Pelezico wrote: » Happy new year to you. I thought mods were the only ones who could start threads. I think it will be crazy year. Cant see anyone wanting to move...ie buy or sell.
schmittel wrote: » Full disclosure - hoping to do both. Much more likely to be posting through my pocket this year!
Timing belt wrote: » It will be a up and down year with credit conditions tightening at the end of Q1 after bank’s report looses and increase in arrears. But will be offset by people looking for a home for their savings once banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x as they they try to pass on costs of excess liquidity to customers. Overall I predict a 10-15% by the end of the year.
schmittel wrote: » Rise or fall?!
Pelezico wrote: » I think the likes of daft and myhome will start to suffer with fewer properties on the market. We will be in a very grim place until late spring. So one half of thebuying/selling year gone.
ongarite wrote: » Can't see anything but rises in new builds in Dublin and surrounding counties. HTB & people sitting on piles of cash with nothing to spend it on last 9 months. Any new developments I've been looking at have sold within a day in one case and 2 weeks in most others and that's even with COVID restrictions. I've gone sale agreed on my property few weeks ago.For what should be dead time of year for sales, saw property go from on the market to sale agreed in less than a week.
Timing belt wrote: » Rise as money will flow out of deposits in banks and into property
bilbot79 wrote: » Yipeeee. I made first page )))) Hoping prices fall this year
schmittel wrote: » I'm in agreement with the -ve interest rates/fear of inflation theories but 10-15% would be massive rise. What sort of figure do you reckon x will be in "banks start charging negative interest rates on amounts over x"? i.e if that is 100k what point in the market will that effect? it wont be ftb new builds. Do you think people will put their savings into their PPRs or investment properties?
Timing belt wrote: » Think it will start at around 100k but will drop to 50k by end of year. Maybe I am wrong and they don’t do it for some legal reason and sit with losses for the next few years or increase margins on lending to compensate. I think they will spend on personal property mainly as it’s perceived as a safe asset that will hold value. In addition to banks charging negative interest I think the Stock market will have a correction at some stage in Q1 if their is no sign of inflation. Normally people shift funds from shares to bonds when this happens which would lead to lower bond yields. But can see people moving to property as an alternative to avoid negative yields on bonds. And this will drive the investment properties.
schmittel wrote: I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!
Hubertj wrote: » I think the lockdown will be extended to include construction. How long it is for will determine impact on supply for 2021. Many people will not put their house on market until COVID is gone. I think warehouse and industrial prices could increase due to demand brought about by brexit. I don’t think residential prices will increase and we will continue to see regional increases / decreases. Impact of wfh? WeWork and others reported record day pass sales in q4 for some countries. Novelty wearing off. I look forward to hearing about the “vested interests”, conspiracy theories and impending market crash. I also look forward to some insightful discussion based on facts and data. Happy new year all.
Hubertj wrote: » I think the lockdown will be extended to include construction. How long it is for will determine impact on supply for 2021. Many people will not put their house on market until COVID is gone. I think warehouse and industrial prices could increase due to demand brought about by brexit.
Smouse156 wrote: » Happy New Year! As someone looking to buy, hoping for some discounts. Probably likely to find them on homes over 600k or apartments. The stuff with HTB will keep rising and commuter towns also. Overall flat year as Sheriff states +- a few % and Daft trying to spin asking price rises. The bank negative interest rates won’t be a factor at all as most people will just set up new accounts with different banks or pay the cost. I don’t see it being a factor. BOI introduced the €6/month charge as they know most people won’t be bothered moving current account...and they were right! Any small negative interest rate will just be paid by the vast majority or they’ll shift money to new banks to stay under the cap
ongarite wrote: » Can't see anything but rises in new builds in Dublin and surrounding counties. HTB & people sitting on piles of cash with nothing to spend it on last 9 months. Any new developments I've been looking at have sold within a day in one case and 2 weeks in most others and that's even with COVID restrictions.
Pelezico wrote: » Here is the other thing. Lots of multinational workers in Ireland and they have plenty of share options in new economy booming stocks. There is a wealth effect and a lack of supply.
