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Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

Kintarō Hattori

I was surprised to see that we won't have a general chat thread. Sometimes what you want to say doesn't really fit in any of the existing topics. Hopefully this becomes useful.

So for me I'm intrigued by the Lip watches Wibbs posted about and am now thinking about getting one of those.

*Title courtesy of Spocker

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dakar

For completeness, here’s the same angle on the Orion 38. The placement of the strap ends is remarkably similar despite the different lug shape, but the Orion curves and hugs the wrist a little more, with the springbars just below the level of the back of the case, rather than a millimeter or two higher on the Tangente.

redlead

david wrote: »

That's very deceptive alright, you'd swear they curved but in reality they probably sit flush with the caseback. Form over function for sure!

.

Thats exactly it. The bottom of the curve is perfectly aligned with the bottom of the caseback. Thats very interesting comparing it to Dakars Orion. That one definitely curves down so would likely wear slightly smaller than the tangente even though the lugs have more presence.

893bet

dakar wrote: »

Fixed?

Yes. Very nice. I tried to buy that from CJ but it was sold before I got there. I don’t think I would have kept it with the gold accents in any case. Still lovely.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

It will likely be a lot cheaper to buy it now and hide it away for the next 16 years!

If this place is around and I am too :eek::D I'll bet you one hundred euro that you'll be wrong.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

If this place is around and I am too :eek::D I'll bet you one hundred euro that you'll be wrong.

You seriously reckon a Milgauss will be worth less in 16 years than it is now? What do you base that on? Pure wishful thinking maybe?

I hope you'll still be around anyway. Not so sure if boards will survive that long though

2shea

IrishPlayer wrote: »

Just after getting back from getting an eye test at Specsavers in Blanchardstown shopping centre. The Optometrist was wearing a Rolex Day-Date 36 'Cherry Dial'

A member on Boards.ie over on the shooting section. He also has an Air-King and is looking to get a GMT- Pepsi. He was saying some of the other guys working there have Omega's, Breitling and a Submariner (I'm defiantly in the wrong line if work!:D)

I was telling him about this great corner of Boards (all the while thinking to myself " bet Unkel would love this! ).

Was wearing my 4006-6020 Bell-Matic and demonstrated the alarm, he never seen anything like it! :cool:

A great start to the week!, fantastic getting to chat in person with someone with an interest in watches and seeing them in the wild.

Jesus this is a thing if beauty

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

You seriously reckon a Milgauss will be worth less in 16 years than it is now? What do you base that on? Pure wishful thinking maybe?

I hope you'll still be around anyway. Not so sure if boards will survive that long though

These things go in cycles U. The current fashion/trend for men's watches could go either way and most likely downwards. Oh there will always be a small gang of people who will vie for the very top slot rarefied stuff, but that's the case with all collectables and luxury items, but the mass of people not so much. Watches are mass produced items produced in their millions, we're not talking renaissance grand masters here(and even they fluctuate). The hobby and trend simply couldn't exist if they were actually rare and limited in number. Indeed I've seen some of the very rarest examples of actual horological significance go for buttons*. Now there is a shortage at the moment, but it's an entirely artificial one and the market is buying into that, but it may not buy into it for long. And it won't take much. The interwebs which fomented the enthusiasm has a short attention span and disillusionment travels faster than ever. 16 years ago people would consider us mad for paying more for a steel case over a solid gold one and yet today... 16 years ago vintage IWC were worth more than today. 16 years ago military issued watches were barely on the radar, but today are way more pricey, but the market has stagnated with few selling compared to even five years ago.

But appreciate the well wishes for my survival U.

*two years ago I spotted one of the first truly waterproof watches(along with the Tavannes "Submarine") designed and made in 1917 with only one known to survive. I didn't bother putting in a bid because I figured it would go for thousands. 500 quid. I still have kick marks on my back.... You can get a Tavannes "Submarine" for around the same money when they come up.

unkel

You'll be proven wrong on the Milgauss though Wibbs

It's underrated, undervalued (still worth less than retail as one of the very few steel Rolex), yet generally considered a classic and most likely to be discontinued in the next few years and never made in huge quantities. One of the likeliest currently available Rolex watches to go up in value (don't take my word for it, several dealers have recently stated this)

And when in the last few decades have Rolex gone out of fashion?

The mark is far more popular now and has better brand recognition (both with young people) than it ever was.

This is not a sales pitch for Fitz either. If I had the spare cash to have kept the Milgauss (as an investment and for occasional wear), I would have.

scwazrh

unkel wrote: »

You seriously reckon a Milgauss will be worth less in 16 years than it is now? What do you base that on? Pure wishful thinking maybe?

I hope you'll still be around anyway. Not so sure if boards will survive that long though

As a man that drives an electric car and understands Crypto do you not get the irony of your statement claiming that watches will be always in demand ?

unkel

I didn't claim that watches in general will always be in demand. Always is a very long time anyway

But if you think about it, we never needed watches less than we do now, we all have phones that tell us the time better. Yet luxury watches were never this popular and never was so much money spent on them. The Rolex brand in particular is really strong in this market. Go show any 12 year old (boy or girl) a Rolex and ask what it is. 95% will recognise it immediately. Had you done so 10 years ago, this figure would have been lower, 20 years ago even lower, etc. These are the people that quite likely will buy a Rolex once they have the money in a few decades time. Even when by then people will barely realise what a rapper was or this ridiculous gang culture

dinorebel

scwazrh wrote: »

As a man that drives an electric car and understands Crypto do you not get the irony of your statement claiming that watches will be always in demand ?

Not sure on this electric cars are a necessity crypto may or may not be the future of finance watches are an emotional choice(regardless of flipping which is a means to an end) otherwise we'd all be using our phones to check the time.

scwazrh

Agreed that we don’t need watches anymore .Eventually watches will be outdated in the same way a V8 will be in museum piece and cash will be as strange as a pound note to my 13 yr old .

Will it happen in 16yrs as mentioned? Who knows , but I didn’t think 16 yrs ago that I would be changing all my cash for crypto and waiting to trade my diesel pickup for an electric one.The idea of Rolex watches only going one way is not as sound as you might think.

893bet

In absolute terms the Milgauss will cost more in 16 years.

But...

The rate of increase of the last 5 years cannot be maintained for Rolex
The rate of inflation for the next 16 is unknown.
The cost of ownership for the next 16 years can’t be ignored. There is a reasonable chance of a 600 quid plus service at some point. Especially if you actually wear the watch.
The opportunity cost of 8k tied up for 16 years can’t be ignored. With the right investment that 16k could easily be 32k or 320k or 32cents.

One may say they are undervalued. Or are they over valued? Given that the mania of the last 5 years never really hit them (even OPs are more than retail for Christ sake) then it seems they are unloved by the general public. I wouldn’t place my house on them becoming anything more than a cult classic, and that’s a relatively small cult.

Fitz II

My advice to anyone is buy the watch not the promise of profit. The milgauss has treated me well, and with the service (they are 800 euro now plus parts) I am looking to get out what I am in it for and they are rising in price. In 16 years who knows but if you are after a interesting, wearable and robust rolex look no further.

Wibbs

Fitz II wrote: »

My advice to anyone is buy the watch not the promise of profit.

This. A thousand times this.

unkel

And if my post would somehow suggest a profit is guaranteed, that is not what I meant. Any investment is risky and there are always opportunity costs. 893bet worded it better than I can.

What I do like about modern Rolex sports watches is that if you buy reasonably well (so not an overhyped one like some are from time to time), you can have a classy watch and it is very unlikely you will lose serious money on it over a few years. Not many other luxury things you can say that about. And that is pretty much the only reason I have allowed myself to own one.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

You'll be proven wrong on the Milgauss though Wibbs

It's underrated, undervalued (still worth less than retail as one of the very few steel Rolex), yet generally considered a classic and most likely to be discontinued in the next few years and never made in huge quantities. One of the likeliest currently available Rolex watches to go up in value (don't take my word for it, several dealers have recently stated this)

Dealers can be comfortably ignored U. The vast majority live in the moment and the very near future. If they didn't they wouldn't be very good dealers, or last for long.

They're also crap at telling the future, or very knowledgeable about the past. read any blog or watch any video on dealers and one of the consistent themes is how they missed out on Watch X that was a bargain two years ago and now is worth bazillions. The average buyer and even the clued in one can make similar regrets, hell I've done it myself, but that's far more understandable than so called expert dealers. Basically beyond the flash surface and reference numbers rattled out the same expert dealers have as much clue as the rest of us. 20 years ago dealers were saying invest in IWC and where did that go... Breguet another. Hodinkee's first vid with the John Mayer chap had the vintage Rolex going on, but one of the big takeaways was his IWC big pilot and again today they and IWC itself barely pop up on the radar of buyers, or blogs or vlogs. They're just another watch in the pantheon. Heuers have stagnated too and not just in the vintage realm. Remember the 90's and well into the noughties when a TAG Whooer was the "good watch" for people. They had huge brand recognition in the mainstream. Hell back in the day of the Boards beers I can recall three occasions when because of the forum people asked my advice on watches and TAG was the brand every time.

Collectors who are flippers are similar to dealers with a similar short term viewpoint and both tend to buy into each other and love the buying and selling and many dealers started out as same. I was reading a recent Hodinkee article on advice on buying into the vintage market and the author without blinking, or a sense of awareness stated While I'm far from a dealer, or even a true pro when it comes to vintage watches, I have bought and sold a couple of hundred watches That's a flipper.

Both are invested in the market more than the product, so are not likely to see the bigger picture from the inside.

And when in the last few decades have Rolex gone out of fashion?

In the 70's they gained popularity with their explorer ad campaigns and made inroads into the US where they'd been an unknown to the general public, but quartz and digitals buggered them. This side of the world they'd had the sniff of new money and used car dealers well into the 90's, and if one did pop up in public the question "is it real" was often to be heard even then...

unkel wrote: »

I didn't claim that watches in general will always be in demand. Always is a very long time anyway But if you think about it, we never needed watches less than we do now, we all have phones that tell us the time better. Yet luxury watches were never this popular and never was so much money spent on them.

A trend which is less than a decade old in the mainstream and it needs the mainstream to sustain it. The oddball collector segment can't sustain it. When it was just the oddball collector segment new prices were new and vintage were save for rarities or what was fashionable at the time in the majority of cases cheaper. More current used models were also cheaper.

The Rolex brand in particular is really strong in this market. Go show any 12 year old (boy or girl) a Rolex and ask what it is. 95% will recognise it immediately. Had you done so 10 years ago, this figure would have been lower, 20 years ago even lower, etc. These are the people that quite likely will buy a Rolex once they have the money in a few decades time. Even when by then people will barely realise what a rapper was or this ridiculous gang culture

Abercrombie & Fitch. Huge brand recognition among the young not so long ago and... It really doesn't take much to slip and relying on the young a fickle market indeed. Rolex has been one of the most recognised luxury brands in the world over the last 20 plus years. A kid in the 80's would have likely recognised it too. Indeed at least some of the current upward trend can be traced to those kids reaching middle age with some cash to splash.

And the other elephant in the room are fakes. The person who asked "is it fake?" back in the day could tell pretty easily if it was or wasn't with feck all knowledge. Today dealers have been caught out, even as we've seen earlier in the thread actual fakers and fake buyers. That's not going away and the fakes will keep getting better to the point where the tells will be become ever more esoteric. Now I wouldn't wear one if you paid me, but I wouldn't wear a real one either so I'm not in the game anyway, but in the market itself, paying a grand for a fake and keeping anything up to 20 grand in the bank, if you have it in the first place, for something that will fool 99% of people, if they even notice, will become more prevalent and will hurt the market. You sense that on youtube and blogs, where once fakes were either ignored and/or rightfully vilified and usually laughed at, nowadays you're getting more and more comparisons and concerns around them and the companies themselves are very much no comment. The moment fakes become "ironic" and more mainstream the big brands are in trouble. The video from the Nico chap up north where he looked at Colin Mcgregor's watches and Colin was wearing a fake in one pic. Now Colin isn't exactly short of a bob.

unkel

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

Cyclingtourist

I'm attracted to Tudor, specifically the Black Bays. Tried on a couple in Weirs and Sheerans before Christmas but need to get back and try again and maybe also a 58. Haven't ruled out an Omega but need to check them out on the wrist. Everything on hold at the moment which is probably just as well.:)

By the time the shops open my perspective may have changed and priorities also, so who knows.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

It is worrying alright, though again the Milgauss would be one model least likely to be hit by that as it doesn't seem to be on the faker radar. The Cellini range another. Pretty unfashionable now but they weren't always. Quite the few showed up in forum wristshots in the 90's, along with other mid and high tier dressy designs. The dress watch could well make a comeback. After all it was the design favourite for men for most of the 20th century.

I've certainly seen fakes and frankens stagnate some segments of the vintage market down the years, though that's among the collector types who know and given how many vintage dealers that sell to the mainstream market have redials and are still apparently selling maybe not so much.

Thirdfox

unkel wrote: »

Yeah the fakes. Elephant in the room alright. Deeply worrying. Should it become acceptable to wear a good fake - indistinguishable from a real one unless scrutinized by a pro - then the end is nigh.

Bvlgari finissimos and jlc atmos - can't be faked (economically) is the way to go

The "problem" (for investors) comes when the fakes become so real that you can only guarantee real when buying retail - that would kill greater than retail 2nd hand prices in short order

And for things like a Rolex submariner sadly there's very little "technical" stuff there that can prevent fakes from reaching very close to 1:1 copying (even worse for Panerai etc.)

The day will come when we identify a fake Seiko due to its bezels aligning too perfectly :pac:

Wibbs

Thirdfox wrote: »

The day will come when we identify a fake Seiko due to its bezels aligning too perfectly :pac:

I was watching a Watchfinder video recently comparing a real and fake Rolex GMT and while there were obvious quality differences visible under a loupe the comments noted that the paint on the GMT hand on the fake was better than the real deal... A fair chunk of the quality differences could have been narrowed with a few more hours of finishing. Machines are getting better and better at "hand finishing" too. In another 20 years? The real may well be distinguished by the tiny human errors rather than perfection.

banie01

I have had a look over on r/reptime since the horology house fiasco a few years ago and everytime I think I've learnt something...
I go over there and have my foundations quickly turned to sand.

The range and accuracy of the fakes, of their detail and the completeness of the copy is honestly staggering.
I think I posted it at the time the Watchfinder Vs 1000 dollar fake Rolex video originally came out?
But the "gurus" over on that subreddit, actually completely rubbished the video.
Their main problem with it!
Was that it was a poor fake, and that no-one was paying 1k for the fake used for the comparison.

The visual differences are becoming harder and harder to spot.
The movements are being cloned to what appears to be a visual pass at least.

I'm beginning to think that co-axials and other more complicated movements than standard ETA/Sellita are the only ones not being copied to a worryingly passable standard.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

The dress watch could well make a comeback. After all it was the design favourite for men for most of the 20th century.

It's possible but the vast majority of men rarely dress up to more than smart casual these days. I used to wear a good shirt pretty much 7 days a week. Now not even once a month. And pretty much never a suit anymore. Nothing stopping you wearing a dress watch with jeans and a t-shirt of course though

Wibbs

I look like a hipster so I wear dress watches ironically.

banie01

unkel wrote: »

It's possible but the vast majority of men rarely dress up to more than smart casual these days. I used to wear a good shirt pretty much 7 days a week. Now not even once a month. And pretty much never a suit anymore. Nothing stopping you wearing a dress watch with jeans and a t-shirt of course though

Same!
I haven't any of those fancy "left cuff" bigger shirts

But, even without the pandemic, early retirement and a return to uni have left me with a wardrobe of now unworn formal shirts and suits that I'm probably unlikely to ever wear again even if I do return to professional work.

They'd all need to be altered anyway!!!
Cos even with adding back on 10kg over the lockdowns, I'm still far slimmer than me usual suited and booted look!

There's a photo on a shelf here of me and Mrs from 2012...
And I looked like a shaved and dressed bear :pac:

Wibbs

Just looked at that reddit sub and a couple of the links. Depressing.

They're even ripping of brands like Nomos, but their Rolex ripoffs are scarily accurate. Apparently so accurate you can swap in genuine parts like handsets, crystals and crowns. There are a few vintage rip offs too. Well they'd be easier to rip off in many ways.

banie01

Wibbs wrote: »

Just looked at that reddit sub and a couple of the links. Depressing.

It is quite literally terrifying tbh.
Between that and a couple of the fake forums you would question anything you ever touched unless you were in the AD when they opened the coffin

blue5000

banie01 wrote: »

It is quite literally terrifying tbh.
Between that and a couple of the fake forums you would question anything you ever touched unless you were in the AD when they opened the coffin

Slightly off topic, but I've heard fake tyres are being produced in China now too.

Seems to be a lot more interest in this forum compared to 12 months ago. If there's any new people on here that are thinking about buying a watch for the first time and are unsure don't be afraid to ask. I started out with very little knowledge, I'm always learning, and I have to emphasize I am not an expert of any sort.

What I'm trying to say is most of us who have been here for a few years are a helpful bunch, don't be afraid to join in.

Blanchy90

Its scary how good some of those reps are

I just don't understand wearing a fake watch, I have no problem with a homage that is near identical but without the logo. That said my seiko great while dial says seiko on it even though its aftermarket ( I got it with parts and didn't know it was am at the time). But my mod is a mod and not trying to pass as a genuine watch

It comes up quite a lot in some of the watch modding fb groups using aftermarket dials that have the brand name on it. Its a tough one with mods, at what point is it not a seiko / vostok anymore? Is it any better using a genuine seiko dial on a mod made of all after market parts than using a aftermarket dial on an otherwise standard seiko