schmittel wrote: » Sure. I can do that. The question is are the majority of underoccupied houses in rural areas? 7/10 people in Ireland live in underoccupied houses. Eurostat data. 3/10 people in Ireland live in rural areas. Eurostat data. Ergo even if 100% of people living in rural Ireland lived in an underoccupied house it is still mathematically impossible for the majority of the underoccupied houses to be in rural Ireland. QED.
Timing belt wrote: » You can't move on because you feelings got hurt so you will keep harping on about the same thing because you think you are right. I have challenged you to find data that does not look at no of rooms if you can't find it then move on.... your anger and need to be right is funny to look at :D:D:D
Timing belt wrote: » The data is telling us that we are consistent over the past 10 years and that most of the under-occupied houses are in rural areas with people 65+
schmittel wrote: » Really? That’s not what it is telling me. One of us is interpreting the data to suit our narrative. Of course, it might be me, but the stats site not very tablet friendly so will have to wait until the morning until I can look at it closer before I can check if I’m the blinkered/thick one!
fin12 wrote: » Can anyone explain in a global pandemic how house prices have actually increased? Has this happened in any other country in the world?
fin12 wrote: Can anyone explain in a global pandemic how house prices have actually increased? Has this happened in any other country in the world?
combat14 wrote: looks like this pandemic wont be over a while
Deleted User wrote: » People haven't seen the effect of it. PUP payments, mortgage freezes, free money, nothing has changed. Yet.
Timing belt wrote: » Central Banks Q1 Bulletin released todayhttps://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2021/quarterly-bulletin-q1-2021.pdf?sfvrsn=5 In relation to property this is the main elementResidential property "Construction sector activity rebounded following the closure of sites in April and May 2020 (Figure 8). While housing output is down on preCOVID expectations, completions are on course to reach approximately 18,500 new units in 2020. New housing starts are estimated to have numbered around 22,000 by the end of 2020. Factoring in the temporary closure of non-essential construction for January 2021, new house completions of around 21,500 and 23,500 are forecast for 2021 and 2022, respectively. If site closures extend significantly beyond the current announced period, these forecasts would be negatively impacted. " Unemployment is expected to increase to 9.3% in 2021 from 6.2% in 2020 GDP for 2020 estimated at 2.5% (3.8% 2021) modified domestic demand for 2020 -7.1% (2.9% 2021) consumer spending down 8.3%Mortgages New mortgage lending dropped substantially in the initial phase of the pandemic, before recovering in the second half of the year. In September, new mortgage agreements were back on par with March 2020, but 13.8 per cent below 2019 levels. By end-November, mortgage agreements had further increased, rising by 22.3 per cent from September’s level, and were marginally higher than in November 2019. Forward looking indicators also point to a solid recovery in mortgage market activity, with approvals 24.3 per cent higher on an annual basis in November. The higher approval numbers may be inflated by re-approvals of applications that expired during the earlier lockdown-periods in 2020. Banks are also reporting an increase in demand and this is reflective of a less adverse impact of the COVID-19 shock on the demand for housing than was originally expected at the onset of the pandemic. Think that is all the main points but will go through the report tomorrow in more detail
bubblypop wrote: » Well, there are not as many properties in the market. People haven't felt any pinch yet as the government are keeping the economy going. I imagine the effect of this pandemic won't be seen economically until at least 2022 and on.
fliball123 wrote: » What do you want the government to do.. Say here feck it lads lets not take the money at zero % let all the companies go to the wall and lets rewind the clock back 12 years and start cutting everything and upping taxes..The rest of the world are doing exactly what we are doing and Austerity was a proven failure. There will be no effect as the debt will be rolled over again and again and when enough time has passed it will not be as big a problem as it is now. You only have to look at the last crash we came out of it with 200billion of debt and people were saying we are doomed yet 10/12 years on the debt is/was being serviced and it didnt really have much of a sway with our finances in that 10/12 years we managed to plug a 20 Billion deficit to actually being able to have a 1.5Billion rainy day fund in 2019 along with being able to top up over and over again in areas like health. So another 30 Billion on top of this is not going to break the bank here
Wanderer78 wrote: » ...our growing deficits arent really a problem anyway, private debt is the far more dangerous one, and would more than likely cause far more serious problems, if we cant manage to continually service them
beauf wrote: » They build them too small, and generally poor quality with problems with ventilation, sound pollution etc. They have tiny living spaces.
Zenify wrote: » Debt cannot keep growing indefinitely at hight rates. I understand the principle of what economists say about it but they aren't forecasting the unforeseen. What about the next crisis and the one after that? With higher debts we have less firepower for each new unforeseen crises. Eventually the straw will break the camels back ðŸ«
fliball123 wrote: » If we all took that approach no one would ever take a risk at any time. But to put it in context in the last crash we should not of borrowed the 200 billion for banks and for the ballooning of ps pay and welfare that preceded the last crash. The banks were an absolute bunch of underhanded thieves and the ps pay /pensions and welfare were not just adding to the debt but the deficit at least the banks were a one off payment. We were also being charged a fairly high interest rate at the time. So to look at the 30 billion we are borrowing between 2020 and 2021 To get 30 billion of an interest free loan at a time when the government have stopped a fair % of people working and while there is a world wide pandemic is actually the correct thing to do.
Zenify wrote: Debt cannot keep growing indefinitely at hight rates. I understand the principle of what economists say about it but they aren't forecasting the unforeseen. What about the next crisis and the one after that? With higher debts we have less firepower for each new unforeseen crises. Eventually the straw will break the camels back ðŸ«
PropQueries wrote: » According to RTE yesterday in relation to Cairn Homes proposed development of the site they bought from RTE for c. €100 million back in 2017: "An Bord Pleanala is expected to consent next month to a High Court order quashing Cairn Homes permission for 614 residential units on former RTE lands. Cairn Homes had been granted full planning permission by An Bord Pleanála last September to develop the 8.7 acre site at Montrose in Dublin 4. The company had planned to build 611 apartments, as well as town houses, a new public park, a childcare facility, cafes, and leisure facilities on the site." According to Cairn Homes, they understand: "that the design and the consented scheme is not at issue", so it will be interesting to know why the planning permission may be quashed. Link to article on RTE.ie here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0121/1191186-cairn-homes-montrose-site/
fliball123 wrote: » so are you just going to ignore the fact that you were wrong with your assumption of 21k house completions in 2020 it was down at 18.5k I said it would be around the 17/18k mark.https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2021/quarterly-bulletin-q1-2021.pdf?sfvrsn=5
PropQueries wrote: » Never once stated 21k. I stated c. 20k, which isn't too far off and much closer than your c. 14k figure that you were putting out a few months back The c. 21k figure I used was the 2019 figure and I was comparing it to the nonsense some were posting here that practically no new houses were being built during 2020 and I was stating that we were still building a similar number of houses compared to the previous year. My c. 20k figure was very close IMO Taking out the much lower net inward migration and students coming into Dublin during 2020, the 18.5k figure put out by the Central Bank for 2020 makes us in a much better position, housing supply wise, than if covid-19 never happened IMO.
fliball123 wrote: If we all took that approach no one would ever take a risk at any time. But to put it in context in the last crash we should not of borrowed the 200 billion for banks and for the ballooning of ps pay and welfare that preceded the last crash. The banks were an absolute bunch of underhanded thieves and the ps pay /pensions and welfare were not just adding to the debt but the deficit at least the banks were a one off payment. We were also being charged a fairly high interest rate at the time. So to look at the 30 billion we are borrowing between 2020 and 2021 .
Villa05 wrote: » You do realise that what you describe was a direct result of unaffordable housing. Pay had to rise to try and keep pace with those house prices
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