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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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PropQueries

hmmm wrote: »

SF's plan to fill the place with council housing estates isn't the answer. We tried that before and it was a disaster, it's not going to be different this time.

What needs to happen is reform of the planning system, remove the influence of NIMBYs and other objectors, and build where people want to live. The demand is there, the supply isn't.

I don't think that argument washes anymore, if it ever did IMO.

The DLR council was very happy to rent all the apartments at Herbert Hill in Dundrum for 100% social housing. It seems that developments comprising 100% social housing are now only acceptable if there's a fund at the end collecting the inflated rents that the local councils (on my behalf and at my cost) have signed up for IMO

HansKroenke

cnocbui wrote: »

The furore I caused a year or so ago when I first suggested that. I was told to get lost.

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.

I know it is not realistic unfortunately but when it comes to a discussion about stripping down the public parks for housing, I think it is only fair to highlight the, in my personal view, high number of golf clubs within the M50 when land values are at a premium. My experience is that the members do not realise just how elitist their privilege of being a member in such clubs actually is.

PropQueries

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the better solution is to get rid of golf clubs inside the M50 and use that land for parks and housing / new villages within Dublin.

Plus the golf members of these clubs proved during the celtic tiger years that they are more than happy to sell their local amenity to a developer once the price is right. Same with the farmers in Co. Dublin e.g. that farmer in North Dublin who sold his land for a new prison during the boom years.

If the land is truly needed, compulsory purchase it at agri/amenity prices and rezone it to housing after purchase.

Sweet.Science

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think that argument washes anymore, if it ever did IMO.

The DLR council was very happy to rent all the apartments at Herbert Hill in Dundrum for 100% social housing. It seems that developments comprising 100% social housing are now only acceptable if there's a fund at the end collecting the inflated rents that the local councils (on my behalf and at my cost) have signed up for IMO

With outgoings like this every year now for at least 30 years where is all the money going to come from ? Also bricklaying isnt huge in Dublin . There is already Cisk and Hegartys working on social housing (small developments ) over the last 2 years

Firstly . Where to we get all the extra builders from ? Secondly , if it takes over 2 years to get a few hundred apts built how can they be done en masses to make any dent in the housing crisis we are in ?

Brussels Sprout

Cyrus wrote: »

the people in early to mid 20s didnt take the pain though.

Depends on what type of of pain you're referring to. They didn't get caught with Celtic Tiger mortgages like a lot of people in their 40s and they didn't have to emigrate like a lot of people in their 30s had to . Many of them are in a situation though where they're finding it impossible to move out of home due to a combination of extortionate rents and low paid jobs despite, on average, being more educated than previous generations. With Covid they can't even emigrate so they're stuck.

Timing belt

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Not really on subject but wanting to ask. Do you/anyone see over short-med term that interest rates rise again?

They will only rise if we see inflation above 3% for a year so. We will see some inflation the next time the CPI is released in Europe but that will mainly be driven by the reversal of the German vat cuts so will add 1% onto what it really is. Oil has also recovered so we may see 0.5% increase in the next year but I can't see it going over 1-1.5% and don't see interest rates rising in the next 2/3 years. IMO

HansKroenke

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Not really on subject but wanting to ask. Do you/anyone see over short-med term that interest rates rise again?

Whether intended or not by Central Banks, there are signs in the investment publications that inflation is going to make a comeback, meaning low interest rates likely to persist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/u-s-10-year-inflation-breakeven-advances-to-highest-since-2014?sref=ZMFHsM5Z

PropQueries

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Depends on what type of of pain you're referring to. They didn't get caught with Celtic Tiger mortgages like a lot of people in their 40s and they didn't have to emigrate like a lot of people in their 30s had to . Many of them are in a situation though where they're finding it impossible to move out of home due to a combination of extortionate rents and low paid jobs despite, on average, being more educated than previous generations. With Covid they can't even emigrate so they're stuck.

Any pain my generation went through was 100% caused by my generation. So don't feel sorry for us IMO The generation before me went through a lot of hardship. My generation took everything offered to us and blew it. It's not the people in their teens, 20s, 30s or 40s fault so they should start demanding reductions in our pensions and all other benefits we receive but never paid or paid very little into the system for.

While it may sound weird me advocating for this. I believe the longer this nonsense persists, the more that's going to be taken from my generation through pension cuts, loss of services etc. I'd rather go through that now than in my 80s when I've no fight left in me IMO

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

Not as accountable as they used to be! (by their superiors)

Accountability is not a concept even remotely touched on in the Irish psyche, in fact, the reverse is an ongoing theme in Ireish culture. Wrongdoing by chieftans is to be rendered invisible, like water flowing around a rock in the stream; what rock? Libel laws are the final back-stop should anyone be so out of step and uncouth as to mention there being a rock.

Gee, this childrens hospital thing is a mess, lets hold an inquiry, the first written guidline and guiding princple of which shall be that no blameworthy individuals will be identified or mentioned and no blame is to be assigned.

In other countries I could mention, enquiries usually have the opposite aims and intent.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Any pain my generation went through was 100% caused by my generation. So don't feel sorry for us IMO The generation before me went through a lot of hardship. My generation took everything offered to us and blew it. It's not the people in their teens, 20s, 30s or 40s fault so they should start demanding reductions in our pensions and all other benefits we receive but never paid or paid very little into the system for.

While it may sound weird me advocating for this. I believe the longer this nonsense persists, the more that's going to be taken from my generation through pension cuts, loss of services etc. I'd rather go through that now than in my 80s when I've no fight left in me IMO

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

That is State Pensions, and excludes PS pensions.

Geuze

cnocbui wrote: »

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.

There are one-storey houses within maybe 600m of O'Connell street.

Crazy.

MacronvFrugals

Geuze wrote: »

That is State Pensions, and excludes PS pensions.

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

Timing belt

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

635k x 248 x52 = 8.2bn

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

As far as I know, it does indeed include the public sector pensions from an article I read a while ago. So, about half of this annual pension bill goes to the civil servant/public sector pensioners. Open to correction on this one though. If it doesn't, then the annual unfunded pension bill is far more scarier than I thought.

I'll try find the right article, but this below article states that the cost of public sector pensions in 2018 was €3.6 billion in 2018. So near enough half the total spend.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cost-of-public-sector-pensions-surges-to-150-billion-1.4437809

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

Your chart is DSP expenditure.

PS pensions are not paid out by the DSP.

For example, a typical teacher's pension of 700 pw is paid by the DES, not the DSP.

It is included in the DES pay and pensions bill.

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

All people over 66 do not get a State Pension.

I know plenty who don't.

The 8bn is broken down as follows:

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

https://assets.gov.ie/86167/66194a05-82f8-480f-8be0-4350e1218a62.pdf

2019 data

SP contributory = 5.6 bn
Widows/widowers = 1.6
Non-con = 1bn

MacronvFrugals

I'm sorry but BAM should be restricted from future state projects, this is becoming a farce

Children's Hospital won't be ready until May 2024

Speaking at this afternoon’s PAC hearing, chair of the National Paediatric Health Development Board (NPHDB) David Gunning spoke in stark terms of the difficulties that the board has experienced, in its view, while dealing with the principal contractor on the €1.7bn budgeted project BAM.

Mr Gunning said that the “lack of advancement” in the project is attributable due to “under-resourcing on the project by the main contractor”.

He said that at the end of 2019, the project had progressed 8.5% through its construction plan when it should have progressed 22%.

More than €300m in additional claims have been received from the contractor, he said, with the board deafening each of those “robustly”.

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

As far as I know, it does indeed include the public sector pensions from an article I read a while ago. So, about half of this annual pension bill goes to the civil servant/public sector pensioners. Open to correction on this one though. If it doesn't, then the annual unfunded pension bill is far more scarier than I thought.

I'll try find the right article, but this below article states that the cost of public sector pensions in 2018 was €3.6 billion in 2018. So near enough half the total spend.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cost-of-public-sector-pensions-surges-to-150-billion-1.4437809

The above is false.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

635k x 248 x52 = 8.2bn

So, the real annual state pensions bill is c. €10 billion per year?

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

The above is false.

Then, that makes the annual figures significantly worse?

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

The 8bn is broken down as follows:

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

https://assets.gov.ie/86167/66194a05-82f8-480f-8be0-4350e1218a62.pdf

2019 data

SP contributory = 5.6 bn
Widows/widowers = 1.6
Non-con = 1bn

2019 SA pensions, non-con = 94,854 recipients
2019 SI pensions = 554,485 recipients

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

So, the real annual state pensions bill is c. €10 billion per year?

Give me a few mins.

Here we are, 2018 PS pensions:

https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/9.-Public-Service-Occupational-Pensions-in-Ireland-Cashflow-Analysis.pdf

2017 = 3.4bn PS pensions

2020 est = just over 4bn

I think it's reasonable to say 2020 combined State and PS pension is over 10 bn, and towards 12 bn.

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

Give me a few mins.

According to the Irish Times back in December 2020:

"An analysis undertaken for the Government said the annual gross cost of public sector pensions would rise from €3.4 billion in 2017 to €5.3 billion in 2025. The rise reflects the ageing of the public service – in line with the general population – the fact people are living longer and the pension rules which apply to those taken on before 2013."

So, by 2025, if the state and public sector pensions are added together, we're probably talking about an annual spend of c. €13 - €15 billion per year by 2025.

I still think the current c.€8 billion includes the public sector pensions as otherwise it's more unsustainable than it is already.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/q-a-what-is-the-story-with-the-cost-of-public-sector-pensions-1.4438799

Geuze

I can 100% tell you that DSP exp on State pensions is 8bn, and that does not include PS pensions.

The DSP 8bn is all explained in the DSP Annual Stats.

(NB: it is part of my job to read these things)

So total public exp is = DSP exp on State Pensions PLUS each department exp on retired PS from that dept.

So total public exp on pensions = DSP 8.1bn + exp on PS pensions

A current working or retired PS, hired before April 1995, did not pay full-rate PRSI, and so do not receive State pensions.

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

So, by 2025, if the state and public sector pensions are added together, we're probably talking about an annual spend of c. €13 - €15 billion per year by 2025.

Yes, correct.

To give you an idea of the scale we are talking about, with no annual increase in the SP contributory, expenditure rises by 200m anyways, due to numbers and ageing.

Bear in mind that FF and SF want to add 5 per week / 260 pa, on top of that, every year.

(550,000)(260pa) = 143m for the rate increase

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

Yes, correct.

To give you an idea of the scale we are talking about, with no annual increase in the SP contributory, expenditure rises by 200m anyways, due to numbers and ageing.

Bear in mind that FF and SF want to add 5 per week / 260 pa, on top of that, every year.

(550,000)(260pa) = 143m for the rate increase

At least we now know where all that additional revenue from the carbon taxes is going to go. Looks like we also now know the true reason why FF/FG brought the Greens into the coalition. Nice smokescreen IMO

L1011

Topic. Can everyone remember that concept please.

Timing belt

DataDude