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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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HTCOne

All interesting points Nijmegen. Something that has my interest is how the regional airports will look after all this. We’ve seen these suffer more than DUB for obvious reasons, with Shannon only having a couple of non based Ryanair rotations a day, and Cork down to 7 flights a week. After each aviation recession in recent times, Shannon came out with less flights than it used to have even after things pick up. FR and EI have “temporarily” shut the bases, and the yanks have all pulled out of Shannon for the coming year. Even when we finally kick the virus into touch, the regionals might still be facing troubled times.

MrMusician18

L1011 wrote: »

Its not that 6% of those who got the vaccine got COVID19

Its that compared to the number infected in the control group, only 6% (well, 5.5%) of the equivalent number got infected

The actual raw numbers are 95 infections in the control group and 5 in the vaccinated group from a 30k study.

I think, maths escapes me this late in the evening and particularly since the coffee shop downstairs started closing at 3:30, that that suggests they had a fairly even split between vaccine and control group numbers. Pfizer had a vastly, vastly higher number of people getting the vaccine than in the control; something like 38k to 5k.

The problem for air travel is that its unlikely that anyone other than front line healthcare works and nursing home residents + people admitted to hospital without COVID will be getting the vaccine in the next six months. I'm in a non healthcare essential role as per even the strictest regs we had here and I'm not expecting to get it before maybe March. Next summer is not saved yet nor do I think it can be.

Once distribution starts, I think governments will have a hell of a problem containing people. I expect therefore leisure travel to come roaring back.

Business travel will be less keen to return against government advice particularly if it creates a liability for them. The economist had a really interesting article on post pandemic aviation a few months ago where it hypothesized a possible future scenario. Basically it was an all out price war by a few big players to crush weaker competition in the wake of the pandemic, leading to large price rises two-three seasons down the line.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.economist.com/the-world-if/2020/07/04/what-if-aviation-doesnt-recover-from-covid-19

Chris_5339762

I strongly suspect that "Negative PCR test <72hrs pre flight or on arrival" will be replaced with "Negative PCR test <72hrs pre flight or on arrival or valid proof of COVID-19 vaccination".

road_high

Just looking around on Flightradar24- Australia and NZ? I was under some impression they were closed completely to international travel? Tons of planes heading there to and from Asia and the Middle East!
Actually, looking in general the world of aviation arena to be still very much more going strong all around the world? Are we an outlier in terms of aviation restrictions ?

Bsal

I'd guess they are carrying mainly cargo and not so much pax.

California Dreamer

bk wrote: »

There are a number of great points with this new vaccine.
.

We could do with a non aviation vaccine in this forum as well!!

:(:rolleyes:

California Dreamer

road_high wrote: »

Just looking around on Flightradar24- Australia and NZ? I was under some impression they were closed completely to international travel? Tons of planes heading there to and from Asia and the Middle East!
Actually, looking in general the world of aviation arena to be still very much more going strong all around the world? Are we an outlier in terms of aviation restrictions ?

From speaking to family in Oz there is no shortages of anything that is imported so that would suggest that cargo flights are still getting through. There are some pax on board but the number is extremely limited and you are required to quarantine for 2 weeks (at your own expense) on arrival.

Tenger

California Dreamer wrote: »

From speaking to family in Oz there is no shortages of anything that is imported so that would suggest that cargo flights are still getting through. There are some pax on board but the number is extremely limited and you are required to quarantine for 2 weeks (at your own expense) on arrival.

In addition you cant just book a flight and arrive in. Aussie citizens must be given a window to arrive in based on quarantine capacity.
A few weeks ago I saw a statement attributed to the Aussie ambassador to Ireland saying that he had to wit 2 month before being allowed to travel back.

crisco10

Tenger wrote: »

In addition you cant just book a flight and arrive in. Aussie citizens must be given a window to arrive in based on quarantine capacity.
A few weeks ago I saw a statement attributed to the Aussie ambassador to Ireland saying that he had to wit 2 month before being allowed to travel back.

the expense isn't insignificant either. Think the 2 week quarantine hotel costs about 2.5k ! Can't imagine a lot of people signing up for that cost !

Jack1985

Pfizer in final results from late stage trial say their vaccine is 95% effective.

opinionated3

Any word on how the various MRO companies in Ireland are doing?

Jack1985 wrote: »

Pfizer in final results from late stage trial say their vaccine is 95% effective.

Also importantly 94% in over 65's and no signs of serious side effects and they are applying for authorization for it to be started to be used in the US now. All great news.

Tenzor07

Well, I reckon most on the Aviation forum know this but the chances of catching Covid on a flight is extremely low.

https://www.boeing.com/confident-travel/story.html?id=relative-risk

Nijmegen

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Well, I reckon most on the Aviation forum know this but the chances of catching Covid on a flight is extremely low.

https://www.boeing.com/confident-travel/story.html?id=relative-risk

The issue I think vexes policymakers is less mass transmission on the plane itself, though that was probably more off a concern in the early days, and mere what happens after people arrive. We have had cases here of people flying in and going to big family dinners on their way to "self isolation" and giving everyone at the dinner Covid. Didn't read about them spreading it on the plane presumably thanks to masks etc etc

This will remain an issue until the vaccine is rolled out widely worldwide

https://www.airlive.net/breaking-norwegian-air-shuttle-files-for-protection-from-creditors/

It's not looking great for Norwegian.

Locker10a

BZ wrote: »

https://www.airlive.net/breaking-norwegian-air-shuttle-files-for-protection-from-creditors/

It's not looking great for Norwegian.

This is the process Cityjet went through and survived albeit smaller, we could see the same here

[Deleted User]

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Well, I reckon most on the Aviation forum know this but the chances of catching Covid on a flight is extremely low.

https://www.boeing.com/confident-travel/story.html?id=relative-risk

Not sure it’s that black and white

https://paxex.aero/2020/10/researchers-link-59-irish-covid-cases-to-inbound-long-haul-flight/

“ Only 17% of seats were occupied during the flight and most passengers wore masks on board. Still, 13 of the 49 passengers eventually tested positive; at least nine reported to be wearing masks throughout the flight.”

“It is interesting that four of the flight cases were not seated next to any other positive case, had no contact in the transit lounge, wore face masks in-flight”

paddy19

They jump from potential infection to plausible infection without any justification from the facts.

""The incubation period for COVID-19 may be as short as 2 days,
so the potential for in-flight/airport transmission exists in this outbreak

In-flight transmission is a plausible exposure for cases in Group 1
and Group 2 given seating arrangements and onset dates."

The potential exists but the probability of an incubation period of 48 hours is extremely low,
as can be seen from the distribution data from the Wuhan study referenced.

The seating arrangements do not show any likely infection process.

This study needs to seriously peer reviewed.

Jack1985

paddy19 wrote: »

They jump from potential infection to plausible infection without any justification from the facts.

""The incubation period for COVID-19 may be as short as 2 days,
so the potential for in-flight/airport transmission exists in this outbreak

In-flight transmission is a plausible exposure for cases in Group 1
and Group 2 given seating arrangements and onset dates."

The potential exists but the probability of an incubation period of 48 hours is extremely low,
as can be seen from the distribution data from the Wuhan study referenced.

The seating arrangements do not show any likely infection process.

This study needs to seriously peer reviewed.

I'd be pretty embarrassed to have my name to attached to such an appalling report. There are so many omissions, no data on jurisdictions passengers travelled from or movements in the cabin or even highlighting (in relation to potentially inbound pax from red countries) that it could have been mitigated in some percentage by testing - those to name just a few.

See below tweet from Professor Francois Balloux, Director of the UCL Genetics Institute in response to the report:

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1321006726359982080?s=20

More very good news on the vaccine front, the Oxford vaccine has completed it's trial and is showing up to 90% efficiency *

Some extra reasons this is very good news all round:

- Non of the people who took the vaccine and still got infected got seriously sick or even moderately sick (needing hospitalisation), showing that even for those who it isn't effective for, it still helped them from getting seriously sick.

- Early evidence shows that it may also stop the onwards spread of the virus. This is important in terms of stopping the spread and herd immunity. Neither the Pfizer/Moderna trials showed this, though note those trials weren't designed to look at this, so they may well (most likely) do too. This all just adds to the positivity of these vaccines.

- Worked equally well for elderly/at risk and diverse populations.

- This is a traditional vaccine platform, unlike the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines which use new technology. This will mean it will be faster and cheaper to produce. They are planning to produce more doses then Pfizer/Moderna combined and they are licensing it to other companies to produce in other countries around the world simultaneously.

- It can be stored at normal fridge temperatures, so much easier to distribute, same as the common flu vaccine, etc.

- It is very cheap, less then €5

All of this adds up to very good news, specially for less developed nations.

The last one everyone is waiting for is the J&J vaccine which is a single dose vaccine. would make distribution even easier.

* They actually carried out two trials, two full doses and the other, one half dose, followed by a full dose. The two full doses came back 60% effective, the half dose followed by full dose came back 90% effective. This is good news as half dose approach will allow more doses to be distributed faster.

Hotblack Desiato

bk wrote: »

The two full doses came back 60% effective, the half dose followed by full dose came back 90% effective.

Seems odd, but I'm not complaining!

TRANQUILLO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55048438

You wont be allowed on a QANTAS flight without the vaccine.

The coercion begins.......

" they are a private company , they can do what they want" I hear from the cheap seats.

They were happy to take the great unwashed's money to stay afloat but they will be more discerning with who they let on board now.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...axpayer-2020-3

"my body ,my choice" right girls? ...thats what we shouted here two years ago with our fancy REPEAL jumpers on. Im sure the "anti vaxxers" (as anyone who is even remotely reticent to get this jab will be labelled) would love your support in maintaining bodily autonomy.

And finally if person A is pro vaccine and person B is anti vax and they sit beside each other on a flight there shouldn't be an issue. Person A is safe and person B does not care so everyone wins no?

Its akin to someone mandating me to wear a rain coat because they don't want to get wet. Once they have theirs on they will be dry.

L1011

The mRNA vaccines are not yet known to stop you being an asymptomatic carrier capable of infecting others so your scenario there is not valid

TRANQUILLO

L1011 wrote: »

The mRNA vaccines are not yet known to stop you being an asymptomatic carrier capable of infecting others so your scenario there is not valid

but if they are vaccinated how can I infect them ?

Whats the point of them getting the jab then?

PommieBast

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55048438

You wont be allowed on a QANTAS flight without the vaccine.

I suspect the Australian government is a factor in this announcement.

Cookiemunster

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55048438

You wont be allowed on a QANTAS flight without the vaccine.

The coercion begins.......

" they are a private company , they can do what they want" I hear from the cheap seats.

They were happy to take the great unwashed's money to stay afloat but they will be more discerning with who they let on board now.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...axpayer-2020-3

"my body ,my choice" right girls? ...thats what we shouted here two years ago with our fancy REPEAL jumpers on. Im sure the "anti vaxxers" (as anyone who is even remotely reticent to get this jab will be labelled) would love your support in maintaining bodily autonomy.

And finally if person A is pro vaccine and person B is anti vax and they sit beside each other on a flight there shouldn't be an issue. Person A is safe and person B does not care so everyone wins no?

Its akin to someone mandating me to wear a rain coat because they don't want to get wet. Once they have theirs on they will be dry.

Nobody is going to force anyone to travel with Qantas. Other carriers are available.

TRANQUILLO

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Nobody is going to force anyone to travel with Qantas. Other carriers are available.

and if they all implement it as Alan Joyce suggests will happen? What say you then?

snotboogie

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

but if they are vaccinated how can I infect them ?

Whats the point of them getting the jab then?

Maybe do a tiny bit of research on a topic before running into a thread furiously complaining about said topic

Captain_Crash

Might we see discrimination lawsuits against Qantas following this latest announcement? Kuwait were successfully sued for not allowing Jewish passengers on board. Being excluded because of ones personal choices is fairly good grounds in many jurisdictions for a successful discrimination suit I would imagine.

Lockheed

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Might we see discrimination lawsuits against Qantas following this latest announcement? Kuwait were successfully sued for not allowing Jewish passengers on board. Being excluded because of ones personal choices is fairly good grounds in many jurisdictions for a successful discrimination suit I would imagine.

How is it discrimination on Qantas' part?