2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

JimmyVik wrote: »

When Covid has been gone for a year, lets see how the work from home thing goes.
I suspect when covid is gone everything will be back to the old ways quick smart

Google, Unilever etc. would tend to disagree with you as they have already fully embraced the hybrid model already. And we’re only several months into this changeover in working patterns.

PropQueries wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the SBP a few weeks ago:

"Michael Cotter, one of Ireland’s biggest developers, wants to downsize more than a dozen of the larger homes in his Clay Farm project to create more affordable units, as the builder predicts uncertainty in the market.

Viscount Securities, a subsidiary of Cotter’s Park Developments, is currently developing phase one of its 933-home residential project in Ballyogan, Dublin 18. Phase two of the development is to include 350 of the homes."

So much for the supposed high demand for large houses in South Dublin.

Link to article in SBP here: https://www.businesspost.ie/news/developer-cotter-downsizes-ambitions-for-ballyogan-project-bf0976f9

Just to follow up on this. Is this really a relatively bad area in South Dublin and is that why they’re seeking to change their planning from large houses to smaller units?

I passed it a few times and it didn’t look too bad IMO

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Is this really a relatively bad area in South Dublin and is that why they’re seeking to change their planning from large houses to smaller units?

I passed it a few times and it didn’t look too bad IMO

The ballyogan road isn’t desirable no.

Of course it’s all relative.

L1011

Hubertj wrote: »

With Amsterdam looking like it will ban tourists from coffee shops Ireland should pass legislation and become the weed/THC/CBD capital of Europe / the world. Imagine the boost to retail and commercial / industrial units plus the boost to tourism industry. New FDI, new streams of tax revenue, increased immigration. Wonderful opportunity. As likely to happen as some of the other suggestions put forward this week.

Would these be the suggestions from a user you were specifically told to put on ignore lest you be thread-banned by any chance?

[Deleted User]

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Is this really a relatively bad area in South Dublin and is that why they’re seeking to change their planning from large houses to smaller units?

I passed it a few times and it didn’t look too bad IMO

It's a very desirable area. There is social housing further down the ballyogan rd, but it hasn't ever affected any property prices in the area.

Hubertj

L1011 wrote: »

Would these be the suggestions from a user you were specifically told to put on ignore lest you be thread-banned by any chance?

Why is your response to me in bold? Seems quite aggressive.

L1011

Hubertj wrote: »

Why is your response to me in bold? Seems quite aggressive.

Because its a moderation question. Like this one.

You are now banned from this thread one for week (initially) to see if you can actually stop yourself

thomas 123

Any updates on the aul shared equity scheme?

Any information at all on it actually that’s not just a summery on a news article?

bubblypop wrote: »

It's a very desirable area. There is social housing further down the ballyogan rd, but it hasn't ever affected any property prices in the area.

Sorry I disagree, when have the words desirable and ballyogan road ever been used together (leaving your post aside ).

Like I said it’s relative but it’s certainly not a desirable part of socodu .

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Never mentioned anything about taxes. Was mentioning that if a job is WFH permanently, it won’t be long before a person in e.g. Portugal takes a case that they can’t be refused a job based upon whether they live in Letterkenny or Lisbon.

Discrimination based on location in he EU may soon be considered the same as denying a job to someone based on their age.

This is the sort of nonsense that kills your credibility. You’re trying too hard now.

PropQueries wrote: »

Never mentioned anything about taxes. Was mentioning that if a job is WFH permanently, it won’t be long before a person in e.g. Portugal takes a case that they can’t be refused a job based upon whether they live in Letterkenny or Lisbon.

Discrimination based on location in he EU may soon be considered the same as denying a job to someone based on their age.

We had all this discussion on the 2020 property thread. The big issue is taxation. If an employee is based in another country the company is libel for labour laws there, taxation and social security. It might also cause the company to have to register maybe for company tax in that jurisdiction. It is highly unlikely such a case would be won at EU level. If it was the new based country would have to give guarantee's to companies regarding taxation.

This would be a huge liability for these countries as companies based in Portugal could opt for registration in Ireland to benefit from low Irish company tax rates and have employees based in Portugal. Therefore a majority of countries would always oppose it.

Even if all this rubbish you are posting came to pass it will be 5-15 years down the line. It will not impact Irish property prices in this decade not go mind in next 2-3 years. Now come up with you next conspiracy theories

Bass Reeves wrote: »

We had all this discussion on the 2020 property thread. The big issue is taxation. If an employee is based in another country the company is libel for labour laws there, taxation and social security. It might also cause the company go have to register for maybe for company tax in that jurisdiction. It is highly unlikely such a case would be won at EU level. If it was the new based country would have to give guarantee's to companies regarding taxation.

This would be s huge liability for these countries as companies could based in Portugal could opt for registration in Ireland to benefit from low Irish company tax rates and have employees based in Portugal. Therefore a majority of countries would always oppose it.

Even if all this rubbish you are posting came to pass it will be 5-15 years down the line. It will not impact Irish property prices in this decade not go mind in next 2-3 years. Now come up with you next conspiracy theories

I don’t think registering for tax etc. will be much of a problem. The multinationals based here already most likely sell or offer their services into every country in the EU. The proposed OECD tax reforms will also ensure that they must register for tax in each EU country (and world) in the very near future.

I don’t believe there’s much difference between allowing a person to WFH in letterkenny or Lisbon. A worker can easily win that battle in any test case IMO.

This is the one sure fire way the eastern EU countries can halt the brain drain to the west and they have a much bigger say in EU regulations today than they did 15 years ago when they were still the new kids on the block and finding their feet.

I’m of the opinion that corporation tax competition is on the way out and the new battle ground will be worker income tax competition. And there’s no way Ireland is winning that battle with our high legacy cost base IMO

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think registering for tax etc. will be much of a problem. The multinationals based here already most likely sell or offer their services into every country in the EU. The proposed OECD tax reforms will also ensure that they must register for tax in each EU country (and world) in the very near future.

I don’t believe there’s much difference between allowing a person to WFH in letterkenny or Lisbon. A worker can easily win that battle in any test case IMO.

This is the one sure fire way the eastern EU countries can halt the brain drain to the west and they have a much bigger say in EU regulations today than they did 15 years ago when they were still the new kids on the block and finding their feet.

I’m of the opinion that corporation tax competition is on the way out and the new battle ground will be worker income tax competition. And there’s no way Ireland is winning that battle with our high legacy cost base IMO

This will not happen.

This is similar to a previous theory you had, that American Ivy league colleges will deliver lectures en masse in China, thereby collapsing the Irish property market.

It must be nearly a year since all these posts started. Still feigning no vested interest in the property market?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think registering for tax etc. will be much of a problem. The multinationals based here already most likely sell or offer their services into every country in the EU. The proposed OECD tax reforms will also ensure that they must register for tax in each EU country (and world) in the very near future.

I don’t believe there’s much difference between allowing a person to WFH in letterkenny or Lisbon. A worker can easily win that battle in any test case IMO.

This is the one sure fire way the eastern EU countries can halt the brain drain to the west and they have a much bigger say in EU regulations today than they did 15 years ago when they were still the new kids on the block and finding their feet.

I’m of the opinion that corporation tax competition is on the way out and the new battle ground will be worker income tax competition. And there’s no way Ireland is winning that battle with our high legacy cost base IMO

Tax is one of the biggest blockers.

I know you know this, since it’s been explained to you at least 3 times in the past 6 months.

Why you insist on going on this merry go round with your conspiracy theories and wild supposition is genuinely beyond me.

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think registering for tax etc. will be much of a problem. The multinationals based here already most likely sell or offer their services into every country in the EU. The proposed OECD tax reforms will also ensure that they must register for tax in each EU country (and world) in the very near future.

I don’t believe there’s much difference between allowing a person to WFH in letterkenny or Lisbon. A worker can easily win that battle in any test case IMO.

This is the one sure fire way the eastern EU countries can halt the brain drain to the west and they have a much bigger say in EU regulations today than they did 15 years ago when they were still the new kids on the block and finding their feet.

I’m of the opinion that corporation tax competition is on the way out and the new battle ground will be worker income tax competition. And there’s no way Ireland is winning that battle with our high legacy cost base IMO

This post is a good summary of your wildest theories. It should be saved somewhere for posterity .

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

Sorry I disagree, when have the words desirable and ballyogan road ever been used together (leaving your post aside ).

Like I said it’s relative but it’s certainly not a desirable part of socodu .

It absolutely is. Clay farm is directly opposite leopardstown valley, behind it is stepaside, at the end of ballyogan rd is glenamuck rd, the other end is murphystown rd, all those areas command big money for houses.
Just because Ballyogan estate is a social housing estate, it has never had any affect on surrounding estates.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the SBP a few weeks ago:

"Michael Cotter, one of Ireland’s biggest developers, wants to downsize more than a dozen of the larger homes in his Clay Farm project to create more affordable units, as the builder predicts uncertainty in the market.

Viscount Securities, a subsidiary of Cotter’s Park Developments, is currently developing phase one of its 933-home residential project in Ballyogan, Dublin 18. Phase two of the development is to include 350 of the homes."

So much for the supposed high demand for large houses in South Dublin.

Link to article in SBP here: https://www.businesspost.ie/news/developer-cotter-downsizes-ambitions-for-ballyogan-project-bf0976f9

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Is this really a relatively bad area in South Dublin and is that why they’re seeking to change their planning from large houses to smaller units?

I passed it a few times and it didn’t look too bad IMO

I don't think there's much wrong with Ballyogan Road really these days, it may not be the top of the list in south Dublin but in the grand scheme of things it's fine. It would be a LOT nicer than many other parts of Dublin.

Clay Farm is a super-high density, enormous development. It's basically building a new mini village. A dozen or so units in a 1500 unit development being changed is not a significant indicator of anything.

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think registering for tax etc. will be much of a problem. The multinationals based here already most likely sell or offer their services into every country in the EU. The proposed OECD tax reforms will also ensure that they must register for tax in each EU country (and world) in the very near future.

I don’t believe there’s much difference between allowing a person to WFH in letterkenny or Lisbon. A worker can easily win that battle in any test case IMO.

This is the one sure fire way the eastern EU countries can halt the brain drain to the west and they have a much bigger say in EU regulations today than they did 15 years ago when they were still the new kids on the block and finding their feet.

I’m of the opinion that corporation tax competition is on the way out and the new battle ground will be worker income tax competition. And there’s no way Ireland is winning that battle with our high legacy cost base IMO

Rubbish, rubbish and more rubbish.

Employing a person in another country is much more than just registering for tax. You would also be governed by employer legislation in these countries. Any such rules would have to be available. To companies above a certain size. What size company 100 employees therefore a mid sized company could have to register in 10-15 odd EU countries, be aware of there employer/employee legislation manage time differences etc. This whole theory is rubbish. It will have nothing to do with Dublin property prices for 10 years plus. You are just derailing the thread

TheSheriff wrote: »

Still feigning no vested interest in the property market?

Is thus not the same poster who's son is after moving home and waiting for a property price collapse to buy a house/apartment. He has a vested interest to get his son out of his house if I am right.

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

We had all this discussion on the 2020 property thread. The big issue is taxation. If an employee is based in another country the company is libel for labour laws there, taxation and social security. It might also cause the company to have to register maybe for company tax in that jurisdiction. It is highly unlikely such a case would be won at EU level. If it was the new based country would have to give guarantee's to companies regarding taxation.

This would be a huge liability for these countries as companies based in Portugal could opt for registration in Ireland to benefit from low Irish company tax rates and have employees based in Portugal. Therefore a majority of countries would always oppose it.

Even if all this rubbish you are posting came to pass it will be 5-15 years down the line. It will not impact Irish property prices in this decade not go mind in next 2-3 years. Now come up with you next conspiracy theories

I agree that Props idea is not going to impact the market anytime soon. But to say domestic moves will is not a conspiracy theory.

The Regional Co Working Analysis is worth a read since their findings are shaping govt policy.

They found that the total number of workers capable of operating remotely was 387k, and unsurprisingly the majority of these are in Eastern/Midland region - 253.6k or 65.5%

Unsurprisingly the vast majority of these 250k, 190k are based in Dublin.

So it's true to say that for most people WFH wont be an option, the majority will probably continue as normal, and a minority will embrace WFH and the chance to move from Dublin for whatever reason.

Say no change for 90%? That takes 19k potential buyers and renters out of Dublin market. Add that to the public sector WFHers and you have a number which represents a minority of the workforce but a significant number in terms of housing demand.

Prices are set at the margin. If the marginal buyer is sipping pina coladas in Cavan, that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

SpencerJC

Last year was a strange one for sure. I think there are a lot of people who have been quietly saving (I know a few) and some of these deposits will come on stream this year. It's unfortunate, but a lot of people who were penalised financially by corona may not have been in the market anyway, lot of pub workers, retail etc. With the supply issue and banks continuing to lend, I don't see prices in Dublin dipping, more likely to go up imo. The biggest threat to housing prices is inflation. With all the money being pumped into the economy, at some point we will likely see inflation and interest rates go up. Falling house prices will follow when it becomes more expensive to borrow. Either way as a buyer, I don't see the environment getting much better (In Dublin). Other side of the coin is with 3.5 lending limits, how high is the ceiling

schmittel wrote: »

I agree that Props idea is not going to impact the market anytime soon. But to say domestic moves will is not a conspiracy theory.

The Regional Co Working Analysis is worth a read since their findings are shaping govt policy.

They found that the total number of workers capable of operating remotely was 387k, and unsurprisingly the majority of these are in Eastern/Midland region - 253.6k or 65.5%

Unsurprisingly the vast majority of these 250k, 190k are based in Dublin.

So it's true to say that for most people WFH wont be an option, the majority will probably continue as normal, and a minority will embrace WFH and the chance to move from Dublin for whatever reason.

Say no change for 90%? That takes 19k potential buyers and renters out of Dublin market. Add that to the public sector WFHers and you have a number which represents a minority of the workforce but a significant number in terms of housing demand.

Prices are set at the margin. If the marginal buyer is sipping pina coladas in Cavan, that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

I was posting about his rubbish theory regarding workers from Ireland being allowed to work in other countries.

MacronvFrugals

My dad was in grabbing some building supplies in this shop today - https://tjomahony.ie/ (they have lots of shops around the country)

Anyways he notices barely anyone was there and asked the guy "where is everyone?" he said "they gave 3/4 of staff notice to quit and will no longer open on Saturdays from now on"

Whether covid affects the housing market is up for debate with supply so low but it will certainly wreak havoc on some industries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Rubbish, rubbish and more rubbish.

Employing a person in another country is much more than just registering for tax. You would also be governed by employer legislation in these countries. Any such rules would have to be available. To companies above a certain size. What size company 100 employees therefore a mid sized company could have to register in 10-15 odd EU countries, be aware of there employer/employee legislation manage time differences etc. This whole theory is rubbish. It will have nothing to do with Dublin property prices for 10 years plus. You are just derailing the thread

Most of the multinationals already employ people directly in many other EU countries in R&D, direct sales etc. so different employee regulations are not a big deterrent. Also, the likes of Accenture, mercer etc. are very well placed to help them negotiate this “minefield” once they decide to implement it.

The one and only reason they don’t currently offer it is tax and the new OECD tax rules and other EU tax rules will most likely eliminate the one and only reason they located here in the first place IMO.

bubblypop wrote: »

It absolutely is. Clay farm is directly opposite leopardstown valley, behind it is stepaside, at the end of ballyogan rd is glenamuck rd, the other end is murphystown rd, all those areas command big money for houses.
Just because Ballyogan estate is a social housing estate, it has never had any affect on surrounding estates.

It’s fine , but as I said as south county Dublin goes it’s certainly not what I’d consider desirable.

You could say that houses in monkstown are among the most expensive in the area yet you wouldn’t call monkstown farm desirable would you ?

PropQueries wrote: »

Most of the multinationals already employ people directly in many other EU countries in R&D, direct sales etc. so different employee regulations are not a big deterrent. Also, the likes of Accenture, mercer etc. are very well placed to help them negotiate this “minefield” once they decide to implement it.

The one and only reason they don’t currently offer it is tax and the new OECD tax rules and other EU tax rules will most likely eliminate the one and only reason they located here in the first place IMO.

You keep referring to the new oecd rules , I think your knowledge of European tax and the oecd extends to the executive summary of one article you read going by your posts on the matter.

Reins

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Is thus not the same poster who's son is after moving home and waiting for a property price collapse to buy a house/apartment. He has a vested interest to get his son out of his house if I am right.

Think you're wrong.

Think it's PELEZICO who's the poster you're refering to..