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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

No joy - awkward out the gates, ran keen a lot of the way, and seemed to get caught on heels a few times. What might have been, if she broke in front... Done well enough; all things considered to come 4th Mops Gem, but 4th no good to any of us who were on

[Deleted User]

26/01

Running P & L + 18.8pts

Invested 6pts

Returns - none

Total in play 6pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 6pts

Running invested total - 1,312 pts

Total P & L + 12.8pts

[Deleted User]

6.50 Kempton Makambe 7/1 e/w

Although far from a massive price, am taking a chance on Chelsea Banham's horse here. Out of form for a while, but came a respectable 3rd lto at Southwell. He never seems to get beat too far distance-wise when raced and beaten over C & D, is a previous winner over track and trip, and I'm hoping this generally held up performer can be staying on fast enough at the end to finish in front. Not one for massive faith, but it's at a 'thread type' price, and the competition don't appear to be up to much.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

27/01

Running P & L + 12.8pts

Invested 6pts

Returns - none

Total in play 6pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 6pts

Running invested total - 1,318 pts

Total P & L + 6.8pts

[Deleted User]

28/01

3.55 Giogiobbo 8/1 win

Methinks the outsider of 5 could be good enough to take this Class 3 sprint at Southwell. Ornate should take them off at a blistering pace, and Luke Morris, if he can keep tabs, or be close enough to the pace can prevail here on the bottomweight. The going is Standard to Slow, and he has a good piece of form from over C & D on New Year's Day when ridden by Cam Hardie, and finishing 2nd to another of the candidates here, in the shape of Thegreatestshowman. That race was clocked in a fast time for similar conditions regards the going. There was plenty of pace on that day, as there will most likely be today. The winner that day was rated 2lbs higher than the selection, and now is rated 5lbs higher, so he should be able to make up that half a length that he was beaten on Jan 1. The selection has ran 3 times since then over C & D in lesser grades, and not ran as well (was ridden by an apprentice those three times). The last of those races was just two days ago, so I would be hopeful that he has taken his recent exertions well; else why send him racing again in such a short period of time? I think the combination of his light weight, a fast pace to aim at, and a strong jockey to urge him can give Giogiobbo a great chance of getting his nose in front where it counts to give him his first win in England, and only his second ever since his first win 2 1/2yrs ago in France.

[Deleted User]

Thyestes Chase 3.25 Gowran

Spyglass Hill 8/1 e/w , Class Conti 14/1 e/w

A very hard race to even find one that a solid case can be made for over any of the others to even fill one of the 5 places. The pick here came 2nd and first the last two times he ran at the track. Those were over 2 1/2 miles, and the first of those were in a fifteen runner affair where he won, so handles big fields. Has won a chase over 3 miles on heavy going, so the trip should be okay. Is prone to the odd jumping error, and hasn't performed very well thus far in Grade A events. Nonetheless, he's still only eight, and with a clear round Spyglass Hill should go close under Rachael, who has yet to add this race to her CV.

Will also do Class Conti, who came 2nd in this last year. He's only had 2 runs since then, and both have been rubbish. Mikey Fogarty resumes the partnership for only the second time - the first of which was that 2nd in this feature event today. A wait and creep ride like the one he got last year may see him staying on past beaten rivals at the end.

Would have liked to have been able to find a big priced massive outsider that could at least place here, but I would be highly surprised if anything bigger than 33/1 makes the frame; not least because there's currently only 5 in this at bigger than 20/1 - but that's just my opinion

Gluck anyone trying to solve this puzzle

[Deleted User]

Galmoy 2.20 Gowran Darasso 8/1 win

Came 5th in this two years ago. Is a course winner, and has only ever won at two miles in Ireland (1 hdles race, and 1 chase). A 2m 3f winner in France before he changed hands, but is owned by JP, so can't completely rule him out, plus he came 5th in this race 2 years ago. At the price it's win only, as there's a lot to take on faith and trust.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

28/01

3.55 Giogiobbo 8/1 win

Methinks the outsider of 5 could be good enough to take this Class 3 sprint at Southwell. Ornate should take them off at a blistering pace, and Luke Morris, if he can keep tabs, or be close enough to the pace can prevail here on the bottomweight. * The going is Standard to Slow, and he has a good piece of form from over C & D on New Year's Day when ridden by Cam Hardie, and finishing 2nd to another of the candidates here, in the shape of Thegreatestshowman. That race was clocked in a fast time for similar conditions regards the going. There was plenty of pace on that day, as there will most likely be today. The winner that day was rated 2lbs higher than the selection, and now is rated 5lbs higher, so he should be able to make up that half a length that he was beaten on Jan 1. The selection has ran 3 times since then over C & D in lesser grades, and not ran as well (was ridden by an apprentice those three times). The last of those races was just two days ago, so I would be hopeful that he has taken his recent exertions well; else why send him racing again in such a short period of time? I think the combination of his light weight, a fast pace to aim at, and a strong jockey to urge him can give Giogiobbo a great chance of getting his nose in front where it counts to give him his first win in England, and only his second ever since his first win 2 1/2yrs ago in France.

* Going appears to be 'Standard' now; but nonetheless, the later he makes his challenge (if the race pans out like I think- or hope

) , he has a proper chance here I feel. The last thrice :pac: he tackled C & D on the usual going he took the lead over 1f out in 2 out of those 3 races, only to be caught late on. I still think that his light weight and jockey will see him prevail in this, as he's capable of putting up a fast time at the minimum trip at Southwell, and wouldn't be winning out of turn.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Galmoy 2.20 Gowran Darasso 8/1 win

Came 5th in this two years ago. Is a course winner, and has only ever won at two miles in Ireland (1 hdles race, and 1 chase). A 2m 3f winner in France before he changed hands, but is owned by JP, so can't completely rule him out, plus he came 5th in this race 2 years ago. At the price it's win only, as there's a lot to take on faith and trust.

No joy there - only 4th. Looked like he had a chance about 2fs out, when making up some ground, but run flattened out.. Not good enough sadly..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

REMINDER AP BETS - Dates put up
AP selections put up on 06/01 , 11/01 & 15th January.

25/01 This next one for:

Sky Bet Handicap Chase Doncaster Saturday 30th Jan.

Kalashnikov 14/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4)

Update for P & L taking the above AP horse into account.

28/01

Running P & L + 6.8pts

Invested AP 2pts Kalashnikov for Sky Bet Chase Donc. 2pts

Returns - none (horse not declared)

Loss 2pts

*Running invested total - 1,320 pts

*Not counting today's points yet.

Total P & L + 4.8pts

[Deleted User]

Another pick so for the Sky Bet at Donny.

It's past declaration stage, so not Antepost no mo :P Perhaps some books still have it AP, but shouldn't imo.

Anyway, with no more to do.

3.15 Doncaster Saturday Boldmere 16/1 e/w (*1/5 1-2-3-4)
*Subject to rule 4s, and only 3 places if less than 12 go to post, unless normal terms are taken ie 1/4 odds 1, 2 ,3 , there should be 4 places a fifth on offer. Been a long time though since a race like this didn't have some books offering extra places, so been a while since normal/rules of racing terms were standard across the board.

Anyhoo, this horse of Caroline Bailey's goes well at C & D. The grade and going (likely soft) combined are a bit of a concern to be sure, but there's enough to like at the prices for me at least...

Been a major plunge on the jolly Cap Du Nord (5/2 Fav) in this.. Was about 10/1 or so a couple of weeks ago for this iirc.. I can see why he's fancied, as it was a very good run at Kempton lto.. In 19 chase starts he hasn't won beyond 2m 6f, and never on proper soft going. He could be a slowburner, and can't rule him out, but wouldn't be for me.

JP's Canelo (5/1 Gen) has been supported as well - not sure what price he was when I first checked the betting, but I think he was close to double figures, or maybe even 12s. Am not liking him either. Won well at Wetherby lto, but in a slow time.

Not saying my selection will finish ahead of both of these (esp the fav) , but I don't see why he can't get involved for one of training's lesser lights..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

28/01

3.55 Giogiobbo 8/1 win

Methinks the outsider of 5 could be good enough to take this Class 3 sprint at Southwell. Ornate should take them off at a blistering pace, and Luke Morris, if he can keep tabs, or be close enough to the pace can prevail here on the bottomweight. The going is Standard to Slow, and he has a good piece of form from over C & D on New Year's Day when ridden by Cam Hardie, and finishing 2nd to another of the candidates here, in the shape of Thegreatestshowman. That race was clocked in a fast time for similar conditions regards the going. There was plenty of pace on that day, as there will most likely be today. The winner that day was rated 2lbs higher than the selection, and now is rated 5lbs higher, so he should be able to make up that half a length that he was beaten on Jan 1. The selection has ran 3 times since then over C & D in lesser grades, and not ran as well (was ridden by an apprentice those three times). The last of those races was just two days ago, so I would be hopeful that he has taken his recent exertions well; else why send him racing again in such a short period of time? I think the combination of his light weight, a fast pace to aim at, and a strong jockey to urge him can give Giogiobbo a great chance of getting his nose in front where it counts to give him his first win in England, and only his second ever since his first win 2 1/2yrs ago in France.

No joy

[Deleted User]

28/01

Running P & L + 4.8pts

Invested 6pts

Returns:

3.25 Class Conti (done e/w at 14/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3.8pts

Total in play 6pts - returns 3.8pts

Loss for the day 2.2pts

Running invested total - 1,326 pts

Total P & L + 2.6pts

[Deleted User]

29/01

The hope they'll hit picks for Friday

Lingfield
2.55 Siavash 50/1 e/w

Doncaster
3.45 Spot On Soph 22/1 e/w. To get a first(?) winner with first runner for S England (son/daughter/brother/sister/husband/wife/cousin? Seems to be a trainer change with this one, and it appears at least to be the first one that this trainer's sending out ) who's taken over from Sam England - by the looks of things anyway..

Wolverhampton
5.15 Kodi Koh 14/1 e/w
8.15 Nellie French 8/1 e/w , Valentine Blues 8/1 e/w

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

29/01

Running P & L + 2.6pts

Invested 10pts

Returns:

8.15 Nellie French (done e/w @ 8/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 20p rule 4 returning 9.6pts

Total in play 10pts - returns 9.6pts

Loss for the day 0.4pts

Running invested total - 1,336 pts

Total P & L + 2.2pts

[Deleted User]

30/01

Already put up Boldmere a few posts back....

A few that may, or may not give me a run for my money.. Will hope they do

Kempton

2.00 To Be Wild 33/1 e/w
2.35 Inclyne 12/1 e/w
4.55 Dusty Damsel 13/2 e/w , Porto Ferro 16/1 e/w
5.30 Mercurist 15/2 e/w

Gluck

[Deleted User]

3.30 Lingfield Mohareb 13/2 win

Has never won over a mile, but can clock a fast enough time, as demonstrated in his 3rd lto over C & D. A bit to take on trust with this one, as he will most likely need a strong steady pace to aim at (hopefully he settles, or barring that the jockey decides to make all himself). 7 runners go to post, so could quite possibly be tactical. If it is tactical, and it's not him in front, one would have to fear for his chances. Nonetheless, there are none with obvious outright claims here; with the fav and bottomweight Catch My Breath going up two grades since his win in a Class 5 just a few days ago. That was on the back of another C & D win just 5 days previous to that in a Class 6.

The trainer Mick Appleby is having a good run of form, and the Trainer/Jockey combo are 3 from 17 in recent times. He's never won over a mile, but he hasn't had many chances at the trip; looks as though he's well capable of staying the trip, and winning, and crucially - for one with his profile - he's a decent price, and could well go off a couple of points shorter.

Will do for me, and seems a win only proposition. The fact that there are only 2 places on offer didn't leave for a lot of headscratching re him being an EW poke.

[Deleted User]

30/01

Running P & L + 2.2pts

Invested 13pts

Returns:

4.55 Dusty Damsel (done e/w @ 13/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 9.8pts
5.30 Mercurist (done e/w @ 15/2) places at a fifth the odds with a 25p rule 4 returning 2.1pts

Total in play 13pts - returns 11.9pts

Loss for the day 1.1pts

Running invested total - 1,349 pts

Total P & L + 1.1pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

26/01

5.10 Wolves Finoah 16/1 e/w
I like this race, as I think cases can be made for plenty, thus contributing to making this one a good price. Looking at it, it seems that a lot of these like to lead or race prominently. The selection is drawn in the 4 box, so hopefully the jockey Jane Elliott can get the rails position early, with many of the protagonists duelling it out wide early to get to the front. Horse is 0 from 5 at the track, but did come third here 2 runs back over C & D (also drawn 4 that day) in a Class 4, in a fast time. This will be only the third time the horse has tackled this trip at the track, and it's his third time in a row tackling it today, so is also perhaps unexposed. The 7lb claiming jockey Poppy Fielding was on top for those two attempts, and both were Class 4s. I'm also thinking that the trainer feels the drop in grade will be to Finoah's advantage, and wants a more experienced jockey on top, even if it means more weight on it's back. At a price that I feel is possibly double what the selection will go off at I'm happy to have a go here.

A precautionary inspection in the morning, so hope it passes.

Deleted User wrote: »

No joy with Finoah... Never even got a 'run for our money' there

Next time, or the time after that for him... :cool:

I'll reply to this post, and say 'WD' , 'good picking' etc... should he oblige at anything resembling "a working/unemployed - man/woman/any of the other 98 genders' price" :pac:

Aftertiming in advance :pac:

Mrs Barclay's isn't exactly fancied in the 6.10 - out to 9/1, but hopefully that won't stop the mare from passing the lollipop stick in front

Runs in the next - the 7.10 at Southwell. Into a Class 6 for the first time, but it's over a mile at Southwell. Has seen some money, but not for me tonight...
Think the 11/10 shot Thrave can't really be opposed.

Next time out for Finoah then for me

Hope I'm not eating them words in 15/20 mins :pac:

[Deleted User]

03/02

2.50 Lingfield Anniemation 12/1 e/w

Having his third run for new trainer B Barr. This 4yr old was previously with Mrs Barclay, and had nine runs for her, with just the one win; which was over 7 on turf. That was in a maiden at Musselburgh as a 2yr old, and he subsequently received a rating of 77. He's now down to 52. Has only ran once at Lingfield, and that was over 7fs on his first run for Barr... He was doing his best work at the end coming 5th, which suggests that the mile here will suit.. He's drawn ten here in this 11 runner affair; so should be able to get settled out the back if that's the plan. He did however run a poor race lto at Kempton over a mile on standard to slow going, where he was always out the back, and finished almost last.. Will have to draw a line through that race, and give him a chance of getting his second win on his second attempt at a track he must go well at.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

03/02

Running P & L + 1.1pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Total in play 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,351 pts

Total P & L -0.9pts

[Deleted User]

05/02

Lingfield
1.40 Dynali 14/1 e/w
3.40 Cafe Milano 9/1 e/w

Newcastle
5.15 Billyfairplay 40/1 e/w
6.15 Giogiobbo 18/1 e/w

Gluck

[Deleted User]

05/02

Running P & L -0.9pts

Invested 8pts

Returns - none

Total in play 8pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 1,359 pts

Total P & L -8.9pts

[Deleted User]

06/02

1.11 Lingfield Aberama Gold 13/2 e/w , Exalted Angel 16/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

06/02

Running P & L -8.9pts

Invested 4pts.

Returns:

1.11 Exalted Angel (done e/w) wins at 20/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 26pts.

Total in play 4pts - returns 26pts.

Profit for the day 22pts

Running invested total - 1,363 pts

Total P & L + 13.1pts

[Deleted User]

A step in the right direction today. Will take a 'punt' in the bumper tomorrow:

4.40 Leopardstown Mare Quimby 66/1 e/w.

Am hoping she'll race closer to the pace than her last two races, as this is how she won her first bumper. She will need to settle a bit to make her presence felt in this company however. It's her fourth run tomorrow, and her biggest challenge to date.

Just the one runner in this for Noel Meade in a race where Willie has 7, and Gordon two, so I think if it goes tactical she won't have much of a chance from off the pace. Her first race she won racing prominently, and while not fully settling, she still managed to win. I think she's been racing since that race at the back of the pack to try to teach her to run at an even tempo throughout. After 2-3 furlongs if she's lobbing along nicely at, or close to the front, I feel her backers could see her put up a bold showing. All the better if she sees some support.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

Another one for the AP list

Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)

10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.

Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.

Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..

Deleted User wrote: »

Reserve Tank 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
Well, he has an entry, and was alright over the sticks a while back - hasn't ran in over a year though.. A big priced winner in this last year too,

I think these are the sum total of my AP selections put up so far, that haven't bitten the dust yet.

Put them up on the 06, 11, and 15th Jan I think.

These on the 06/02:

Eurotiep 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Ballymore Cheltenham.

Saint Sam 10/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4) Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham.

[Deleted User]

^^^

All of the above are AP. I see Santini's gone out to 14/1 (NRNB) for the Blue Riband event; presumably on the back of a poor enough run today. A good bet I would think if he turns up, and if he doesn't it's money back. I don't think he would have liked the heavy going today, plus he made a bad error at the 8th I think.

Anyway, it's the above prices and terms that count for the thread, but better ground and Cheltenham makes 14s at nrnb look good to me. Can forgive him one poor run......

[Deleted User]

1.10 Leopardstown Heaven Help Us 22/1 e/w

With 5 places on offer, this Paul Hennessy mare has a very good chance here on her best hurdles' form. Been running over the larger obstacles exclusively for the last 5 months or so, with her last run over the sticks in the Supreme last March, when finishing about 30 lengths behind Shishkin. No shame in that, as the ground was close to heavy, and she didn't have the smoothest of passages..

First time cheekpieces, plus an apprentice who takes 7lbs off on board - it will be the first time since her bumper days that she's had a weight alleviation from the pilot, and she looks fairly handicapped to boot.. Has a second placing at the course behind the talent Abacadabras at the end of 2019 over 2 furlongs shorter on soft to heavy ground; so there's a lot to like.

Was inspired to have a look at this one, when a mod put her up on the main horsey forum, but that's okay, as I've mentioned before

There's a few of us on this site expecting a bold showing :pac:

[Deleted User]

4.05 Southwell Cable Guy 15/2 win

Looks a Mickey Mouse race this (nowt Mickey Mouse about a 15/2 winner if our luck's in tho :pac:) ; with the exception of the Fahey odds on jolly, the other 4 don't look up to much here. Ali Stronge's Acquisitor perhaps has the second best piece of form on show here from his second last run, when staying on at the business end over the minimum at the course. He's had 8 goes though without winning, so I think the race is between Double Dealing and the selection Cable Guy, who's the only one in this 6 runner field having its first race..

He's also the sole runner at the track for both jockey and trainer Stevie Donohoe and Charlie Fellowes, so he must have a chance based on that alone. His sire Cable Bay had a winner last weekend, and that one was Big Narstie at Lingfield on his debut. I may elect to have a win w/o fav when that market opens up; if his current price holds up, but it's a win bet here for thread purposes. If he's as good as I hope he possibly might be, then the only danger is the fav, so unless 2-place betting is within a half point or so of win w/o fav price, then the without market is favoured as a saver. No point in each way I think, because it's either nowhere on his first run, or win/go very close to the favourite.

Gluck all

A goodish day on the box for sportsfans with the final rounds of the snooker shootout on Eurosport, the Luge World Cup, Ski Jumping World cup, and Cross-Country Skiing also, which are on Eurosports 1 and 2. For those who like golf the last rounds of the European and PGA tours are also on today on the golf channel , and soccerball fans are well catered to with three live matches on; the pick of which would be Liverpool v City.

Am also looking forward; if am awake :P to the yankee showpiece the NFL Super Bowl LV (reminds me of that classic 90s tune Gangsta's Paradise by Coolio, which featured a great turn by L.V. - might could be part of the half-time entertainment

Wonder what the odds on that are, although it's probably been preselected well in advance ). Was checking out da odds between The Chiefs and The Buccaneers, and the one that stood out (for daftness, and not value reasons

) was the last play being 'Taking The Knee' (FFS) at 1/2 iirc

:eek:

.

Coolio was about 90% right imo.. Lyric shudda went been spendin' all our lives living in the gangsta's paradise .. Still, he musta known a thing or two - he half predicted a 'Black President' ; well he referenced it anyway, so that counts as a favourable mention

regards Nostradamus type sheet :pac:

What's da World coming to with dat sorta nonsensical absurdity. I can see Mahomes 'taking the knee , and no doubt multiple MVP and Super Bowl winner Tom Bradyyy will also fall victim to this dumb fad, if 'The Buccs' are last to get a down..

Can't wait for the bookies to open, if only so I can scream at the telly (whether I have a bet or not :pac:) because the lunacy and cabin fever with this lockdown is getting to me

Enjoy whatever yis decide to view today on t'box, cos there's fuq all else ta do