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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

2.50 Pun Castlegrange 13/2 e/w

[Deleted User]

3.05 Sth Going Native 40/1 e/w to nab a place in this trappy affair, with just 6 going to post - 1st be nice, but 2nd ok too

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.50 Pun Castlegrange 13/2 e/w

Strange what happened there, some (2 I think) loose horses caused a few to be brought out; but not the selection, who for some strange reason veered to his left (maybe he was lonely in front, or following the crowd :P) , and the jockey pulled him up..

[Deleted User]

17/01

Running P & L -8pts

Invested 8pts

Returns: none

Total in play 8pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 1,205 pts

Total P & L -16pts

[Deleted User]

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

[Deleted User]

1.55 Ayr Buddha Scheme 8/1 e/w
A good price to hopefully nab one of the two spots. An open affair this.

[Deleted User]

8.10 Wol Clay Regazzoni 9/1 e/w
Another of the thread 'standing dishes' , and yet to oblige (for the thread, that is )... The extended 9fs might be a bit on the stiff side, but he handles these tapeta surfaces well, and is down into a Class 6 for the first time in over a year. Is a decent enough price to make him an e/w, and not a win only selection. Has drifted quite a bit today, but at a fair price now anyhow...

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

1.55 Ayr Buddha Scheme 8/1 e/w
A good price to hopefully nab one of the two spots. An open affair this.

2nd - Was up towards the front all the way ,and Looked like he had repelled the last of the challengers after jumping the last; only for one to come way out the back of the telly, and nab him as he was paddling his way home... Winner traded over 800/1 in running, I think (no good to us

). Was sure I had the winner there, but not to be.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

Hup!

And the 7/2 jolly wins easy to give Heskin a double (just backed that one, but happy out) , as he goes wide for a lot of the race - presumably for better ground - to take it up between 3 and 2 out; or thereabouts, and wins by 6+ lgths, or so..

Think the commentator was worried

about this one (one can usually tell, as when she merely dropped back a position/length or two, he was sort of "bigging up" the fact that she was 'not travelling well' / 'losing a position, or two' / 'falling/going back' etc etc.. Subtle enough, but this punter feels that he had something else backed, and probably perceived the selection as being "one of the dangers" :pac:

[Deleted User]

3.35 Ayr The Pine Martin 18/1 e/w
Has a tiny squeak

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

Hup ya daisy Barry Browne - and a lovely ride to win easy... A great drift out to 11/1 too.... We is happy on thread

[Deleted User]

7.40 Wolves First Dance 11/1 e/w

A good race for EW backers I think, as a few have chances. I think the Scott Dixon horse Visibility at 3/1 gen is the one to beat if he can replicate his C & D performance lto (plenty more weight on his back tonight though, as he has a penalty to carry, and perhaps most interesting is the fact that he drops into a Class 6 from a Class 5). Arabic Welcome is the well backed fav at 11/4 gen, but hard to assess his chances on only his fourth ever run, and stepping up in trip from his 3rd at Newcastle lto.

Enough reason to go looking for something at a decent price in this, and I think the selection FIRST DANCE can go well here tonight. This 7yr old Mare is having her third run on the back of a year long absence. The first two of those (over C & D) were nothing special, where she was decisively beaten in both, when taking a somewhat circuitous route going wide in both. Her latest run (over about a furlong shorter) was a bit better, as she got more involved, but was unlucky enough in running, and finished 3rd having been held up out the back.

All three of her recent outings were over Class 5's , and she drops back to a Class 6 tonight.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

^^^
If I waited 5 mins longer, I'd've gotten 14s on opening show

- very nice price methinks

[Deleted User]

:mad:

re the 7.40 - Sullivan had his mount perfectly placed throughout; on the rail, in 4th or 5th; only a few lengths off the lead. Was travelling well 3-4 furlongs out, but wasn't very interested in making much use of the selection. Drifted out to 18s too - I guess tonight wasn't the day. Rancid imo. Hard to say if she'd have won, but a place would have done me, and anything else a bonus..

He waits until the home turn to make the "trying to get the best place possible" shapes... Too late then - came effin 4th, beaten less than a head for a place... I'm gonna say it again - RANCID :mad:

[Deleted User]

18/01

Running P & L -16pts

Invested 12pts

Returns:

1.55 Buddha Scheme (done e/w at 8/1) places at a quarter the odds returning 3pts
3.00 Timeless Beauty (done e/w at 9/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 7.4pts
3.45 Glenabo Bridge (done e/w) wins at 11/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 15.2pts

Total in play 12pts - returns 25.6pts

Profit for the day 13.6pts

Running invested total - 1,217 pts

Total P & L -2.4pts

[Deleted User]

19/01

2.45 Exeter Miss Honey Ryder 12/1 e/w
3.55 Fakenham Always Able 18/1 e/w , Midnight Mary 10/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

19/01

2.45 Exeter Miss Honey Ryder 12/1 e/w
3.55 Fakenham Always Able 18/1 e/w , Midnight Mary 10/1 e/w

Fakenham off

[Deleted User]

3.35 Clonmel Cluan Dara 25/1 e/w

Has won before on Heavy, and came 2nd over C & D in October on soft.

[Deleted User]

3.35 Clonmel will also do Carnet De Stage 25/1 e/w here. Just a hunch.

[Deleted User]

2.05 Clonmel De Milano 28/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

2.15 Exeter Alberts Monarch 125/1 e/w
Gluck

[Deleted User]

Am only looking at these races about 10 or so mins before off, so put up a couple late enough... That's how it goes sometimes...

[Deleted User]

2.35 Clonmel Coolbane Boy 15/2 e/w

Should like the heavy going here today over this 2m 3f trip..

[Deleted User]

3.05 Clonmel Added Bonus 14/1 e/w
Looks a nice EW price in this.

[Deleted User]

3.15 Exeter Chief Brody 28/1 e/w

A nice price now, and likes heavy. Grace Harris does have a recent winner, and the selection is 1 from 2 at the track..

[Deleted User]

3.45 Ex Tanrudy 20/1 e/w , The Dawn Man 15/2 e/w , Get Wishing 14/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

4.15 Ex Breakwater Buoy 33/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

19/01

Running P & L -2.4pts

Invested (not counting Fakenham, as meeting abandoned) 24pts

Returns:

2.05 De Milano (done e/w @ 28/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts
3.35 Carnet De Stage (done e/w) places at 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts

Total in play 24pts - returns 13.2pts

Loss for the day 10.8pts

Running invested total - 1,241 pts

Total P & L -13.2pts

[Deleted User]

20/01

Newbury 1.25 Le Ligerien 14/1 e/w
Likes soft ground, and the course. Won here this time last year in a hurdles race. Will hope Philip Hobbs' charge takes to the larger obstacles on his first go; as I feel he may be well in on the ratings this son of Turgeon - on this occasion, and fill one of the two places, and with a good round of jumping - perhaps win. Does seem to be the stable 2nd string (Hobbs has another in this - ridded by Johnson for JP) , but the price is good, and a fluent round should see the selection go very close.

Newbury 2.30 Pencreek 14/1 e/w , Zamani 14/1 e/w , Drewmain Legend 16/1 e/w
5 places on offer here, and cases can be made for all three of these.

Good luck

[Deleted User]

4.20 Chepstow Seasearch 33/1 e/w
A bit of a punt this one, and again 5 places on offer. Have put this one up before - another 'thread standing dish'. Wish I'd have gotten him at bigger (was 66/1 earlier/last night I think, and may be bigger than 33s with quite a few, especially those going the usual 4 places a quarter odds) , but 'value' is not an essential criteria for this thread. Was beaten over 30 lengths lto over a similar trip on heavy going, but that was in a grade higher, and the race was ran in a fast time. The reasons I give him a squeak are the heavy ground, dropping in the weights, and the 7lb claiming jockey Lewis Stones taking the ride for the 2nd time in a row.

Gluck all