Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

downcow wrote: »

The gfa was transformational in that the british, Eu, American and Roi governments recognised the right of the people of ni to self determination and this was agreed by majorities of the people in Roi and ni. Fantastic reassurance of the legitimacy of OWC for any who were doubting it.
Sounds like we are all happy.

So when the GFA ensured the Irish Sea border and your separation from Britain and economic alignment with Ireland and the EU, all the subsequent crying from Unionists, that was only pretend, you were really happy undeerneath it all?

Ok.

:D:D

Junkyard Tom

downcow wrote: »

Excellent post. Realism.

Realism is the post-Brexit Irish Sea Border. Realism is the stitching together of Ireland economically, socially, and psychologically. Realism is that Ireland has leveraged its membership of the EU, and teamed up with its allies in the US, to prevent the British from dividing our people again.

Realism is that the UK is in disarray, divided, and disintegrating while Ireland is acting with the singular purpose of limiting the damage to Ireland, all of Ireland. Realism is that there is one direction of travel in all of this and that journey just got turbo-charged by the DUP's failed gamble on reversing all of the above.

[Deleted User]

It often doesn’t do to talk too much about this stuff in the north, or at least as a southerner I don’t feel comfortable talking to Protestants about it in many circumstances. But when I do I sometimes get the feeling that unionists are only really starting to get their heads around the fact that a United Ireland could happen.
It’s not that they’re in denial, they just haven’t thought of it. Now this isn’t scientific, but I suspect they are an awful lot more open to it than their leaders. A lot of them would quite understandably hate to see the likes of Adams celebrating a UI though.
If it does come about unionists need to be helped, it’d be a shock to their identities if they are not treated very sensitively. I think they would be though, certainly far more sensitively than the Catholics have been in NI.

Kermit.de.frog

The decoupling of NI from the UK market is continuing at pace and it's big and small businesses...they need to adjust supply chains.

https://twitter.com/theethicaldairy/status/1353785732633145344

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1354172750391365633

downcow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The decoupling of NI from the UK market is continuing at pace and it's big and small businesses...they need to adjust supply chains.

https://twitter.com/theethicaldairy/status/1353785732633145344

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1354172750391365633

It’s sort of win win.
If supply chains become as difficult as some of you suggest then it will trigger article 16 and the demise of the ni protocol. If they don’t get as bad as you suggest then we are all happy and have best of both worlds.

downcow wrote: »

It’s sort of win win.
If supply chains become as difficult as some of you suggest then it will trigger article 16 and the demise of the ni protocol. If they don’t get as bad as you suggest then we are all happy and have best of both worlds.

This has been completely debunked by numerous sources. The DUP once again are leading people to the top of a hill on which they will perish.

Article 16 is not, therefore, a route to the unilateral disapplication of the Protocol. The main means by which part of the Protocol can be disapplied is the democratic consent mechanism in Article 18 which requires a majority of members of the Northern Ireland Assembly, if asked, to provide their consent for the continued application of Articles 5-10. A first vote is expected towards the end of 2024.

Nor is Article 16 a route to unilateral suspension of the Protocol. Even if it were triggered, the Protocol’s provisions continue to apply, and this includes on monitoring and enforcement. Both parties can still be held to their obligations and so, in respect of UK obligations to implement EU law in respect of Northern Ireland, EU infringement proceedings.

downcow

downcow wrote: »

It’s sort of win win.
If supply chains become as difficult as some of you suggest then it will trigger article 16 and the demise of the ni protocol. If they don’t get as bad as you suggest then we are all happy and have best of both worlds.

I don’t disagree that the supply chains are messy. I would probably wait to see it settle down before challenging it but I think ordinary unionists are growing more impatient and probably won’t wait.

downcow wrote: »

You misread unionists.
The paradox which cannot be solved is that if unionists get involved in negotiating a fairer outcome for their people in a hypothetical united island , then they do two things
1) they start to make the unforeseeable, highly unlikely, begin to look l possible and look like something unionists would consider
2) any successes in those negotiations would make a vote for a United ireland more likely

In reality unionists should be encouraging republicans to go as harsh as possible which makes a UI vote even more unlikely. So their demands currently for Irish signs in unionist areas etc is good for increasing further the anti UI vote.

Ironically the more unionists can accommodate the greening of ni the less likely a ui. And the more nationalists green ni the less likely a UI

You might be onto to something there! It reminds me of "the Shinners" staying out of the Scottish independence votes. Constantly saying it is not their business. They also played it cool on Brexit (almost like they let Unionist walk into a trap set by Conservatives), and once that trap was sprung they engaged in the Brexit debate about the border.

I agree with you on trying to green N.I.

There is no need for it, demographics and "realpolitik" will be the driving force for the future of both these Islands.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

You might be onto to something there! It reminds me of "the Shinners" staying out of the Scottish independence votes. Constantly saying it is not their business.

THat is an extension of there 'abstensionist' stance which is actually based primarily on not involving themselves in running other countries more than the refusal to take an oth to the Queen.

They also played it cool on Brexit (almost like they let Unionist walk into a trap set by Conservatives), and once that trap was strung they engaged in the Brexit debate about the border.

Not defending SF here but that is alos wrong. Read the Dáil debates after Brexit was first suggested. As soon as it was you will see SF arguing for Special Status against a Kenny government which was dismissing the idea. The EU even at ne point voted against it. What the SHinners did was convince Dublin of the need and more importantly, lobbied the EU on the special circumstances and the border issues in NI.
Then, IMO they pulled a masterful political move (by accident or design) Having convinced Dublin they allowed Irish people in the north to look to Dublin as their protectors and defenders of the GFA and we can see the results. By that stage Unionists had done the damage themselves.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This has been completely debunked by numerous sources. The DUP once again are leading people to the top of a hill on which they will perish.

I think you are missing the point.

Sinn Fein have been crowing for quite some time that the Brexit outcome was their idea. The huge issues that have arisen North and South around supply chain issues better go away quickly or they will have some explaining to do. Many of the cheerleaders on here joined in, doubt we will see them explain.

The government in the South have been clear for a long time that the Brexit deal isn't a good one, that there would be problems. An awful lot of slow learning taking place around the implications of Brexit, and it isn't just the Brits who are having to do the slow learning.

blanch152 wrote: »

I think you are missing the point.

Sinn Fein have been crowing for quite some time that the Brexit outcome was their idea. The huge issues that have arisen North and South around supply chain issues better go away quickly or they will have some explaining to do. Many of the cheerleaders on here joined in, doubt we will see them explain.

The government in the South have been clear for a long time that the Brexit deal isn't a good one, that there would be problems. An awful lot of slow learning taking place around the implications of Brexit, and it isn't just the Brits who are having to do the slow learning.

SF have been saying from the start that Brexit is a bad idea and have argued for ways of mitigating it as best as possible.

The problems are as predicted, and they same ones are being experienced all over the UK.

What do you need 'explained'?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

THat is an extension of there 'abstensionist' stance which is actually based primarily on not involving themselves in running other countries more than the refusal to take an oth to the Queen.

Not defending SF here but that is alos wrong. Read the Dáil debates after Brexit was first suggested. As soon as it was you will see SF arguing for Special Status against a Kenny government which was dismissing the idea. The EU even at ne point voted against it. What the SHinners did was convince Dublin of the need and more importantly, lobbied the EU on the special circumstances and the border issues in NI.
Then, IMO they pulled a masterful political move (by accident or design) Having convinced Dublin they allowed Irish people in the north to look to Dublin as their protectors and defenders of the GFA and we can see the results. By that stage Unionists had done the damage themselves.

They had to say something but at the same time say nothing much (my opinion), knowing that the D.U.P. were flushed with power but walking into an old Conservative trap. N.I./P.U.L. community was not at the forefront of Conservative party politics interests.. They never have been.

Now there is an Irish sea border. The D.U.P. were king-makers during the Brexit negotiations, and the upshot of all "their boastful power" is that the port of Larne now has a Border customs post between Britain and N.I.

What a message London has sent Belfast!

Lucy8080 wrote: »

They had to say something but at the same time say nothing much (my opinion), knowing that the D.U.P. where flushed with power but walking into an old Conservative trap. N.I./P.U.L. community was not at the forefront of Conservative party politics interests.. They never have been.

Now there is an Irish sea border. The D.U.P. were king-makers during the Brexit negotiations, and the upshot of all "their boastful power" is that the port of Larne now has a Border customs post between Britain and N.I.

What a message London has sent Belfast!

In fairness, your 'opinion' is not based in fact.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In fairness, your 'opinion' is not based in fact.

Britain and Europe both knew about the G.F.A.

Letting the Shinners vent in the Dail was window dressing for those who actually had the power to bring up the G.F.A. in negotiations during round the table debates about Brexit in Brussels..

If there were no S.F. (T.D.s ) at the time, the G.F.A. would still have been a problem (for Britain) and an asset (for Europe) in the negotiations.

blanch152

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Britain and Europe both knew about the G.F.A.

Letting the Shinners vent in the Dail was window dressing for those who actually had the power to bring up the G.F.A. in negotiations during round the table debates about Brexit in Brussels..

If there were no S.F. (T.D.s ) at the time, the G.F.A. would still have been a problem (for Britain) and an asset (for Europe) in the negotiations.

Get on message, Brexit is a success thanks to Sinn Fein. That is the mantra, that is the fact.

If you express any other opinion, it is only your opinion, your misguided thoughts. You will need to get with the rightthink.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Britain and Europe both knew about the G.F.A.

Letting the Shinners vent in the Dail was window dressing for those who actually had the power to bring up the G.F.A. in negotiations during round the table debates about Brexit in Brussels..

If there were no S.F. (T.D.s ) at the time, the G.F.A. would still have been a problem (for Britain) and an asset (for Europe) in the negotiations.

Those 'in the Dáil' were against special status for NI at the time. And the EU Parliament' assisted by the parties who were against it, voted against special status for NI too.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0705/888039-brexit-northern-ireland/

Here is Adams in early 2017 criticising the Irish government.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/gerry-adams-hard-border-inevitable-unless-ni-given-special-status-post-brexit-35459893.html

Both institutions changed their minds on that.

SF certainly weren't silent on it. Credit whoever you want, but the history is the history.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Those 'in the Dáil' were against special status for NI at the time. And the EU Parliament' assisted by the parties who were against it, voted against special status for NI too.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0705/888039-brexit-northern-ireland/

Here is Adams in early 2017 criticising the Irish government.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/gerry-adams-hard-border-inevitable-unless-ni-given-special-status-post-brexit-35459893.html

Both institutions changed their minds on that.

SF certainly weren't silent on it. Credit whoever you want, but the history is the history.

All I'm saying here, is that in serious negotiations, the background noise of S.F. , would have been on the table anyway. If only as a negotiating position.

Better to let the opposition make the noise's, and then push for what was always on the table. Even some Unionists are blaming Sinn Fein in an effort to distract from their own leaders.

The D.U.P. actually had some power in London, and in the negotiations during Brexit, Sinn Fein only had the power of an opposition party (down south).

Sinn Fein are neither to blame for the Irish sea border/nor can they take credit for saving us from a hard border.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

All I'm saying here, is that in serious negotiations, the background noise of S.F. , would have been on the table anyway. If only as an negotiating position.

Better to let the opposition make the noise's, and then push for what was always on the table. Even some Unionists are blaming Sinn Fein in an effort to distract from their own leaders.

The D.U.P. actually had some power in London, and in the negotiations during Brexit, Sinn Fein only had the power of an opposition party.

Sinn Fein are neither to blame for the Irish sea border/nor can they take credit for saving us from a hard border.

What was 'always on the table'?

Are you saying Kenny's government pretended to be against a special status for NI?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What was 'always on the table'?

Are you saying Kenny's government pretended to be against a special status for NI?

I'm saying that the G.F.A. was always on the table. I wouldn't worry too much about the internal politics/characters on this Island when Britain has taken a vote that seems indifferent of N.I.s place in the U.K. and down right ignorant of Scottish feelings towards Europe.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

I'm saying that the G.F.A. was always on the table. I wouldn't worry too much about the internal politics/characters on this Island when Britain has taken a vote that seems indifferent of N.I.s place in the U.K. and down right ignorant of Scottish feelings towards Europe.

Nobody claimed that the GFA was NOT always on the table.

So how does that expalin Kenny's government being initially against special status for Northern Ireland when the GFA allowed for it and while others were calling for and lobbying for it, critically where it was of the utmost importance to lobby - at the EU itself?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody claimed that the GFA was NOT always on the table.

So how does that expalin Kenny's government being initially against special status for Northern Ireland when the GFA allowed for it and while others were calling for and lobbying for it, critically where it was of the utmost importance to lobby - at the EU itself?

Don't worry too much about Kenny/Special status, as you said " Nobody claimed that the GFA was not always on the table".

You have answered your own question.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Britain and Europe both knew about the G.F.A.

Letting the Shinners vent in the Dail was window dressing for those who actually had the power to bring up the G.F.A. in negotiations during round the table debates about Brexit in Brussels..

If there were no S.F. (T.D.s ) at the time, the G.F.A. would still have been a problem (for Britain) and an asset (for Europe) in the negotiations.

The GFA was not an asset for the EU. It was just as much a problem for the EU as it was for Britain.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Don't worry too much about Kenny/Special status, as you said " Nobody claimed that the GFA was not always on the table".

You have answered your own question.

Lost here.

But never mind, we are we are.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Don't worry too much about Kenny/Special status, as you said " Nobody claimed that the GFA was not always on the table".

You have answered your own question.

Kenny's initiative was some sort of an All-Ireland Council to deal with Brexit. Arlene told him to get lost with that one (which the dogs in the street knew would happen).

edit: the Tories still bang on about how everything would have worked out ok if Kenny was in charge and that Varadkar was just causing trouble for the sake of it.

jm08 wrote: »

The GFA was not an asset for the EU. It was just as much a problem for the EU as it was for Britain.

The E.U. has no problem with the Island of Ireland remaining within Europe. The U.K. have the headache of negotiating N.I. out of Europe.

It has resulted in an Irish sea border. Britain don't seem too bothered by that fact. I'm all right Jack.

grayzer75

jm08 wrote: »

Kenny's initiative was some sort of an All-Ireland Council to deal with Brexit. Arlene told him to get lost with that one (which the dogs in the street knew would happen).

They'll do the same when it comes to having a discussion about how a future United Ireland would / should look but then throw the toys out of the pram if it passed in a vote.

grayzer75 wrote: »

They'll do the same when it comes to having a discussion about how a future United Ireland would / should look but then throw the toys out of the pram if it passed in a vote.

If a UI comes abut, no doubt histry will be forgotten/rewritten and the FF FG team will be out claiming the credit.

Lucy8080 wrote: »

I'm saying that the G.F.A. was always on the table. I wouldn't worry too much about the internal politics/characters on this Island when Britain has taken a vote that seems indifferent of N.I.s place in the U.K. and down right ignorant of Scottish feelings towards Europe.

A direct quote from Kenny:

Mr Kenny's minority Fine Gael-led government is opposed to a special EU status for Northern Ireland, warning it could set a precedent that would worry other European countries.
But Micheal Martin, leader of Fianna Fail, the main opposition party which props up the government as part of a three-year deal, said Northern Ireland is a special case.
"For a range of reasons which we have outlined in detail we believe that Northern Ireland is a unique case and it should have a special status," he told the gathering.

jm08 wrote: »

A direct quote from Kenny:

Kenny did what his successor did on Same Sex rights, he changed his mind when he seen what way the wind was blowing. His position was devoid of any particular principles.