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Scottish independence

Faye McAleer

Would you be in support of a politico-economic union and formal international intergovernmental cooperation between the three Gaelic nations, (united) Ireland, (independent) Scotland and the Isle of Man similar to Benelux?

The Benelux cooperation has served as a model for the EU, and is basically an EU lite, comprising a customs union and a parliament as well as shared resources.

This could work between the three Gaelic nations and when we get reunification and the Scottish get independence, I think it is something good that should be created.

What do you think?

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Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

That is not sustainable as UK already legislates that a political generation for a referendum can be 7 years - granted that relates to Northern Ireland

The SNP used 'once in a generation' as a figure of speech to galvanise support and the Tories know it. Johnson used the same approach for the General Election last year

The IndyRef had Cameron promising extra devolution that never happened. The No side said that a yes vote would be a vote to leave the EU - but it led to Scotland leaving the EU - even though they voted to remain. The WA agreement is being treated as a power grab by Westminster.

All of these are a generational change, and it would be reasonable to ask the question again.

[Deleted User]

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If Scotland dropped defence spending to Irish levels they'd save about £3 Bn a year.

They’d also not be able to join NATO and risk alienating a large number of Scots who are proud members of the military.

Headshot

Boris the gift that keeps on giving to Scottish Independence

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54965585

Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'

It's no wonder that independence is leading in polls now.

If I was Sturgeon I get a bus and put BJ's quote on it

pixelburp

Headshot wrote: »

Boris the gift that keeps on giving to Scottish Independence

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54965585

Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'

It's no wonder that independence is leading in polls now.

If I was Sturgeon I get a bus and put BJ's quote on it

The comments section of that article makes for interesting reading: not that I would ever advocate putting stock in the chum that constitutes News outlet comments, but it's almost predominantly along the lines of "Johnson's right" and other screeds about Devolution being an apparent failure. Lots of shots fired at the SNP for having the audacity to talk of independence; I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate many of the commenters are Brexit voters...

bob mcbob

pixelburp wrote: »

The comments section of that article makes for interesting reading: not that I would ever advocate putting stock in the chum that constitutes News outlet comments, but it's almost predominantly along the lines of "Johnson's right" and other screeds about Devolution being an apparent failure. Lots of shots fired at the SNP for having the audacity to talk of independence; I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate many of the commenters are Brexit voters...

What is more realistic is the comments of some Scottish Tory MPs

And the worry among Scottish Tories is the implication that Mr Johnson's understanding of the political situation is far from complete.

His colleagues are less diplomatic in private. One veteran Scottish Tory told me: "This is dire - it's totally out of touch and reflects a Westminster-centric view of 1992, not 2020."
Another said: "The anger tonight is palpable and the worst I've ever seen towards a Tory PM."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965593

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

The comments section of that article makes for interesting reading: not that I would ever advocate putting stock in the chum that constitutes News outlet comments, but it's almost predominantly along the lines of "Johnson's right" and other screeds about Devolution being an apparent failure. Lots of shots fired at the SNP for having the audacity to talk of independence; I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate many of the commenters are Brexit voters...

The comments section on the BBC website is horrific. Over-run with Unionists. You would never know that there was ANY support for the SNP let alone independence when you read it.

bob mcbob

Things are really bad when even the Telegraph does not back him

Johnson [is] “entitled to make sweeping generalisations based on his opinions”.

[He] should not be taken seriously as [he is always] “clearly comically polemical, and could not be reasonably [taken] as a serious, empirical, in-depth [analyst] of hard factual matters”.

So the Prime minister of the UK should not reasonable be viewed as a serious in-depth analyst of hard factual matters - astounding.

A Dub in Glasgo

That will be interesting in the run up to the Scottish Parliament elections in May. You see, the Tories in Scotland hate devolution as they never get a look in but they are savvy enough to not diss the devolution settlement because even they know that the people in Scotland like it. The Tories in Scotland prefer the underhand way of diluting devolution powers and providing powers for entrapment, do not expect the Tories in Scotland to be called out on it by the media

https://twitter.com/Zarkwan/status/1328638516310519808

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

That will be interesting in the run up to the Scottish Parliament elections in May. You see, the Tories in Scotland hate devolution as they never get a look in but they are savvy enough to not diss the devolution settlement because even they know that the people in Scotland like it. The Tories in Scotland prefer the underhand way of diluting devolution powers and providing powers for entrapment, do not expect the Tories in Scotland to be called out on it by the media

https://twitter.com/Zarkwan/status/1328638516310519808

No question this is a stick the SNP should be looking to use to beat the Tories over the head with all the way to next May. As for Johnson's comments to my mind he just upped the independence vote by another percent or 2 with that. Should not be long before the yes vote crosses that 60% threshold which for me is the point of no return.

Markcheese

If fairness to boris it has been a disaster .. from boris' point of view ..they wont do as they're told and they don't vote tory much ..

Mr.Nice Guy

Johnson's comments were an own goal and a gift to the independence movement. It does, however, suggest his contempt for another referendum is not a bluff. I wonder what Tories who are genuinely troubled about Scotland leaving - the likes of Gove - are thinking right now. It seems to me current Tory thinking is self-preservation over 'Union' preservation.

If Johnson continues to dismiss a second referendum, yes, this administration will avoid being the one that 'lost' Scotland, but the likely consequence of this stubbornness is support for independence reaching even higher levels. 60%? 65%?

On the other hand, by making a last stand and giving in to another referendum, and in so doing ramping up Project Fear, might be the best way for them to keep the Union intact.

At what point do these numbers start to spook them? 58% or thereabouts looks bad, but a few more percentage points makes it start to feel like it's an inevitability.

serfboard

bob mcbob wrote: »

[He] should not be taken seriously as [he is always] “clearly comically polemical, and could not be reasonably [taken] as a serious, empirical, in-depth [analyst] of hard factual matters”.

The Trump defence - if he gets away with saying something, he clearly meant it, if he does not, it was clearly a joke.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I've moved some posts to the general British Politics thread.

Imreoir2

Both the SNP and the Scottish Greens have committed to fighting the 2021 election on a platform of holding another Independance referendum. It seems very likely that these two parties together, if not the SNP on its own, will win a majority of votes and seats in the election.

Where does that leave the UK? Will it be possible for the British government to continue to ignore calls for a second referendum in defiance of the Scottish people?

serfboard

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Will it be possible for the British government to continue to ignore calls for a second referendum in defiance of the Scottish people?

Yes.

pixelburp

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Both the SNP and the Scottish Greens have committed to fighting the 2021 election on a platform of holding another Independance referendum. It seems very likely that these two parties together, if not the SNP on its own, will win a majority of votes and seats in the election.

Where does that leave the UK? Will it be possible for the British government to continue to ignore calls for a second referendum in defiance of the Scottish people?

My own personal gut instinct says that polling needs to sit at two-thirds majority for another referendum to become too noisy to ignore - and that multiple polls rest at that point.

Like €99.99 feeling so much cheaper than €100, support sitting at the 5x% remains too precarious - too arguable - in terms of what way Scotland might swing in an actual referendum. To my mind, it offers too much plausible deniability to Westminster, notwithstanding their own automatic "once in a generation" response when asked (and beloved of Daily Mail comment sections).

Water John

Two thirds is far too steep. That means you can ignore the opinion of two out every three people almost.
A super majority would be in the region of 55 or 60%.

If the people of Scotland choose to elect a majority of representatives who favour independence, that is the outcome that has to be respected. That was the basis of Irish Independence. It certainly morally obliges Westminister to facilitate a Ref.
Johnson will ignore that as he has little morals, but in time it will happen. Possibly until after the next UK GE.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is the hypocrisy of it all. After all, the Brexit referendum was foisted on the UK by the Tories on 37% of the vote and that was announced as the will of the people

eire4

Water John wrote: »

Two thirds is far too steep. That means you can ignore the opinion of two out every three people almost.
A super majority would be in the region of 55 or 60%.

If the people of Scotland choose to elect a majority of representatives who favour independence, that is the outcome that has to be respected. That was the basis of Irish Independence. It certainly morally obliges Westminister to facilitate a Ref.
Johnson will ignore that as he has little morals, but in time it will happen. Possibly until after the next UK GE.

Already support for independence is close to 60%. IMHO once it clears 60% I think that is the key number and all the responses we currently see from London are just pushing those numbers higher. I think support for independence at 60% or more and a clear and decisive victory next May in the Scottish Assembly elections will bring the end game into clear focus.

pixelburp

Water John wrote: »

Two thirds is far too steep. That means you can ignore the opinion of two out every three people almost.
A super majority would be in the region of 55 or 60%.

If the people of Scotland choose to elect a majority of representatives who favour independence, that is the outcome that has to be respected. That was the basis of Irish Independence. It certainly morally obliges Westminister to facilitate a Ref.
Johnson will ignore that as he has little morals, but in time it will happen. Possibly until after the next UK GE.

Oh I agree, two thirds is steep but it also feels like the watermark needed to make the conversation with Westminster happen. London will fight tooth and nail for a second referendum, going doubly while polls show majority support. But while that majority support floats in the fifties I do believe it gives the wriggle room to squeeze out of it.

Mr.Nice Guy

15th poll in a row showing support for independence.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1334125816989544448

Very interested to see what effect the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations has on these polls. It seems to be around the 55-45 Yes mark at the moment. If there's no agreement reached with the EU I could see that adding a few more percentage points on to Yes.

Winters

The Brexit referendum has shown us that anything less than a qualified majority is a recipe of complete division. Id be very concerned about 56%. There are just too many transient votes in that difference.

BonnieSituation

Winters wrote: »

The Brexit referendum has shown us that anything less than a qualified majority is a recipe of complete division. Id be very concerned about 56%. There are just too many transient votes in that difference.

Just like in 2014 right?

The division from Brexit in 2016 has come from an ill-defined question and an ill-defined answer.

ancapailldorcha

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Just like in 2014 right?

The division from Brexit in 2016 has come from an ill-defined question and an ill-defined answer.

More than that though, the Scots just don't seem to have that loutish, gloating element to their political culture that the English do. After Brexit, we had the "we won, you lost, get over it" brigade posturing and gloating non-stop. I don't remember the IndyRef being anywhere near this acrimonious. I know that Holyrood is elected via PR so that might be part of the reason.

BonnieSituation

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

More than that though, the Scots just don't seem to have that loutish, gloating element to their political culture that the English do. After Brexit, we had the "we won, you lost, get over it" brigade posturing and gloating non-stop. I don't remember the IndyRef being anywhere near this acrimonious. I know that Holyrood is elected via PR so that might be part of the reason.

There was some loutishness and it was all on the NO side. But it was certainly milder than Brexit. Still a lot of "You lost get over it" types about the place.

PR has an effect, but the Scots, rather like ourselves tend to approach politics in a less adversarial way as it is. How Nordic.

Water John

Nice piece here on crime writer Val McDermid (Vera ITV);
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/val-mcdermid-there-will-be-a-united-ireland-within-five-years-1.4427448

Very pro Independence and ties it in also with Irish unification.

Markcheese

I reckon the pro- independence vote would drop fairly significantly if and when a poll drew near , as the Anti - independence horror storys get bandied about ...
Unless westminster makes a hames of things ..

Charles Babbage

Markcheese wrote: »

...
Unless westminster makes a hames of things ..

This is quite likely.

A Dub in Glasgo

Markcheese wrote: »

I reckon the pro- independence vote would drop fairly significantly if and when a poll drew near , as the Anti - independence horror storys get bandied about ...
Unless westminster makes a hames of things ..

The Edinburgh Agreement was signed in Oct 2012 and the pro-independence side were on 30%-35% in the polling and the result in the 2014 referendum was 45% for the pro-independence side. The UK threw the kitchen sink at the Yes side with all sorts of horror stories but still 45% voted for independence

Now the landscape has totally changed since 2014 and I suppose the economic reality after Brexit / COVID-19 could persuade some Yes that they would be better off sticking with the UK. It really is with the undecided and like 2014 they are more likely to keep the status quo

Markcheese

From an independence point of view brexit really has set the ground rules ... Not a binding poll ? No prob it's the will of the people ...
Only 51 % voted for change , no prob - will of the people ...
We need a second vote - nope exit means exit ..
Would the SNP be able to organize a poll against westminsters wishes , ala catalonia , I doubt the uk government would come down on it the way the the gaurdia civil did , but they couldn't "allow" it either ..