Early Prediction: CSO Property Price Index to turn positive for 2020 Q4.
Timing belt wrote: Fully agree...I think we will see it happen in relation to environment spending
Villa05 wrote: » I will be the first to admit that I am a bit out of my depth on these macro economic issues, however no matter how technical a subject is an injection of logic and common sense can resolve alot of issues. If the institutions of the western world are trying to generate inflation and printing truckloads of money to do so. Can those various institutions bang heads together and devise solutions that target that money for projects that benefit society as a whole. The current system which has been in operation for over a decade is not working and is creating new records in asset price bubbles
Timing belt wrote: If the government spend they need to borrow and that would increase debt to gdp. So will leave ok for one-off spending as opposed to reoccurring expenditure.
Villa05 wrote: » Just a thought In an effort generate inflation, money is created/printed and enters the system at the top and expected to trickle down. The trickle down effect is not happening and instead asset prices are in a bubble spiral creating greater risk of a mega crash in the future Why not print the money in smaller amounts and let it pay for an after school care scheme for the EU for example Why Use existing schools to deliver the care Employ qualified childcare specialists at reasonable rate. Current rates are a joke Saves young families 100euro per week per child. Young families spend all their income as it is a high cost period of a person's life The money gets recycled within the economy spurring growth, employment and tax generation EU has serious demographic issues, schemes that incentivse having children would benefit the area greatly. Much more reasons too numerous to mention, but the underlying point if you wanted to generate inflation, this would be a no brainer and if you wanted to cool inflation, you start charging for the service, it would still be considerably cheaper than the current child care system in Ireland
Timing belt wrote: The idea of wanting the economy to collapse so that prices fall would only benefit someone who was shielded from a loss in income and on a guaranteed job for life.
combat14 wrote: but house prices utimately feed into national competitiveness and wage demands so it is not in the national interest to see a repeat of 2008 bubble level prices
Timing belt wrote: » Just to be clear can you explain where the 70k negative equity comes from because you are saying that the property is worth 190k they paid 260k for it and have 200k left on the mortgage. Unless I am mistaken they are 10k in negative equity and the value of the property is 70k lower that what they paid for it.
combat14 wrote: » about 102k interest from those numbers - 100% mortgage and interest rate is a bit higher as a result, but thats only one celtic tiger 100% mortgage would be interested if anyone else had latest figures on negative equity appreciate it has thankfully dropped in last 3 years more than likely (fingers crossed)
Timing belt wrote: » So in 12 years the repaid 172k on a property the bought for 260k and have 200k principal left and the property is only worth 190k. Have I got the facts right. They have paid 112k in i interest in 12years
combat14 wrote: » about 190k in value and about 200k left in payments apparently
Cyrus wrote: » So are you saying a house that was 260k in 2008 is only worth 80k today ? Because on a 260k mortgage with those kind of repayments (assuming it was 100 percent ) there should only be circa 150k left on the principal after 12 years .
combat14 wrote: » not sure where you could get those numbers just know genuine people never missed or reduced a payment who bought for nothing mad 260k in 2008 who are still in negative equity about 70k 12 years later despite paying about 1200 a month or more on there mortgage all that time there must be more people out there probably outside dublin would be interesting to see the numbers even if greatly reduced from 8 years ago
Cyrus wrote: » Are there reputable figures on number of home owners still in negative equity ? If they have been paying their mortgage I can’t see that it would be a massively high number .
combat14 wrote: » nobody is wishing for an economic collapse and it doesnt look like we will have one either if we manage our national debt repayments well which we have so far but house prices utimately feed into national competitiveness and wage demands so it is not in the national interest to see a repeat of 2008 bubble level prices
combat14 wrote: » i dont want to bring the guy in the big house on the hill back down but neither do we want to see everyone at the bottom of the hill end up in the gutter drowning in debt - there are still a significant number of people in this country still in negative equity from the last crash which 12 years later is hard to believe
PropQueries wrote: » Nothing wrong with “crystal ball gazing”. That’s the whole idea of this particular forum. Taking all available information and making guesses on where it will lead. I assume someone buying Alphabet’s (Google’s) stock today is “crystal ball gazing” on both their revenues/profits over the next 20 years, interest rate movements etc. etc.
Timing belt wrote: » I don't see how wishing a economic collapse would help all these people..
Timing belt wrote: » That is a fact that I was calling it out as a reason why people would not have a discussion on lower prices. There is no attitude in that... You assume there is attitude just like you have assumed that I want higher prices.... I like many on here would greatly benefit from lower prices but I don't see the market pointing that way for the reason's I have been calling out.
Timing belt wrote: » 100% agree a single person finds it very hard to buy but this has always been the case. For someone that has split up it is near impossible unless to get a mortgage even if they had savings that would allow them to buy with a mortgage because any maintenance payments will dramatically reduce the mortgage they would get. Wishing a economic crash on everyone makes no sense... As I said in a previous post : In america they look at the guy in the big house on the hill and say this time next year I will be up there with him. In Ireland people look up and say this time next year he will be back down here with the rest of us.
Cyrus wrote: » It’s become more like a crystal ball gazing forum .
Timing belt wrote: » That is a fact that I was calling it out as a reason why people would not have a discussion on lower prices. There is no attitude in that... You assume there is attitude just like you have assumed that I want higher prices.... I like many on here would greatly benefit from lower prices but I don't see the market pointing that way for the reason's I have been calling out. If people have sufficient means and security and have not bought a 'home' and rented instead in the hope that property prices fall then they have lost out financially and like a gambler trying to double down to try and recoup losses they will continue waiting....Who know's maybe the outsider comes in at 100 to 1 and they are financially better off.
combat14 wrote: » no just unfortunately clearly remember the pain so many in this country suffered the last time people here paid too much for housing and can see it happening all over again also any one who is single trying to buy a house here must be finding it an absolute nightmare at current prices anyone renting in dublin must be finding it very hard to save for house depoits at these rates all analysis of house valuations keep assuming that buyers are a couple who will never split up or have children in the future .. every valuation justification seems to max house valuations out to the last and dont seem to cover real world eventualities
schmittel wrote: » Quote: Originally Posted by Timing belt View Post Most people waiting to get onto the property ladder will see this as very palatable but you need to remember that in Ireland 2/3 of people own their property so the idea of lower property prices is up their with large tax increases ("with no benefits for the tax paying population"). Why would anyone choose to reduce their net wealth? That's the sort of attitude I am talking about.
schmittel wrote: » Plenty people of sufficient means and security that they don't feel the effects of a downturn as much as the next man.
schmittel wrote: » combat14 may have substantial capital at his disposal, and would welcome a downturn in economy in order to invest that capital in assets at cheaper prices hoping to increase his net wealth. The suffering of others or society at large does not concern everybody. If so, it would be a perfectly rational outlook for an individual to have. No different to those who hope that property prices continue to rise hoping to increase their net wealth. They are not concerned whether rising prices causes the suffering of others or society at large.
schmittel wrote: » It's a discussion forum.
