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Golf Lockdown Discussion No discussion of breaking Restrictions

Keano

Time to discuss what golf is going to look like for next year, maybe more, who knows.

What is your club doing? What would you like to see happen?

Mod note: we have done to death the restrictions(5k jumping to 20k in June) so this is not a thread for discussing that topic, take it to COVID-19 forum

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spacecoyote

Golfhead65 wrote: »

Lisheen only up the road from you Space

Is it open for new membership Golfhead? Also they took on crazy numbers last year didnt they, how were timesheets holding up?

Seve OB

spacecoyote wrote: »

Is it open for new membership Golfhead? Also they took on crazy numbers last year didnt they, how were timesheets holding up?

i know someone who went there and i think the consensus is that ultimately they won't be staying.

not yet

Will driving ranges be open before courses ?

Golfhead65

spacecoyote wrote: »

Is it open for new membership Golfhead? Also they took on crazy numbers last year didnt they, how were timesheets holding up?

You will always get on timesheet even through waiting list, the problem before was that anyone booking in could book 3 other people in on the line thus closing it to everyone else. This practice has now been stopped and you can only book yourself and 1 other, obviously with no golf atm we can't see how well it's going to work but I think it will make a big difference.. Yes they took on a lot of new members during last lockdown and a lot were so called pay and play membership and thus clogged up timesheets. These type of memberships are now closed and they have been encouraged to go either 5 day or full as the price per round has been increased so the value is not there. Alan M of our postcode joined last year and having played with him a bit since he joined and we partnered in Barton Cup, he is very happy up there and was delighted as a newbie to have been picked on a few interclub teams

spacecoyote

Before the last lockdown they had changed the rules to be you could cross the county border for your home club. If they keep that rule, will definitely stick to my own club

blue note

Golfhead65 wrote: »

You will always get on timesheet even through waiting list, the problem before was that anyone booking in could book 3 other people in on the line thus closing it to everyone else. This practice has now been stopped and you can only book yourself and 1 other, obviously with no golf atm we can't see how well it's going to work but I think it will make a big difference.. Yes they took on a lot of new members during last lockdown and a lot were so called pay and play membership and thus clogged up timesheets. These type of memberships are now closed and they have been encouraged to go either 5 day or full as the price per round has been increased so the value is not there. Alan M of our postcode joined last year and having played with him a bit since he joined and we partnered in Barton Cup, he is very happy up there and was delighted as a newbie to have been picked on a few interclub teams

There will be a couple of years of correction in golf clubs from Covid's effect on golf. On the one hand, clubs have lost huge revenue from being closed. On the other clubs have taken in heaps of new members. I imagine gradually the numbers playing will drop and the amount each person is playing will decline. But I still think over the next couple of years we'll see timesheets far busier than they used to be. A lot who took up golf will keep it up, there will be very few foreign holidays this year, people might not be able to resume their other hobbies as quickly.

But clubs needed more members and will need to catch up on revenue to recover, so I think we'll just need to grin and bear it for a couple of years. But I'd say if people are looking for clubs with lots of space on the timesheets they'll struggle. And if you find one you should ask yourself why!

gypsy79

The leaky leaky leak machine is hinting at JUNE reopening

Time for people to stand up to this BS

Old people die. I possibly only have a few years of healthy living remaining. I dont want to be locked away for them

ClutchIt

not yet wrote: »

Will driving ranges be open before courses ?

No. They lockdown rules are the same as the golf course.

Bill Ponderosa

gypsy79 wrote: »

The leaky leaky leak machine is hinting at JUNE reopening

Time for people to stand up to this BS

Old people die. I possibly only have a few years of healthy living remaining. I dont want to be locked away for them

Who's the Leaky machine is that varadker?

Pdoghue

gypsy79 wrote: »

Old people die. I possibly only have a few years of healthy living remaining. I dont want to be locked away for them

Explain that rationale if you would please.

Ivefoundgod

Pdoghue wrote: »

Explain that rationale if you would please.

Is this not our anti-vax/lockdown friend from the last time? Wouldn't waste your time.

blue note

I was going to ask here if anyone was hearing any leaks. I suspect the truth is that no-one knows what the plan to reopen golf is. So I won't react to the June reopening because I'd say there's no truth to it. And to be honest I'd say it's a long way off the mark.

My money is still on march for golf to start back. It could be some form of restricted golf. My hope is that it's no green fees / opens because that's the only one that makes any real sense to me. But they'll have to start reopening things at some stage. And I'd say golf will be pretty early on.

[Deleted User]

gypsy79 wrote: »

The leaky leaky leak machine is hinting at JUNE reopening

Time for people to stand up to this BS

Old people die. I possibly only have a few years of healthy living remaining. I dont want to be locked away for them

While we all want to be back playing as soon as is reasonable there is no way the current restrictions will be in place until June, absolutely no way.

gypsy79

I would hope given the restrictions we were supposed be released into in December that golf will be allowed at first re-opening

Our government work by leaking to papers and then judging reaction. Expect many more leaks via newspapers over next couple of weeks

gypsy79

Pdoghue wrote: »

Explain that rationale if you would please.

Old people die. QALY should be the measure used to make decisions

I have stage 4 cancer. I want to live the last years of my life

Ollieboy

I think the situation is so bad nobody is even discussing reopen anything yet.

I’m expecting the situation to be extend for another 3 weeks and that will bring us to the end of the school midterm. Until then it’s all guessing but new cases aren’t dropping enough so people need to kop on.

On positive news it seems manufacturing of vaccines is happening faster then expected and once we get 30% vaccine the death rate should drop by 90% because this will be most vulnerable people.

Macker1

The quicker the vaccine rollout happens the quicker the country will start re-opening and golf will be early in that given its outdoor nature.

gypsy79

Ollieboy wrote: »

I’m expecting the situation to be extend for another 3 weeks and that will bring us to the end of the school midterm. Until then it’s all guessing but new cases aren’t dropping enough so people need to kop on.

How can you be taken seriously after saying that. They are dropping very very fast.

Jan 8 (5 day case average) - 6799
Jan 14 (5 day case average) - 4466
Jan 20 (5 day case average) - 2556

That implies an R rate around 0.6

So if that continues, then around Feb 1st (in 12 days) the case number should be below 1000. I calc it as 920.

twounderpar

Simon Coveney told Fine Gael party tonight that lockdown measures will be reviewed again at the end of February and that there is no
expectation of any substantive reopening of economy before April. He said that the slower than expected decline in case numbers and
pressure on the health service were the reasons why this lockdown will be with us for some time yet.

kippy

gypsy79 wrote: »

How can you be taken seriously after saying that. They are dropping very very fast.

Jan 8 (5 day case average) - 6799
Jan 14 (5 day case average) - 4466
Jan 20 (5 day case average) - 2556

That implies an R rate around 0.6

So if that continues, then around Feb 1st (in 12 days) the case number should be below 1000. I calc it as 920.

Would be great to see less than 1000 cases a day before Feb. However I think the numbers in hospital and ICU, availability of beds and the associated lag will also come into play. It won't just be the daily headline case numbers that will dictate policy.

bailey99

Lockdown four weeks for all of February. At the end of February they will ask for 4 more weeks and then start reopening after Easter. There's no opening and then another lockdown.

This is the last lockdown but it's gonna be 12 weeks.

You really think they are gonna reopen golf before schools fully open? Or when there's a thousand cases a day??? Get real.

kippy

bailey99 wrote: »

Lockdown four weeks for all of February. At the end of February they will ask for 4 more weeks and then start reopening after Easter. There's no opening and then another lockdown.

This is the last lockdown but it's gonna be 12 weeks.

You really think they are gonna reopen golf before schools fully open? Or when there's a thousand cases a day??? Get real.

Golf (and schools) have been open with 1000 cases a day - so as a figure on it's own it would be plausible. However based on the other key numbers it's not likely to happen this time out.

bailey99

There is no way in hell they are opening up and a few weeks later going back into lockdown.

Easter Sunday is 4th April. All the signs and indicators point to lockdown til then.

redzerdrog

I cant see any reduction in restrictions until we hitting less than 300 cases per day

bailey99

redzerdrog wrote: »

I cant see any reduction in restrictions until we hitting less than 300 cases per day

Agreed.

Ollieboy

gypsy79 wrote: »

How can you be taken seriously after saying that. They are dropping very very fast.

Jan 8 (5 day case average) - 6799
Jan 14 (5 day case average) - 4466
Jan 20 (5 day case average) - 2556

That implies an R rate around 0.6

So if that continues, then around Feb 1st (in 12 days) the case number should be below 1000. I calc it as 920.

I see you left the increase out from the 19th to the 20th....

How does that look like in your calculations come 1st Feb?

What you really need to work your figures off his the number of weekly tests by positive rate. Test numbers have dropped very little, thankfully the positive rate is coming down.

You also need to examine the other data coming from GPs in relation to referrals plus the increase rate of other variants in testing. The other variants will increase the numbers over time as it spreads, I believe it’s roughly only 50% of positive tests at the moment and as that increases it will make numbers harder to fall without people fulling buy-in to lockdown.

Of course you will see a drop from 8000 but go back to the last lockdown and see how the numbers stopped dropping at a certain level.

I don’t actually disagree that we will get back to 1000, but that’s still roughly 20 deaths a day.

I personally can’t except that!

gypsy79

Ollieboy wrote: »

I see you left the increase out from the 19th to the 20th....

How does that look like in your calculations come 1st Feb?

What you really need to work your figures off his the number of weekly tests by positive rate. Test numbers have dropped very little, thankfully the positive rate is coming down.

You also need to examine the other data coming from GPs in relation to referrals plus the increase rate of other variants in testing. The other variants will increase the numbers over time as it spreads, I believe it’s roughly only 50% of positive tests at the moment and as that increases it will make numbers harder to fall without people fulling buy-in to lockdown.

Of course you will see a drop from 8000 but go back to the last lockdown and see how the numbers stopped dropping at a certain level.

I don’t actually disagree that we will get back to 1000, but that’s still roughly 20 deaths a day.

I personally can’t except that!

Its a 5 day rolling average so the increase from 19th to 20th is included. Ups and downs in days are statistically likely which is why I am using 5 day rolling

What is not "likely" is 13, 8 and then 93 deaths. The best model I can think of to model this is a time dependent Poisson. The 8 and 13 are so far in the tail the chances of them happening together is miniscule. It is clear to anyone trained that they held back deaths to announce "record" 93 2 days ago

By the way I hate feeling like this. But the behaviour of our government in making up statistics is infuriating. To the trained eye some of the stunts they are pulling is infuriating and it also shows how they have the Irish media in their pockets

I have assumed a 6 day incubation period to calculate that R number.

But the theory still remains that in 12 days (above 8th-20th), which is now Feb 1st that the number should be 2556*(2566/6799) = 960.9

R can be estimated as (N2/N1)^(1/((T2-T1)/I)

I is incubation period. So in case (2566/6799)^(1/(12/6)) = 0.614. But the incubation period is not needed when you have all the numbers

Sorry for geeking out

Roger_007

gypsy79 wrote: »

Its a 5 day rolling average so the increase from 19th to 20th is included. Ups and downs in days are statistically likely which is why I am using 5 day rolling

What is not "likely" is 13, 8 and then 93 deaths. The best model I can think of to model this is a time dependent Poisson. The 8 and 13 are so far in the tail the chances of them happening together is miniscule. It is clear to anyone trained that they held back deaths to announce "record" 93 2 days ago

By the way I hate feeling like this. But the behaviour of our government in making up statistics is infuriating. To the trained eye some of the stunts they are pulling is infuriating and it also shows how they have the Irish media in their pockets

I have assumed a 6 day incubation period to calculate that R number.

But the theory still remains that in 12 days (above 8th-20th), which is now Feb 1st that the number should be 2556*(2566/6799) = 960.9

R can be estimated as (N2/N1)^(1/((T2-T1)/I)

I is incubation period. So in case (2566/6799)^(1/(12/6)) = 0.614. But the incubation period is not needed when you have all the numbers

Sorry for geeking out

gypsy79

Roger_007 wrote: »

Sorry I am an actuary!! And I tried to keep that simple

CalamariFritti

There are now so many studies on the escalation curve of restrictions and lockdown and their effect on the numbers that even the most ignorant health advisor can no longer overlook them. 5km, 2km, stay at home, dont walk the beach, dont play golf has had zero effect on covid regardless what country we're looking at. We've been at the edge of reason (and sometimes beyond) for some time now and 2021 will be the year where this is going to change one way or the other.

If we're not back out on the course within the next 3-4 weeks we might as well just pack it in.