PommieBast wrote: » That sounds like stuff that would be on the outskirts, if not out in the sticks.
Timing belt wrote: » At the same time look at the delays in delivering online or because of Brexit... there is a demand for more warehousing to hold stock... This is also commercial property.
Villa05 wrote: » Maybe, but still a weak argument for opportunities, growth in the commercial sector
Timing belt wrote: It all depends on why it is struggling... If it is because of Debt and not Turnover/costs then a sale and lease back would be beneficial and prevent the company from going under.... Yes its is at a big cost but is better than closing down.
PommieBast wrote: » I'd like to know where such commercial property is because it doesn't looks like it gonna be central Dublin. All the Spender Dock stuff that was for the Brexit bonanza that never came springs to mind.
Villa05 wrote: » Most of the successful online retailers are cash rich. In a low interest rate environment, they will be looking after their own property requirements and basing in low cost areas with low property prices and plenty cheap labour Ie low cost cities/countries
Timing belt wrote: » When they talk about commercial property they will be talking about a property that has potential for growth which will is unlikely to include the likes of Grafton street as peoples shopping habits have changed. I suspect they are talking about warehousing and other commercial property use for online.
Villa05 wrote: » I think a business that owns its own premises and is struggling would be unviable if they had to lease it in current environment
Timing belt wrote: When they talk about commercial property they will be talking about a property that has potential for growth which will is unlikely to include the likes of Grafton street as peoples shopping habits have changed. I suspect they are talking about warehousing and other commercial property use for online.
Timing belt wrote: » When they talk about commercial property they will be talking about a property that has potential for growth which will is unlikely to include the likes of Grafton street as peoples shopping habits have changed. I suspect they are talking about warehousing and other commercial property use for online. The funds industry have also said that there will be opportunities in commercial property this year.... Just think of bushiness that are struggling that may own commercial property they may be forced to sell the property and lease it back.
Timing belt wrote: The funds industry have also said that there will be opportunities in commercial property this year.... Just think of bushiness that are struggling that may own commercial property they may be forced to sell the property and lease it back.
PommieBast wrote: » I wonder if places like Grafton street tanking 20-30% recently has anything to do with this?
Bass Reeves wrote: » This data would indicate that 15-25% of buyers are not borrowings to buy houses. It a staggering figure. Add in people who have substantial savings and borrowing minimal amounts and it indicates that there is nothing like the equity issue that caused the crash of 2008. Another interesting observation would be that compared to 2008 most ordinary investors now own multiple properties. There is evidence that many of these have gone down the mini REIT route. If they have they have sheltered rental earnings and are probably buying with cash reserves. There is evidence as well that investors will not invest unless the return is 7-10%+. This all indicates that any property crash will not come from the investor side of the market. This has been a opinion of mine for the last while. Any decline in price will be limited. There is indications that if anything prices are rising. Something we could all do without. However we are a distance from bubble territory. Dublin's is an issue but if WFH reduced demand a little bit it may solve that
Bass Reeves wrote: » Pre 2008 virtually all houses were bought by borrowings mainly due to 100%+mortgages.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40204313.html
"Pensions adviser Mercer is recommending investors to plump for commercial property and private assets amid the potential for further market volatility from the Covid pandemic and political unrest this year"
schmittel wrote: » Sorry if I am being a bit thick but I don't get the point? What is the 40% being non mortgage transactions telling us?
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Villa05 wrote: » Do you believe the rents underlying those returns are sustainable, yes there is wage inflation in specific sectors and people there are doing OK and will probably be able to buy. However at the lower to middle incomes there is downward pressure on wages through privitisation, sub contracting, availability of labour while covid and online sales and high rents and rates may knock out alot of small business. These are the sectors that rental income comes from, will the state have the capacity to meet current rental prices
Villa05 wrote: » It appears to me, investment is being done with 0 thought to risk. All investments carry risk as does cash of course It just seem illogical that someone would invest in an asset that is priced at 70 times earnings when traditionally 20 times earning would be considered expensive
Villa05 wrote: » I've seen alot of this lately in people I know buying stocks amazed at the appreciation their seeing so quickly, You can tell straight away they have no clue what they are doing. Do you think this year will be make or break year for stocks. I don't see how the wider economy including property escapes if this bubble bursts
Timing belt wrote: We have not see investors in property chasing capital appreciation yet and hence why I say that there is no bubble in the Irish property prices.
Timing belt wrote: Then their is a school of thought that the stock market and other asset valuations are correct as the world embraces lower yields thanks to higher prices for assets. If this is correct then anyone that is not in a defined benefit pension is going to get totally screwed come retirement. Although I don't think this is the case I can see the logic behind it when it comes to Blue chip companies, property etc. as their is still a basis for the valuation.
Timing belt wrote: Where there is no logic is in relation to the investors moving away from looking at yield and purely looking at capital appreciation such as in IT stocks. We saw this happen in the dot.com era and we are seeing it again. The Financial institutions are delighted to see it as they know what is happening and already have their exit strategy whilst the man on the street comes to the party looking for the 70/80% return like his friends got from investing in the stock.
Timing belt wrote: » No they also talk about a reduction in supply brought about by covid.
Graham wrote: » Do they say the drop in demand will be enough for supply to finally meet demand?
Timing belt wrote: » Noting it is to distract you from the point that they say there might be a drop in demand:eek::eek:
Timing belt wrote: » There is also another slide that all you property bears will like where they say they expect a drop in demand..... but don't look at that instead look at the 40% of property being non-mortgage transactions :D:D:D:D:D
HotDudeLife wrote: » So your sole rationale to think 2nd hand prices won't drop is the shared equity scheme on new builds causing prices across the board in general. Well that's...very tunnel visioned. What about tonnes of other macro and micro indicators, global recession, thousands of businesses going under, reduced consumer confidence to name a few? My prediction was second hand property will start to drop roughly 3 months after the economy full reopens and government support payments to both businesses and individuals are withdrawn. When i initially made that prediction i thought the economy will reopen in June/July and thus we will see drops in October, i still stand by that prediction that prices will drop 3 months after the economy reopens but i'm now doubtful on when that will happen.
