schmittel wrote: » Record approvals or drawdowns?
schmittel wrote: » Record approvals or drawdowns? In the interests of making sure nobody is interpreting information to justify their opinion are you talking about approvals or drawdowns? There is a fairly significant difference.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-drawdowns-fall-by-almost-a-third-compared-to-2019-1.4391707 According to BPFI mortgage drawdowns collapsed by nearly 30% in the middle of a crisis.
Hubertj wrote: I fcuking hate the word “collapseâ€. Never liked it, I think it’s the sound.
Timing belt wrote: » It was meant to say approvals and a genuine mistake... Thank you for pointing this out. The Drawdown data is only available for the first 3 Qtrs of the year and can be found here.https://bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-drawdowns-report-q3-2020/ It shows that Drawdowns for house purchases for the first 9 months of the year is down to 78% of the value of loans drawn-down for the same period in 2019. When you drill into the data it shows that new Builds are 85% and secondhand is 75% value of the first 9 months of 2019.
schmittel wrote: » When you drill into the data it shows that in terms of drawdowns Covid had zero impact on Q1 2020, which would be expected. So given the data we have the Covid impact can only be seen in Q2 and Q3. And the figure is down 30% in the same timescale. Would you really claim that the housing market didn't suffer due to Covid?
Hubertj wrote: » What about the comparative supply during the periods? How much of the 30% is down to they’re being nothing to draw down on? How much is due to consumer sentiment? How much is down to being refused drawdown? I’m surprised it was only 30% considering all that has and continues to happen.
schmittel wrote: » A lot due to all of the above I would guess!! The interesting thing about comparative supply is looking at the mover/purchaser drawdowns... Mover/purchasers are about 60% in volume of what they were Q2/Q3 2019. Trigger warning - I am going to make some assumptions here... Mover/purchasers represent significant supply of 2nd hand homes - i.e they are selling their existing properties. Mover/purchasers without mortgages represent bulk of balance of second hand home supply. They will also likely to be down approx 60% (likely more) Pattern likely to continue until well clear of lockdown, say Q3 2021 This is creating a backlog of pent up supply of people who ordinarily would have sold in this timeframe. These people will still want to sell when things get back to normal. The longer COVID goes on, more people will be considering selling than normal due to Covid lockdown experience - house too small, garden too small, WFH, etc etc etc. If the above assumptions hold vaguely true we are looking at releasing significant supply of second hand homes into the market - 40% of a years normal supply + COVID lockdown induced supply + normal sales supply in Q2/Q3 of this year. Just well all these mortgage approvals are in the pipeline!!
Timing belt wrote: » The big question is are they upgrading or downsizing or moving location.
combat14 wrote: » Huge spike in house prices to hit buyers as average Dublin home goes for almost €400,000https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/huge-spike-house-prices-hit-19563339.amp
schmittel wrote: » I would say the bigger question is whether the credit worthy mortgage approval numbers on the pent up demand side are keeping pace with the would be seller numbers on the pent up supply side. i.e if this supply comes on stream a few months after we get back to normal, government wind down supports etc, will rising unemployment take out some of the approvals ability to drawdown. and how many individual approvals are being granted, many will be same person with AIP from two or three banks.
Timing belt wrote: » With regards unemployment I wouldn't expect people to be looking to move home (unless to downgrade) if they thought there employment was at risk.
Marius34 wrote: » Don't know how this will affect Property Market, but it seem we going to have another Big Problem.Sampling finds UK variant in quarter of Irish caseshttps://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-sampling-finds-uk-variant-in-quarter-of-irish-cases-1059965.html I might be very wrong, but we may end up being on Level 5 lockdown for many months.
Timing belt wrote: » Denmark banks are starting to offering 20 year fixed mortgage at 0%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/danes-get-20-year-0-mortgages-as-interest-rates-keep-sinking?srnd=economics-vphttps://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/denmark-offers-homeowners-20-year-loans-at-a-fixed-interest-rate-of-zero-20210106-p56rzj.html
Brussels Sprout wrote: » If the construction sites are shut again then that will restrict supply with obvious knock-on affects on prices.
TheSheriff wrote: » Did I read the news correct today, that private sites will be shut, but social sites will be kept going? Madness if so
Sweet.Science wrote: » How are social more essential than private ?
JimmyVik wrote: » Votes and optics.
bubblypop wrote: » The government are spending billions paying rent to private landlords, it makes sense to build social housing and take these people out of private houses.
fliball123 wrote: » First off where are you getting we are going bankrupt we borrowed 8/9 times as much 10/12 years ago and we didnt go bankrupt.
fliball123 wrote: » Also where are you getting the idea that property is not affordable. If you take the average wage in Ireland is about 39k and the average house price in Ireland is 267k. Now do the math of a couple on the average wage buying a house at the average price. . The average house price in the country is 267k is affordable 3.5 times 78k (couple) is 273k and then add in 10% for your deposit. Also other countries like America, France, the UK and a lot of other EU countries allow 5 times your salary. I dont know where your getting that it is unaffordable. I know people will say but not everyone can afford 267k but in the example above both the property and wage are at the average and while we have people on less than the average wage we also have housing for less than the average house price.
Villa05 wrote: » We have not started paying back what we borrowed 10-12 years ago yet despite strong growth in that time The wealth created in that strong growth has been absorbed by property and increasingly leaving the country untaxed. The cycle shows no signs of stopping and is incentivised by the state We are essentially spending our wealth on making life more difficult and expensive for our citizens for the benefit of foreign pension funds and investment trusts despite our own pensions crisis looming This is neither smart or sustainable
fliball123 wrote: » Also where are you getting the idea that property is not affordable. If you take the average wage in Ireland is about 39k and the average house price in Ireland is 267k. Now do the math of a couple on the average wage buying a house at the average price. . The average house price in the country is 267k is affordable 3.5 times 78k (couple) is 273k and then add in 10% for your deposit. Also other countries like America, France, the UK and a lot of other EU countries allow 5 times your salary.
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