schmittel wrote: » Sure they are handy for identifying if market is trending up or down. But to use them to claim "House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%" as a fact is nonsense.
Mic 1972 wrote: » The history of the Irish property market from the 2007 bubble burst to 2012 rock bottom to the recovery of recent years is perfectly reflected in the Asking price reports. They never once showed a different trend or unrealistic prices. Some sellers will set an unreasonable high price, another one may set it too low. But when you look at the comprehensive data, it all averages out to reflect the reality of the market. You dont' have to use asking prices if you don't like them, but you can't dismiss their statistical relevance.
schmittel wrote: » Do you believe that prices in South Dublin are up 9.2% this year?
Timing belt wrote: The one quote that stood out to me was the following:
Villa05 wrote: » Another interesting quote from the same article "Mr White’s judgment, central banks know they cannot leave interest rates as low as they are, because they are inducing still more bad debt and bad behaviour. But they cannot raise rates because then they would trigger the very crisis they are trying to avoid." It appears a square needs to be circled
Hubertj wrote: » I’ll be asking €11.2M for my house
Louis Friend wrote: » And the other thousands of people who are “asking for a price” will behave normally and reasonably. Hence asking prices are a decent proxy for actual prices.
Mic 1972 wrote: » Correct. Also, data is normalized before reports are published, it's standard process. Abnormal figures get adjusted or removed.
Mic 1972 wrote: » House prices in South Dublin have increased by 9.2%, let's not use anecdotes as evidence of facts.https://ww1.daft.ie/report/2020-Q4-houseprice-daftreport.pdf?d_rd=1
Mic 1972 wrote: » Nothing at all is pointing to a price drop in 2021, let alone a 10-15%
HotDudeLife wrote: » I cannot take you seriously if all your evidence is reports based on asking prices or pie in the sky predictions. I have given my rationale on why i believe 2nd hand prices in the FTB price range will drop (albeit slowly and not until near end of the year).
HotDudeLife wrote: In areas close to me, the new builds were whipped up in ridiculous locations and prices well above what they are worth, plus a good chunk of them are allocated to social housing so chance they may become ghettos. Also who wants to work hard and pay for a brand new house only to have some leech move in next door for free. If something is for free/highly reduced, they won't value it and these areas will turn into dumps. Second hand houses in mature areas are the way to go.
rks wrote: » ^^ Thats what they said that the price will drop by 10-20% in 2020. Now its 2021 then it will be 2022. Eventually it will happen, may be some more years down the line and then they will say.... told you so!
Timing belt wrote: » The reasons that I can think of why 2nd hand prices in the FTB price range would drop are: 1) Lack of Demand - Are you suggesting as in earlier posts that the savings in the Banks will be spent on holidays, drink and designer gear and very little on property so there will be little demand for any housing particularly 2nd hand housing in the FTB price range. - or is it as one of your previous post suggests down to the fact that there are only so many couples who earn a combined salary of over 200k 2) To much supply - Are you suggesting that there are going to be so many new builds for FTB that will hit the market next year that FTB will not consider 2nd hand properties even if these 2nd hand properties are in a more desirable location with better infrastructure and transport links. Not to sure how this would be possible when the country was shut down for so long with covid but maybe you know something none of us know. - Are you suggesting that people will want to use their savings and upgrade to a bigger house and flood the market with 2nd properties in the FTB price range. I am struggling to see your logic as you have previously posted that no-one would want a FTB house and 2nd houses in mature areas are the way to go so why now do you think there will be no demand and prices will drop by 10-15% Prices on 2nd hand homes to drop by 10-15% based on the above sounds like a pie in sky prediction
HotDudeLife wrote: » I just realized you weren't even the poster whom i addressed my original comment to. This is bizarre, i simply make a point stating i predict second hand properties will drop towards the end of the year and i am ganged up upon lol and other posters jump in with blatant lies. Sums up society at the moment.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Are you suggesting as in earlier posts that the savings in the Banks will be spent on holidays, drink and designer gear and very little on property so there will be little demand for any housing particularly 2nd hand housing in the FTB price range. I said those who have accumulated the most savings are already property owners and therefore not FTB. The remainder of the savings cohort will of course include FTBs, but these will already have been chomping at the bit to buy and therefore will no result in a huge influx of FTB. There will be very few who were in no position to buy suddenly after 9 months of savings be able to get on the market, of the rare few who do, these will have a small deposit and will likely only be able to avail of FTB government help to buy scheme. And obviously people will send money on other items besides property.- Are you suggesting that there are going to be so many new builds for FTB that will hit the market next year that FTB will not consider 2nd hand properties even if these 2nd hand properties are in a more desirable location with better infrastructure and transport links. Not to sure how this would be possible when the country was shut down for so long with covid but maybe you know something none of us know. It's not a matter of preference, it's a matter of finances. Vast majority of FTBs are only in a position to buy because of the help to buy scheme (HTB). The HTB is for new builds only. New builds include an element of social housing, if you haven't read the news, construction sites have shut down and will likely be closed for a few months with the exception of...you guessed it construction sites that are for social housing i.e new builds.- Are you suggesting that people will want to use their savings and upgrade to a bigger house and flood the market with 2nd properties in the FTB price range. This is a possibility but i never stated that. Many of those with savings are already property owners and some may be in a better position to upsize.I am struggling to see your logic as you have previously posted that no-one would want a FTB house and 2nd houses in mature areas are the way to go so why now do you think there will be no demand and prices will drop by 10-15% Why are you making things up? Can't believe i wasted my time addressing your points. My point remains that a vast majority of FTBs who have AIP can only purchase property due to the HTB scheme which is limited to new builds, thus ruling them out of second hand property within the 220-350k (typically FTB) price range. I personally think second hand property in mature areas are better than new builds but i never made that argument as that's why prices would drop, which doesn't even make sense, why are you lying to discredit my predictions?
Timing belt wrote: » There is no lying just questions base on your previous posts... you have clarified your theory and if I understand it correctly you are saying that there will be adequate supply of FTB new builds and FTB won't buy 2nd hand as they will not avail of the HTB scheme and without it these properties will be unaffordable so will come down in price by 10-15% by Oct 2021. So in summary you are saying that HTB only leads to price increases in new builds that FTB can afford and has a negative impact on second hand homes. Just trying to make sure I understand your exact reasoning....
accensi0n wrote: » You also said you wouldn't log back in here until Oct 2021.
HotDudeLife wrote: » No problem, yes that is the biggest factor in my prediction along with other macro factors such as global recession, job losses, stagnation and possible reduction workers pay etc.
TheSheriff wrote: » HTB / shared equity scheme will increase the prices of all properties. It's foolish to think otherwise. The government's new shared equity scheme will keep properties (both new and second hand) on an upward trajectory for the foreseeable.
Dafterss wrote: » You may not have a job next year a lot of small shops will close .people should save for the next crash as it will be huge.the world governments are pumping money into the world stock markets and housing markets.and keeping rates low.its like using a bucket on the titanic I read it will take 20 years to vaccinate everyone for covid. You will see covid around for next 4-5 years doing financial damage.if you have cash move it to 4 or 5 places so if there's a bank crash you will not be wiped out
Mic 1972 wrote: » The current trends s are all pointing upwards, both asking prices and sales prices. You are predicting a major drop 10-15% From a statistical point of view it's nonsense. Trends don't change like that overnight. The assumptions you are making about lack of demands for second hand houses don't seem very realistic. Demand is high and supply is low
HotDudeLife wrote: » "Foolish", how so?
TheSheriff wrote: If 2nd houses in a certain region are selling for e.g 400k, and a new build estate is created in that area where they sell the houses for 450k, this will undoubtedly cause an upwards price trajectory of the neighbouring 2nd hand homes. They may not reach 450k, but they will approach it.
