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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

^^^

12.40 Wise Eagle 7/2 win

Jess, I have conveencd myself to back this horse, as I would not wish it upon myself to not have dee satisfaction of shouting at telly and punching de air if dis beast is cruising 2 out - no sir, me wants to have that please...

[Deleted User]

Subject to a "Precautionary" :pac: :pac: :pac: inspection at 7.30; but should it get the go ahead, here are my picks at:

Catterick

12.40 Caldwell 13/2
1.10 The Reaping Race 4/1
2.10 Sheriff Garrett 11/1
2.40 Brian Boranha 8/1
3.10 Milanvera 16/1
3.40 Nefyn Point 3/1

Caldwell looks a good price for at least a place methinks - I see the jolly in that 12.40 is an ex 'her maj' horse (Punctuation) , who's now with different connections, and having his first outing over obstacles priced at about 2/1 - not for me today though... The selection is still a colt too, so another reason to be hopeful...

2.10 Sheriff Garrett partnered by the champ BS Hughes was doing pretty good in 2018 over similar trips/grades/going , but was off for about 2 years until last November - admittedly he hasn't done much in the three outings he's had since the layoff, but he's only 7, should be fit, and has the assistance of Hughesie for the first time.

2.40 Brian Boranha. A standing dish at these staying trips. He hasn't won on proper soft going before, but was going well in this race last year on soft before coming to grief at the last, and would have most likely finished third in a fast run race. He is down 9lbs since then, has the tonguestrap applied for the first time, and is only ten, which is not ancient for this staying event.

3.10 Milanvera has done little so far, and today sports first time cheekpieces. She ran an okay race two runs back, was well supported lto, and it doesn't look like a very strong race, and at a decent price will do me.

The other two selections are 4/1, and 3/1, so if going solely on prices should be bang there.

Gluck, and will hope the fixture goes ahead

_____________________________________________

In the spirit of the 'bs' talk as mentioned earlier I have some supplementary Bullshit to add

:pac:

Supp BS No 1: I shall give a 'favourable mention' to Wise Eagle in the 12.40 (he used to be co-owned by a popular poster on this forum when owned by YTR, and in the care of Tom Clover). He had a good first outing over the sticks, when coming 2nd over C & D last backend (or last month

) . It wouldn't surprise me to see him go close, and I will give myself an appreciative pat on the back should he oblige. All bs aside though, and available at 7/2, I think he's the one to beat on form, and probably should threaten the ex Queen's horse for favouritism; indeed one feels he shall verily usurp the current jolly come the off, does one

..

Supp BS part two: The highly touted, and well regarded Kevin Brogan (who claims 7) has rides in the 4th, 6th, and 7th (last) race here..

So there you have some bs talk, and favourable mentions that I can take credit for, even though I haven't as much as a Rex on any of the 4 referenced :pac:

WISE EAGLE should go well; all rubbish aside - figured I'd just go 1 selection per race (for a change :pac:)

*Alas, I am not the first on this site to mention the above horse, but I have given myself an advance pat on the back for noting him, and another couple of pats for mentioning K Brogan

As an aside there are some snide lurking types around theses herees pawrts, so I've got bothy barreles loaded , and several mags too (figuratively speaking that is

) , so if any kernt wants tae have a go u've ben worned.. Take effin note, cos I'll reciprocate with interest.
*Cos they might no like my opinion/s, or how I give 'em, but they're no rudy oblijed to read me thread :mad: Kerrrnts :mad::mad:

Good luck all

[Deleted User]

Covit wrote: »

Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.

Pure bs like you said.. I don't listen to, or subscribe to any of them myself...
"Points System" lol... All this crap about "advised" prices

Most likely their (the so-called 'good' , or mostly those tipsters that would be in profit ) 'advised prices' cannot be got... Perhaps were never available to begin with :rolleyes:

If I can stay level, or marginally in profit using readily available prices to either 1pt win , or 1pt e/w (would consider both of those to be level stakes, as each way contains 2 bets) I'll be content; for now at least - unless I hit another good run, and then I'll be going for at least 10%+ profit :pac:

Leff

Covit

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today...

Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

Running P & L -50.1pts

Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.

Returns:

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts

Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts

Loss for the day 12.6pts

Running invested total - 906pts

Total P & L -62.7pts

Deleted User wrote: »

Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.

Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...

I will keep trying anyway

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Running P & L + 27.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.25 Lopes Dancer (done e/w) places at 9/2 at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts
6.00 Destacado (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
3.50 Decora (done e/w) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
2.05 Sao (done win) wins at 9/2 returning 5.5pts

Total in play 27pts - returns 14pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,142 pts

Total P & L + 14.3pts

Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today...

[Deleted User]

14/01

Thursday's pin jobs

Chelmsford

4.55 Dors Toyboy 8/1
5.30 Gracie's Girl 11/1
6.30 Junoesque 12/1
7.00 Strawberry Jack 8/1
7.30 Essgee Nics 8/1

Fontwell

1.00 Delgany Monarch 9/2
1.30 Hasankey 11/2 , Jaisalmer 16/1
3.30 Inspireus 22/1

Bangor

1.20 Kilpin 5/1
2.20 Late Shipment 40/1
2.50 Kala Noire 8/1
3.20 Strike Hollow 6/1 , Lime Drop 66/1 , Lexi's Choice 33/1
3.50 Karannelle 40/1

All EW

Good luck :pac: Will be doing well to make a profit today, but one never knows... Am just ahead at the minute and want to stay that way - 3 wins and 5 places would be grand :pac:

[Deleted User]

12/01

Running P & L + 27.3pts

Invested 27pts

Returns:

3.25 Lopes Dancer (done e/w) places at 9/2 at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts
6.00 Destacado (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
3.50 Decora (done e/w) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
2.05 Sao (done win) wins at 9/2 returning 5.5pts

Total in play 27pts - returns 14pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,142 pts

Total P & L + 14.3pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

4.30 Glasvegas 4/1

A graveyard that far rail side - Darragh Keenan's mount was travelling well enough, but faded into 4th, after looking like he'd come with a winning run - I think he even decided he wanted to switch outside late on :P , but there was no room - between a loose horse, and another upsides there was nowhere really to go. The horse's chances had gone anyway at that stage, with 2 or 3 having passed him, and pulling away....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

4.00 Rathbone 7/1, Kapono 9/1

No joy there - Rathbone looked the possible winner about a furlong out... Was eventually ran out of it, and finished out the places in fifth... I think that far side rail has a bias against it at Newcastle.... Kapono ran no sort of race at all.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.50 Lingfield Decora 16/1 e/w

2nd. Happy enough with that, after a long layoff, and first run for a new stable.

Came wide and late, but couldn't get past the well backed topweight; and the both were clear of the remainder.....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12/01

Newcastle

3.25 Lopes Dancer 9/2

Gluck

2nd

Was up with the pace and travelling well - took it up 2fs out, and looked the winner, until the well-handicapped Systemic; having only his 5th run swooped past about a furlong out, and won as he liked....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.05 Wetherby Sao 9/2 win

And he wins

A bit of an ungainly conveyance, who didn't travel or jump great (not poor either, but just does seem to not be too interested in the game) , and thanks to a faller at the last he won comfortably enough, with one gaining towards the line, but that one had too much ground to make up.

A few fallers, and the one that benefitted the winner the most fell at the last (Eragone - who was just marginally ahead of the selection at the time, and looked favourite to me to prevail at that stage... And looking at how the selection finished the race off, I think that Becky Smith's mount would have won had he stayed up) . Skelton's horse fell earlier, so hard to assess how he'd have done, but I don't think he'd have been in either of the top two spots.

Selection won though, and that's all that counts :pac:

In the 2.15 Lingfield the well-backed Hotalena didn't do much..

[Deleted User]

^^^

I think fav goes off in front, and selection follows right behind... I think the horse is far better than what the Skelton yoke beat lto...

[Deleted User]

2.05 Wetherby Sao 9/2 win

[Deleted User]

No good anyway...

[Deleted User]

^^^^

Don't mean to put them up that close to the off, but I just looked at that race about 10 mins ago....

[Deleted User]

1.45 Roundabout Magic 15/2 e/w

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.30 Wetherby 25/1 e/w Native Choice
price looks a bit big imo

5th

Had a very good chance of getting third, but pecked on landing after jumping second last, and that put paid to his chances.

[Deleted User]

12.30 Wetherby 25/1 e/w Native Choice
price looks a bit big imo

[Deleted User]

3.50 Lingfield Decora 16/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

2.15 Lingfield Hotalena 12/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

12/01

Newcastle

All EW

3.25 Lopes Dancer 9/2
4.00 Rathbone 7/1, Kapono 9/1
4.30 Glasvegas 4/1
6.00 Swing Low 28/1 , The Quiet Rebel 9/1 , Destacado 7/1
6.30 Bobby Joe Leg 22/1 , Baronial Pride 7/2 (was disappointed when I saw that price - was expecting way bigger

... )

Gluck

[Deleted User]

No joy yesterday..

Have a few picked out today I'm confident of getting a run from. I expect them to go well anyway leastways. Will post them up in a bit.

[Deleted User]

11/01

Running P & L + 41.9pts

Invested 20pts. Fleursals 3.10 NR @ 2pts. 18pts in play.

Returns:

4.45 Lady Alavesa (done e/w) places at 12/1 at a fifth returning 3.4pts

Total in play 18pts - returns 3.4pts

Loss for the day 14.6pts

Running invested total - 1,115 pts

Total P & L + 27.3pts

pottokblue

I love your AP optimism leffsem with all the bad news around 6 nations rescheduled who know how cheltenham 2021 will proceed. Meanwhile I'm waiting patiently for the bookies to reopen and continuing with my fantasy pots...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Another one for the AP list

Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)

10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.

Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.

Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

11/01

Monday's speculative darts

Doncaster
12.30 With 5 places here I have selected 3 in this: Our Cilla 50/1 , Dalkadam 12/1 , Avithos 20/1
2.40 Garrane 6/1
3.10 Fleursals 33/1

Wolverhampton
4.15 Red Skye Delight 12/1
4.45 Lady Alavesa 8/1 , Zafaranah 18/1
7.15 Siavash 20/1

All EW

Gluck

Fleursals NR 3.10

7.15 Wolves Whatwouldyouknow 12/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

11/01

Monday's speculative darts

Doncaster
12.30 With 5 places here I have selected 3 in this: Our Cilla 50/1 , Dalkadam 12/1 , Avithos 20/1
2.40 Garrane 6/1
3.10 Fleursals 33/1

Wolverhampton
4.15 Red Skye Delight 12/1
4.45 Lady Alavesa 8/1 , Zafaranah 18/1
7.15 Siavash 20/1

All EW

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

04/01

Running P & L -95.9pts

Invested 36pts. Sarah's Verse 4.50 NR @ 2pts, Anisoptera 1.40 NR @ 1pt, Dynali 1.40 NR @ 2pts. 31pts in play.

Returns:

Nellie French 3.50 (done e/w at 33/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 7.6pts
Hermocrates 5.20 places at 9/2 at a quarter the odds returning 2.1pts
Stacey Sue 2.25 (done e/w at 22s) places at a fifth the odds with a 35p rule 4 returning 3.8pts
Chimes Of Dylan 2.55 places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Total in play 31pts - returns 16.5pts

Loss for the day 14.5pts

Running invested total - 1,009 pts

Total P & L -110.4pts

Deleted User wrote: »

09/01

Running P & L -32.7pts

Invested 19pts. 1.45 Almazhar Garde NR @ 2pts. 17pts in play.

Returns:

3.10 Prime Venture (done e/w) places at 16s at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
3.10 Secret Reprieve (done e/w at 7/2) wins with a fifth the odds for a place returning 6.2pts
3.30 Boreham Bill (done e/w) wins at 66/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 81.2pts

Total in play 17pts - returns 91.6pts

Profit for the day 74.6pts

Running invested total - 1,097 pts

Total P & L + 41.9pts

Pretty good lately

What a difference a week makes

More than a 150pt swing in the positive direction from less than a 90pts outlay...

Very happy with that

Hope somebody else backed Boreham Bill; although going by the drift not many did :pac:

pottokblue

Good day Leffesem with the WGN Winner Secretreprieve and the superdrifter Borehambill well picked