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Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

[Deleted User]

Is there another way of looking at it?
It’s still very, very divided, and actually seems to be getting more polarized over the last five years. It’s economy is woeful, very heavily dependent on the public sector.
Unionists are making plans to celebrate its centenary, but there seems to be very little to be happy with, certainly far less than the Republic or the rest of the UK.
No point in arguing about a border poll on this thread, but is there any possible way of looking at NI as a social, political and economic failure?

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FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

The same polls that had 17% yes to unification and 65% against in January 2013 to 42% for and 47% against most recently. Those polls you're confident in? Bless.

When polls got that tight in the Scottish Indy Ref, the British government panicked and Unionists here even went to Scotland to drum up support for the 'Union'.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When polls got that tight in the Scottish Indy Ref, the British government panicked and Unionists here even went to Scotland to drum up support for the 'Union'.

Do you think Westminster will be so exercised if the polls turn against a union with NI?

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think Westminster will be so exercised if the polls turn against a union with NI?

One interesting thing I read today that I hadn't given thought to is that the British government's commttment to neutrality on the issue of a UI '...without outside impediment' etc means that they won't be able to offer financial inducements to attract voters to stay.

I think that was deliberate to be honest and no, I don't think they will overtly try to convince NI unionists to stay.

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Irrelevant. That has no impact on the point I was making when it comes to the Nationalists in Northern Ireland. And I see you didn't even bother to defend the other misuses of power.

So you accept equivalent misuses of power were ongoing south of the border.
They were all disgusting whichever side of the border

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When polls got that tight in the Scottish Indy Ref, the British government panicked and Unionists here even went to Scotland to drum up support for the 'Union'.

A few bigoted nutters went with big drums and had the same impact as the ira here ie it was counterproductive

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One interesting thing I read today that I hadn't given thought to is that the British government's commttment to neutrality on the issue of a UI '...without outside impediment' etc means that they won't be able to offer financial inducements to attract voters to stay.

I think that was deliberate to be honest and no, I don't think they will overtly try to convince NI unionists to stay.

Agree

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

A few bigoted nutters went with big drums and had the same impact as the ira here ie it was counterproductive

The point was they all panicked when the polls got that close. You are feigning being unconcerned as Arlene did today with her 'not in a pandemic' kick to touch. One thing about Arlene, she cannot bluff.

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

So you accept equivalent misuses of power were ongoing south of the border.
They were all disgusting whichever side of the border

It's hard to argue equivalence when there were far more discriminated against in Northern Ireland. And the point being that they were justified in not being happy to be treated as such (both sides of the border).

Would you agree that there would be no such discrimination in a UI. Even Jim Wells has admitted there's no such thing as Rome Rule in Ireland.

Ireland is egalitarian and IT gives the best prospect of those now in NI to be able to keep onto their young and not to lose them to emigration off the island.

AngeloArgue

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's in the hands of 11% by the latest up to date polling.

I'm not so sure to what extent the 11% who responded "don't know" to the question of unification would count in a actual referendum. Maybe they won't vote at all? Maybe their votes will be split evenly? Maybe they'd be inclined one way or the other?

I'd say a border poll should only be considered if it is requested from a nationalist First Minister. Even then whether it passes or not is up in the air. But today's poll is surprising at the rise in unification sentiment in Northern Ireland.

[Deleted User]

AngeloArgue wrote: »

I'm not so sure to what extent the 11% who responded "don't know" to the question of unification would count in a actual referendum.

The key point being that they are open to persuasion. This % may increase as Brexit bites, or wane if Brexit is managed better than Downing street has so far managed.

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's hard to argue equivalence when there were far more discriminated against in Northern Ireland. And the point being that they were justified in not being happy to be treated as such (both sides of the border).

Would you agree that there would be no such discrimination in a UI. Even Jim Wells has admitted there's no such thing as Rome Rule in Ireland.

Ireland is egalitarian and IT gives the best prospect of those now in NI to be able to keep onto their young and not to lose them to emigration off the island.

Oh yes I agree, far more were discriminated against in ni. There were 30% of the population discriminated against in ni, but the discrimination was at a level that they managed to prosper and increase to 50%.
In Roi the numbers were smaller. There were just 10% of the population discriminated against, but the discrimination was so effective and extreme that they diminished to 3% of the population.
Facts are a pain in the arse, aren’t they?

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

Oh yes I agree far more were discriminated against in ni. There were 30% of the population discriminated against in ni, but the discrimination was at a level that the managed to prosper and increase to 50%. In Roi the numbers were smaller. There were just 10% of the population discriminated against, but the discrimination was so effective and extreme that they diminished to 3% of the population.
Facts are a pain in the arse, aren’t they?

Do you need more time to fully respond to my post or are you going to ignore the rest?

As a community there wasn't enough to sustain them in the ROI when they went from the ascendancy to the governed and the motherland was only a boat trip away. Yes, the more working class were probably discriminated against.

The problem in Northern Ireland is that they bit off more than they could chew. They clearly should not have taken in Derry, Tyrone or Fermanagh. And don't think the prospering came thanks to the benevolent ruling class. It was their homeland and they agitated until they got what they deserved. Their journey is not yet completed though.

downcow

AngeloArgue wrote: »

I'm not so sure to what extent the 11% who responded "don't know" to the question of unification would count in a actual referendum. Maybe they won't vote at all? Maybe their votes will be split evenly? Maybe they'd be inclined one way or the other?

I'd say a border poll should only be considered if it is requested from a nationalist First Minister. Even then whether it passes or not is up in the air. But today's poll is surprising at the rise in unification sentiment in Northern Ireland.

The politics of the first minister is irrelevant. The key is that the SOS must think it’s a likely separatist yes vote

AngeloArgue

Deleted User wrote: »

The key point being that they are open to persuasion. This % may increase as Brexit bites, or wane if Brexit is managed better than Downing street has so far managed.

Yes, I can see that.

But I don't think a border poll should happen just because some may be persuaded. If it is likely that a united Ireland has the support of the majority then it should be considered. And that is the present political position as per the GFA.

Opinion polls could inform the decision to have a border poll but as I suggested above why not wait until nationalists can demonstrably show majority political support by attaining the post of First Minister in the Norther Ireland Assembly?

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

The politics of the first minister is irrelevant. The key is that the SOS must think it’s a likely separatist yes vote

Or Irish unionists.

FrancieBrady

AngeloArgue wrote: »

Yes, I can see that.

But I don't think a border poll should happen just because some may be persuaded. If it is likely that a united Ireland has the support of the majority then it should be considered. And that is the present political position as per the GFA.

Opinion polls could inform the decision to have a border poll but as I suggested above why not wait until nationalists can demonstrably show majority political support by attaining the post of First Minister in the Norther Ireland Assembly?

That could be next year.

[Deleted User]

AngeloArgue wrote: »

Opinion polls could inform the decision to have a border poll but as I suggested above why not wait until nationalists can demonstrably show majority political support by attaining the post of First Minister in the Norther Ireland Assembly?

While parties mush designate (AFAIK) unionist or nationalist in the assembly, voters are moving away from traditional nationalist or unionist, such as Alliance. So, not all the party voters are so easily identified.

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Or Irish unionists.

‘Northern Irish’. The Irish have no input until ni decides :-)

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

‘Northern Irish’. The Irish have no input until ni decides :-)

They are allowed to see themselves as Irish... It says so on their passports

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

‘Northern Irish’. The Irish have no input until ni decides :-)

When the GFA was signed the leaders of the main Unionist parties had no issue being called Irish - Paisley and Trimble. Goes to show how recent your protestations have emerged.

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They are allowed to see themselves as Irish... It says so on their passports

Ok So you mean the Irish, british, Northern Irish and others living in Northern Ireland. I’m fine with that. But the southerners have no input until the rest of us decide Yea? Agreed?

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

Ok So you mean the Irish, british, Northern Irish and others living in Northern Ireland. I’m fine with that. But the southerners have no input until the rest of us decide Yea? Agreed?

Yes. I agree those outside NI don't have a right to vote, but can continue to debate and discuss what Ireland should do to make the NI people more welcome in a UI.

See, I answer all your questions.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When the GFA was signed the leaders of the main Unionist parties had no issue being called Irish - Paisley and Trimble. Goes to show how recent your protestations have emerged.

I would prefer not to be associated with paisley so if he’s one of yours and Irish, like you, that’s great. Did Trimble describe himself as Irish?. I quite liked him, but he was a grammar school rugger boy, so anything is possible. Would you have a link?

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes. I agree those outside NI don't have a right to vote, but can continue to debate and discuss what Ireland should do to make the NI people more welcome in a UI.

See, I answer all your questions.

Really appreciate it. You are a rare breed on this thread. If you think I have ducked any question, let me know and I’ll sort it

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I would prefer not to be associated with paisley so if he’s one of yours and Irish, like you, that’s great. Did Trimble describe himself as Irish?. I quite liked him, but he was a grammar school rugger boy, so anything is possible. Would you have a link?

Google it.
That answer reveals quite enough, thanks.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Google it.
That answer reveals quite enough, thanks.

That’s twice today your answer to my question is ‘google it’. You’d be good crack on a night out!

blanch152

AngeloArgue wrote: »

Yes, I can see that.

But I don't think a border poll should happen just because some may be persuaded. If it is likely that a united Ireland has the support of the majority then it should be considered. And that is the present political position as per the GFA.

Opinion polls could inform the decision to have a border poll but as I suggested above why not wait until nationalists can demonstrably show majority political support by attaining the post of First Minister in the Norther Ireland Assembly?

That is the key point in bold.

For a border poll to be considered you need

(1) A nationalist majority in Stormont i.e. a majority of MLAs declaring themselves to be nationalist

(2) Consistent support in opinion polls over a period of at least 18 months for a united Ireland

(3) A detailed roadmap and explanation of the implications of unity for Government finances, health, education, tax, social welfare etc. We do not need another situation like the Brexit empty shelves we have this month because people didn't understand what would happen.

FrancieBrady

Very interestig article on Slugger, which clears up the role of the SoS.
That he can call a poll when 'it appears likely...etc; is an ancillary power to powers he/she already has.
In effect, he/she can call a poll at any time.

In summary, I hope that we can put this matter to bed. The Secretary of State can hold a border poll at any time, and this has now been confirmed by four senior judges and a 12-strong panel of leading academic experts in British and Irish constitutional law and public policy. Rather than reaching for legal defences or claims that the GFA is not being honoured, I hope that we can now, instead, address this matter in the political context.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/24/a-border-poll-can-be-held-at-any-time-redux/

downcow

blanch152 wrote: »

That is the key point in bold.

For a border poll to be considered you need

(1) A nationalist majority in Stormont i.e. a majority of MLAs declaring themselves to be nationalist

(2) Consistent support in opinion polls over a period of at least 18 months for a united Ireland

(3) A detailed roadmap and explanation of the implications of unity for Government finances, health, education, tax, social welfare etc. We do not need another situation like the Brexit empty shelves we have this month because people didn't understand what would happen.

Good post blanch. That’s a pretty high bar for them. They’d need to learn the Fosbury Flop, cause they are a long way off currently

Junkyard Tom

downcow wrote: »

There were 30% of the population discriminated against in ni, but the discrimination was at a level that they managed to prosper and increase to 50%.

This is a ridiculous fault in your reasoning (post hoc, ergo propter hoc) that I've little doubt you're produce again in the future. The slave population in the US increased year-on-year, was that because they prospered? That's a rhetorical question, you need not embarrass yourself by trying to answer it.

There were just 10% of the population discriminated against, but the discrimination was so effective and extreme that they diminished to 3% of the population.

There are many scholars out there who have looked at those numbers and provided explanations for them, none of them would stand over 'extreme discrimination' as a reason.