been estimated. The Halifax House Price Index showed that house prices in December were 6% higher than in the same month a year earlier. But the month-on-month price increase of 0.2% was significantly down from the 1% increase seen in November.
Australia: The property market in OZ is literally the worst model to follow. It is at the tail end of a massive bubble that is heavily reliant upon mining and propped up by massive debt. Nearly everyone i know in OZ who owns property is up to their eyes in debt, it is not sustainable.https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debtsNZ: Prices are in fact dropping. Shock horror 3/4. National median prices were down 2 per cent from December
Debt per Citizen 42,327 € Debt as % of GDP 67.96%
Debt per Citizen € 15,498.2 Debt as % of GDP 48.39%
Australia’s house prices soar to record highs over 2020 Sue WilliamsDomain Reporter Jan 28, 2021 National house prices leapt to new record highs at the end of 2020, scotching dire predictions that COVID-19 would trigger a complete collapse of the market. With the median house price in Sydney now at an all-time peak of $1,211,488, Melbourne’s at $936,073 and Canberra’s at $855,530, every capital city recorded massive growth over the past year.
House prices rise nearly 20% in a year to median $725K 9:56 am on 12 November 2020 House prices have increased 19.8 percent year-on-year with the median now at $725,000.
To quote yourself "But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend" . I wonder if Ireland will be so special and go against the international trend which is facing the biggest recession in history. I find it ironic that you called out a poster who historically uses data to back up their claims with no actual data lol. Hilarious
decreds wrote: » Exactly, terrible housing markets to model. What's even worse is prices are actually falling in 3/4 countries lmao. That post should not be taken seriously.
Q3 2020: Global house price boom strengthens, despite Covid-19 crisis Matthew Montagu-Pollock | December 07, 2020 During the year to Q3 2020: House price increases strengthened in many countries in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Canada and the US during the year to Q3 2020. Real house prices (i.e., prices adjusted for inflation) rose in 43 out of the 55 world’s housing markets which have so far published housing statistics. The more upbeat nominal figures, more familiar to the public, showed house price rises in 45 countries, and declines in only 10 countries.
cnocbui wrote: » Try some of my links above - it's a global trend, mate, and not confined to evil 'anglo' countries. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are better places to live, IMO, than Ireland. So what's your criteria for worst in class? I could do with a laugh.
Yurt! wrote: » Tell you what mate, I could get stuck in and make you look rather silly on your OECD stats from your Google-fu, but you're just one of those posters. I've a cheese toasty ready and I'm mid way through a Netflix series. Find someone else to coax into your playpen.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » You know its going bad when TD's tried to pressure the ESRI into not saying the shared equity scheme would push up prices, thankfully they did say it anyways.TDs deny they tried to 'pressure' ESRI to withdraw criticism of Affordable Housing Billhttps://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227935.html
PropQueries wrote: » They really laid into that poor ESRI employee today: “ESRI officer defends comments on housing scheme amid Government pushback” “Independent Senator Victor Boyhan welcomed the institute’s input. “I don’t believe you set out to upset people but I do believe you have given us a dose of reality,” he said.” Talk about blaming the messenger. They must be really worried the whole housing market is built on sand to be this angry about what should basically be just another insignificant report IMO Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/esri-officer-defends-comments-on-housing-scheme-amid-government-pushback-1.4486703
poker--addict wrote: » In all 3 examples gov will provide greater assistance for apartments, and the upper limit for apartments is higher than homes. Why? I am sad to read we are promoting 485,000 euro apartments. Our policy makers are obsessed with apartments. I wonder how many of them have raised a child in the shoebox size apartments we endorse in Ireland? These equity schemes should get families into family homes. If we want more families to be raised in apartments then change regs to insist on larger units, we are doing the opposite.
combat14 wrote: » varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html
jill_valentine wrote: » In theory, we do need lots of apartments, because single people, particularly men, are overrepresented in homelessness figures, and removing the rent incentive to wedge 9 people into a three bed would go a long way. But the government consistently develops schemes that serve only to raise the cost of housing, and units in that kind of price range are useless except as safe deposit boxes. Mid range 1 and 2 bed apartments are exactly what need rn and they're like gold dust.
hmmm wrote: » Yeah, we need lots more apartments and density in general. There is this obsession with "housing for families" when there are vast numbers of single people and couples who also need somewhere to live and don't want to live in a semi-d with a big commute. The demographics are suggesting that we will have a lot more 2 person households in the future, I think McWilliams keeps going on about this. Not every housing unit has to have room for kids, a garden and a pony.
