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Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

gazza1

Thought now was as good a time as any to get your antepost bets up

Mine are as follows

Supreme
Micro Manage 25/1 ew

Champion Hurdle
Saint Roi 14/1

RSA
Latest Exhibition 14/1

Stayers
Thyne Hill 12/1

Mares Novice Hurdle
Shewearsitwell 7/1

Treble
Shishkin 7/2 (arkle)
Honeysuckle 7/2 (mares)
Envoi Allen 3/1 (marsh)

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Pogue eile

EICVD wrote: »

They obviously don’t think much of the Henderson juvenile Heross Du Seuil then

I don't think they are buying them for their juvenile career to be honest, but yeah I would have French Aseel somewhere in the region of a stone better than Heross Du Seuil.

I also have Zanahyir another half 6-8lbs ahead of French Aseel

EICVD

Pogue eile wrote: »

French Aseel sold to the Donnelly's and will be trained by a certain WPM, very interesting development.

They obviously don’t think much of the Henderson juvenile Heross Du Seuil then

Gavin "shels"

Powers going NRNB on all races tomorrow I was told (had a quick glance on their social media and couldn't see a mention of it yet).

Coneygree

Pogue eile wrote: »

French Aseel sold to the Donnelly's and will be trained by a certain WPM, very interesting development.

Price has come in a couple of points too since the news broke.

Pogue eile

French Aseel sold to the Donnelly's and will be trained by a certain WPM, very interesting development.

RivetingRoger

Monalee out for season

Coneygree

I'd DTG backed as well since the start of the season, no sign of him running though which is a shame. Apparently he was working as well as Appreciate It and Ferny last year. CPS obviously have Sir Gerhard as their bumper monster this year, but it'd be nice to see him out anyway.

spuddiesal

Ante post bets so far

Royal Kahala - Mares Novice 20/1
Bravemansgame - Ballymore 20/1
Kilcruit - Ballymore 50/1 (Bumper route looking likely)
Pencilfulloflead - 16/1 RSA (Now 20/1. I think this could be worth another go. He beat Latest Exhibition alot easier than Monkfish. Elliotts ran stinkers at xmas and trip too short LTO.
Asterion Forlonge - March 20/1 (Now 33/1)
Deploy the Getaway - Bumper 33/1
Shiskin and Envoi Allen to remain unbeaten 20/21 season (Must run 3 times each) 40/1
Shiskin Arkle 21/Champion Chase 22 and Envoi Allen Marsh 21 100/1

spuddiesal

Lots of talk about the champion hurdle antepost. It is possible the most dangerous race to back antepost. The only horse that you could be confident with is Epatante but at 9/4 its not worth a bet (yet) IMO. All of the others have question marks. All i know is that the professional gamblers wouldn't be backing anything in it

Sharjah 8/1 - Improving every year but Epatante beat him easily last year. He needs good in the ground description if he is to get near her. If that happens he won't be 8/1 on the day
Aspire Tower 10/1 - Improved this year and will need to keep improving. He didn't improve after Xmas last year so not reliable.
Saint Roi 10/1 - Not as good as everyone thought. Can Willie work his magic?
Silver Streak 12/1 - Great run at xmas but will cheltenham is totally different to Kempton. Epatante reported in season
Honeysuckle 16/1 - Probably a 30% chance she runs here
Concertista 16/1 Probably a 20% chance she runs here
Abacadabras 16/1 - Something must be a miss with Elliotts runners. I'd back if i got 25/1. Supreme was 1 second slower than Champion hurdle last year.
Saldier - 25/1 - He will improve a lot if he stays healthy

Pogue eile

carq wrote: »

think i will be hesitant on any antepost now until NRNB comes in.

Small bit of movement on B365 the last 48 hours, I suspect they will go NRNB very soon, were probably holding off until after yesterdays announcement from Boris, Betfred are NRNB on the championship races since 1 January.

Pogue eile

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Haha !! Now the question is will the Irish horses be allowed travel

Careful now I was shot down for even suggesting that it was a possibility!

Anyway back to the actual antepost bets per the thread title, I have identified Bravemansgame as my 'english' horse that firstly I think wins and secondly I think would gain massively from the absence of the Irish horses if it were to transpire. Happy with 5/1 and if the Irish are absent he will be 6/4 max.

carq

think i will be hesitant on any antepost now until NRNB comes in.

Dr. Bre

Pogue eile wrote: »

There is a few here that I can think of for starters

Haha !! Now the question is will the Irish horses be allowed travel

Pogue eile

Slattsy wrote: »

It would take a right imbecile to want to go anyway.

There is a few here that I can think of for starters

Slattsy

Pogue eile wrote: »

Gove just announced this morning that they 'hope' to be able to start lifting some restrictions in March, so zero chance of any crowds being allowed.

It would take a right imbecile to want to go anyway.

Pogue eile

Gove just announced this morning that they 'hope' to be able to start lifting some restrictions in March, so zero chance of any crowds being allowed.

BumperD

Some very interesting points raised that never would have entered my calcs. I do believe the festival will go ahead in March, with the astrazenca solution a gamechanger, its 20% of the cost of pfzier and stores at fridge temp more like a traditional vaccine so is easier roll out. Also, if they delayed March, then it would clash with Fairyhouse/Punch/Aintree so my guess is it goes ahead.

If they wanted to secure some positive PR ahead of March, why not offer the course facilities as a Vaccine delivery site for Jan & February.

zpehtsfd

Pogue eile wrote: »

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

There is always a get out for bookies:

"the firm’s decision to void its entire ante-post book there is a reminder for punters that all bookies’ T&Cs allow them to void bets and return stakes at their discretion and without the involvement of the Gambling Commission, which regulates betting and gaming in the UK."

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jun/26/william-hill-bets-void-short-notice

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

If there is no comparable precedent then on what are you basing your opinion on? If you think you will get paid full whack if no Irish horses turn up then you are living in cuckoo land.

Simple fact of the matter is that punting GB horses on the slight chance that Irish horses dont show up is a moronic angle anyway.

What's moronic is your interpretation of what I said. Please show me where I said that I was, or was indeed advocating, backing english horses on the chance that Irish horses wont run??

And you still havent explained on what basis they would refuse to pay out??

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

Go one so, prove me wrong and quote me the rule or even a comparable precedent. As I said I don't place a bet without doing my research. And if you are that paranoid them simply use the exchanges!

If there is no comparable precedent then on what are you basing your opinion on? If you think you will get paid full whack if no Irish horses turn up then you are living in cuckoo land.

Simple fact of the matter is that punting GB horses on the slight chance that Irish horses dont show up is a moronic angle anyway.

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Probably should go with c/d form Monalee..

Anniepowaa

Considering Allaho's runs I wouldn't touch minella indo with a barge pole

Pogue eile

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Tough choice but I reckon she sticks with Minella, course form at the distance just swings it for me.

RivetingRoger

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

The naivety is impressive.

Go one so, prove me wrong and quote me the rule or even a comparable precedent. As I said I don't place a bet without doing my research. And if you are that paranoid them simply use the exchanges!

Pogue eile

Motivator wrote: »

If Irish horses can’t travel then the festival won’t happen it’s as simple as that. Look at the makeup of the Grade 1 races, Irish horses make up - for arguments sake, 50% average, of each Grade 1 run at the festival. Then you’d have to factor in the ratings for horses. You could have 2 or 3 runner Grade 1s as there mightn’t be enough horses rated high enough to take part. Or what you have is 2 or 3 genuinely Grade 1 horses and then 8 or 10 no hopers thrown in to pick up some prize money but you could have horses going off 1/3 or mental prices like that. The whole thing would be farcical.

As I said when I raised it as a possible scenario I would rate it as no more that 10-20% likely. To completely dismiss it is simply wrong, there are for bigger vested interests involved in the festival out side of numbers of runners in G1'S and competitiveness. Those two factors wont even be considered.

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

The naivety is impressive.

Motivator

If Irish horses can’t travel then the festival won’t happen it’s as simple as that. Look at the makeup of the Grade 1 races, Irish horses make up - for arguments sake, 50% average, of each Grade 1 run at the festival. Then you’d have to factor in the ratings for horses. You could have 2 or 3 runner Grade 1s as there mightn’t be enough horses rated high enough to take part. Or what you have is 2 or 3 genuinely Grade 1 horses and then 8 or 10 no hopers thrown in to pick up some prize money but you could have horses going off 1/3 or mental prices like that. The whole thing would be farcical.

Pogue eile

zpehtsfd wrote: »

By the way if you think the bookies will still honour those AP bets that you are thinking about doing you are dreaming. They'll be voided under the exceptional circumstances clause somewhere in their T&C's. GL

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

IAMAMORON

I am not sure what the AP scenario might be if the Irish horses were pulled. I would not try to overthink it. It is highly likely that the bookies would reform markets to suit themselves, I wouldn't put anything past the chunts. It was only a couple of years ago that Cry Baby refunded all his AP liabilities because he didn't want to play anymore.

It really would depend on what would cost them less? For example if the horses participation is left to the owners discretion as opposed to the government then they will not be repaying or voiding AP bets. They are under no obligation to do so anyways. I could see some of the bigger providers offering some sort of compensation for punters if the government ruled out the travel, but a free bet at best, I cannot see them handing back the readies.

Anyway I am confident that it will not be an issue.