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Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

gazza1

Thought now was as good a time as any to get your antepost bets up

Mine are as follows

Supreme
Micro Manage 25/1 ew

Champion Hurdle
Saint Roi 14/1

RSA
Latest Exhibition 14/1

Stayers
Thyne Hill 12/1

Mares Novice Hurdle
Shewearsitwell 7/1

Treble
Shishkin 7/2 (arkle)
Honeysuckle 7/2 (mares)
Envoi Allen 3/1 (marsh)

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IAMAMORON

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Not a snowballs chance in hell Cheltenham goes ahead if Irish horses can't travel. It will just be postponed.

I doubt the Brits would give a shight whether or not any Irish horsies gets sent over. They certainly will not cancel or postpone just because of some travel ban initiated by a bald doctor in Dublin. Not a chance, they have an industry to run.

I can see Cheltenham going ahead with or without Irish entries and it is still plausible that connections and a reduced number of fans can attend.

costacorta

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I doubt the Brits would give a shight whether or not any Irish horsies gets sent over. They certainly will not cancel or postpone just because of some travel ban initiated by a bald doctor in Dublin. Not a chance, they have an industry to run.

I can see Cheltenham going ahead with or without Irish entries and it is still plausible that connections and a reduced number of fans can attend.

Cheltenham without Irish horses be like a football match without the ball .

IAMAMORON

costacorta wrote: »

Cheltenham without Irish horses be like a football match without the ball .

The Brits won't give a toss. They have advertising contracts to sell, TV rights, the Racing post have papers to sell - this is an industry.

They certainly will not be pulling the plug based on the agenda of the HSE, believe.

The only folk who would try to stop Irish trained horses going over would be the same anti racing lobby that were hoping to get the entire festival banned last year.

costacorta

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Brits won't give a toss. They have advertising contracts to sell, TV rights, the Racing post have papers to sell - this is an industry.

They certainly will not be pulling the plug based on the agenda of the HSE, believe.

The only folk who would try to stop Irish trained horses going over would be the same anti racing lobby that were hoping to get the entire festival banned last year.

I don’t think there is chance in hell that Cheltenham will have Irish horses or even spectators in less than 12 weeks. Would it be possible to put it back until early May as Surely things should be beginning to open up by then ? . You could be correct and it will go ahead without the Irish horses but I think it would be a total anti climax ..

IAMAMORON

costacorta wrote: »

I don’t think there is chance in hell that Cheltenham will have Irish horses or even spectators in less than 12 weeks. Would it be possible to put it back until early May as Surely things should be beginning to open up by then ? . You could be correct and it will go ahead without the Irish horses but I think it would be a total anti climax ..

I don't think it will come to that.

I think Irish Trainers will be given the option to travel on their own prerogative.

There will be some outrage from the anti racing lobby but that is to be expected.

costacorta

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't think it

I think Irish Trainers will be given the option to travel on their own prerogative.

Sad news for JP https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40199319.html

zpehtsfd

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I doubt the Brits would give a shight whether or not any Irish horsies gets sent over. They certainly will not cancel or postpone just because of some travel ban initiated by a bald doctor in Dublin. Not a chance, they have an industry to run.

I can see Cheltenham going ahead with or without Irish entries and it is still plausible that connections and a reduced number of fans can attend.

Yes an industry that relies heavily on Cheltenham. Just imagine how it would impact betting turnover. We're not talking about a few horses going over for the KG. Cheltenham is not happening without participation from Irish horses.

Pogue eile

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Yes an industry that relies heavily on Cheltenham. Just imagine how it would impact betting turnover. We're not talking about a few horses going over for the KG. Cheltenham is not happening without participation from Irish horses.

So a festival without the Irish would be worse for the industry than no festival, that doesn't make any sense to me?

Betting turnover is not a consideration to be fair, got nothing to do with them. The call would ultimately come down to the BHA and the sponsors.

I think if a call had to be made they would go ahead with it, it would be a very English thing to do really!

IAMAMORON

Agreed. There is no way they would call off the festival just because Irish horses can't attend. Either ways it is a highly hypothetical scenario. My money will be on Irish horses being allowed to travel. They were allowed go to Ascot, I cannot see an issue with Cheltenham.

Furthermore I doubt the betting industry will be too worried about people getting on whatever horses turn up. It certainly won't stop me having a punt.

RivetingRoger

Irish horses will be at Cheltenham. It's ten weeks away lads!!
If course they will
They discussed this on Road to Cheltenham this evening
Its ten weeks lads!!

zpehtsfd

Pogue eile wrote: »

So a festival without the Irish would be worse for the industry than no festival, that doesn't make any sense to me?

Betting turnover is not a consideration to be fair, got nothing to do with them. The call would ultimately come down to the BHA and the sponsors.

I think if a call had to be made they would go ahead with it, it would be a very English thing to do really!

Never said no festival, it will be postponed.

The betting levy is crucial to the BHA, especially the biggest event of the calendar year, so of course it would be a consideration.

By the way if you think the bookies will still honour those AP bets that you are thinking about doing you are dreaming. They'll be voided under the exceptional circumstances clause somewhere in their T&C's. GL

Coneygree

I think it is definitely worth considering at the very least. Anyone who thinks ah it'll be grand has their head in the sand. The UK is a mess and we're not far behind. Vaccines mean **** all and Cheltenham was wrongly given the blunt of the blame on national television this year so there's huge pressure for things to go well. I'm optimistic it'll go ahead as normal, without any spectators other than connections to horses. But I will be making a few bets on English horses just in case. The Supreme, RSA, JLT, Gold Cup, Mares, Triumph would particularly be turned upside down and I haven't many if any English horses backed in those races.

I'd hope that they might postpone it a few weeks if they had to, but like a lot of things recently, it's unknown territory and we'll never know what could happen.

IAMAMORON

I am not sure what the AP scenario might be if the Irish horses were pulled. I would not try to overthink it. It is highly likely that the bookies would reform markets to suit themselves, I wouldn't put anything past the chunts. It was only a couple of years ago that Cry Baby refunded all his AP liabilities because he didn't want to play anymore.

It really would depend on what would cost them less? For example if the horses participation is left to the owners discretion as opposed to the government then they will not be repaying or voiding AP bets. They are under no obligation to do so anyways. I could see some of the bigger providers offering some sort of compensation for punters if the government ruled out the travel, but a free bet at best, I cannot see them handing back the readies.

Anyway I am confident that it will not be an issue.

Pogue eile

zpehtsfd wrote: »

By the way if you think the bookies will still honour those AP bets that you are thinking about doing you are dreaming. They'll be voided under the exceptional circumstances clause somewhere in their T&C's. GL

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

Motivator

If Irish horses can’t travel then the festival won’t happen it’s as simple as that. Look at the makeup of the Grade 1 races, Irish horses make up - for arguments sake, 50% average, of each Grade 1 run at the festival. Then you’d have to factor in the ratings for horses. You could have 2 or 3 runner Grade 1s as there mightn’t be enough horses rated high enough to take part. Or what you have is 2 or 3 genuinely Grade 1 horses and then 8 or 10 no hopers thrown in to pick up some prize money but you could have horses going off 1/3 or mental prices like that. The whole thing would be farcical.

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

The naivety is impressive.

Pogue eile

Motivator wrote: »

If Irish horses can’t travel then the festival won’t happen it’s as simple as that. Look at the makeup of the Grade 1 races, Irish horses make up - for arguments sake, 50% average, of each Grade 1 run at the festival. Then you’d have to factor in the ratings for horses. You could have 2 or 3 runner Grade 1s as there mightn’t be enough horses rated high enough to take part. Or what you have is 2 or 3 genuinely Grade 1 horses and then 8 or 10 no hopers thrown in to pick up some prize money but you could have horses going off 1/3 or mental prices like that. The whole thing would be farcical.

As I said when I raised it as a possible scenario I would rate it as no more that 10-20% likely. To completely dismiss it is simply wrong, there are for bigger vested interests involved in the festival out side of numbers of runners in G1'S and competitiveness. Those two factors wont even be considered.

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

The naivety is impressive.

Go one so, prove me wrong and quote me the rule or even a comparable precedent. As I said I don't place a bet without doing my research. And if you are that paranoid them simply use the exchanges!

RivetingRoger

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Pogue eile

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Tough choice but I reckon she sticks with Minella, course form at the distance just swings it for me.

Anniepowaa

Considering Allaho's runs I wouldn't touch minella indo with a barge pole

longshotvalue

RivetingRoger wrote: »

What ye reckon Rachael will do for GC lads?? Nope she sticks with Indo myself but has to be a doubt now in her mind with what APT did

Probably should go with c/d form Monalee..

lemush

Pogue eile wrote: »

Go one so, prove me wrong and quote me the rule or even a comparable precedent. As I said I don't place a bet without doing my research. And if you are that paranoid them simply use the exchanges!

If there is no comparable precedent then on what are you basing your opinion on? If you think you will get paid full whack if no Irish horses turn up then you are living in cuckoo land.

Simple fact of the matter is that punting GB horses on the slight chance that Irish horses dont show up is a moronic angle anyway.

Pogue eile

lemush wrote: »

If there is no comparable precedent then on what are you basing your opinion on? If you think you will get paid full whack if no Irish horses turn up then you are living in cuckoo land.

Simple fact of the matter is that punting GB horses on the slight chance that Irish horses dont show up is a moronic angle anyway.

What's moronic is your interpretation of what I said. Please show me where I said that I was, or was indeed advocating, backing english horses on the chance that Irish horses wont run??

And you still havent explained on what basis they would refuse to pay out??

zpehtsfd

Pogue eile wrote: »

Trust me I have researched it thoroughly and there isn't any get out for them but I appreciate your concern about my nocturnal activities! It is the very premise of an AP market, and it is up to the layer to allow for such a scenario in their pricing.

There is always a get out for bookies:

"the firm’s decision to void its entire ante-post book there is a reminder for punters that all bookies’ T&Cs allow them to void bets and return stakes at their discretion and without the involvement of the Gambling Commission, which regulates betting and gaming in the UK."

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jun/26/william-hill-bets-void-short-notice

BumperD

Some very interesting points raised that never would have entered my calcs. I do believe the festival will go ahead in March, with the astrazenca solution a gamechanger, its 20% of the cost of pfzier and stores at fridge temp more like a traditional vaccine so is easier roll out. Also, if they delayed March, then it would clash with Fairyhouse/Punch/Aintree so my guess is it goes ahead.

If they wanted to secure some positive PR ahead of March, why not offer the course facilities as a Vaccine delivery site for Jan & February.

Pogue eile

Gove just announced this morning that they 'hope' to be able to start lifting some restrictions in March, so zero chance of any crowds being allowed.

Slattsy

Pogue eile wrote: »

Gove just announced this morning that they 'hope' to be able to start lifting some restrictions in March, so zero chance of any crowds being allowed.

It would take a right imbecile to want to go anyway.

Pogue eile

Slattsy wrote: »

It would take a right imbecile to want to go anyway.

There is a few here that I can think of for starters

Dr. Bre

Pogue eile wrote: »

There is a few here that I can think of for starters

Haha !! Now the question is will the Irish horses be allowed travel