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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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awec

Greenlights16 wrote: »

Agree with poster above.

Dublin has most definitely NOT a whole pile of things to do, most are weather reliant which is hilarious considering the climate we live in.

What this pandemic has showed us is that once you take the pub and restaurant culture away from Dublin, most notably the pubs, it’s sucked the life out of it completely.

People are much more in love with coastal areas and countryside villages around the country now, and as the poster above has said, this is going to be for the long term because of the reality of permanent WFH.

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

As much as our own government want to try and keep everything in Dublin, this juggernaut is not going to stop. All for the better. The country will develop much more as a whole

Dublin has a lot more to do than anywhere else. Any suggestion to the contrary is rubbish. We're roaming into the realm of alternative facts here.

In the same post you say Dublin hasn't a lot to do, and yet complain that the government wants to keep everything in Dublin. In your own post you are inferring there is nothing outside of Dublin. It's completely contradictory.

Cyrus

gourcuff wrote: »

seems to be alot of dublin exceptionalism on the thread, a bit of travel can broaden the mind they say, or even some research...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/global-liveability-index-2019-most-liveable-cities-in-the-world.html

But we are comparing dublin to other places in ireland, not to vienna,

whats your point?

Greenlamp21

The quality of life in Cork city is far superior to Dublin

No need for public transport as you can get in your car, wonderful beaches and seaside towns in close proximity, no issues with gangs and massive heroin problems

A far superior place to raise children

Runs....

Villa05

wassie wrote:

Yes - but typically as you head towards your 40s you are also moving towards peak earning capacity which means 3.5 times extra borrowing capacity for every extra euro.

How would a bank see a 40 year old couple with a couple of kids

fliball123 wrote:

Why are people Dublin bashing. I just dont get it. Working from home or not Dublin offers the below

I don't think anyone is Dublin bashing, more cost of living bashing
Dublin's number 1 attraction is the jobs, and variety of people.
Having a variety of people implies a variety of interests. Many of those niche, growing interests may be better fulfilled in other locations throughout the country eg the great outdoors

fliball123 wrote:

Name one other county in the country that can compete with this?? Dublin is a desirable city to live in no mater what the working dynamic is

Most of the interests you listed are taxpayer funded and maintained

Crazy that a government can allow entities to control and collect rents tax free that benefit greatly from this infrastructure

Walk away with the profits and contribute nothing

gourcuff

Cyrus wrote: »

But we are comparing dublin to other places in ireland, not to vienna,

whats your point?

it might need broader perspective, wfh might mean work from a different city/country. This could also impact on property prices. It might not just be dublin v cork or cork v limerick.

Dublin isn't ranked high on the liveable cities index is my point, the exceptionalism displayed seems to ignore this point.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you believe so. So for three times a week, that's 150 times a year.

What exactly did you do with your family 150 times a year in Dublin City?

Maybe they meet their friends for a pint.
And then you have their kids and other half. They probably meet their firends too, without the poster being along.
Thats another thing though. It would be a long aul trip to meet the mates for a pint when you relocate.
Not to mention that a whole group of friend could be traveling into the city center from the different burbs for to meet for that pint.

jill_valentine

wassie wrote: »

I have no idea what that means?

Banks make a limited number of exemptions and don't offer them to the vast majority of average earners. You need to be earning very well, well enough that an exemption will ultimately not be the difference between whether you buy or not - only which property you buy.

Haven't come across these threads were this has been in issue except for people in their late 40s & 50s buying their first home, not 30s.

Sure length of mortgage does affect buying power. But I would think if you are in your 30s and reliant on length of mortgage in order to buy, I'd say its not gonna happen until you improve your salary &/or deposit.

It makes the difference of a few thousand, which at the low end of the market can be the cushion you need over asking to secure a property. And if property prices continue the ever upwards trajectory, that couple of thousand sooner can be worth a lot more in real terms than the deposit or rise in earnings you *might* garner in the meantime, bearing in mind the economic conditions. And in the meantime, you're still throwing away rent money that will never be yours again.

Oymyakon

Was having a browse through daft this morning and saw lots of rural apartments on the market for ~80k, however many appear to already have tenants.

If one was to have a remote work job and didn’t mind small town life, are these a good deal? Not a lot else that a single person earning a below average wage can afford.

jill_valentine

Oymyakon wrote: »

Was having a browse through daft this morning and saw lots of rural apartments on the market for ~80k, however many appear to already have tenants.

If one was to have a remote work job and didn’t mind small town life, are these a good deal? Not a lot else that a single person earning a below average wage can afford.

Be very wary of "tenant in place" properties, there is usually a story there. It's generally being sold cheaper than it might be because the tenancy is considered a liability one way or the other.

If you can work remotely though, you could be sorted provided a) you're confident you will continue to be able to work remotely, and b) local broadband services are stable. b) isn't always a given in small towns, particularly in the West.

JimmyVik

Timing belt wrote: »

you could live in Cork and fly to London for the same cost as getting the train to Dublin.... London has the London Eye and you can't get that in Dublin :D

Everyone will have different drivers as to where they want to live... I know people that have their wife and kids in Cork but live in Dublin Monday - Friday because of Jobs... For these people it is a no brainier. You then have single people that have a chance to buy that they may not have had before.. you may have a family with young kids where the childcare cost are as much as mortgage that could move near family that could help out with childcare. You may have people that just don't like Dublin because all they can afford is a less desirable area with horses roaming the streets.

Likewise you will have people that think that rural living will be great as they have can afford a big house... but that is not much use if there is noting else around and you can only go to the pub once a week cause that's the only time it opens or get used to the fact that it takes 30 mins to get a pint of milk or a loaf of bread. Then again they may love the idea of it and grow a greenhouse.

It will be a personal decision and there is no right or wrong. Even if 10% of FTB left it would hardly make a difference to the Dublin housing market as Demand is strong and supply so weak.

Something we forgot.
You can live in Dublin and get to all these things in an hour without a car.
You might be able to do that in Cork.
You certainly wont do it in Castlebar

Dont know about Leitrim.

JimmyVik

Oymyakon wrote: »

Was having a browse through daft this morning and saw lots of rural apartments on the market for ~80k, however many appear to already have tenants.

If one was to have a remote work job and didn’t mind small town life, are these a good deal? Not a lot else that a single person earning a below average wage can afford.

If you are from the town they probably would make sense.
But remember if you leave Dublin for say, Longford, you have a life to construct all over again, but in a small town.
You have to make new friends, new hobbies, be happy with sfa to do.
Its not just a matter of buying cheap. You are essentially moving your life.
Its not like renting, where you can just stop renting and go back to Dublin.

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

If you are from the town they probably would make sense.
But remember if you leave Dublin for say, Longford, you have a life to construct all over again, but in a small town.
You have to make new friends, new hobbies, be happy with sfa to do.
Its not just a matter of buying cheap. You are essentially moving your life.
Its not like renting, where you can just stop renting and go back to Dublin.

Anyone considering moving to a town in the country where they don't have family or friends just because house prices are cheaper should really rent for a year first just to see what it is like.

Oymyakon

Totally valid points about moving one’s entire life. Seems pretty difficult to ever be able to afford to live in Dublin outside my parent’s home!

Cyrus

gourcuff wrote: »

it might need broader perspective, wfh might mean work from a different city/country. This could also impact on property prices. It might not just be dublin v cork or cork v limerick.

Dublin isn't ranked high on the liveable cities index is my point, the exceptionalism displayed seems to ignore this point.

you cant wfh for an irish co in another country

so again what is your point?

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

you cant wfh for an irish co in another country

so again what is your point?

That actually, for a lot of people, Dublin doesn't offer much that can't be found in a medium sized town, apart from work or other people. It just offers them on a bigger scale. It is effectively a big town rather than a distinct city ecosystem vs the other capitals it can be compared to. It does not have a ton of unique elements you can slap on the roof and say "this is why it's worth having to spend your pension on rent someday". That's a consequence of having reshaped it as a place to work in, rather than live in.

If I sit down and try to think of any actual tangible things about Dublin that can't be got in any town within an hour of Dublin on the train, all I can think of off the top of my head are Deliveroo and gay bars.

Everything else is a little foggy and abstract vs owning a home.

Timing belt

jill_valentine wrote: »

That actually, for a lot of people, Dublin doesn't offer much that can't be found in a medium sized town, apart from work or other people. It just offers them on a bigger scale. It is effectively a big town rather than a distinct city ecosystem vs the other capitals it can be compared to. It does not have a ton of unique elements you can slap on the roof and say "this is why it's worth having to spend your pension on rent someday". That's a consequence of having reshaped it as a place to work in, rather than live in.

If I sit down and try to think of any actual tangible things about Dublin that can't be got in any town within an hour of Dublin on the train, all I can think of off the top of my head are Deliveroo and gay bars.

Everything else is a little foggy and abstract vs owning a home.

I wouldn't be relying on Irish rail or public transport if I was considering moving out of Dublin... Its far to unreliable or non-existent except in the cities.

jill_valentine

Timing belt wrote: »

I wouldn't be relying on Irish rail or public transport if I was considering moving out of Dublin... Its far to unreliable or non-existent except in the cities.

I'd be reasonably confident of rail for social or occasional office purposes. You'll notice I never suggest moving out to anywhere you'd be reliant on bus transport though :pac:

wassie

Villa05 wrote: »

How would a bank see a 40 year old couple with a couple of kids

Same as a couple in the 20s or 30s with a couple of kids.

Age doesn't come in to serviceability with regards to kids.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

I wouldn't be relying on Irish rail or public transport if I was considering moving out of Dublin... Its far to unreliable or non-existent except in the cities.

Public transport in Dublin only means something if you don't have a car.

It's incredibly bad and doesn't take you near anywhere you may wish to actually go i.e. it's basically a to b and that's it. It's not like the tube in London. If you're not living in a and your destination is not b, then you're going to drive to your destination like most people in Dublin do as public transport really isn't an option.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Public transport in Dublin only means something if you don't have a car.

It's incredibly bad and doesn't take you near anywhere you may wish to actually go i.e. it's basically a to b and that's it. It's not like the tube in London. If you're not living in a and your destination is not b, then you're going to drive to your destination like most people in Dublin do as public transport really isn't an option.

I agree and it is even worse or non existent outside Dublin with the exception of cities.

gourcuff

Cyrus wrote: »

you cant wfh for an irish co in another country

so again what is your point?

the premise you set that 'we are only comparing dublin to other parts of ireland' is a bit narrow.

Its a city, a city which does not rank high on liveable city rankings, (a direct measure of comparison amongst cities), dublin exceptionalism seems a little strange when this is considered.

[Deleted User]

gourcuff wrote: »

the premise you set that 'we are only comparing dublin to other parts of ireland' is a bit narrow.

Its a city, a city which does not rank high on liveable city rankings, (a direct measure of comparison amongst cities), dublin exceptionalism seems a little strange when this is considered.

Its not strange at all. You cannot legally WFH in a different country. So the question is Dublin vs elsewhere in Ireland.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Public transport in Dublin only means something if you don't have a car.

It's incredibly bad and doesn't take you near anywhere you may wish to actually go i.e. it's basically a to b and that's it. It's not like the tube in London. If you're not living in a and your destination is not b, then you're going to drive to your destination like most people in Dublin do as public transport really isn't an option.

This is also not true.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

If you are from the town they probably would make sense.
But remember if you leave Dublin for say, Longford, you have a life to construct all over again, but in a small town.
You have to make new friends, new hobbies, be happy with sfa to do.
Its not just a matter of buying cheap. You are essentially moving your life.
Its not like renting, where you can just stop renting and go back to Dublin.

Oh, boo, hoo. This is the third country I have lived in and I'm aiming for a fourth - just need to sell some property and for governments to wake up to the truth about this pandemic...

Try moving countries. 160 km down the road is nothing.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

Oh, boo, hoo. This is the third country I have lived in and I'm aiming for a fourth - just need to sell some property and for governments to wake up to the truth about this pandemic...

Try moving countries. 160 km down the road is nothing.

But some people are more settled than you seem to be.
Ive lived in lots of countries. I only go to the pub or out with my mates once every couple of weeks. But most people I know, it would be important to them to keep the social contacts that they already have.

It might matter to them that they have to travel 160km for a pint with their mates that they've had all their lives.
It might not matter to some people but im betting that it matters to most Irish people. Especially families.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Public transport in Dublin only means something if you don't have a car.

It's incredibly bad and doesn't take you near anywhere you may wish to actually go i.e. it's basically a to b and that's it. It's not like the tube in London. If you're not living in a and your destination is not b, then you're going to drive to your destination like most people in Dublin do as public transport really isn't an option.

You can catch a bus in Limerick or Nenagh and get off at O'Connel or Dublin Airport. My son has used it a lot. It deviates shockingly from it's schedule but it functions.

My travel plans went awry once and I had to catch a flight into Cork. Just hopped on a Bus to Limerick and I was where ai needed to be. For shorter bits there are taxis.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

You can catch a bus in Limerick or Nenagh and get off at O'Connel or Dublin Airport. My son has used it a lot. It deviates shockingly from it's schedule but it functions.

My travel plans went awry once and I had to catch a flight into Cork. Just hopped on a Bus to Limerick and I was where ai needed to be. For shorter bits there are taxis.

You arent selling public transport in rural Ireland very well cnocbui

Hulk Hands

fliball123 wrote: »

Why are people Dublin bashing. I just dont get it. Working from home or not Dublin offers the below

Higher number of schools
Higher number of hospitals
Higher number of sporting venues
Higher number of options for gigs/concerts
Higher number of options for accommodation
Higher number of colleges and more prestigious colleges
Higher number of musems/galleries
Higher number of historical locations.
Higher number of shopping locations
Higher number of civil/public sector worker jobs - a lot that cannot be done with WFH
Better roads
Airport
Seaports
DART line and other Rail links
Luas Lines
More Bus lines
Dublin's History
Unique Coast line going from Balbriggan to Bray and everywhere in between.

Dublin has more going for it than some give it credit for. Just to name a few attractions off the top of my head that other major cities in the world would love to have

Croke Park, Aviva stadium, Guinness Store house, O2 Arena, Kimanham Gaol, Phenix park/Zoo, Temple bar, Trinity College, GPO, Christ Church, St Patricks cathedral, Dublin castle, Grafton street. There is also a plethora of pubs around the place that have amazing food and lots of craic to be had on a night out. Not to mention the many parks from St Annes to Stephens Green

Name one other county in the country that can compete with this?? Dublin is a desirable city to live in no mater what the working dynamic is

Ah cmon now! Every major city in the world has stadiums, arena's, uni's, churches and shopping streets. They're hardly unique to Dublin and ours hardly beat the average fare even, as much as I love Croker for one. Serious reach to say other major cities would love to have them.

I'm on the pro Dublin side and im currently buying here, mainly as I want to spend the duration of my 30's at least having good entertainment options, good restaurants, proximity to the airport and general Urban living. People could easily turn around with a list like yours detailing Dublin negatives though also, with many obvious springing to mind. Or sneering at some of the pro's given like better roads, history, nightlife or coastline, all of which are debatable compared to some of the other small Irish cities

klose

House in town listed at 175, current bid 215 after not even a week on the market, it dosnt even have a BER cert available as they're waiting still to get it done. Nice conversion and front and back garden but they're old houses.

optogirl

There's a very panicky feeling at the moment - seems like the worst time in years to be trying to buy. It's making me think we're better off renting