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Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

[Deleted User]

Is there another way of looking at it?
It’s still very, very divided, and actually seems to be getting more polarized over the last five years. It’s economy is woeful, very heavily dependent on the public sector.
Unionists are making plans to celebrate its centenary, but there seems to be very little to be happy with, certainly far less than the Republic or the rest of the UK.
No point in arguing about a border poll on this thread, but is there any possible way of looking at NI as a social, political and economic failure?

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maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

So where does the expense of running NI go?

the expense of running a 6 county statelet that was never designed to exist on its own? Are you really asking that question?

The money will be needed to create ONE ireland, with one government and one system nor th and south. the 6 county statelet and its security costs won't exist.

It will cost money all the same to create a UI - but again, this is why the first step is a countrywide discussion. Dont put the cart before the horse.

Personally, I expect Britain to pay a substantial fee for creating NI in the first place. And are you telling me you wont get investment into the new country Ireland would become? Nevermind fundraising in the US.

those are quick thoughts off the top of my head. Imagine what resources could be put together if people actually discussed the idea.

With your attitude we would all still be living in caves as everything would have been impossible or too expensive to consider doing.

AngeloArgue

tom1ie wrote: »

What about the burden that will befall my fellow citizens south of the current border to pay for this of which you might be one?
It’s not callous it’s a common sense approach.

If we unite we will share our fate and fortunes.

Countries all over the world have gone to the brink many times. Ireland itself went from being in reasonable comfort as part of United Kingdom in the early 1900s to great upheaval in the 1920s. Much more so than any envisaged cost of unification now. Why did our recent ancestors put themselves in so much bother?

The question of unification runs much deeper than pure economics. It is foremost a question of national identity.

ittakestwo

NI would also be joining the EU on the ROI terms in case of a UI. That would mean 13% corporation tax. That alone turned the ROI from a borderline second world country in the 80's to one of the richest today. So presumably this has to be factored into the economic discussion too.

tom1ie

Fionn1952 wrote: »

You reckon it is impossible to reform NI? I'd imagine it would take quite some time, but yes I reckon it is feasible. The people from the North aren't some sort of neanderthal-esque group incapable of contributing to an economy given appropriate opportunity you know?

Again, we're back to your over simplified attempts to treat an economy like a household budget.

Let's put aside our disagreement on whether it is possible to reform the NI economy (I can't quite work out how you square your notion that the NI economy can't be changed with the fact that it was previously economically more significant than Dublin, but we'll park that), if we hypothetically say that it could be reformed to return to being an economic contributer to our budget, would it make sense to pay for it with national debt while money is cheap and allow future generations to enjoy the payoff on that investment?

Actually I never said it couldn’t be reformed.
I said it will take time.
I also said we would have a recurring cost until the reform took place.
I then also questioned our track record in reforming our own PS.
can you guarantee NI will return to profit? of course not.
It’s a gamble.

Junkyard Tom

AngeloArgue wrote: »

The question of unification runs much deeper than pure economics. It is foremost a question of national identity.

For me a United Ireland largely a moral issue. The division of our nation, and treatment of our people in the northeast, by sectarian counter-revolutionaries, is a wound that will fester until it is healed by unification. There will still be a scar after unification but that too will fade with time.

Fionn1952

tom1ie wrote: »

Actually I never said it couldn’t be reformed.
I said it will take time.
I also said we would have a recurring cost until the reform took place.
I then also questioned our track record in reforming our own PS.
can you guarantee NI will return to profit? of course not.
It’s a gamble.

Can you guarantee the ROI economy won't totally collapse? Can you guarantee that you won't be hit by a bus crossing the road tomorrow? Can you guarantee that humanity won't be wiped out by an asteroid in the next twenty years?

When you set the bar at the level you would like, no one would ever invest in anything. Imagine what our economy would look like if a few MNCs took your advice, like if Intel refused to invest the billions they are right now unless we could guarantee their next generation of chips would outsell AMD....

tom1ie

AngeloArgue wrote: »

If we unite we will share our fate and fortunes.

Countries all over the world have gone to the brink many times. Ireland itself went from being in reasonable comfort as part of United Kingdom in the early 1900s to great upheaval in the 1920s. Much more so than any envisaged cost of unification now. Why did our recent ancestors put themselves in so much bother?

The question of unification runs much deeper than pure economics. It is foremost a question of national identity.

Well if it costs too much and taxes have to be raised and services cut national identity won’t really help us that much.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

Well if it costs too much and taxes have to be raised and services cut national identity won’t really help us that much.

dont you worry about it. the whole idea has obviously gone way way way over your head

tom1ie

maccored wrote: »

dont you worry about it. the whole idea has obviously gone way way way over your head

I’ll have to worry about it if I have to pay more tax or I’m impacted by service cuts, but I suppose that’s gone over your head chief.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

I’ll have to worry about it if I have to pay more tax or I’m impacted by service cuts, but I suppose that’s gone over your head chief.

why? to pay for what will be a non existent NI? :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

tom1ie wrote: »

I’ll have to worry about it if I have to pay more tax or I’m impacted by service cuts, but I suppose that’s gone over your head chief.

Where do you think the 500 million that Michael Martin is putting in andthe money to cover Erasmus in the north is coming from? Plus the money NI is costing us as it limps along in a failed state and the chances that that gets worse and impacts us more?

tom1ie

maccored wrote: »

why? to pay for what will be a non existent NI? :rolleyes:

We have to take over the cost of running it lol!! Wow.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

We have to take over the cost of running it lol!! Wow.

but it wont exist. neither will its security costs. have you read any opposing post to your simplistic mathematics? Wow is right - it really HAS gone over your head!!

tom1ie

Listen lads good chat I have to head off and do something else but look best of luck. This was a real eye opener.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

Listen lads good chat I have to head off and do something else but look best of luck. This was a real eye opener.

aye

tom1ie

maccored wrote: »

but it wont exist. neither will its security costs. have you read any opposing post to your simplistic mathematics? Wow is right - it really HAS gone over your head!!

Ok one last one.
The cost doeant just disappear someone has to pay for the PS jobs currently in existence in NI! Who pays this? Is of course via raised taxes. Not that hard to understand really.

jm08

tom1ie wrote: »

Well if it costs too much and taxes have to be raised and services cut national identity won’t really help us that much.

Bearing in mind that Cosgrave agreed to the Border in exchange for the British Government cancelling the new republic's national debt, I don't think now is the time for anyone from the south banging on about the cost of reuniting the country.

AngeloArgue

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

For me a United Ireland largely a moral issue. The division of our nation, and treatment of our people in the northeast, by sectarian counter-revolutionaries, is a wound that will fester until it is healed by unification. There will still be a scar after unification but that too will fade with time.

Partition was predicated on there being a population in the North Eastern counties who refused to be forced into an Irish free state. That could be argued as respecting a people's right to self determination. The problem arises when you have a significant minority living among them that does not share their sense of identity.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok one last one.
The cost doeant just disappear someone has to pay for the PS jobs currently in existence in NI! Who pays this? Is of course via raised taxes. Not that hard to understand really.

it seems to be for you. there will be ONE PS. Not all the people int he north (or the south for that matter) will keep the PS job - though that depends on how long the process takes. It could takes decades which - with planning - would make your concern moot.

Did you hear the whooshing sound yet as that shoots over your head too?

downcow

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The only stable alternative to reunification would be a financially viable NI that works for everyone.

If Scotland gets independence then there is no justification for Westminster to continue to subsidise NI. And that issue will come front and centre if Scotland leave.

Since Brexit Gibraltar has joined Schengen, the Falklands the Channel Islands and other dependencies have been hit with tariffs on seafood exports to the EU. Aruba's lobsters are OK because of a US-EU deal on lobsters, but the UK wasn't involved. The British Virgin Islands , Guernsey and Jersey are now on the EU's tax evasion radar. The pattern here is that England isn't looking out for the other nations or islands. You could even include Cornwall in that given dearth of EU fund replacement or how the shellfish and other fisheries down there lost out.

Ah but we have the gfa Thanks to Gerry and john it’s all in our hands

AngeloArgue

maccored wrote: »

why? to pay for what will be a non existent NI? :rolleyes:

Exactly.

If we are United then there will be no "us" paying for "them".

All our finances, incomes, costs and debts will be united as well

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Ah but we have the gfa Thanks to Gerry and john it’s all in our hands

It's in the hands of 11% by the latest up to date polling.

maccored

downcow wrote: »

Ah but we have the gfa Thanks to Gerry and john it’s all in our hands

now yer getting it

tom1ie

maccored wrote: »

it seems to be for you. there will be ONE PS. Not all the people int he north (or the south for that matter) will keep the PS job - though that depends on how long the process takes. It could takes decades which - with planning - would make your concern moot.

Did you hear the whooshing sound yet as that shoots over your head too?

It sounds more like alarm bells but sure look you think you know more. So work away there fella.

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

Ah but we have the gfa Thanks to Gerry and john it’s all in our hands

And that's how it should be. Vanishingly few have a contrary view. I believe those whose hands it is will vote for a New Ireland. Brexit has given me this confidence.

maccored

tom1ie wrote: »

It sounds more like alarm bells but sure look you think you know more. So work away there fella.

at least im using my brain.

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He was giving you the benefit of the doubt what with the Protestant parliament for a Protestant people, gerrymandering, 1 man 1 vote issue, jobs for prods (which ironically spectacularly backfired) and suppression of civil rights. Housing favouritism.

Do you know why that statement was made about a prod parliament etc. Check your history about what it was a response to and then bury your head in shame

downcow

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And that's how it should be. Vanishingly few have a contrary view. I believe those whose hands it is will vote for a New Ireland. Brexit has given me this confidence.

Sure you put your confidence in brexit. I’ll stick with the data from polls

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

Do you know why that statement was made about a prod parliament etc. Check your history about what it was a response to and then bury your head in shame

Irrelevant. That has no impact on the point I was making when it comes to the Nationalists in Northern Ireland. And I see you didn't even bother to defend the other misuses of power.

[Deleted User]

downcow wrote: »

Sure you put your confidence in brexit. I’ll stick with the data from polls

The same polls that had 17% yes to unification and 65% against in January 2013 to 42% for and 47% against most recently. Those polls you're confident in? Bless.