Northern Ireland- a failure 99 years on?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The GFA states very clearly that if a majority vote for a UI, the onus is on the British and Irish governments to make that happen.
A 'UI', nit a re-partitioned island.

Please lay out what would be involved in a devolved region.

Tell me where it says that parties cannot work towards devolution post UI? Are are you just making stuff up again?

downcow wrote: »

Would you be proposing the guards police loyalist areas?

I think there would be a new police force encompassing the men and women of the PSNI and Gardai. They would police as they have done up to now. Loyalist and republican areas.

downcow wrote: »

The agreement is very clear but it doesn’t say anything about the day after. You were saying the other day that the gfa has no standing after a United ireland. I agree with you.

Surely you would not suggest that people could not work towards getting as much autonomy as possible.
I think you are one of the very few, even on here, who think there will be no devolution for regions

The GFA states very clearly that if a majority vote for a UI, the onus is on the British and Irish governments to make that happen.
A 'UI', nit a re-partitioned island.

Please lay out what would be involved in a devolved region.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Have to say as notions go it is utterly fabulous.

You propose saying to a majority that vote for a UI...'sorry, but in order not to upset some people (who already agreed to a UI happening when a majority voted for it) you are still partitioned'.

Please tell me that you are not proposing this, and lay out exactly what you are proposing.

Would you be proposing the guards police loyalist areas?

BonnieSituation

saabsaab wrote: »

Sounds a bit like the Israeli argument about the Arabs only have to be victorious once but they have to win every time.

Was it not the IRA in their statement after the Brighton bomb:

"Today we have been unlucky. But we only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky always..."

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Have to say as notions go it is utterly fabulous.

You propose saying to a majority that vote for a UI...'sorry, but in order not to upset some people (who already agreed to a UI happening when a majority voted for it) you are still partitioned'.

The agreement is very clear but it doesn’t say anything about the day after. You were saying the other day that the gfa has no standing after a United ireland. I agree with you.

Surely you would not suggest that people could not work towards getting as much autonomy as possible.
I think you are one of the very few, even on here, who think there will be no devolution for regions

downcow wrote: »

Tom where do you get the idea that the day after your hypothetical UI that there can be no aspiration for autonomy and a homeland for Northern Irish.
It’s a bit like your football analogy. We will definitely get some level of devolution which we will keep chipping away and increasing until we get autonomy.
I can’t see it taking 100 years either.

Have to say as notions go it is utterly fabulous.

You propose saying to a majority that vote for a UI...'sorry, but in order not to upset some people (who already agreed to a UI happening when a majority voted for it) you are still partitioned'.

Please tell me that you are not proposing this, and lay out exactly what you are proposing.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Unionists could still agitate for Union with Britain after a UI vote

I think it is much more likely that unionists will agitate for increasing autonomy for an agreed area in the north east. Roi will have to bend over backwards to not be seen as the oppressor of a people who had been taken over by them.

I am curious, do you think the guards are going to police loyalist areas without very major street disturbances and officers being shot, and undoubtedly loyalist getting killed at the hands of guards?
Mayhem and the potential to escalate completely out of control and no way to get the lid back on.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

This is anti-democratic nonsense. If 50% +1 is good enough to prolong the Union then 50% +1 will end it. As Francie suggests above partition is the wellspring of the issues in the north, take away the border and the majority of the issues go with it, certainly belligerent Unionism would be emasculated entirely.

Not at all. The issues remain exactly the same - exacerbated even, as they are simply transferred from one jurisdiction to another. If anything it would worsen matters, as the certain modus vivendi that has settled on the province would be disturbed.
This is the point of the no united Ireland without a united Northern Ireland comment - it is a comment on democracy at all, rather on the question of unification being no solution in itself without prior resolution of the problems internally. This resolution of the internal stresses will come about, but being due to the singular position in which NI now finds itself, unification and detaching from the UK would undo that basis for its internal unity, thus making island unity unattractive to all but the most brainless terrorist end of the republican spectrum.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I too believe that, if a referendum were to be held soon, every Unionist would turn out to vote to continue UK jurisdiction while not every non-Unionist would, but you miss the point somewhat.

The first border poll is about starting the game, as it were. Unionists would probably score the first goal but that's just the beginning of the match and for a UI it requires just one goal to be scored and the game is over.

It would be interesting to see unionists having to defend 'the union' which they'd surely make an utter mess of. Also I'd say there'd be worldwide, and painfully for Unionists, British support for a United Ireland.

Tom where do you get the idea that the day after your hypothetical UI that there can be no aspiration for autonomy and a homeland for Northern Irish.
It’s a bit like your football analogy. We will definitely get some level of devolution which we will keep chipping away and increasing until we get autonomy.
I can’t see it taking 100 years either.

Rodin wrote: »

Already majority nationalist in Stormont, majority MPs from NI are nationalist also.
.

Rodin. Are you just talking nonsense for a laugh?

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

One goal as you say, would do it, but that is one of the reasons discouraging support for it - its a one way street, and people are generally very reluctant to go down them.

Unionists could still agitate for Union with Britain after a UI vote albiet from a much reduced ratio of the population.

so many catholics, for want of a better description would prefer to reap the benefits of remaining part of the UK, and close integration with Rep of I and the EU as the Brexit deal has gifted them.

I'm sure the argument for continuing English handouts can be easily matched by guarantees of a prosperous United Ireland. The main problem would be convincing those from a Catholic/Nationalist background who work for the Public/Civil service to vote for a UI. That's why I contend that Unionists would be better to get a poll out of the way sooner rather than later as I feel it is inevitable that the English will soon seek to make savings on its outgoings.

"no united Ireland without a united Northern Ireland."

This is anti-democratic nonsense. If 50% +1 is good enough to prolong the Union then 50% +1 will end it. As Francie suggests above partition is the wellspring of the issues in the north, take away the border and the majority of the issues go with it, certainly belligerent Unionism would be emasculated entirely.

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

"The lesson from 2019 is that the public holds an opposite, venerable idea: no united Ireland without a united Northern Ireland."

This is another of those invented 'obstacles' placed in front of the oncoming train by fearful partitionists.

You'll walk a long way before you'll find anyone in NI, the border areas who EVER believed that NI could be united.
The reason it cannot is partition itself.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I too believe that, if a referendum were to be held soon, every Unionist would turn out to vote to continue UK jurisdiction while not every non-Unionist would, but you miss the point somewhat.

The first border poll is about starting the game, as it were. Unionists would probably score the first goal but that's just the beginning of the match and for a UI it requires just one goal to be scored and the game is over.

It would be interesting to see unionists having to defend 'the union' which they'd surely make an utter mess of. Also I'd say there'd be worldwide, and painfully for Unionists, British support for a United Ireland.

British support for a United Ireland is already there, only it cannot be officially voiced. They would be delighted to have anyone take the problem off their hands.

One goal as you say, would do it, but that is one of the reasons discouraging support for it - its a one way street, and people are generally very reluctant to go down them.
It is a troubling fact for the united Irelanders though, that so many catholics, for want of a better description would prefer to reap the benefits of remaining part of the UK, and close integration with Rep of I and the EU as the Brexit deal has gifted them.

Emerson had a good article as always a few days ago in the IT, and had couple of good lines summarising:

"Ireland’s Future says it is anti-democratic to describe a poll as “divisive” but that is a valid objection if the only purpose of the call is to keep the pot boiling just to keep an agenda in the frame."

"The lesson from 2019 is that the public holds an opposite, venerable idea: no united Ireland without a united Northern Ireland."

saabsaab

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I too believe that, if a referendum were to be held soon, every Unionist would turn out to vote to continue UK jurisdiction while not every non-Unionist would, but you miss the point somewhat.

The first border poll is about starting the game, as it were. Unionists would probably score the first goal but that's just the beginning of the match and for a UI it requires just one goal to be scored and the game is over.

It would be interesting to see unionists having to defend 'the union' which they'd surely make an utter mess of. Also I'd say there'd be worldwide, and painfully for Unionists, British support for a United Ireland.

Sounds a bit like the Israeli argument about the Arabs only have to be victorious once but they have to win every time.

Junkyard Tom

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

A comfortable 'remain' vote would confirm unification as not really of interest to any significant majority in Northern Ireland

I too believe that, if a referendum were to be held soon, every Unionist would turn out to vote to continue UK jurisdiction while not every non-Unionist would, but you miss the point somewhat.

The first border poll is about starting the game, as it were. Unionists would probably score the first goal but that's just the beginning of the match and for a UI it requires just one goal to be scored and the game is over.

It would be interesting to see unionists having to defend 'the union' which they'd surely make an utter mess of. Also I'd say there'd be worldwide, and painfully for Unionists, British support for a United Ireland.

Rodin

A United Ireland is inevitable and that's really it.
Already majority nationalist in Stormont, majority MPs from NI are nationalist also.

The writing is on the wall.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/nationalism-union-brexit-b900299.html

George Osbourne not afraid to point the finger or speak the political reality. Anyone talking down the inevitability of this question coming to a head, really is away with the fairies.

Not any more. By unleashing English nationalism, Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade. Northern Ireland is already heading for the exit door. By remaining in the EU single market, it is for all economic intents and purposes now slowly becoming part of a united Ireland. Its prosperity now depends on its relationship with Dublin (and Brussels), not London. The politics will follow.

Northern Irish unionists always feared the mainland was not sufficiently committed to their cause. Now their short-sighted support for Brexit (and unbelievably stupid decision to torpedo Theresa May’s deal that avoided separate Irish arrangements) has made those fears a reality. It pains me to report that most here and abroad will not care

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

I dont think Unionists would really have anything to fear from a border poll anyway. A comfortable 'remain' vote would confirm unification as not really of interest to any significant majority in Northern Ireland, close the topic for any forseeable future, and enable the province to end wasting time on that pointless pursuit.

Unionists fear the conversation. You can see it in downcow's plaintive denials that they are having to confront the possibilities that there will be one.

downcow wrote: »

My goodness Francie. I didn’t realise you were clinging to quite such flimsy straws.
She couldn’t have distanced herself any further from a poll, having been asked a question - do you think unionists should prepare for a poll?
Hate to use my analogy again, but ask any scientist - should NASA prepare for a meteorite strike or for discovering extra-terrestrial life out there? I think you know the answer. - they should prepare for any eventuality including wee green men arriving.

I dont think Unionists would really have anything to fear from a border poll anyway. A comfortable 'remain' vote would confirm unification as not really of interest to any significant majority in Northern Ireland, close the topic for any forseeable future, and enable the province to end wasting time on that pointless pursuit.

downcow wrote: »

have never heard of this guy Francie. Stop it. Throw away the shovel. By trawling for Unknown’s Like this you are demonstrating I am correct about lack of unionist interest in a poll

Haha. You and him could set up a wee discussion group on ni. Here he is expressing his disappointment that everyone in ni didn’t go for the bridge to Scotland idea.
You are in good company. Fanciful like yourself lol

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/if-unionism-wants-bridge-scotland-it-must-support-investment-railways-2934197%3famp

Thought you were a fan of 'devolution'? Have you done a Gavin on that too?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Another of Unionist persuasion discussing the outcome of a border poll. Interesting article and comments, even if the article is doing the Unionist/Partitionist fear thing of trying to re-write the GFA and insist on just re-partitioning.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/19/border-poll-take-stormont-off-the-table/

have never heard of this guy Francie. Stop it. Throw away the shovel. By trawling for Unknown’s Like this you are demonstrating I am correct about lack of unionist interest in a poll

Haha. You and him could set up a wee discussion group on ni. Here he is expressing his disappointment that everyone in ni didn’t go for the bridge to Scotland idea.
You are in good company. Fanciful like yourself lol

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/if-unionism-wants-bridge-scotland-it-must-support-investment-railways-2934197%3famp

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Anyone from the island is fully Irish. Whether a citizen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, or of the Republic of Ireland, they are equally Irish.

The second question if ill posed in its use of 'will' rather than a hypothetical 'would' given its conjectural nature. But allowing for that, I think they would still probably use the term 'British' as a shorthand for still being a citizen of the United Kingdom in such a United Ireland.

They'll be known as the Irish British, which is fine by me and I would imagine the vast vast majority on the island.

downcow wrote: »

My goodness Francie. I didn’t realise you were clinging to quite such flimsy straws.
She couldn’t have distanced herself any further from a poll, having been asked a question - do you think unionists should prepare for a poll?
Hate to use my analogy again, but ask any scientist - should NASA prepare for a meteorite strike or for discovering extra-terrestrial life out there? I think you know the answer. - they should prepare for any eventuality including wee green men arriving.

So they are talking about a boder poll...glad you've come out of denial.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Not sure what 'fully Irish' means. We have all sorts of Irish people here these days, hundreds of thousands of them, Polish Irish, English/Welsh/Scots Irish, Lithuanian Irish, Brazilian Irish, Spanish Irish, Italian Irish, and so on.

What will Unionists call themselves in a United Ireland? I'd say most will return to the Irish Nation that their ancestors had no problem being proud members of.

Anyone from the island is fully Irish. Whether a citizen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, or of the Republic of Ireland, they are equally Irish.

The second question if ill posed in its use of 'will' rather than a hypothetical 'would' given its conjectural nature. But allowing for that, I think they would still probably use the term 'British' as a shorthand for still being a citizen of the United Kingdom in such a United Ireland.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Pedantry knows no bounds.

Here is the quote, from away back in the thread, the one you breezed by. Now if you want to allege that the BT is misquoting Unionists, that is fine but without back up I call that to be just a handy way to deny the fact that Unionists are talking about a border poll and the future.

My goodness Francie. I didn’t realise you were clinging to quite such flimsy straws.
She couldn’t have distanced herself any further from a poll, having been asked a question - do you think unionists should prepare for a poll?
Hate to use my analogy again, but ask any scientist - should NASA prepare for a meteorite strike or for discovering extra-terrestrial life out there? I think you know the answer. - they should prepare for any eventuality including wee green men arriving.

Junkyard Tom

downcow wrote: »

they will vote purely on becoming fully Irish as they clearly do not feel fully Irish currently

Not sure what 'fully Irish' means. We have all sorts of Irish people here these days, hundreds of thousands of them, Polish Irish, English/Welsh/Scots Irish, Lithuanian Irish, Brazilian Irish, Spanish Irish, Italian Irish, and so on.

What will Unionists call themselves in a United Ireland? I'd say most will return to the Irish Nation that their ancestors had no problem being proud members of.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2021/01/19/border-poll-take-stormont-off-the-table/

Another of Unionist persuasion discussing the outcome of a border poll. Interesting article and comments, even if the article is doing the Unionist/Partitionist fear thing of trying to re-write the GFA and insist on just re-partitioning.

Now as we approach the end stage of the “post-conflict” era (which I mark as the end of community designation in the assembly) strand one feels like it is under attack like never before. To borrow from an analogy I saw this week, nationalism is attempting in its calling for an immediate border poll to build an “additional highway” around the GFA.

Appealing though this narrative is, unionism has done its fair share to bash the GFA and in particular strand one itself. The DUP notoriously spent 9 years fighting to scrap it then demanded concessions at Saint Andrew’s so that they could exercise a near unlimited right of veto even over executive ministers, if Ulster couldn’t be ruled by majority then better it be blocked by majority.

downcow wrote: »

It gets tiresome Francie. I asked you for the quotes with the politicians talk about preparing for a border poll?. I am not saying it is not there, I simply cannot read it because I don't have access. Now stop posting riddles and just post the quotes from the politicians?
That shouldn't be too difficult - providing you are not bluffing again

Pedantry knows no bounds.

Here is the quote, from away back in the thread, the one you breezed by. Now if you want to allege that the BT is misquoting Unionists, that is fine but without back up I call that to be just a handy way to deny the fact that Unionists are talking about a border poll and the future.

Carla Lockhart wrote:

"Gavin is taking a very sensible, pragmatic approach. It's vital that we prepare ourselves for the future and any scenario including a border poll''