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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

2 places from 4. No joy with Townshend there - was up with the pace, but faded about 4fs out, and comes 6th, or so..

[Deleted User]

20 minutes to wait for the next - the 3 o'c Ascot... Three picks, and 4 places a fifth on offer, so reasonably confident of a boost to the 'e/w combi doubles coffers'

:pac:

[Deleted User]

^

Just the one place

Espoir De Guye gets 4th - still hopeful

3 places from 7 so far, and narys the winner

Big one up next in the 3.35 - so hope First Flow is progressive enough to hold his own in this stellar company... I don't think a place is a futile ambition. I really like Waiting Patiently, and surely he won't be far away; but win - I'm not so sure.

I'm not liking this Politoglogolog

of Paul Nicholls, but the pundits probably reckon he's a cert :pac: Course they would- they want folk backing short/gammy favs... I think the fav goes off in front, and will be there to be shot at; and if he's good enough it could be between him and Patiently to pick up the pieces. And not forgetting last year's winner JP's Defi, who I think has a a question mark based on his last run (but it was after an absence),

Hon first Flow :cool:

[Deleted User]

^^

GWA!N BASSSSSYYYYYYYY!!!!!! The jock that is, not the less than stellar poster on here :P

Giddy up First Flow

Well done to Hughesie and Waiting Patiently getting third..

PS have to say I called that (in the above post) like a mofo

Credit where it's due :pac:

Three places, and a big priced tasty winner from 8 picks - not too shabby... I reckon the combi dbls must be nearly covered now.... Another winner should do it. We (me, at least

) is happy

[Deleted User]

YAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2 winners in a row. GWAN Protek Des FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!! and Richie Mc... Lovely drift out to 17/2. We is deffo happy now. Thread in profit now... The combi doubles in profit tooo..........

It's all cream or gravy (depending on one's preference) from here...

2 places at Newcastle be good, as don't want to be to hopeful, only to end up disappointed. A winner or three be even better at the High Gosforth Park venue... :P

[Deleted User]

BOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM..............

Madeeh wins snugly at Newcastle under Jack Mitchell.

[Deleted User]

And Furniture doesn't do much in the 4.40 Newcastle... That was a pure 'punt' , and wasn't expecting much anyway - I usually back them Thompson Furni horses regardless.. Plus about 10% of my selections are hunches, or punts.. But that was the only one today... A couple of 'speculative' ones I put up too (but I put quite a few of them up anyway - about 15%+ overall would be speculative; or have a squeak...

Anyway - Three races, and 4 selections left, and I expect they should all go well... Provided they give their true running/get the run of the race etc... No speculative ones

[Deleted User]

And the well-backed Sharrabang comes nowhere.... Seems like a low draw spells doom at the track; especially on Standard to Slow going.... Horse was all on his own outside, and you usually know your fate, when the jockey can't, or opts not to switch inside... Ah well, can't win them all.

2 races and 3 picks left - I'm still confident I'll get a place at least out of one of them.

pottokblue

Welcome back in the profitzone!

[Deleted User]

And another well backed selection Kapono comes nowhere

. Held up out the back early doors, but the jockey makes his move on that ruinous far side rail

1 race, and two left now. I'd settle for the short one to place for those of us who done the combination doubles :pac:

Although; the 1-2 with the bigger priced one in the 1 spot would be sweet as

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

Welcome back in the profitzone!

Thanks Pottokblue

I reckon the threads up about 5 or 6 points (not much, but still marginally ahead)
1 race left - get a win and a place, and could be well into double figures profit :pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

YAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2 winners in a row. GWAN Protek Des FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!! and Richie Mc... Lovely drift out to 17/2. We is deffo happy now. Thread in profit now... The combi doubles in profit tooo..........

It's all cream or gravy (depending on one's preference) from here...

2 places at Newcastle be good, as don't want to be to hopeful, only to end up disappointed. A winner or three be even better at the High Gosforth Park venue... :P

Should have said something like in profit for the day now , or something like that... Not the Thread itself overalll

Got a bit excited there :pac: Pretty sure the "Thread" is back in profit now though

[Deleted User]

Two selections Rockley Point and Billy Dylan are both drawn high here

in the 6.40; in boxes 11 and 12, which is good for their chances

[Deleted User]

^^^^^
Not as much as a place there - 4th was Rockley

[Deleted User]

23/01

Running P & L -6.4pts

Invested 30pts

Returns:

12.40 Casa Loupi (done e/w @ 10s) places at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
3.00 Espoir De Guye (done e/w) places at 6/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.2pts
3.35 First Flow (done e/w @ 18s) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 23.6pts
2.05 Milvale (done e/w @ 8/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts
3.50 Protek Des Flos (done e/w) wins at 17/2 at a fifth the odds a place returning 12.2pts
4.05 Madeeh (done e/w at 8s) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 11.6pts

Total in play 30pts - returns 55.2pts

Profit for the day 25.2pts

Running invested total - 1,300 pts

Total P & L + 18.8pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

Running P & L -50.1pts

Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.

Returns:

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts

Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts

Loss for the day 12.6pts

Running invested total - 906pts

Total P & L -62.7pts

Clawed the loss back anyway

Deleted User wrote: »

Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.

Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...

I will keep trying anyway

Just another 6pts to go using that higher points number above to reach that >5% profit target (1,300 pts in atm, although that's not counting the *AP pts) - So I need >46.5pts profit out of the next 6pts invested to get a decimal point above that 5% profit level; which I wanted to exceed.... Looks pretty much unattainable now.

*I suppose I could refrain from posting for the next 8 (when Cheltenham is over) weeks :pac: in the hope that I'll reach the target; but I don't think the picks there would make enough points even if they won (think I've 2 picks there) , or wait another month for the National to take place :pac: Would definitely reach the hopeful profit level then, as I would have enough of a points tally if they all won

A long time to go, so the above aint gonna happen - unless either me, or racing stops

Thread back in profit though, and that'll do me at the minute.

Hope some folk following made some profit today

Was a good day, and not too far off doubling the points tally

Pity about Newcastle - after a very good start - nothing..

Will keep at it for another while anyway

Might have a selection or five in the next day or two, but nothing like the amount I had today, I would think; what with all the inspections at the jumps tracks. Still, it looks like racing is okay; at least for now throughout all this 'Plandemic' (it is to me anyway - I reckon some fqers invented this, and put the blame on bats, and 'wetmarkets' :rolleyes: ) , so hopefully many months ahead to catch a few more winners

[Deleted User]

4.10 Lingfield Dazzling Des 11/1

Has drifted out to a good price. Seems to be a hold up performer, who's drawn wide. A lot of these like to be forward, so he should be able to get settled in behind early easy enough. Looks to be possibly sleet or snow there at Lingfield, so maybe being to the fore won't be ideal, although it does look like it has ceased atm. The 7/4 favourite Power Over Me appears progressive, and the one to beat. He is worth taking on nonetheless, and going each way it doesn't really matter, as three places are on offer. The selection has just as good a chance as any of these imo, having won off a higher mark before here, and that was over C & D this time last year in a race two grades higher than today, plus he's only 4. May back him w/o fav as well, but for thread purposes it's an each way from me here.

[Deleted User]

2.10 Lingfield Thechildren'strust e/w 16/1

[Deleted User]

^^

No good - horse never settled..... Last

[Deleted User]

24/01

Running P & L + 18.8pts

Invested 4pts

Returns - none

Total in play 4pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 4pts

Running invested total - 1,304 pts

Total P & L + 14.8pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Put up 06/01

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

Another one for the AP list

Put up 11/01

Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)

10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.

Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.

Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..

Deleted User wrote: »

Reserve Tank 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham

Put up 15/01

Well, he has an entry, and was alright over the sticks a while back - hasn't ran in over a year though.. A big priced winner in this last year too,

REMINDER AP BETS - Dates put up
AP selections put up on 06/01 , 11/01 & 15th January.

25/01 This next one for:

Sky Bet Handicap Chase Doncaster Saturday 30th Jan.

Kalashnikov 14/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4)

[Deleted User]

8.15 Kempton Kybosh 25/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

25/01

Running P & L + 14.8pts

Invested 2pts

Returns:

8.15 Kybosh (done e/w @ 25s) places at a fifth the odds returning 6pts

Total in play 2pts - returns 6pts

Profit for the day 4pts

Running invested total 1,306 pts

Total P & L + 18.8pts

[Deleted User]

Kalashnikov - the latest AP selection is out of that Saturday race I think. Will deduct those points on the day of race, or close to.

[Deleted User]

26/01

5.10 Wolves Finoah 16/1 e/w
I like this race, as I think cases can be made for plenty, thus contributing to making this one a good price. Looking at it, it seems that a lot of these like to lead or race prominently. The selection is drawn in the 4 box, so hopefully the jockey Jane Elliott can get the rails position early, with many of the protagonists duelling it out wide early to get to the front. Horse is 0 from 5 at the track, but did come third here 2 runs back over C & D (also drawn 4 that day) in a Class 4, in a fast time. This will be only the third time the horse has tackled this trip at the track, and it's his third time in a row tackling it today, so is also perhaps unexposed. The 7lb claiming jockey Poppy Fielding was on top for those two attempts, and both were Class 4s. I'm also thinking that the trainer feels the drop in grade will be to Finoah's advantage, and wants a more experienced jockey on top, even if it means more weight on it's back. At a price that I feel is possibly double what the selection will go off at I'm happy to have a go here.

A precautionary inspection in the morning, so hope it passes.

[Deleted User]

6.10 Wolves Zafaranah 7/1 e/w

A standing dish on the thread, so she owes me :P , as this mare has yet to oblige since I started putting her up. The price is fair. The horse is a former C & D winner, although she hasn't won in over two years. Has been running exclusively in Class 5s since being sent to Mrs Barclay's last September, and runs off topweight in a Class 6 today having dropped just over a stone since then. The excellent Hollie Doyle is on top too - which helps.

[Deleted User]

No joy with Finoah... Never even got a 'run for our money' there

Next time, or the time after that for him... :cool:

I'll reply to this post, and say 'WD' , 'good picking' etc... should he oblige at anything resembling "a working/unemployed - man/woman/any of the other 98 genders' price" :pac:

Aftertiming in advance :pac:

Mrs Barclay's isn't exactly fancied in the 6.10 - out to 9/1, but hopefully that won't stop the mare from passing the lollipop stick in front

[Deleted User]

27/01

Lingfield

12.40 Essgee Nics 12/1 e/w
Has Luke Morris on top. Trip might be on the short side, but is a good price, and if anyone can get a win on him, it surely is 'the sniper' . Another one that often runs a good race, and often flatters to deceive, and is available at 4/1 is Conrad Allen's mare Voi - so that one merits a favourable mention

3.00 Bird For Life 5/1 e/w
Seems to have seen some money already, and the topweight should be finishing strongest of all here over the close to 2m trip here.

[Deleted User]

Nothing with Zafaranah.. Only the two picks today, so hard enough to pick a winner, but both of them started, or decided to (in Zafaranah's case) run out the back, so didn't even get a sweat on with either of them...

[Deleted User]

One more for tonight, and it's a bit of a punt

7.10 Wolves Mops Gem 25/1 e/w

This daughter of Equiano is tackling 7fs for the first time tonight; which seems, on her form to date to be a bit on the stiff side. She is drawn low in stall 2, down in grade to a Class 6, and has 7lb claimer Frederick Larson on top for the first time - might be a 'try and make all' attempt, I'm hoping. The best priced 2/1 fav Major J has seen some money, but I don't know why. The selection's trainer Mick Appleby has been among the winners recently too.

Good luck