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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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Bubbaclaus

Interesting piece on the Irish Times which basically summarises a point I had made on the property thread a few months back.

"Those who bore the brunt of the Covid hit, those who lost their jobs and livelihoods in such large numbers, were in relatively low-paying service jobs and were not part of the home-buying market in the first place."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/economists-predicted-a-covid-property-collapse-it-hasn-t-happened-1.4449261?mode=amp

[Deleted User]

Villa05 wrote: »

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels. Price is being set by government buying social and investment funds hovering up rentals

So if you want a house in this country have 5+ kids and quit your job or set up an investment fund and dodge any tax government assisted or get a mortgage and default after drawdown

Working is for fools and horses in this country

So are you give up working or are you going to default on your mortgage?

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote:

No it would just make people spend their savings on something that they would perceive to hold value like property or accept it and pay the negative rate like most of the business customers have done.

You seem very certain of this, how do you know this, and would spending deposits on mass be equal to bank runs? Is there evidence of high deposit account holders paying negative rates?

brisan

They would still qualify as a FTB provided they left the home and no longer had a financial interest in it.

https://www.lawsociety.ie/globalasse...-notes/ftb.pdf

I checked that link and it seems to be out of date as its from 2005
From the gov.ie website

If you are buying or self-building the property with someone else, they must also be a first-time buyer. You will not qualify if you have previously bought or built a property, either individually or jointly with anyone else, even if you are now separated or divorced from that person.

https://www.gov.ie/en/service/bc9df-help-to-buy-htb-scheme/#:~:text=The%20Help%20to%20Buy%20(HTB)%20scheme%20helps%20first%2Dtime,%2Doff%20self%2Dbuild%20homes.&text=The%20Help%20to%20Buy%20scheme,the%20previous%204%20tax%20years.

So people who are divorced or separated are not eligible for HTB

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels.

Yet there appears to be no struggle selling new developments off plan and posters who are actually buying (rather than market guessing) consistently post about how competitive the market is.

Geuze

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Happy new year to all, best wishes to you and your families.

My prediction for 2021:

- Mother of all recessions will cripple the world.

I may be wrong as i often am but in short i predict a 10-15% drop in Dublin.

Another severe recession, following the very bad 2020 recession?

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Imagine how many thousands of people around the country are in a similar position.
Imagine the impact that might have on property prices.

Very little

Most will be priced out at current levels. Price is being set by government buying social and investment funds hovering up rentals

So if you want a house in this country have 5+ kids and quit your job or set up an investment fund and dodge any tax government assisted or get a mortgage and default after drawdown

Working is for fools and horses in this country

Timing belt

TheSheriff wrote: »

So....

Here's an interesting property/evidence of the vendor asking too much?.

141 Delwood Close, Blanchardstown, originally listed by Flynn EA for €520k last year. Its a four bed semi.

The house originally has a garage attached, this was knocked and planning permission sought for the side site for a new build house. We know the area well and were looking in this park at the time. Our guess was, (as many do in this area), is that the owners would build the new build on the side site, move into it and subsequently sell the original house to clear the costs.

I noticed today the property is back up on the market with DNG at €485k -->https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-2-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475257

The site can now be bought separately for 225 --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-3-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475256

The images of the site are somewhat misleading, as I understand, it is the smaller tar mac'd portion next to the house, not the walled/gated area.

Or both the house and site can be purchased for 695k --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-1-141-delwood-close-plus-site-castleknock-dublin-15/4475258

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here, have they decided this is no longer worth the hassle and are just going to get out.

You could argue, this would have sold better for circa 600k if the garage had been left in situ and the side site retained as part of the original property. Splitting it up like this has devalued it in my opinion.

Who would spend 500k on the main house, not knowing who or what will be build on the site next to it (subject to future planning of course).

images are misleading compared to the Blueprint

Graham

TheSheriff wrote: »

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here

My guess; they'd rather have €710k than €520k. Let someone else have the hassle of building.

TheSheriff

So....

Here's an interesting property/evidence of the vendor asking too much?.

141 Delwood Close, Blanchardstown, originally listed by Flynn EA for €520k last year. Its a four bed semi.

The house originally has a garage attached, this was knocked and planning permission sought for the side site for a new build house. We know the area well and were looking in this park at the time. Our guess was, (as many do in this area), is that the owners would build the new build on the side site, move into it and subsequently sell the original house to clear the costs.

I noticed today the property is back up on the market with DNG at €485k -->https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-2-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475257

The site can now be bought separately for 225 --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-3-141-delwood-close-castleknock-dublin-15/4475256

The images of the site are somewhat misleading, as I understand, it is the smaller tar mac'd portion next to the house, not the walled/gated area.

Or both the house and site can be purchased for 695k --> https://www.dng.ie/residential/brochure/lot-1-141-delwood-close-plus-site-castleknock-dublin-15/4475258

Have to wonder what is going on with the vendor here, have they decided this is no longer worth the hassle and are just going to get out.

You could argue, this would have sold better for circa 600k if the garage had been left in situ and the side site retained as part of the original property. Splitting it up like this has devalued it in my opinion.

Who would spend 500k on the main house, not knowing who or what will be build on the site next to it (subject to future planning of course).

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

Imagine how many thousands of people around the country are in a similar position.

Imagine the impact that might have on property prices.

Cyrus

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Sigh. We are back on this bull****.

Care to elaborate ?

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

Actually two live outside home. All three work in what could be considered new economy and all three have partners who work in new economy.

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

If they are moving out of Rental and into their own property it shouldn't make much of a difference what happens with house prices as the saving on Rent would compensate against any down side risk.

bilbot79

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Happy new year to all, best wishes to you and your families.

My prediction for 2021:

- Mother of all recessions will cripple the world.

- Flood of property will hit the market once the vaccine is rolled out as it appears large segments of the population are fearful of putting properties up for viewing at the moment. This along with new builds will add to supply.

- Despite the beating the global the global economy will suffer, it will likely take some time for it to trickle down into the property market, for this reason i only predict a 10 -15% drop in Dublin.

Going against the herd here but the record high of savings deposits will not make much of an impact on the FTB section of the property market imo. Many of the people who have increased savings by any considerable amount are most likely already property owners, those who are not and who have increased savings due to lock down will not have increased them by enough to make an impact. E.g someone who is on 60-70k per year with no intention of buying or substantial savings, starts saving due to lockdown, even if very frugally, they would only put away at best around 18k (30ish if it's a couple) since March.

I may be wrong as i often am but in short i predict a 10-15% drop in Dublin.

Are you a prospective first time buyer?

Pelezico

bubblypop wrote: »

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

Actually two live outside home. All three work in what could be considered new economy and all three have partners who work in new economy.

None were furloughed, nor were their partners. All are looking to buy.

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

Under normal circumstances, it would not be a surprise. It isn’t unusual for someone to do this when saving to buy a house. What is different about this is that we are supposed to be in a recession and the percentage of people wfh means a huge part of our population now have either wages/Covid payments sitting in their bank account unspent. That could be a hell of a lot of people with deposits for properties and providing their jobs are stable, with increased buying power.

[Deleted User]

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys......how will all of this impact property prices?

My three offspring have saved 80k among them this year. This level of saving staggers me.

Thats only 26,000 each. Not that difficult if you live rent free and off your parents!

Pelezico

Guys......how will all of this impact property prices?

My three offspring have saved 80k among them this year. This level of saving staggers me.

Timing belt

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Sigh. We are back on this bull****.

Of course we are as nobody has money except those people that think they were not impacted by covid because they are so superior to rest of the mere mortals. With such inflated heads like that they will need there own purpose built property with extra wide doors that will fit there big heads but might get away with a normal house if there head is up their.......

Meanwhile the majority of people that were not impacted are thankful that they were not directly impacted.

[Deleted User]

Almost a year after the effects of Covid began to be felt, shouldn’t that huge price drop people were so sure would happen be happening by now? With agreement having been reached on a Brexit deal, vaccine roll out having begun and new property supply being stunted, makes me wonder why people are so sure about prices diving.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Of course, the MMT school of inflation - nothing to see here, it's not real inflation. Hence my original comment about working for a central bank.

Time will tell indeed.

The reason that I don't think there will be any meaningful or long lived inflation as measured by the CPI is because the economy experienced a major deflation and the spending by the government only just about covered this deflation.

Irish households have saved an extra 11bn during the 2020 and this is normal for a recession where people are unsure about the future and has been helped by savings from WFH and less retail opportunities.

I don't see people spending all this money on a big party or once all the shops are back open and instead see the money being spent on more tangible assets such as property, Cars or kept as savings as people are still unsure about the future.

That is why I see inflation in property and not in the CPI or wage inflation.

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

would introducing such thresholds increase the potential of bank runs?

No it would just make people spend their savings on something that they would perceive to hold value like property or accept it and pay the negative rate like most of the business customers have done.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Time will tell...... CPI for Dec is out on the 14th of Jan the same day as RPPI for November

Of course, the MMT school of inflation - nothing to see here, it's not real inflation. Hence my original comment about working for a central bank.

Time will tell indeed.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Bitcoin is not a commodity. I agree it is a pure speculative hedge.

If people are piling into precious metals as a hedge because they expect to see inflation in the future one wonders why gold and silver prices have lagged the broader commodities index. Look at copper, iron ore, soy beans etc, wheat etc - very real inflation in these commodities.

Time will tell...... CPI for Dec is out on the 14th of Jan the same day as RPPI for November

Louis Friend

Yes. And supply of houses remains constrained.

keynes

and those who haven't suffered have now more financial resources to bid up prices

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

What I mean is that it is speculation with investors pilling into gold, Silver, Bitcoin etc as they expect to see inflation in the future. They are not using the Gold or Silver to produce any goods so it will not make its way into the CPI.

Bitcoin is not a commodity. I agree it is a pure speculative hedge.

If people are piling into precious metals as a hedge because they expect to see inflation in the future one wonders why gold and silver prices have lagged the broader commodities index. Look at copper, iron ore, soy beans etc, wheat etc - very real inflation in these commodities.

Louis Friend

I think that prices will increase by 5% or thereabouts.

The less spoken truth is that the people who’ve really suffered during Covid were never likely to buy houses in the first place.

Pelezico

Villa05 wrote: »

How does inflation take off in highly indebted nations on high wages but living paycheck to paycheck. Where is the scope for wage inflation

Is stagflation a more realistic outcome?

I just dont know. I think living standards will fall...except for highly skilled dudes.

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

Inflation in all asset classes abounds. From bitcoin, NASDAQ, Tesla, gold, silver, commodities. Oil at $50 a barrel is very high given usa and europe in recession.

its asset inflation generated by QE and will have little impact on the CPI.

Europe is still struggling with the effects of deflation

https://portal.dataviz.ecb.europa.eu/views/HICP_dashboard_ETS_16049391112180/InflationDashboard?:showAppBanner=false&:display_count=n&:showVizHome=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Pelezico wrote: »

Iron ore booming and demand from China is enormous.

100% agree and in a year or two this may lead to higher shipping costs as a a lot of older ships are being scrapped to meet this demand.