PropQueries wrote: » i.e. no real demand if the state isn't involved.
Cyrus wrote: » whats real demand? people who need somewhere to live, the state wont be leaving them empty.
PropQueries wrote: » Given the reported number of vacant units in these luxury new built apartment developments (I'm referring to at least two articles stating same in the SBP over the past year), it would appear that, at current asking prices/rents, that the only real demand for these units is from the state.
TobyHolmes wrote: » True. Renters/Buyers don't need to live in the city anymore because of the pandemic - Demand is falling. Meanwhile - the supply is rising. and what does supply and demand theory tell us? That the price will fall.
Graham wrote: » You're assuming supply increases to the point where it is greater than demand. Far from a foregone conclusion.
Graham wrote: » It's not though. We have some facts. Supply has fallen, that's not an assumption.
TobyHolmes wrote: » empty apartments though are part of the supply - are they not?
Thargor wrote: » Supply in Limerick is absolutely shocking, 3 months of no change.
Subutai wrote: » Those reports should be taken with a grain of salt. They are based entirely on looking at the RTB register of tenancies. Anyone who has been a landlord knows how inaccurate that can be. I would also wonder how many of those apartments are in long term contractual relationships with corporate clients for short term lets for their employees. Those are probably "empty" right now, but they'd still be turning a profit. I know at least one person who is occupying an apartment in the docklands on the basis of such an arrangement, which would not appear in the RTB database.
TobyHolmes wrote: » surely they would have force majeure clauses in their leases in order to break the lease rather than paying $$ for corporate apartments that will likely remain empty for at least another year
Subutai wrote: » Drop in the ocean, particularly for the firms I know have at least a couple of these apartments. The idea is to have the flexibility, and unfortunately a surprising amount of business travel is still going on. Of course they may well have ended such arrangements, but whether they have or not those apartments will always appear as vacant if you base your article on the RTB database. The business post were doing that before covid also. The person I know is there as he and his wife had to return from one of the foreign offices when covid got too bad there.
Graham wrote: » If there are empty apartments coming to the market, I'd say they were supply. There's certainly a few arriving into the rental market. I don't see any significant supply of apartments outside of that.
Idbatterim wrote: » I have several mates who broke their balls to get a house over the last year or two and will vote sf, as just be cause they ate now over the line, doesn't make what is happening acceptable for them or their family, friends etc. Its a total disgrace
schmittel wrote: » I think the problem is they are not coming to the market.
Timing belt wrote: » I think some of them are on the market but are to expensive. Kenny Wilson have a occupancy rate of 93% at Q3 2020 which meant 145 units vacant and I would wager that the main driver of this being vacant is the price. The also have 456 units in lease up in Clancy Quay - Phase 3 & Capital Dock. I suspect that these may have been completed and are still being classified as lease up while the drip feed them to the market. And then they have 991 units in development at the moment in 3 different builds. All the above apartments seem to be advertised on Dafthttps://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116073242&postcount=2768
TobyHolmes wrote: » so how is it financially viable then? Deep corporate pockets?
PropQueries wrote: » My guess would be they’re the equivalent of the zombie companies in the United States (I think I read somewhere it’s near c. 30%) and EU who are only still trading due to being able to borrow at low interest rates. If they sell the apartments, where can they park the proceeds? So, if the majority are wrong about interest rates remaining at current levels for the next few years and they do rise, it’s Armageddon. If they’re right and they remain at current levels, then they can keep them vacant at no real opportunity cost as long as there’s no real vacant property tax in the near future. I’ll refer to Timing Belt on that one to see if my viewpoint is in the ball park?
Timing belt wrote: » No not at all this is how the properties would have been planned to be delivered when the plans for the project were drawn up. It is common practise that they drip feed the properties to the market. Whether there is someone willing to pay the price for them is another story. Yes if rates do rise without economic growth then there will be Armageddon but there is no sign of inflation yet... In fact Europe is still fighting deflation.
PropQueries wrote: » I’m not sure. If we take glenveagh’s marina development in greystones as an example. They were built and had no buyers. Then they dropped their prices by c. €100k. Still no buyers. Now, they’ve just sold them in bulk to a fund. The same fund that bought the Herbert Hill development in dundrum to lease to the local council at up to c. €3,000 per month over 25 years. If there was no state back-stop (buying or leasing them), a lot of these developments may have gone under IMO. So, I don’t buy the story that they’re somehow being smart and playing a drip feeding game at the moment. My experience is that developers don’t wait as they know and have experience of the market tanking unexpectedly and at very short notice and generally take what they can get for their units as soon as possible. Well, that was the old way.
Timing belt wrote: » If they did that they would not maximise profit.... "Lease up schedules assist real estate developers by providing a basis for forecasting when a property will generate income. Lease up schedules for multifamily properties generally last around 12-15 months from initial lease to stabilization. By the end of the lease up schedule, the property is determined to be “stabilized”, or operating at a regular vacancy level." p.s. This is industry standard when it comes to renting out a big apartment block.... Its not a story I am trying to sell you :P
Cyrus wrote: » Explain how marina village would have ‘gone under’? Gone under what exactly
