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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

would introducing such thresholds increase the potential of bank runs?

No it would just make people spend their savings on something that they would perceive to hold value like property or accept it and pay the negative rate like most of the business customers have done.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Of course, the MMT school of inflation - nothing to see here, it's not real inflation. Hence my original comment about working for a central bank.

Time will tell indeed.

The reason that I don't think there will be any meaningful or long lived inflation as measured by the CPI is because the economy experienced a major deflation and the spending by the government only just about covered this deflation.

Irish households have saved an extra 11bn during the 2020 and this is normal for a recession where people are unsure about the future and has been helped by savings from WFH and less retail opportunities.

I don't see people spending all this money on a big party or once all the shops are back open and instead see the money being spent on more tangible assets such as property, Cars or kept as savings as people are still unsure about the future.

That is why I see inflation in property and not in the CPI or wage inflation.

[Deleted User]

Almost a year after the effects of Covid began to be felt, shouldn’t that huge price drop people were so sure would happen be happening by now? With agreement having been reached on a Brexit deal, vaccine roll out having begun and new property supply being stunted, makes me wonder why people are so sure about prices diving.

Timing belt

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Sigh. We are back on this bull****.

Of course we are as nobody has money except those people that think they were not impacted by covid because they are so superior to rest of the mere mortals. With such inflated heads like that they will need there own purpose built property with extra wide doors that will fit there big heads but might get away with a normal house if there head is up their.......

Meanwhile the majority of people that were not impacted are thankful that they were not directly impacted.

Pelezico

Guys......how will all of this impact property prices?

My three offspring have saved 80k among them this year. This level of saving staggers me.

[Deleted User]

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys......how will all of this impact property prices?

My three offspring have saved 80k among them this year. This level of saving staggers me.

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

Under normal circumstances, it would not be a surprise. It isn’t unusual for someone to do this when saving to buy a house. What is different about this is that we are supposed to be in a recession and the percentage of people wfh means a huge part of our population now have either wages/Covid payments sitting in their bank account unspent. That could be a hell of a lot of people with deposits for properties and providing their jobs are stable, with increased buying power.

Pelezico

bubblypop wrote: »

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

Actually two live outside home. All three work in what could be considered new economy and all three have partners who work in new economy.

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

bilbot79

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Happy new year to all, best wishes to you and your families.

My prediction for 2021:

- Mother of all recessions will cripple the world.

- Flood of property will hit the market once the vaccine is rolled out as it appears large segments of the population are fearful of putting properties up for viewing at the moment. This along with new builds will add to supply.

- Despite the beating the global the global economy will suffer, it will likely take some time for it to trickle down into the property market, for this reason i only predict a 10 -15% drop in Dublin.

Going against the herd here but the record high of savings deposits will not make much of an impact on the FTB section of the property market imo. Many of the people who have increased savings by any considerable amount are most likely already property owners, those who are not and who have increased savings due to lock down will not have increased them by enough to make an impact. E.g someone who is on 60-70k per year with no intention of buying or substantial savings, starts saving due to lockdown, even if very frugally, they would only put away at best around 18k (30ish if it's a couple) since March.

I may be wrong as i often am but in short i predict a 10-15% drop in Dublin.

Are you a prospective first time buyer?

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

Actually two live outside home. All three work in what could be considered new economy and all three have partners who work in new economy.

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

If they are moving out of Rental and into their own property it shouldn't make much of a difference what happens with house prices as the saving on Rent would compensate against any down side risk.

Cyrus

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Sigh. We are back on this bull****.

Care to elaborate ?

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

Imagine how many thousands of people around the country are in a similar position.

Imagine the impact that might have on property prices.

TheSheriff

So....

Here's an interesting property/evidence of the vendor asking too much?.

141 Delwood Close, Blanchardstown, originally listed by Flynn EA for €520k last year. Its a four bed semi.

The house originally has a garage attached, this was knocked and planning permission sought for the side site for a new build house. We know the area well and were looking in this park at the time. Our guess was, (as many do in this area), is that the owners would build the new build on the side site, move into it and subsequently sell the original house to clear the costs.

I noticed today the property is back up on the market with DNG at €485k -->https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-2-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475257

The site can now be bought separately for 225 --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-3-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475256

The images of the site are somewhat misleading, as I understand, it is the smaller tar mac'd portion next to the house, not the walled/gated area.

Or both the house and site can be purchased for 695k --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-1-141-delwood-close-plus-site-castleknock-dublin-15/4475258

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here, have they decided this is no longer worth the hassle and are just going to get out.

You could argue, this would have sold better for circa 600k if the garage had been left in situ and the side site retained as part of the original property. Splitting it up like this has devalued it in my opinion.

Who would spend 500k on the main house, not knowing who or what will be build on the site next to it (subject to future planning of course).

Graham

TheSheriff wrote: »

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here

My guess; they'd rather have €710k than €520k. Let someone else have the hassle of building.

Timing belt

TheSheriff wrote: »

So....

Here's an interesting property/evidence of the vendor asking too much?.

141 Delwood Close, Blanchardstown, originally listed by Flynn EA for €520k last year. Its a four bed semi.

The house originally has a garage attached, this was knocked and planning permission sought for the side site for a new build house. We know the area well and were looking in this park at the time. Our guess was, (as many do in this area), is that the owners would build the new build on the side site, move into it and subsequently sell the original house to clear the costs.

I noticed today the property is back up on the market with DNG at €485k -->https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-2-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475257

The site can now be bought separately for 225 --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-3-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475256

The images of the site are somewhat misleading, as I understand, it is the smaller tar mac'd portion next to the house, not the walled/gated area.

Or both the house and site can be purchased for 695k --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-1-141-delwood-close-plus-site-castleknock-dublin-15/4475258

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here, have they decided this is no longer worth the hassle and are just going to get out.

You could argue, this would have sold better for circa 600k if the garage had been left in situ and the side site retained as part of the original property. Splitting it up like this has devalued it in my opinion.

Who would spend 500k on the main house, not knowing who or what will be build on the site next to it (subject to future planning of course).

images are misleading compared to the Blueprint

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Imagine how many thousands of people around the country are in a similar position.
Imagine the impact that might have on property prices.

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels. Price is being set by government buying social and investment funds hovering up rentals

So if you want a house in this country have 5+ kids and quit your job or set up an investment fund and dodge any tax government assisted or get a mortgage and default after drawdown

Working is for fools and horses in this country

Geuze

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Happy new year to all, best wishes to you and your families.

My prediction for 2021:

- Mother of all recessions will cripple the world.

I may be wrong as i often am but in short i predict a 10-15% drop in Dublin.

Another severe recession, following the very bad 2020 recession?

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels.

Yet there appears to be no struggle selling new developments off plan and posters who are actually buying (rather than market guessing) consistently post about how competitive the market is.

brisan

They would still qualify as a FTB provided they left the home and no longer had a financial interest in it.

https://www.lawsociety.ie/globalasse...-notes/ftb.pdf

I checked that link and it seems to be out of date as its from 2005
From the gov.ie website

If you are buying or self-building the property with someone else, they must also be a first-time buyer. You will not qualify if you have previously bought or built a property, either individually or jointly with anyone else, even if you are now separated or divorced from that person.

https://www.gov.ie/en/service/bc9df-help-to-buy-htb-scheme/#:~:text=The%20Help%20to%20Buy%20(HTB)%20scheme%20helps%20first%2Dtime,%2Doff%20self%2Dbuild%20homes.&text=The%20Help%20to%20Buy%20scheme,the%20previous%204%20tax%20years.

So people who are divorced or separated are not eligible for HTB

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

No it would just make people spend their savings on something that they would perceive to hold value like property or accept it and pay the negative rate like most of the business customers have done.

You seem very certain of this, how do you know this, and would spending deposits on mass be equal to bank runs? Is there evidence of high deposit account holders paying negative rates?

[Deleted User]

Villa05 wrote: »

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels. Price is being set by government buying social and investment funds hovering up rentals

So if you want a house in this country have 5+ kids and quit your job or set up an investment fund and dodge any tax government assisted or get a mortgage and default after drawdown

Working is for fools and horses in this country

So are you give up working or are you going to default on your mortgage?

Bubbaclaus

Interesting piece on the Irish Times which basically summarises a point I had made on the property thread a few months back.

"Those who bore the brunt of the Covid hit, those who lost their jobs and livelihoods in such large numbers, were in relatively low-paying service jobs and were not part of the home-buying market in the first place."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/economists-predicted-a-covid-property-collapse-it-hasn-t-happened-1.4449261?mode=amp

Wanderer78

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Interesting piece on the Irish Times which basically summarises a point I had made on the property thread a few months back.

"Those who bore the brunt of the Covid hit, those who lost their jobs and livelihoods in such large numbers, were in relatively low-paying service jobs and were not part of the home-buying market in the first place."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/economists-predicted-a-covid-property-collapse-it-hasn-t-happened-1.4449261?mode=amp

yup, younger generations getting screwed again, and we ll probably do nothing to truly help their property needs either

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys......how will all of this impact property prices?

My three offspring have saved 80k among them this year. This level of saving staggers me.

I would be questioning the level of spending before covid and the moaning about never being able to get on the property ladder

[Deleted User]

For what it is work and it's just an opinion, a fair amount of purchasers are saving a considerable deposit they are able to do this for a variety of reasons that is what is bridging the affordability gap for those on average or less than average. There are a lot of new developments, prices on new developments in the lower and middle market have gone as high as they will go.

Shelga

I'm a FTB, really really hoping to buy in the first quarter of this year, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Supply is atrocious. If I see somewhere I think is half decent, I'm going to try buy it. I dithered too much last year, when we all thought prices might drop. I really don't think that's going to happen now.

The highlights I'm looking forward to:

-Showing up to viewings as a single person, with 456 couples present;
-Reading many many articles about the latest scheme government is throwing taxpayers' money at to "help FTBs get a home" (:rolleyes:) then reaching the bottom of the article and seeing it only applies to new builds, as usual.

Cannot wait!

[Deleted User]

Shelga wrote: »

I'm a FTB, really really hoping to buy in the first quarter of this year, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Supply is atrocious. If I see somewhere I think is half decent, I'm going to try buy it. I dithered too much last year, when we all thought prices might drop. I really don't think that's going to happen now.

The highlights I'm looking forward to:

-Showing up to viewings as a single person, with 456 couples present;
-Reading many many articles about the latest scheme government is throwing taxpayers' money at to "help FTBs get a home" (:rolleyes:) then reaching the bottom of the article and seeing it only applies to new builds, as usual.

Cannot wait!

Why cant you buy a new build?

John Hutton

2021 is the year for me (hopefully) Hope to buy (FTB) in late summer/autumn in a town where I can commute to Dublin. Have a budget of around 200k, have my deposit saved already. Looking to buy a 2/3 bedroom house or Duplex if can't get a house. No apartments.

Currently l'm thinking it will probably be Drogheda, does anyone have any recommendation for any other towns within an hours (public transport) commute of Dublin in my budget? (I've already ruled out Balbriggan).

Shelga

mariaalice wrote: »

Why cant you buy a new build?

I don't think there are any new builds under €300k in Dublin.

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

You seem very certain of this, how do you know this, and would spending deposits on mass be equal to bank runs? Is there evidence of high deposit account holders paying negative rates?

Yes their is evidence business and high net worth have been charged negative rates for years and have tried to shift money around but in the end paid the negative rates as the money had to be parked somewhere.

Retail depositors would react different if it was applied to all deposits as you find people keeping it under their mattress. But if it is introduced on a tiered basis it is deposits that attract the negative rate that get the focus.