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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

7/12

Running invested total 499pts

Total P & L + 23.2pts

[Deleted User]

Re the P & L for today and yesterday.

Am unable to check account history, so not sure about NRs - what price they were, and when they were declared NRs :mad:

I had to make do with looking at the daily racecard/s (can go backwards re racecards, but not so with the betting

)to see what the tissue, or probable sp was.

In the 3.20 at Kelso yesterday (where Nakadam came placed) there were a couple of NRs - 13/2 & 10/1 on racecard.

In Gipsy Lee Rose race 1.00 Kelso (where placed) there was a NR which was 6/1 on racecard.

In Sezina's race 2.55 Southwell (where placed) there was a NR who was one of the outsiders.

On to today (above were on Sunday) in Greengage's race 4.05 Wolves (where placed) there was a NR that was 12/1 in the betting (am able to check the betting on the day of race ).

These would amount to about 1.2 pts total deductions. Am gonna call it 1.5pts.

So for sake of thread integrity I'm gonna update the P & L

Updated P & L +23.2pts

[Deleted User]

6/12

Running P & L +34.5pts

Invested 32pts

Returns:

Getaway Gerry 12.25 (done e/w at 22/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 5.5pts
Gipsy Lee Rose 1.00 (done e/w at 18/1) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 4.6pts
Nakadam 3.20 (done e/w at 25/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 6pts
Mosakhar 2.20 places at 6/1 a quarter the odds a place returning 2.5pts
Sezina 2.55 places at 6/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.2pts
Grand Pianola 3.25 (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts

Total at play 32pts - returns 23.2pts

Loss for the day 8.8pts

Running invested total 495pts

Total P & L + 25.7pts

____________________________________________

7/12

Running P & L +25.7pts

Invested 6pts. Lady Alavesa 3.55 NR (meeting abd after 1st race) @ 2pts. 4pts at stake.

Returns:

Greengage 4.05 places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Total at play 4pts - returns 3pts

Loss for the day 1pt

Running invested total 499pts

Total P & L + 24.7pts

[Deleted User]

^^^

An each way double on the first two above could turn out to be a prudent investment....

[Deleted User]

7/12

A couple I really like today, and one's a punt...

4.05 Wolves Greengage 8/1 e/w
I think 12fs at the course is ideal for this mare. She was staying on well at the course over 2 1/2fs less a couple of runs back. That was in a Class 5 - goes today in a Class 6. Drawn wide in 10 should be ideal for a hold-up performer. Is twice a course winner, and has won over today's trip before at Newcastle.

3.55 Chelmsford Lady Alavesa 22/1 e/w
Another mare, and performs best when held up. Only 8 in this race, so hopefully she won't encounter too much trouble when making a late bid for glory. Has been banging on the door the last twice she ran here (over C & D). I'm confident of a good run today at a juicy price.

Plumpton 2.05 Mon Petit Cheri 150/1 e/w hope

I was scrolling through the racecard, and "The Chase" was on, and just as I was glancing at this one a question about Tony Blair was asked by Bradders. Could be written in stars, and her trainer who is also a female has been among the winners recently, and Paige the jockey has feminine credentials also. This one is a filly, so in the same ballpark as the other two (confident) selections. Stranger things have been known to happen eh?

Gluck

Am due

[Deleted User]

Unfortunately a winner wasn't to be had today - a couple came close. Another poor day for the P & L. Will update later.

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

With thanks Leffe as I had a little e/w nibble on Gipsyleerose 9/1. Tried hard to win but just a little short of the line a little like Feyan in the last at Cork

Ta pottokblue,,

A few hit the post today, like Gipsy - but narys the winner unfortunately

Just the way it goes

pottokblue

With thanks Leffe as I had a little e/w nibble on Gipsyleerose 9/1. Tried hard to win but just a little short of the line a little like Feyan in the last at Cork

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

^^^

No prices on offer at Huntingdon ; so none posted above, alas, I'll have to wait till later to do them I suppose...

Called off I think, looks like the Huntingdon meet is abandoned

[Deleted User]

^^^

No prices on offer at Huntingdon

; so none posted above, alas, I'll have to wait till later to do them I suppose...

[Deleted User]

Been a pretty poor run lately - almost a 30pts loss from the recent just shy of 80pts staked. I guess that's to be expected when >60% of selections are in double figures, and the average price is probably 16/1, or bigger.

That being said the thread is still in profit, and hopefully we can get back on the winning thread if a few of these oblige; or hit the crossbar at a big price

6/12

Have had a look at the three meetings across the pond, and picked out a few with decent each way credentials; with a couple of punts thrown in for good measure.

All each way picks.

Kelso

11.55 Grumpy Mcgrumpface 7/1
The favourite is the one to beat I think, but not completely unopposable. Regardless, these are each way picks, and one expects to get beat by a shorter priced one most of the time. 2nd fav has a few question marks imo. Will chance the selection on his first run over hurdles - he was a non runner on Friday at Sedgefield, so maybe today presents a better opportunity.

12.25 Getaway Gerry 22/1
Has ran quite a few times over C & D without winning. He put in a couple of good runs without winning, on soft and good to soft going on two out of those approx 6 attempts. So, he would have to have a bit of a chance. Also, I am not too enthused about those towards the top of the betting.

1.00 Gipsy Lee Rose 18/1
Young and inexperienced, and looks unexposed (has only had four runs in Britain since coming over from Joseph O'Brien). Latest run at Sedgefield (after a break) reads well here in the context of today's race; when she appeared to be staying on over 4fs shorter. That said, staying is a slight concern; but that was a Class 3, and she tackles a Class 4 today with the champ Brian Hughes taking over riding duties from Lucy Alexander; who has been on board for all those 4 British rides. First time cheekpieces as well, which I mainly view as a positive selection/s wise.

1.32 Chroi Old Girl 150/1 , Our Elsie 50/1
Two punts.

2.02 Big Bad Dream 11/2
Shouldn't be far away.
Tico Times 18/1
Bit of a punt this one.

2.45 Mighty Thunder 5/1
Two chase runs - two wins. A third would be good.

3.20 Bob Mahler 6/1
Topweight. Won Class 2 Edinburgh chase over same distance at Musselburgh in February. Tackles a Class 3 today, after his four most recent outings; which were in Class 2s.
Nakadam 25/1
Should be staying on as well as any in this, the bottomweight. Don't know why his price is so big, as he won last time out over the same trip at Hexham in November.

Huntingdon

2.25 Top Notch
Last year's winner.

3.05 Rowland Ward
Third over C & D last month after absence. Has won before on soft. One of the youngest in the race, so open to improvement too I'd venture.

Southwell

1.46 De Bruyne Horse 12/1
Should be some pace in this, and can go close if he can keep tabs on those making the running. Twice a C & D winner.

2.20 Mosakhar 4/1
Has some of the best overall form in this.
Xcelente 7/1
Is capable putting up a very fast time, so on that basis Tim Easterby's three yr old will do as a second selection here; with two places on offer.

2.55 Sezina 11/2
Wasn't far behind the favourite in this last time out, when second over C & D. Is lightly raced and only 3.

3.25 Born To Reason 50/1
Bit of a punt this one.
Grand Pianola 7/1
Has a chance if he can delay his run until as late as possible in this open race, where cases can be made for a few; not least the favourite, which should be the one to beat having won his last two.

Like I said before these are selections at decent prices that can give small punters a run for their money, and in a race or two I might like the fav to win those particular races; but it's hard to find enough darts to fling when concentrating solely on finding winners, and I like to throw a load of darts

It's working so far :pac:

Gluck all, and please gaymbul responsubly :pac:

[Deleted User]

Will do 4th and 5th December now

4/12

Running P & L + 47.1pts

Invested 44pts. Deauville Society 12.35 NR @ 2pts. 42pts in play.

Returns:

Tommy's Oscar 12.00 (done e/w at 3/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 10p rule 4 returning 5.2pts
Dawson City 3.15 (done e/w at 13/2) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 2.3 pts
King of The South 3.10 (done e/w at 9/4) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 4.7pts
Tathmeen 5.15 places at 18/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 5.5pts
Crownthorpe 5.45 places at 7/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 2.7pts
Red Jasper 6.45 places at 50/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 11pts

Total at play 42pts - returns 31.4pts

Loss for the day 10.6pts

Running invested total 461pts

Total P & L + 36.5pts

________________________________________________

5/12

Running P & L +36.5pts

Invested 2pts

Returns: none

Today's loss 2pts

Running invested total 463pts

Total P & L + 34.5pts

[Deleted User]

Not much joy yesterday. Will update P & L later.

5/12

Meanwhile today HEER WE GO AGAIN in the 6.30 Wolves has a good chance here at 12/1. 4 wins under his belt over the minimum trip, and tries 6f again today. He came third over C & D 2 runs back, when drawn 9 of 11. Is drawn low today in box 2, and may try and use his early speed to make all under Darragh Keenan who takes 3lbs off. A decent each way bet imo.

[Deleted User]

4/12

Another day another rake of darts. A plus at the end of the day in the Profit column would be good.

All each way

Sedgefield

12.00 Tommy's Oscar 3/1
12.35 Deauville Society 66/1
1.05 Burnage Boy 22/1
1.40 Puppet Warrior 14/1
2.15 Foster'sisland 14/1
2.50 Iskabeg Lane 14/1

Exeter

12.25 Big Chip And Pin 16/1
2.40 Limited Reserve 6/1
3.15 Dawson City 13/2 , Bermeo 6/1

Sandown

12.45 Diable De Sivola 11/2
1.15 Ardmayle 4/1
1.50 Ballinslea Bridge 28/1
3.00 Flemcara 13/2
3.35 Miss Honey Ryder 16/1

Newcastle

3.10 King Of The South 9/4
3.45 Ascot Week 16/1
4.45 Priscilla's Wish 14/1
5.15 Tathmeen 14/1
5.45 Crownthorpe 10/3
6.45 Red Jasper 11/1
7.15 Glengarry 28/1

Gluck

[Deleted User]

3/12

Running P & L + 55.9

Invested 26pts

Returns:

Bindon Lane 3.15 Wincanton (done e/w at 18/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 4.6pts
Agent Valdez 1.37 Leicester (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a quarter the odds a place returning 8.8pts
Torrent Des Mottes 3.07 Leicester (done e/w at 16s) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 3.8pts

Total at play 26pts - returns 17.2pts

Loss for the day 8.8pts

Running invested total 419pts

Total P & L + 47.1pts

[Deleted User]

7.00 Chelmsford Sepahi 50/1 e/w

Bit of a hit and hope this one. Doesn't seem to go well over C & D. Am hoping today will be different, and that the horse can get settled out the back early on (seems to be a lot of pace in this race) from it's high draw; and hopefully will be quick out of the blocks, and if that happens this Molly Presland piloted conveyance just might go close at massive odds.. Stranger things have happened

[Deleted User]

Nothing in the 6.00 Chelmsford.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.07 Leicester Torrent Des Mottes 16/1 e/w. Another gamble, so price not great; albeit still appealing, but has a good chance in this with the assistance of 7lb claimer N Brennan on top for the first time.

3rd

Not enough hours in the day unfortunately - just seen he was 66/1 and bigger this morn :pac:

[Deleted User]

6.00 Chelmsford Verne Castle 16/1 e/w , Pop Dancer 7/2 win

Very competitive 5fs race here where anything can win. Hollie Doyle on top of Verne Castle for the first time since he won over C & D 5 runs back. Trainer M Wigham also has Deputise in the race which has seen some money from 40s into 16s. Of the two, it's Verne Castle; who's on the drift that I prefer for an each way bet (also like that Hollie's on board).

The other one I like at a nice price at around co-favourite is Tony Carroll's Pop Dancer. This one is only 3, a C & D winner, but crucially is one that can be held up, or come from off the pace; as there are a few that will try to make all, and could be vulnerable at the finish.

[Deleted User]

#Agent Valdez wins.

Was confident Broadclyst was gonna go close; and even moreso when the money came and he ended up favourite. Just as soon as he started to get into it; alas he faded tamely

#That one I put up less than 15mins before the off. I try to put em up well in advance; but what are ya gonna do if you're looking at form while watching racing? Exactly - find a few you like :pac: Especially when after a race or two the results can be checked, and thereby a more accurate going description than the one that was given the night before.

Nothing at all so far from last night's picks, so hopefully out of the four selections from the next two races a winner, or two :P :P can be had

[Deleted User]

3.07 Leicester Torrent Des Mottes 16/1 e/w. Another gamble, so price not great; albeit still appealing, but has a good chance in this with the assistance of 7lb claimer N Brennan on top for the first time.

[Deleted User]

Al Kherb was up with the pace, but faded 3 out. No joy so far

[Deleted User]

1.37 Leicester Agent Valdez at 11/2 is hopefully an e/w bet to nothing with a good round of jumping here. Leskinfere also has a chance, but was a massive price earlier, and only 8s now; so a small win on him.

[Deleted User]

1.22 MR Just had a look and I think Al Kherb has an each way chance here at 25/1

[Deleted User]

No good Kilcara - barely jumped a fence, lack of fluency cost him whatever chance he might have had.

[Deleted User]

3/12

Had a look at Wincanton, and here are tomorrow's darts:

All each way

12.45 Kilcara 9/1 . James King is one of the best jockeys in this amateur race. Selection hasn't ran under rules with much soft in the going description; so that could be a worry, or maybe a positive

1.45 Gulshanigans 25/1

2.15 Broadclyst 11/2

2.45 Beltor 13/2 , Neff 5/1

3.15 River of Intrigue 20/1 , Bindon Lane 18/1 . Last one there is a 'punt' for sure (done nothing over hurdles; 2nd run in a chase - first was a Class 2 when pulled up; this is a Class 5, and that's the straw I'm clutching at with bindon Lane) .

I expect most of them to run well, and think Broadclyst has the best chance of winning.

Gluck if yere having a punt

[Deleted User]

14% profit on points invested so far - will try and keep that north of 10% for as long as possible. Haven't looked at tomorrow's cards.

[Deleted User]

2/12

Running P & L + 63.9pts

Total invested 8pts

Returns - none

Today's loss 8pts

Running invested total 393pts

Total P & L + 55.9pts

[Deleted User]

Purple Paddy no good - not much luck at the start with the horse in front of him racing very keen. Came with a run on the rail 2 out, but that petered out tamely in the last 100yds.

[Deleted User]

Never in with a shout even with the two in the 8 0'clock. One more to go, and I hope Paddy puts up a bold showing in the last.