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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Itssoeasy

Well this is a surprise to wake up to. The two GOP candidates have only themselves to blame and then the trump factor was the final nail in the coffin.

dogbert27

Ossoff-Perdue isn't officially called yet though is it?

And Loeffler is refusing to concede so will there be further court cases coming from her to claim election fraud too?

Kiith

Will be interesting to see if this impacts Pence today at the senate. Trump and Mitch will be piling even more pressure on him to challenge the results.

Still won't be easy to pass some of the changes they want to, given how center some of the sitting Dems are.

dogbert27 wrote: »

Ossoff-Perdue isn't officially called yet though is it?

And Loeffler is refusing to concede so will there be further court cases coming from her to claim election fraud too?

Still not called, and Loeffler won't concede. She'll hang on and call foul for as long as possible.

BonnieSituation

Fell asleep a couple of hours ago when Ossoff took the lead.

The whole night was a microcosm of November's madness.

Hopefully the rest of the ballots to be counted keep breaking for the Dems so that they get over the 0.5% threshold.

froog

This is almost sweeter than the biden win. Trump hands dems the senate. Glorious.

Kiith

Joe Manchin will become very important to both parties now.

Dillonb3

froog wrote: »

This is almost sweeter than the biden win. Trump hands dems the senate. Glorious.

4 years of Trump presidency has seen Arizona and Georgia changing their presidential votes from republican to Democrat and 4 senate seats from Republican to Democrat

Igotadose

Per fivethirtyeight.com re: Georgia runoff:

"...the more heavily a county backed Trump in the November general election, the more its runoff turnout tended to drop relative the general"

kilns

The senate race could have a bigger impact on US politics than the presidential race, if Dems win control of the senate, it will vindicate the likes of Romney even more and could be a real opportunity for real geniune conservative Republicans to assess their party and start to steer it in another direction before its too late.

No doubt the Trump base will stay there but they need to cut them loose and those charlatan politcians who play to them

kowloon

Leaving aside anything Republican vs Democrat, waking up and seeing Loeffler defeated is a good start to the day. Didn't know who she was before the election and the insider trading but have discovered what a piece of work she is since then.

Overheal

froog wrote: »

This is almost sweeter than the biden win. Trump hands dems the senate. Glorious.

Still commiserating that, if they had won the Senate properly without the runoff, they could have been legislating since Monday. Now the have to wait for the recounts/disputes etc. to seat these 2, and you can bet the Senate could see some obstruction on confirming Biden’s cabinet.

Faugheen

Kiith wrote: »

Joe Manchin will become very important to both parties now.

Yep. Probably the most powerful Senator in there now.

duploelabs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's over. Republicans win both senate seats.

Well that's aged well

Quin_Dub

Kiith wrote: »

Will be interesting to see if this impacts Pence today at the senate. Trump and Mitch will be piling even more pressure on him to challenge the results.

Still won't be easy to pass some of the changes they want to, given how center some of the sitting Dems are.

Still not called, and Loeffler won't concede. She'll hang on and call foul for as long as possible.

Warnocks lead is way outside any margin for a recount , so Loeffler can whinge all she likes.

They'll probably go back to court to try and overturn the decision by Stacey Abrams sister , but that only involved about 4k votes , so not enough to matter.

If Ossoffs wins as projected , then Perdue might make the recount threshold , but again it won't change the result.

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?

Utterly bizarre.

namloc1980

Kiith wrote: »

Will be interesting to see if this impacts Pence today at the senate. Trump and Mitch will be piling even more pressure on him to challenge the results.

He can't challenge the results.

MJohnston

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Warnocks lead is way outside any margin for a recount , so Loeffler can whinge all she likes.

They'll probably go back to court to try and overturn the decision by Stacey Abrams sister , but that only involved about 4k votes , so not enough to matter.

If Ossoffs wins as projected , then Perdue might make the recount threshold , but again it won't change the result.

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?

Utterly bizarre.

Well see Perdue is a real incumbent, unlike Loeffler, so he was always going to have a slight edge over Ossoff because of that. Likely there were some swing voter shifts who split the ticket.

Brussels Sprout

If the Democrats hold on for the 50-50 then as well as having legislative implications it will also allow them to confirm federal judges without needing to rely on the largesse of Mitch McConnell. That also, of course, includes the Supreme Court and I would think that there is a good chance that 82 year old liberal justice Stephen Bryer might step down if he knows that Biden can replace him with a like-minded judge.

Faugheen

Mike Pence won’t (and can’t) do anything other than give the Republican challengers what they want if they object, because they have the right to do so.

When the House shoots those objections down. Pence will move on as normal

pixelburp

Kiith wrote: »

Joe Manchin will become very important to both parties now.

This is a key pillar of the whole chapter, forgotten in the immediate mathematical fallout of Georgia: Manchin is the very definition of Democrat In Name Only and it's entirely possible - if not likely - he'll cross the aisle for any and all bills that have even the vaguest whiff of "Liberalism" (which in 2020 America now also includes environmentalism and sensible pandemic strategies, perversely). The victory today is the Democrats but I suspect there'll still be deep struggles to get manifestos applied. A 50-50 split is still a precarious position.

kilns

Faugheen wrote: »

Yep. Probably the most powerful Senator in there now.

Dont forget Susan...

Brussels Sprout

kilns wrote: »

Dont forget Susan...

Nah, she's only relevant if the Republicans are in the majority. As a Republican she's already to the right of Manchin by definition, since the gap between the parties is so large now.

Collins voted with Trump 66% of the time - which was the lowest of any Republican.
Manchin voted with him 51% of the time - which was the highest of any of the remaining Democrats.

Manchin and the 2 Senators from Arizona: Sinema (also 51% Trump score) and Kelly (new) are the swing votes now.

Trump scores link

embraer170

Thank you Trump!

Faugheen

The only things Biden is near-guaranteed at this moment is his cabinet and any potential judicial appointment. Breyer will surely be retiring soon so this will become important.

You might see the likes of Collins and Murkowski side with any potential judicial appointment as well.

Larbre34

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?
.

Misogynists.

Its still the deep south.

Quin_Dub

namloc1980 wrote: »

He can't challenge the results.

Absolutely Correct , but he will "put on a show"first.

He'll make a long-winded speech about "The Constitution" and "Election Integrity" and how the people lodging their complaints are true patriots blah blah blah.

Then everyone will toddle off to their respective chambers where various Republicans will clutch their pearls and rant about "China" and "The Radical Socialists".

Then they'll vote - And they'll lose in both Houses.

They'll all get back together and Pence will mumble about the Constitution again and take a few pot shots at those "unpatriotic members" that voted against this just cause etc. etc.

Then he will be forced to utter the words - "Joe Biden is the next President of the United States".

Just as it has been for the last 4 years , this will be a show put on for an Audience of one.

Quin_Dub

pixelburp wrote: »

This is a key pillar of the whole chapter, forgotten in the immediate mathematical fallout of Georgia: Manchin is the very definition of Democrat In Name Only and it's entirely possible - if not likely - he'll cross the aisle for any and all bills that have even the vaguest whiff of "Liberalism" (which in 2020 America now also includes environmentalism and sensible pandemic strategies, perversely). The victory today is the Democrats but I suspect there'll still be deep struggles to get manifestos applied. A 50-50 split is still a precarious position.

The biggest challenge that Biden will have with Manchin is that he doesn't support the removal of the Filibuster.

If they can't get that out of the way , then the value of the majority is virtually wiped out.

Brussels Sprout

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?

Utterly bizarre.

The theory seems to be that they were mostly people who would consider themselves traditional Republican voters but who disliked Trump. Loeffler was nothing more than a Trump proxy candidate. Her whole shtick was that she voted for Trump legislation practically all of the time. She was never elected - got picked by the Governor, as the wife of a wealthy donor, to take over a seat after an early retirement.

Perdue had actually been elected himself 6 years ago so had more bona-fides as a "traditional Republican".

Alternatively, there's a theory that some Southern Christians would vote for a Pastor (Warnock) but not a Jew (Ossoff). Not sure about this though since most people with these kinds of convictions were probably voting for the Trump backed candidates anyway.

Brussels Sprout

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If they can't get that out of the way , then the value of the majority is virtually wiped out.

Is it really though? Like, let's take an extreme example and say that they spend 2 years trying to pass 1 single Bill. Can the Republicans filibuster it for that long? Surely there is some kind of limit?

[Deleted User]

Trumps legacy. Hands total control to Democrats. Quite fitting.

Igotadose

I wonder how many of these patriots voted for Romney 8 years ago?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1346597598044561409

It's why my US friends tell me, "Don't move back."