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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.05 Wetherby Sao 9/2 win

And he wins

A bit of an ungainly conveyance, who didn't travel or jump great (not poor either, but just does seem to not be too interested in the game) , and thanks to a faller at the last he won comfortably enough, with one gaining towards the line, but that one had too much ground to make up.

A few fallers, and the one that benefitted the winner the most fell at the last (Eragone - who was just marginally ahead of the selection at the time, and looked favourite to me to prevail at that stage... And looking at how the selection finished the race off, I think that Becky Smith's mount would have won had he stayed up) . Skelton's horse fell earlier, so hard to assess how he'd have done, but I don't think he'd have been in either of the top two spots.

Selection won though, and that's all that counts :pac:

In the 2.15 Lingfield the well-backed Hotalena didn't do much..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

3.25 Lopes Dancer 9/2

Gluck

2nd

Was up with the pace and travelling well - took it up 2fs out, and looked the winner, until the well-handicapped Systemic; having only his 5th run swooped past about a furlong out, and won as he liked....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.50 Lingfield Decora 16/1 e/w

2nd. Happy enough with that, after a long layoff, and first run for a new stable.

Came wide and late, but couldn't get past the well backed topweight; and the both were clear of the remainder.....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

4.00 Rathbone 7/1, Kapono 9/1

No joy there - Rathbone looked the possible winner about a furlong out... Was eventually ran out of it, and finished out the places in fifth... I think that far side rail has a bias against it at Newcastle.... Kapono ran no sort of race at all.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

4.30 Glasvegas 4/1

A graveyard that far rail side - Darragh Keenan's mount was travelling well enough, but faded into 4th, after looking like he'd come with a winning run - I think he even decided he wanted to switch outside late on :P , but there was no room - between a loose horse, and another upsides there was nowhere really to go. The horse's chances had gone anyway at that stage, with 2 or 3 having passed him, and pulling away....

[Deleted User]

12/01

Running P & L + 27.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.25 Lopes Dancer (done e/w) places at 9/2 at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts
6.00 Destacado (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
3.50 Decora (done e/w) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
2.05 Sao (done win) wins at 9/2 returning 5.5pts

Total in play 27pts - returns 14pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,142 pts

Total P & L + 14.3pts

[Deleted User]

14/01

Thursday's pin jobs

Chelmsford

4.55 Dors Toyboy 8/1
5.30 Gracie's Girl 11/1
6.30 Junoesque 12/1
7.00 Strawberry Jack 8/1
7.30 Essgee Nics 8/1

Fontwell

1.00 Delgany Monarch 9/2
1.30 Hasankey 11/2 , Jaisalmer 16/1
3.30 Inspireus 22/1

Bangor

1.20 Kilpin 5/1
2.20 Late Shipment 40/1
2.50 Kala Noire 8/1
3.20 Strike Hollow 6/1 , Lime Drop 66/1 , Lexi's Choice 33/1
3.50 Karannelle 40/1

All EW

Good luck :pac: Will be doing well to make a profit today, but one never knows... Am just ahead at the minute and want to stay that way - 3 wins and 5 places would be grand :pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

Running P & L -50.1pts

Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.

Returns:

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts

Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts

Loss for the day 12.6pts

Running invested total - 906pts

Total P & L -62.7pts

Deleted User wrote: »

Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.

Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...

I will keep trying anyway

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Running P & L + 27.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.25 Lopes Dancer (done e/w) places at 9/2 at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts
6.00 Destacado (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
3.50 Decora (done e/w) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
2.05 Sao (done win) wins at 9/2 returning 5.5pts

Total in play 27pts - returns 14pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,142 pts

Total P & L + 14.3pts

Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today...

Covit

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today...

Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.

[Deleted User]

Covit wrote: »

Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.

Pure bs like you said.. I don't listen to, or subscribe to any of them myself...
"Points System" lol... All this crap about "advised" prices

Most likely their (the so-called 'good' , or mostly those tipsters that would be in profit ) 'advised prices' cannot be got... Perhaps were never available to begin with :rolleyes:

If I can stay level, or marginally in profit using readily available prices to either 1pt win , or 1pt e/w (would consider both of those to be level stakes, as each way contains 2 bets) I'll be content; for now at least - unless I hit another good run, and then I'll be going for at least 10%+ profit :pac:

Leff

[Deleted User]

Subject to a "Precautionary" :pac: :pac: :pac: inspection at 7.30; but should it get the go ahead, here are my picks at:

Catterick

12.40 Caldwell 13/2
1.10 The Reaping Race 4/1
2.10 Sheriff Garrett 11/1
2.40 Brian Boranha 8/1
3.10 Milanvera 16/1
3.40 Nefyn Point 3/1

Caldwell looks a good price for at least a place methinks - I see the jolly in that 12.40 is an ex 'her maj' horse (Punctuation) , who's now with different connections, and having his first outing over obstacles priced at about 2/1 - not for me today though... The selection is still a colt too, so another reason to be hopeful...

2.10 Sheriff Garrett partnered by the champ BS Hughes was doing pretty good in 2018 over similar trips/grades/going , but was off for about 2 years until last November - admittedly he hasn't done much in the three outings he's had since the layoff, but he's only 7, should be fit, and has the assistance of Hughesie for the first time.

2.40 Brian Boranha. A standing dish at these staying trips. He hasn't won on proper soft going before, but was going well in this race last year on soft before coming to grief at the last, and would have most likely finished third in a fast run race. He is down 9lbs since then, has the tonguestrap applied for the first time, and is only ten, which is not ancient for this staying event.

3.10 Milanvera has done little so far, and today sports first time cheekpieces. She ran an okay race two runs back, was well supported lto, and it doesn't look like a very strong race, and at a decent price will do me.

The other two selections are 4/1, and 3/1, so if going solely on prices should be bang there.

Gluck, and will hope the fixture goes ahead

_____________________________________________

In the spirit of the 'bs' talk as mentioned earlier I have some supplementary Bullshit to add

:pac:

Supp BS No 1: I shall give a 'favourable mention' to Wise Eagle in the 12.40 (he used to be co-owned by a popular poster on this forum when owned by YTR, and in the care of Tom Clover). He had a good first outing over the sticks, when coming 2nd over C & D last backend (or last month

) . It wouldn't surprise me to see him go close, and I will give myself an appreciative pat on the back should he oblige. All bs aside though, and available at 7/2, I think he's the one to beat on form, and probably should threaten the ex Queen's horse for favouritism; indeed one feels he shall verily usurp the current jolly come the off, does one

..

Supp BS part two: The highly touted, and well regarded Kevin Brogan (who claims 7) has rides in the 4th, 6th, and 7th (last) race here..

So there you have some bs talk, and favourable mentions that I can take credit for, even though I haven't as much as a Rex on any of the 4 referenced :pac:

WISE EAGLE should go well; all rubbish aside - figured I'd just go 1 selection per race (for a change :pac:)

*Alas, I am not the first on this site to mention the above horse, but I have given myself an advance pat on the back for noting him, and another couple of pats for mentioning K Brogan

As an aside there are some snide lurking types around theses herees pawrts, so I've got bothy barreles loaded , and several mags too (figuratively speaking that is

) , so if any kernt wants tae have a go u've ben worned.. Take effin note, cos I'll reciprocate with interest.
*Cos they might no like my opinion/s, or how I give 'em, but they're no rudy oblijed to read me thread :mad: Kerrrnts :mad::mad:

Good luck all

[Deleted User]

^^^

12.40 Wise Eagle 7/2 win

Jess, I have conveencd myself to back this horse, as I would not wish it upon myself to not have dee satisfaction of shouting at telly and punching de air if dis beast is cruising 2 out - no sir, me wants to have that please...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

14/01

Thursday's pin jobs

Chelmsford

4.55 Dors Toyboy 8/1
5.30 Gracie's Girl 11/1
6.30 Junoesque 12/1
7.00 Strawberry Jack 8/1
7.30 Essgee Nics 8/1

Fontwell

1.00 Delgany Monarch 9/2
1.30 Hasankey 11/2 , Jaisalmer 16/1
3.30 Inspireus 22/1

Bangor

1.20 Kilpin 5/1
2.20 Late Shipment 40/1
2.50 Kala Noire 8/1
3.20 Strike Hollow 6/1 , Lime Drop 66/1 , Lexi's Choice 33/1
3.50 Karannelle 40/1

All EW

Good luck :pac: Will be doing well to make a profit today, but one never knows... Am just ahead at the minute and want to stay that way - 3 wins and 5 places would be grand :pac:

Lime Drop NR 3.20 Bangor

[Deleted User]

Catterick Abandoned - what were the odds? :rolleyes:

A waste of time looking at cards subject to a precautionary

:mad: :mad:

Maybe it's 'Confirmation Bias' but it sure seems to this poster that these Precautionary Inspections are sure punching above their weight with regards to the the concerned meeting/s being abandoned - lol, joke of a system; with no consideration to punters, or trainers. If I was in charge there would be no such thing as precautionary inspections - maybe for the big meets only :mad:

[Deleted User]

1.30 Fontwell Gustavian 15/8 win

A bit short, and has seen some money today, but he should be good enough to get his head in front down in trip, and grade, and on this heavy going that the selection thrives on. Have already picked 2 each way in this, but now with the going being 'Heavy' , and not Soft-Heavy in places I think the ground's possibly gone against Hasankey, who has drifted - still think they both could run decent races though.

[Deleted User]

No joy in the first

Ran a good race, but when pace increased at the end Delgany was found wanting in the 1.00, and only managed 5th.

[Deleted User]

A few NRs since selections put up, but the NRs notwithstanding some of the selections have shortened more than what the Rule 4 would necessitate.. Also a few have shortened in races where no NRs, like Kilpin in the next (1.20), who's currently available to back just before the slightly delayed off at 4s... Was 5/1 when I put him up.

[Deleted User]

Kilpin no good.... That's 0 from 2.. Have three here in the 1.30, so hopefully

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Kilpin no good.... That's 0 from 2.. Have three here in the 1.30, so hopefully

hope you done the forecast

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Kilpin no good.... That's 0 from 2.. Have three here in the 1.30, so hopefully

Not too bad... Had the fav (knew he was 'value' at 15/8 the shortie :P ) , who won at 6/4, and the gallant drifter Hasankey, who was worn down on the run-in to come 2nd at 10s. The other pick (jaisalmer) ran well for about 2 thirds of the race, so had a run from him too...

[Deleted User]

but1er wrote: »

hope you done the forecast

Not too pushed, as I had the winner and a placer... Paid about £17 if anyone done it - well less than that if the three were combined, as it would have been 6 lines, so about 2/1 from the total outlay....

[Deleted User]

Late Shipment not good enough in the 2.20 - ended up a moderate 5th, or thereabouts..

[Deleted User]

Down about 5pts so far - still time, and a few upcoming have seen a little money

[Deleted User]

Just an observation, but The Glancing Queen 3.20 at 1/5 :eek: best price surely has to be a lay for win and place.. 'Won't get poor' doing that bet - heavy going that she's never won on, plus it's only her third outing over hurdles and those were over 2 1/2m, and 2m5fs on gd to soft - soft in plcs, and soft - gd to soft in places. Who backs horses at these prices in this sort of an event????????

Madness!

[Deleted User]

Another one bites the dust - Kala Noire no good

Only way is up - 7pts in the red :pac:

[Deleted User]

Strike Hollow falls at the first

[Deleted User]

A HUNNNNDREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDD TO 1

placer:P

with a 10p rule 4 I think....... Gwan Lexi's choice

Thread back in profit

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

A HUNNNNDREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDD TO 1
placer:P
with a 10p rule 4 I think....... Gwan Lexi's choice

Thread back in profit :

the one i dont back.

how that horse keep going to get home in second ill never know

[Deleted User]

And young Connor Brace never gives up on Inspireus in the 3.30 to come 2nd for another tasty place.... 22/1 not too shabbee - a 25p rule 4 I think, but it's still more profit..

[Deleted User]

but1er wrote: »

the one i dont back.

how that horse keep going to get home in second ill never know

Pity that - annoying alright when one doesn't back a winning selection,,,