Scottish independence

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Assuming you are correct about voting yes in 2014, you must have been insane then?

I do not know anyone who has changed their mind on independence due to no longer wanting to be independent. I know plenty in my job who have observed with shock how the view of the people in Scotland have been ignored since 2014 and have now decided they would rather take their chance as an independent country

I was younger, ignorant back then.. like most young people, hold idealistic views about a variety of topics like immigration, the EU, government, welfare, etc.

I've grown up, seen the world, gained life experience, and see the world for what it is.

I'm now Conservative voting

9% of Scotland were foreign born in 2017 - https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/...ublication.pdf, England at 14% certainly leading it all the same.

Doesn't tell the whole story for a variety of reasons

A Dub in Glasgo

sam1986uk wrote: »

It seems insane to separate from our brothers and sisters who share the same island

Assuming you are correct about voting yes in 2014, you must have been insane then?

I do not know anyone who has changed their mind on independence due to no longer wanting to be independent. I know plenty in my job who have observed with shock how the view of the people in Scotland have been ignored since 2014 and have now decided they would rather take their chance as an independent country

sam1986uk wrote: »

Increasing uncertain world.. Our sphere of influence is diminishing and other world powers are emerging..

It seems insane to separate from our brothers and sisters who share the same island. Why? to become an insignificant little backwater of the EU that does as it's told?

Do you mean Scotland's sphere of influence? Or Britain's? I don't see how if you were keen on independence in 2014 your sphere of influence has been changed dramatically in the last 6 years? In fact, I wonder what your final question would look like if we simply applied it to Scotland's role and voice within the UK instead?

I have a great many friends who would have wavered and voted no in 2014 due to the economic questions holding strong for them, they've however seen the basis for those questions undermined by a UK gov paying zero heed of any of Scotland's genuine issues with regards to its wishes.

sam1986uk wrote: »

The SNP don't care so much about independence per se. It's just an opportunity to push the fast left agendas onto its people.

The Scottish National Party don't care about Independence? Is it not their very meaning?

sam1986uk wrote: »

The only reason the English voted for Brexit and we didn't.. They've experienced the harsh reality of being flooded with hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans ..

Experience of immigration correlated strongly with "Remain" votes within England, areas which had experienced the least immigration were markedly "Leave". I think this requires further questioning.

sam1986uk wrote: »

We have not..

9% of Scotland were foreign born in 2017 - https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/population-estimates/pop-cob-17/pop-cob-nat-17-publication.pdf, England at 14% certainly leading it all the same.

sam1986uk wrote: »

We're rural and scarcely populated, immigrants generally don't want to come here.

Scotland's fantastic (imo) planning laws mean that population densities at urban centres are large, and rural sprawl is not permitted. Its population densities are concentrated in conurbations and built up areas. I don't really understand the argument, and it also doesn't really appear true?

sam1986uk wrote: »

Why? to become an insignificant little backwater of the EU that does as it's told?

As opposed to an insignificant little backwater of the UK that does what its told?

Same argument could have been used for Ireland, and yet being a small independant member of the EU is working quite well for us.

The idea of us trading what we have now for what Scotland has is laughable it seems like such a bad deal.

Deleted User wrote: »

Could I ask you to explain why?

I have read many arguments presented to explain people switching the other way, but I've not yet heard many reasons why someone who supported Scottish Independence in 2014 would now choose otherwise.

Increasing uncertain world.. Our sphere of influence is diminishing and other world powers are emerging..

It seems insane to separate from our brothers and sisters who share the same island. Why? to become an insignificant little backwater of the EU that does as it's told?

The SNP don't care so much about independence per se. It's just an opportunity to push the fast left agendas onto its people. The only reason the English voted for Brexit and we didn't.. They've experienced the harsh reality of being flooded with hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans .. We have not.. We're rural and scarcely populated, immigrants generally don't want to come here.

SNP will be voting against Brexit Bill

sam1986uk wrote: »

I actually voted yes in 2014. This time it will be no

Could I ask you to explain why?

I have read many arguments presented to explain people switching the other way, but I've not yet heard many reasons why someone who supported Scottish Independence in 2014 would now choose otherwise.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Scotland will not be allowed to keep sterling while rejoining the EU. Scots are very unlikely to vote leave if they have to take the jump into the Euro too.

Oh right?

The same way Sweden are using the euro...

A Dub in Glasgo

The newspapers over here finally started to report on the upcoming court case taken by a member of the public and crowdfunded

Update just arrived in my inbox

Update on Peoples Action on Section 30

Merry Christmas and a Happy Hogmanay when it comes.
This will be the final update for 2020. We're fully on-course for the hearing on the 21st and 22nd of January, although there will likely be a hearing in the interim with respect to some documents. We'll let you know more nearer the time. This will have no effect on the substantive hearing.
In addition, I can confirm that the re-opening of the fundraiser has seen an additional £18000 added to the war chest and it continues to trundle along at pace. We'd appreciate it if you could continue to promote it.
Link: http://www.crowdjustice.com/pas30
I can also confirm that from today, from the different avenues of support, we have officially moved into 5 figures with respect to backing for the case. The case is now supported by over 10,000 people. Woohoo!
As always, I shall update you as more information becomes available, but until then I hope you are all happy, healthy and have managed to find yourself just a modicum of normality in the insanity that is a lockdown holiday.

All the best

Martin Keatings

Capt'n Midnight

This is a very bad deal for Scotland, which will terminate our membership of the EU, rip us out of the world's largest single market and customs union, end our freedom of movement rights, and impose mountains of red tape, added costs and barriers to trade for Scottish businesses.
...
The Scottish government has claimed the Brexit deal could cost Scotland's economy more than £9bn by 2030 compared with remaining in the EU.

They said a forecast 6.1% drop in GDP was equivalent to losing £1,600 per person.

listermint wrote: »

What will you be voting. After all your a Scot...

I actually voted yes in 2014. This time it will be no

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland will not be allowed to keep sterling while rejoining the EU. Scots are very unlikely to vote leave if they have to take the jump into the Euro too.

Please explain this with reference to the fact that Scotland already produces it's own notes and by law they are backed up by an equal amount of English Sterling.

So tethering to English Sterling is trivial even if the English don't want to do it. Just like we did.

Switching to the Euro would not be desirable while other Sterling areas are the main trading partners. And it would only be possible when the convergence criteria were met. Sweden joined the EU in 1995 and kinda keeps not doing the whole ERM II convergence / Euro thing.

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Denmark should also be in the Euro but aren't ... yet.

I think they mean a future requirement to joining the EU would require adopting the euro.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland will not be allowed to keep sterling while rejoining the EU. Scots are very unlikely to vote leave if they have to take the jump into the Euro too.

Scotland can have their own currency. Of course they can if they are an independent nation in charge of their own destiny. That is what voting for independence is all about.

The new Scottish currency can be linked to any major currency, or a basket of currencies - it is up to them once they are independent. Of course the financial markets may or may not take a dim view of their choices, but they can adjust them based on their trading pattern.

That is what independence would mean, and that is what the Scottish electorate would be voting on.

They voted to stay in the EU, but were forced to leave by Westminster. Their views on the type of Brexit they favoured were not just ignored, they were not even consulted. That is the kind of issue that will increase the vote for independence.

First Up

sam1986uk wrote:

I predict the Independence polling will go back down to a normal 45% next year when the average pleb realizes that Brexit is not a disaster and they're still buying tomatoes and tangerines in Tesco whilst planning their next holiday in Tenerife.

They won't be doing as much of that if they have lost their jobs.

listermint

What will you be voting. After all your a Scot...

I predict the Independence polling will go back down to a normal 45% next year when the average pleb realizes that Brexit is not a disaster and they're still buying tomatoes and tangerines in Tesco whilst planning their next holiday in Tenerife.

Scotland will not be allowed to keep sterling while rejoining the EU. Scots are very unlikely to vote leave if they have to take the jump into the Euro too.

Water John wrote: »

The SNP would want not only the majority of seats but also the popular vote. Over 50% of the pop would want Indy.

The SNP is not the only pro-independance party in Scotland, the Greens for example are also pro-independance. Allowing space in the nationalist movement for pro-independance voters who, for whatever reason, don't like the SNP is important.

Water John

The SNP would want not only the majority of seats but also the popular vote. Over 50% of the pop would want Indy.

pixelburp

Water John wrote: »

Yes, turning a GE or Hollyrood vote into a Ref is a runner. But also lay emphasis and count the popular vote.
SNP simply put one item on their election manifesto. Don't cloud it with any other issues. Nobody can then deny what people would have voted for.

But ultimately, hasn't every vote for the SNP been for independence to a greater or lesser extent? The party has never been coy or subtle about its intentions, while the possibility became more realistic since the devolved parliament came into being in 1999. When independence was shot down in 2014 I honestly thought that might cause a downturn in the SNPs fortunes yet 6/7 years later here we are, they're arguably as popular as ever (Brexit possibly causing buyers remorse, coupled with Sturgeon's leadership [such that she even polled well in England}])

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

It simply would mean the majority of the pop don't want Ind. SNP or any political movement has no validity if it would shirk the test as to their raison d'tere.

To quote Tipp O'Neil, 'When you have the votes, take the vote!'

If they go for an election structured as a referendum, and they lose, then that is it for a loooong time. On the other hand, to go into the Assembly/local elections and get enough votes/seats then they will be able to pressure for IndyRef2 with more pep in their step.

Remember Johnson won an eighty seat majority on 43% of the vote. A massive mandate. If the SNP win an overall majority in the Assembly, even on less than 50% of the vote, they can claim a mandate for whatever they have in their manifesto.

They cannot be certain what dirty tricks will be pulled by the Tories.

Water John

Sam Russell wrote: »

Fine if they win. Might backfire if they do not.

It simply would mean the majority of the pop don't want Ind. SNP or any political movement has no validity if it would shirk the test as to their raison d'tere.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

Yes, turning a GE or Hollyrood vote into a Ref is a runner. But also lay emphasis and count the popular vote.
SNP simply put one item on their election manifesto. Don't cloud it with any other issues. Nobody can then deny what people would have voted for.

Fine if they win. Might backfire if they do not.

Water John

Yes, turning a GE or Hollyrood vote into a Ref is a runner. But also lay emphasis and count the popular vote.
SNP simply put one item on their election manifesto. Don't cloud it with any other issues. Nobody can then deny what people would have voted for.

Markcheese wrote: »

I assume that hollyrood will angle to hold a referendum with or without westminster approval ,
And if (as likely) it's without .. they'll play it to their advantage ...
If westminster complain or even better try suppress the poll then "they're suppressing democracy"
If they don't complain it's tacit approval .. which allows the SNP to claim it's a valid poll ( if having no legal standing ) ,. And the higher the turnout the more they get to claim " it's the will of the people "
And the current tory brexit rhetoric all helps ,so the SNP would be daft to pass up on the opportunity..

An unapproved poll would be boycotted by those opposing independance. As was the case in Catalonia, such a referendum would be of little use. Possibly better to turn an election into a referendum on independance by committng to a UDI in an election manifesto.

pixelburp

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Oh, absolutely but today's Tories seem incapable of thinking even a week or two ahead. That'll be future Boris' problem or whoever succeeds him. For now though, it'll cellotape the union together and that'll do him.

Well that's true. Even by the metrics of Western democracies this Tory government has seemed stunningly short term in its thinking. I can see this referendum being much uglier than the last unfortunately, as said Tories seem less capable of subtly and, without having a better term at hand, charm.

Markcheese

I assume that hollyrood will angle to hold a referendum with or without westminster approval ,
And if (as likely) it's without .. they'll play it to their advantage ...
If westminster complain or even better try suppress the poll then "they're suppressing democracy"
If they don't complain it's tacit approval .. which allows the SNP to claim it's a valid poll ( if having no legal standing ) ,. And the higher the turnout the more they get to claim " it's the will of the people "
And the current tory brexit rhetoric all helps ,so the SNP would be daft to pass up on the opportunity..

ancapailldorcha

pixelburp wrote: »

Deny a 2nd referendum and you'd have to imagine that'll simply play into the hands of those chasing independence; the combo of Tories and Boris Johnson have been a gift to Scots angling to breakaway and almost feels like each time Johnston opens his mouth on the subject of Scotland, support for independence creeps up a point. If he then presides over a denial of a indy rerun, I can't see that going well.

Better to give it to them, and spend the time and money on Better Together Mk 2 than resist and make the result inevitable. Though what angle they'll possibly use this time, given Brexit and all its facets of chaos, is beyond me. Only thing I can think of is to genuinely give the Scots that Devo Max bullshít once promised -, though the IM bill didn't give credence Westminster cares that much for Hollyrood that they'd then give it more powers.

Oh, absolutely but today's Tories seem incapable of thinking even a week or two ahead. That'll be future Boris' problem or whoever succeeds him. For now though, it'll cellotape the union together and that'll do him.