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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

Thanks, hadn't seen that. Great news.

Ain't it odd how those prolific posters on this thread never seem pick up on these "MNC creates more jobs in Dublin" headlines. But when same MNC says they want to create a market place/area, to presumably further attract people to the brand/location etc. etc. it is spun as "they are shutting down shop, get ready!".

One year on from when all this started it's become farcical.

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

Why aren't they opening this up in Eastern Europe wages are cheaper there.... Oh wait I have worked it out they will have the jobs in Dublin and the staff will WFH in Greece.. oh wait that is not allowed so something else will crash the housing market.

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

But, you said months ago Google and all the other MNCs will be leaving, gone! They'll ride off into the sunset and property will be crashed back to 08.

These articles go against that, does it not?.

It is also quite similar it seems to what google have done in other bases such as SF, where they have a mix of office, housing and recreational areas.

Doesn't scream to me that they are looking to exit Ireland, as you have previously predicted.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

But, you said months ago Google and all the other MNCs will be leaving, gone! They'll ride off into the sunset and property will be crashed back to 08.

These articles go against that, does it not?.

It is also quite similar it seems to what google have done in other bases such as SF, where they have a mix of office, housing and recreational areas.

Doesn't scream to me that they are looking to exit Ireland, as you have previously predicted.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

Where are you seeing they project less travel between offices ?

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Not sure if this was in the original plan or if it’s down to requiring less future office space due to WFH, but, according to the Irish Independent:

“Tech giant Google has secured planning permission to transform ground floors of two of its towers at its €300m development at Boland’s Mill into a market-place to facilitate local food and craft businesses.”

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/google-gets-green-light-to-build-new-urban-quarter-40029003.html

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

The degree of setting expectations of the cost of renovations sky high was my point rather than who is going to buyit

I’m not sure what exactly your point is.

PropQueries

Not sure if this was in the original plan or if it’s down to requiring less future office space due to WFH, but, according to the Irish Independent:

“Tech giant Google has secured planning permission to transform ground floors of two of its towers at its €300m development at Boland’s Mill into a market-place to facilitate local food and craft businesses.”

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/google-gets-green-light-to-build-new-urban-quarter-40029003.html

PropQueries

According to the SBP:

“Properties on Henry Street and Grafton Street lost between a quarter and a third of their value during 2020, with rents down by up to 21 per cent.”

Isn’t it Irish Life who own a good few of the units on those streets? I think they’re tough negotiators in relation to rents so I wonder will they be taking a more lenient approach going forward?

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/property-insight/value-of-grafton-street-stores-fell-by-a-quarter-in-2020-2b7cb1de

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

hardly relevant, someone on the average salary wont be buying it.

The degree of setting expectations of the cost of renovations sky high was my point rather than who is going to buyit

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

someone will buy it eventually but it wont be someone on 40k a year

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

If its for sale since 2012 like another poster mentioned, i don't think anyone's buying it.

someone will buy it eventually but it wont be someone on 40k a year

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

hardly relevant, someone on the average salary wont be buying it.

If its for sale since 2012 like another poster mentioned, i don't think anyone's buying it.

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

7 years average salary....

hardly relevant, someone on the average salary wont be buying it.

HansKroenke

In long-term arrears? So they are living for free when there are people who would step in and pay the mortgage. Turf them out.

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times today:

"AIB sells 620 distressed mortgages to ‘ethical’ investment group... The bank’s Project Iris portfolio, which contains 620 owner-occupier mortgages in long-term arrears, has been sold to the Home Solution Initiative group, which has pledged to find borrower-friendly solutions to the outstanding arrears problem."

Most are expected to end up in the Government’s mortgage to rent scheme.

"The Home Solutions Initiative consortium comprises debt collection agency Everyday Finance, London-based investment group LCM Partners and the Irish-based Home for Life group."

David Hall of iCare stated a few weeks ago: "Because Home for Life can potentially sell the properties for a profit after leasing the home to the local council for a 25-year period, it can pay higher prices than the approved housing bodies at the outset, he claimed."

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-sells-620-distressed-mortgages-to-ethical-investment-group-1.4471100

Link to article on David Hall' view in Irish Times three weeks ago: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-to-rent-scheme-undermined-by-commercial-entity-claims-david-hall-1.4455789

TobyHolmes

Xoo2 wrote: »

I think that house in Carpenterstown has been for sale (on and off) since 2012 if I remember correctly. The area is really nice (we are actually looking to purchase nearby) good schools, parks, train, bus, phoenix park, etc. It probably needs about 300k of work though to bring to standard which is factored into the price.

maybe it haunted?

Villa05

Xoo2 wrote:

I think that house in Carpenterstown has been for sale (on and off) since 2012 if I remember correctly.......... .
It probably needs about 300k of work though to bring to standard which is factored into the price.

7 years average salary....

Reins

https://bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Q4-2020-for-web.pdf

Mortgage Drawdowns Q4 2020

JimmyVik

awec wrote: »

For free? Yes.

If I had the guts of a million euro to spend on a house I would definitely not buy that thing though.

I'll have it if you dont want it

Xoo2

I think that house in Carpenterstown has been for sale (on and off) since 2012 if I remember correctly. The area is really nice (we are actually looking to purchase nearby) good schools, parks, train, bus, phoenix park, etc. It probably needs about 300k of work though to bring to standard which is factored into the price.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

anyway back to property

i wonder what the story with this place is, there is almost certainly a story

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/huntington-outfarm-castleknock-dublin-15-castleknock-dublin-15/4480969

the boards posse have already been on the case

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2058038040

A pool probably devalues it more. I presume they are expensive to run so a new owner has to factor that into the open costs of the house or deal with getting rid of it?

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

Real stink of tiger McMansion off that thing.

its been left for quite some time, lot of damp.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

would rather a McMansion as apposed to a McShoebox... If you were offered it for free would you not live there?

For free? Yes.

If I had the guts of a million euro to spend on a house I would definitely not buy that thing though.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Real stink of tiger McMansion off that thing.

would rather a McMansion as apposed to a McShoebox... If you were offered it for free would you not live there?

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

anyway back to property

i wonder what the story with this place is, there is almost certainly a story

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/huntington-outfarm-castleknock-dublin-15-castleknock-dublin-15/4480969

the boards posse have already been on the case

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2058038040

Real stink of tiger McMansion off that thing.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

What, he is never wrong Sometimes I think he must be a politician in real life. The way politicians get caught out on a lie and just continues on like nothing happened.

It must inspire great confidence that those same people have so much control over the property market

Onwards an upwards heh!

djan

DataDude wrote: »

Also saw this yesterday and couldn't work it out at all! Seems too good to be true. Comments on other thread re. planning for apartments would make sense.

On the topic of too good to be true - this was on the market for a long time a 950 (seems to have gone sale agreed in last couple of days). I have no desire to live in an apartment or in Saggart...but wow!
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/504-swiftwood-saggart-co-dublin-d24-nn63/4446109

That is stunning, would be some place to work from home in!

JimmyVik

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

It's trivial to pull logs from a VPN which identify the source log in country you're coming from.

In fact i know this happens, our place offers managed networking as a service and over the last 6 months many requests have came in from clients wanting to know where users are and specifically "users outside of Ireland" i presume this is for tax purposes like other posters mentioned.

We have someone else working from the UK since Covid started, but he didnt tell management. They are happy enough as long as they dont know he is living abroad.
Its the ones who actually told them they were living abroad that have the problem. I think its to do with revenue, more so than the company.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

not so sure on that either while it certainly holds more appeal at this stage you may already have kids in school and career aspirations that wont be met by moving away,

we looked at it and decided to stay put

Or did one member of the family put the foot down

Seriously though, even the kids when they hit the teenage years will not want to move away to the country. And it probably wouldnt be good to uproot them at that age either.