Scottish independence

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Didn't I say that? :P

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As it happens, the technicalities surrounding German reunification are fascinating.

East Germany didn't technically rejoin the West. The East German state ceased to exist and the former Lander as they were, all rejoined as separate states. And thus the West expanded rather than have another country join it to ensure no complications with membership of the EC etc. ie. The current German state is NOT a successor State but a continuation of the previous state, albeit an expanded one.

Ireland has gotten a declaration that NI will automatically join the EU on reunification. No ifs or buts. Cracking piece of diplomacy from Kenny and Co.

Further to that: - the UK wanted East Germany (the DDR) to join as a separate country, but Ireland and others backed the DDR dissolving into West Germany, and becoming Germany.

Angela Merkel has shown solidarity with Ireland as a result of the position we took then. Pity we did not get that at the time of the crash, but German banks were on the hook if she did.

Winters

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. If NI becomes part of Ireland (the state) then it is part of a state which is a member of the EU. NI being reabsorbed into the EU is an automatic consequences of this. This is exactly what happened, when the former East Germany became part of the Federal Republic, which was already a member state.

But if Scotland leaves the UK it isn't becoming part of an existing member state. It will become a new state all on its own. That state can they apply for membership of the European Union, but membership will be neither automatic nor immediate.

This would have been a lot easier for Scotland if England and Wales had left the UK.

Just a simple name change would have been needed then. A 'rebranding' so to speak...

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Further to that: - the UK wanted East Germany (the DDR) to join as a separate country, but Ireland and others backed the DDR dissolving into West Germany, and becoming Germany.

Yup!

Thatcher was some piece of work. It's precisely why Germany takes a keen interest in Ireland and reunification here.

What is it with the British and using 'Partition' as there solution?

[Hypothetical; i know what it's all about]

Angela Merkel has shown solidarity with Ireland as a result of the position we took then. Pity we did not get that at the time of the crash, but German banks were on the hook if she did.

Tbf... Actually, let's not get into that one.

The Welsh are looking to a Ref by 2026:
https://www.thejournal.ie/wales-independence-referendum-5296146-Dec2020/

TheCitizen

Sam Russell wrote: »

Further to that: - the UK wanted East Germany (the DDR) to join as a separate country, but Ireland and others backed the DDR dissolving into West Germany, and becoming Germany.

Angela Merkel has shown solidarity with Ireland as a result of the position we took then. Pity we did not get that at the time of the crash, but German banks were on the hook if she did.

Have no memory of that. For a crowd who value their sovereignty and independence and not being telt what to do by the Germans and French etc., the Brits don’t half like to stick their oar in on others affairs

pixelburp

Water John wrote: »

The Welsh are looking to a Ref by 2026:
https://www.thejournal.ie/wales-independence-referendum-5296146-Dec2020/

Last I saw, I could have sworn support for independence was around the 30%, so strikes as a much bigger swing than the Scots' own. Even if that number could be raised I believe there's a large English demographic within Wales, larger than the northern country and would put a ceiling on any itch for breaking away.

Presently it's at 25% pro independence. SNP was at a very low base. Depends a lot now on a Brexit shambles.

L1011

pixelburp wrote: »

Last I saw, I could have sworn support for independence was around the 30%, so strikes as a much bigger swing than the Scots' own. Even if that number could be raised I believe there's a large English demographic within Wales, larger than the northern country and would put a ceiling on any itch for breaking away.

The thing with the Welsh Nationalists is that quite a few of them would be willing to lose Monmouthshire (70% against Devolution in 97, against the extended Devolution in 11, votes Tory consistently except for a UKIP blip in the additional member votes last time) in an instant if it assisted the numbers.

You won't find SNP supporters offering to cut off the Borders or SF/SDLP supporters in favour of a second partition attempt in comparison.

The next election is likely to just shuffle around the hard anti-independence vote - UKIP last time, could be the Abolish party this time or just go Tory - and the soft anti independence vote which goes between Labour, Lib Dem and Tory. It'll take a hard Brexit and further severe hits to the Welsh economy to start driving up Plaid beyond that 20% or so they can get.

Mr.Nice Guy

I've been surprised at the rising poll numbers in favour of Welsh independence. They seem to be around the mark Scotland's numbers were at when the original referendum was called under Salmond. I'd be surprised if Wales sustains it, though. I get the sense that Wales is much closer to England psychologically and politically than Scotland, which seems to have a very different philosophy on the kind of country it wants. I think if Scotland goes, Wales would ultimately be content with a devo max type arrangement rather than follow them out the door.

With Assemblies in Scotland, Wales and NI, Westminister should have moved much faster with further devolution. Now, it's too little to late IWT.
Should have looked to a Federation but the British would not countenance that, treating the other three as equals.

Water John wrote: »

With Assemblies in Scotland, Wales and NI, Westminister should have moved much faster with further devolution. Now, it's too little to late IWT.
Should have looked to a Federation but the British would not countenance that, treating the other three as equals.

What is missing is either an assembly for England or assemblies for each of the currently regions of England. Those regions would have populations similar to Scotland. I think the right solution is for 8 or 9 regions for England. The powers should the maximum that would be reasonable - in line with the EU concept of subsidiarity.

If this was done, there could then be equal powers for each assembly, and Westminster could then put quill to parchment and write a unified constitution.

Now that might reduce the push for Scottish independence.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

What is missing is either an assembly for England or assemblies for each of the currently regions of England. Those regions would have populations similar to Scotland. I think the right solution is for 8 or 9 regions for England. The powers should the maximum that would be reasonable - in line with the EU concept of subsidiarity.

If this was done, there could then be equal powers for each assembly, and Westminster could then put quill to parchment and write a unified constitution.

Now that might reduce the push for Scottish independence.

With no-deal Brexit around the corner, I think that ship has sailed, especially after all the unfulfilled promises from the last referendum. Any promise of change if the Scots stay in the Union will not be seen as credible.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

With no-deal Brexit around the corner, I think that ship has sailed, especially after all the unfulfilled promises from the last referendum. Any promise of change if the Scots stay in the Union will not be seen as credible.

Obviously, no Scot would trust a Sassanach after the last time, or the time before.

Devolution first, and then Indyref2.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Obviously, no Scot would trust a Sassanach after the last time, or the time before.

Devolution first, and then Indyref2.

They have devolution?

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One must not forget that the NE Region voted against a regional assembly in 2004.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

There's no appetite in England. But you have to remember that they think Westminster as solely their parliament. Devolution for England as a whole would be more likely to pass.

Any subsequent regionalism can start from there then.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They have devolution?

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One must not forget that the NE Region voted against a regional assembly in 2004.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_North_East_England_devolution_referendum

There's no appetite in England. But you have to remember that they think Westminster as solely their parliament. Devolution for England as a whole would be more likely to pass.

Any subsequent regionalism can start from their then.

Scotland and NI will be long gone out the gap. If the English have no appetite for it, those are the consequences. How people preceive things is often down poor political judgement and skill of those in power.

Water John wrote: »

Scotland and NI will be long gone out the gap. If the English have no appetite for it, those are the consequences. How people preceive things is often down poor political judgement and skill of those in power.

Well, both NI and Scotland are reliant on the approval of Westminster before any referendum can be held. So how is that overcome?

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, both NI and Scotland are reliant on the approval of Westminster before any referendum can be held. So how is that overcome?

The referendum in the North will be at the whim of the SoS.

Larbre34

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, both NI and Scotland are reliant on the approval of Westminster before any referendum can be held. So how is that overcome?

Do it anyway. Hold the damn thing anyway. It's what Boris would do.

If the Scots Nats get a thumping mandate in the SP elections, it's a go for IndyRef 2. The justification is, Westminster have already wrecked their constitutional position through Brexit.

If they win the Ref big, no one will ignore it.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I've been surprised at the rising poll numbers in favour of Welsh independence. They seem to be around the mark Scotland's numbers were at when the original referendum was called under Salmond. I'd be surprised if Wales sustains it, though. I get the sense that Wales is much closer to England psychologically and politically than Scotland, which seems to have a very different philosophy on the kind of country it wants. I think if Scotland goes, Wales would ultimately be content with a devo max type arrangement rather than follow them out the door.

Wales has a large population of English. East Wales is an extension of England having been occupied longer and would be very hard to see it tip to pro independence.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, both NI and Scotland are reliant on the approval of Westminster before any referendum can be held. So how is that overcome?

Re Scotland. They have a massive lead in the polls for some time now. Westminster cannot ignore forever or will be considered occupiers.

Deleted User wrote: »

Re Scotland. They have a massive lead in the polls for some time now. Westminster cannot ignore forever or will be considered occupiers.

They can and they will. It is a while since the Act of Union.

Capt'n Midnight

Imreoir2 wrote: »

With no-deal Brexit around the corner, I think that ship has sailed, especially after all the unfulfilled promises from the last referendum. Any promise of change if the Scots stay in the Union will not be seen as credible.

Scottish Whisky is facing US tariffs because of UK incompetence in the Airbus - Boeing tariff war.

And Scottish fishing is in the balance.

And the perception that Scotland is handling Covid better than Westminster.

What benefit will Brexit bring to Scotland ?

Sam Russell wrote: »

They can and they will. It is a while since the Act of Union.

And pro independence majority has only been recent, so never so much pressure.

As it rolls on, A likely timeline is SNP getting the mandate at the next Assembly election, then GE in 2022. Tory majority unlikely, all issues for debate then in putting together a UK Govn't.

Rolo2010

Deleted User wrote: »

Wales has a large population of English. East Wales is an extension of England having been occupied longer and would be very hard to see it tip to pro independence.

Map of English born population in Wales.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/90/Born_In_England_2011_Census_Wales.png/1155px-Born_In_England_2011_Census_Wales.png

Rolo2010 wrote: »

Map of English born population in Wales.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/90/Born_In_England_2011_Census_Wales.png/1155px-Born_In_England_2011_Census_Wales.png

Basically no chance of Welsh independence. It's hard to even make out what Welsh is.

That the pro independence percentage is so high must mean a very large percentage of cultural Welsh want out.

Possibly a better chance of Cornwall getting independence.

A Dub in Glasgo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, both NI and Scotland are reliant on the approval of Westminster before any referendum can be held. So how is that overcome?

Test it in the courts

https://twitter.com/PeoplesAS30/status/1333096587107708939