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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

19/12

Running P & L -1.2pts

Invested 36pts

Returns:

All each way bets

Queenohearts 3.15 wins at 5/1 @ a fifth the odds a place returning 8pts
Not So Sleepy 3.35 wins at 20/1 @ a fifth the odds a place returning 26pts
Lightly Squeeze 3.35 places at 22/1 @ a fifth the odds a place returning 5.4pts
Abel Tasman 3.40 (done at 11/4) wins @ a fifth the odds a place returning 5.3pts
Bankawi 4.00 places at 40/1 @ a fifth the odds a place returning 9pts

Total at play 36pts - returns 53.7pts

Profit for the day 17.7pts

Running invested total - 715pts

Total P & L + 16.5pts

[Deleted User]

Already done stats, so these won't count:

For an interest will do Heer We Go Again, Tanasoq, and Ballyare in the 7.30 Wolves.

[Deleted User]

Another for an interest, and not for stats:

8.00 Wolves Beau Tinker. He has seen some money#, is still a colt, and I feel he hasn't been seen to his best yet. Probably the sort that needs to be rousted along to perform to the best of his ability.

#more than half the field have 'seen some money' , owing no doubt to the non-runners (3), so less competition for places..

[Deleted User]

20 Dec

3.45 Southwell Powerallied 22/1 , Alsvinder 11/1, Duke of Firenze 6/1 - all each way..

[Deleted User]

2.20 Fakenham Bolt N Brown 20/1 e/w, Pasley 10/1 e/w

Gluck

[Deleted User]

4.45 Southwell Reely Bonnie 16/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

5.15 Southwell Thecornishbarron 100 e/w . Pure punt this, needs to rediscover form from yrs ago to have a chance in this, and to get his trainer off the cold list.

[Deleted User]

20/12

Running P & L + 16.5pts

Invested 14pts

Returns - none

Total at play 14pts - returns 0

Loss for the day 14pts

Running invested total - 729pts

Total P & L + 2.5pts

pottokblue

Nice picking in the 335 Ascot notsosleepy

[Deleted User]

Thanks Pottokblue.. Was nice to catch a big-priced one

Pity I lost all the profits today

[Deleted User]

21/12

Hopefully we can get a few up for tomorrow for some cheer on shortest day of the year.

Each way the lot

Musselburgh
12.45 Misscarlett 11/1, Gemologist 6/1
1.15 Samtu 33/1
1.45 Lissen To The Lady 12/1, Trongate 15/2
2.15 Chosen Flame 8/1, Keep The River 14/1

Newcastle
2.55 Zafaranah 25/1
3.25 Buzz Lightyere 50/1
4.25 Tathmeen 11/2
4.55 Billy Dylan 22/1
5.25 Epeius 8/1

Lingfield
12.30 Moxy Mares 22/1

[Deleted User]

21/12

Running P & L + 2.5pts

Invested 26pts

Returns:

Moxy Mares 12.30 (done e/w at 22/1) places at a fifth the odds a place with a 10p rule 4 returning 4.9pts
Gemologist 12.45 places at 13/2 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2.3pts
Trongate 1.45 places at 17/2 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2.7pts

Total in play 26pts - returns 9.9pts

Loss for the day 16.1pts

Running invested total - 755pts

Total P & L -13.6pts

[Deleted User]

22/12

The last proper puntin day till Saturday.. Could do with some winners to get some early festive cheer..

All each way

Lingfield
11.45 Aguerooo 8/1
12.45 Lihou 7/2 win on this one
1.45 Mukha Magic 15/2
2.45 Glendun 16/1
3.15 Saucy Encore 9/2

Huntingdon
1.35 Malachys Girl 25/1 A punt, Lady Sally 20/1 less of a punt, Zhiguli 11/2
2.05 Leskinfere 25/1
3.05 Torrent Des Mottes 7/1

Sedgefield
1.25 Frankie Ballou 8/1
2.55 Tico Times 50/1 Another "punt"

I think Frankie Ballou, Saucy Encore, and Lihou have the best chances of obliging us, and finishing in front.

Gluck all, and Happy Christmas

[Deleted User]

12.35 Akarita Lights 12/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

22/12

Running P & L -13.6pts

Invested 25pts

Returns:
1.35 Zhiguli (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
1.25 Frankie Ballou (done e/w at 8/1) places at a quarter the odds a place returning 3pts

Total in play 25pts - returns 11.6pts

Loss for the day 13.4pts

Running invested total - 780pts

Total P & L -27pts

[Deleted User]

26/12/2020 St Stephen's Day

Going each way for the interest on all..

Wincanton
12.25 Bleue Away 50/1 , Crem Fresh 40/1 - 2 punts. Belle De Manach 8/1
12.59 Early Morning Rain 8/1
1.34 Normandy Soldier 8/1 , Broadclyst 5/1
2.10 Chinwag 15/2 , Molliana 20/1 , Glockenspiel 22/1 , Minnie Escape 6/1
2.45 Mario De Pail 9/2 , Shang Tang 11/4
3.19 Francky Du Berlais 11/2 , Another Emotion 12/1

Leopardstown
2.15 Franco De Port 8/1 , Darver Star 10/3 , Embittered 8/1 . Only 2 plcs here, so really need to get the winner

Wolverhampton
1.45 Fashion Free 11/2 , Kingson 7/1 , Golden Cygnet 12/1 , Aqaareb 16/1
2.20 Daheer 9/2
2.55 Inn The Bull 10/1
3.30 Misty Grey 11/4 , Amarillo Star 8/1
4.15 Fizzy Feet 8/1

Kempton
1.15 Falco Blitz 10/1
3.00 Cyrname 5/2 , Waiting Patiently 14/1
3.35 Rathhill 8/1

Wetherby
11.50 Timeless Beauty 16/1
12.20 Kings Cave 8/1 , Mill Race King 12/1
12.53 Raddle And Hum 8/1 , Kyoto Star 33/1
1.28 Demi Sang 11/1 , Johnbb 9/4
2.05 Wandrin Star 15/2 , Snow Leopardess 4/1
2.40 Arthur Mac 13/2 , Kilbrook 11/4, Presentedwithwings 13/2
3.13 Just The Man 8/1 , Suggestion 12/1, Seaborough 50/1

Best of luck

IAMAMORON

I fancy Ben Pauling's in the first at Kempton. WIN ONLY.

Volcano is going on Sunday.

Happy Christmas leffesem.

Remarkable that Daithí Mullins is so underrated , the only pilot ever to steer a chase maiden around Aintree for 4 miles, he rocks. Whats he riding in the Paddy Power ?

Brian Cooper should be getting more rides also. If he had a set of balls he would head over the sea and clean them up. He won me a fortune on Our Conor and his oul lad had total enjoyment just handy. Great trainer all said. Look out for Jonesy in the bumper I hear its a serious machine.

Happy Christmas punters.

[Deleted User]

Thanks Moron

Happy Christmas to you too

And all the punters on here

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

26/12/2020 St Stephen's Day

Going each way for the interest on all..

Wincanton
12.25 Bleue Away 50/1 , Crem Fresh 40/1 - 2 punts. Belle De Manach 8/1
12.59 Early Morning Rain 8/1
1.34 Normandy Soldier 8/1 , Broadclyst 5/1
2.10 Chinwag 15/2 , Molliana 20/1 , Glockenspiel 22/1 , Minnie Escape 6/1
2.45 Mario De Pail 9/2 , Shang Tang 11/4
3.19 Francky Du Berlais 11/2 , Another Emotion 12/1

Leopardstown
2.15 Franco De Port 8/1 , Darver Star 10/3 , Embittered 8/1 . Only 2 plcs here, so really need to get the winner

Wolverhampton
1.45 Fashion Free 11/2 , Kingson 7/1 , Golden Cygnet 12/1 , Aqaareb 16/1
2.20 Daheer 9/2
2.55 Inn The Bull 10/1
3.30 Misty Grey 11/4 , Amarillo Star 8/1
4.05 Fizzy Feet 8/1

Kempton
1.15 Falco Blitz 10/1
3.00 Cyrname 5/2 , Waiting Patiently 14/1
3.35 Rathhill 8/1

Wetherby
11.50 Timeless Beauty 16/1
12.20 Kings Cave 8/1 , Mill Race King 12/1
12.53 Raddle And Hum 8/1 , Kyoto Star 33/1
1.28 Demi Sang 11/1 , Johnbb 9/4
2.05 Wandrin Star 15/2 , Snow Leopardess 4/1
2.40 Arthur Mac 13/2 , Kilbrook 11/4, Presentedwithwings 13/2
3.13 Just The Man 8/1 , Suggestion 12/1, Seaborough 50/1

Best of luck

1.34 Normandy Soldier NR

Fizzy Feet runs in Wolves 4.05 - not 4.15

Gluck

[Deleted User]

26/12

Running P & L -27pts

Invested 90pts. Normandy Soldier 1.34 NR @ 2pts. Suggestion 3.13 NR @ 2pts. 86pts in play.

Returns:

Wolves
3.30 Misty Grey (done e/w at 11/4) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 5.3pts.

Kempton
1.15 Falco Blitz (done e/w at 10s) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 2.8pts.
3.00 Waiting Patiently (done e/w at 14/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3.8pts.

Wetherby
11.50 Timeless Beauty (done e/w at 16s) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 4.2pts
2.05 Snow Leopardess (done e/w at 4/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 1.7pts

Leopardstown
2.15 Franco De Port wins at 8/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 12pts
2.15 Darver Star places at 4/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 2pts

Wincanton
12.25 Belle De Manech (done e/w at 8/1) wins with a fifth the odds a place returning 11.6pts
2.10 Chinwag (done e/w at 15/2) wins with a fifth the odds a place returning 11pts
2.10 Molliana (done e/w at 20s) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 5pts
2.10 Minnie Escape places at 9/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.8pts
3.19 Francky Du Berlais (done e/w at 11/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.1pts
3.19 Another Emotion places at 12/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 3.4pts

Total in play 86pts - returns 67.7pts

Loss for the day 18.3pts

Running invested total - 866pts

Total P & L -45.3pts

[Deleted User]

28/12

Haven't been having much joy lately. Have a few picked out at decent prices, and cases can be made for them all. All go at Newcastle, and all each way.

2.55 Greengage 6/1
Very consistent over C & D. She should go close on the back of her win lto over today's track, trip, and grade. Raised just 2lbs for that win.

4.05 Clay Regazzoni 12/1
Very nice each way price. Provided he goes the short way around he can be involved at the finish. He is only 3, and is open to improvement. Last run over C & D not as bad as it looks, as the horse ran keen and wide a lot of the way. That was a Class 4, and he tackles a Class 5 here.

4.35 Paddyplex 12/1
Can win here off his handicap rating. If the jockey Billy Garritty can get him settled, he should be bang in contention at the two pole. The 5lb claim should help too.

5.05 Dramatista 15/2
This 3yr old filly is yet to win in 7 starts. Latest run at the course where she came third reads well; albeit over a furlong further.

5.35 Firsteen 25/1
Not a complete forlorn hope. This filly is having her third run for Rebecca Menzies today. Came 2nd before over C & D off a higher mark in August of last year. Was also drawn 1 that day.

6.05 Fendale 8/1
Topweight in a handicap, and may have a bit in hand. He is having his second run in a row in a Class 5 over C & D. Most of his runs have been in much better races than this. Has won 4 times before, with all of those wins over the minimum trip. If Graham Lee can get the tactics right the selection may get his first win over 6fs.

Could do with a change of luck, and think I have a decent chance of reducing the thread deficit with the above selections.

Gluck anyone who's still following :pac:

[Deleted User]

12.55 Catt
A strange and tricky race this, with a few gambles.
Will chance Tortuga Bay 7/2 win, and Pepper Street 22/1 e/w

Gluck

[Deleted User]

2.00 Catt

Bravantina 50/1 e/w

Just 1 run over the sticks, when third at Wetherby in February. That was in soft ground and in a fast time. A competitive race here with two proper hotpots at the top of the betting. A place would be a result here. If the Mare can replicate, or build on that Wetherby run; at the prices it's hard to ignore her.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

28/12

5.35 Firsteen 25/1
Not a complete forlorn hope. This filly is having her third run for Rebecca Menzies today. Came 2nd before over C & D off a higher mark in August of last year. Was also drawn 1 that day.

Had no chance there. Mulrennan the *%$*& in the three box comes out and goes straight to his left forcing Insurplus in the two box right into Firsteen, and jamming her into the rail :mad:

Only beaten for fourth by about a half length at the end :mad:

Horse in the two box Insurplus went wrong; probably put down.. Effin Paul Mulrennan - definitely cost me at least a place there :mad: :mad:

:mad:

Not a word about it from comms :rolleyes::rolleyes:

MyStubbleItches

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Had no chance there. Mulrennan the *%$*& in the three box comes out and goes straight to his left forcing Insurplus in the two box right into Firsteen, and jamming her into the rail :mad:

Only beaten for fourth by about a half length at the end :mad:

Horse in the two box Insurplus went wrong; probably put down.. Effin Paul Mulrennan - definitely cost me at least a place there :mad: :mad: :mad:

Not a word about it from comms :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Jesus. You really think Mulrennan is to blame for his horse going left straight out of the stalls? The horse that broke down did so much later in the race, may or may not have been a result of the start. But worst of all you’re blaming him for your horse not finishing better. Get your priorities right and maybe consider packing in the gambling if you’re going to go off on rants like that looking to blame someone else when you lose. Especially when a horse is badly injured like that.

[Deleted User]

On the other hand - if it were an apprentice done what Mulrennan did (irregardless of the ungainliness of their charge) ; the two (Sir Bob, and that beardy company man in the studio) of them would have been all over that incident

. Especially with a horse coming to grief..

Nothing against Tommo there; he was merely the racecaller, and had enough to be at...

It would have been blah blah blah - the jockey caused interference, and ultimately a horse caught up in the scrimmage came to grief... I think a ban has to be in the offing... A week definitely a bit harsh, but perhaps a day or two... That would have been the tone of the conversation; that, if I was a betting man, I would have taken evens on happening...

I'm only "ranting" on here cause I got no succour from the presenters/pundit(s),,,,,, Nothing, nada...... Tumbleweeds :pac: :mad:

[Deleted User]

28/12

Running P & L -45.3pts

Invested 17pts

Returns:

4.05 Clay Regazzoni comes placed at 14/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3.8pts
5.05 Dramatista (done e/w at 15/2) comes placed at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 2.4pts
6.05 Fendale comes placed at 25/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6pts

Total in play 17pts - returns 12.2pts

Loss for the day 4.8pts

Running invested total - 883pts

Total P & L -50.1pts

[Deleted User]

A poor day again today... Down about 35% in the last 300pts, or so invested... That's chronic

Couldn't do any worse if I tried (would be doing well to match, or come close to that rubbish strike rate; if I was doing it on purpose :mad:

)

Will keep trying tho.. :P

[Deleted User]

29/12

Apparently a precautionary

inspection at Kelso tomorrow :pac: . To the uninitiated, one would be forgiven for thinking that that would mean at least an 80% chance of the meeting going ahead. I'd take 4/1 every time about a meeting being abandoned after the so-called "precautionary inspection"

Assuming it does go ahead, the selections at the meeting are..

Kelso

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose 10/3
Latest run was a major improvement, when coming 2nd over slightly further at the course. One of the more interesting contenders here.

12.12 Deluxe Range 4/1
Another one who showed improved form lto.

1.22 Milvale 11/2
Came first over C & D in Feb on heavy in a good time. Will do here.

3.07 Charmix 14/1
Can be given a chance over this staying trip on soft ground in a Class 4. Jockey's second ride on this horse. He got a spin on the selection in a higher class race, over a shorter trip, on unsuitable ground lto. I expect this one to be held up, and perhaps the plan is to give the jockey P Wadge a winner.

Late Date 18/1
Is capable of making all. Low weight and jockey's 10lb claim will help.

Scoop The Pot 11/4
Might as well include Kevin Brogan's mount, who won well lto.

And a trusty flat meeting on the AW under the fog:

Southwell

3.55 Red Jasper 11/2
Second over C & D four runs back gives him a chance here.

4.30 Zeyzoun 40/1
This one's a punt, and one of two the trainer Alex Dunn has in the race. The straw I'm clutching at is that this race is two furlongs further than the 6yr old has tackled before.

5.00 Soller Bay 9/1
This one I like. Tim Easterby in cracking form, 1st time eyeshield, only her fourth run, and was staying on late and well over a furlong shorter at Newcastle lto when beaten less than 2lgths.

6.30 Giogiobbo 5/4 Win
Should win

7.00 Hotalena 3/1
I think this 2yr old is on the improve. Darragh Keenan gets the leg up for the first time and takes off 3.

All each way apart from the 1 win selection. A few of these have shortened a bit since I started looking at them eg Giogiobbo was 15/8, and Hotalena 11/2 about an hour or so ago.... Ah well

Anyway, I just want a few winners, and mebbe I'll get some.. Am due

Gluck

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

1.22 Milvale 11/2
Came first over C & D in Feb on heavy in a good time. Will do here.

5.00 Soller Bay 9/1
This one I like. Tim Easterby in cracking form, 1st time eyeshield, only her fourth run, and was staying on late and well over a furlong shorter at Newcastle lto when beaten less than 2lgths.

6.30 Giogiobbo 5/4 Win
Should win

7.00 Hotalena 3/1
I think this 2yr old is on the improve. Darragh Keenan gets the leg up for the first time and takes off 3.

All each way apart from the 1 win selection. A few of these have shortened a bit since I started looking at them eg Giogiobbo was 15/8, and Hotalena 11/2 about an hour or so ago.... Ah well

Anyway, I just want a few winners, and mebbe I'll get some.. Am due

Gluck

Picked out a couple of these mebbe two hours ago. Milvale was 7/1 I think, and Soller Bay was 11-12/1 when I first checked their prices. Didn't want to get my few shillings on too early; lest I be seen as greedy. Soller Bay still good at the price taken.

As for Giogiobbo; if I first looked, and saw that he was only 5/4 I might have let him off. But, I had a good enough look and was nae gonna waste my time by not backing him.

Was too busy watching the darts scoreboard instead of firing my own

. Brendan Dolan done well enough to just lose by the odd set taking Price all the way. A good performance from the NI man.

That'll learn me for not backing them when I see them :pac:

As well as writing out an opinion piece as to their chances