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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

More of a 3 Ws joined together

I think you are seeing what you want to see tbf

So easier question. Is it higher or lower now than it was at the beginning of the year?

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Your forgetting wages are up since then and so are savings just this year alone savings went up by billions

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/wages

So are we at the max??? Can you prove it?

Just some figures. Savings and money on deposit in Irish bank accounts are at 120billion (an all time high)

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/households-have-saved-an-extra-10bn-this-year-alone-39491706.html

So people have more for a deposit.

Full time workers on 47.5k average wage

People can afford more for a mortgage

Interest rates are lower meaning your not paying back as much.

So quick calc a couple on the average wage could borrow 332.500 (3.5 times their salary) then add in the 10% deposit brings it up to 365k.

Average price of a property in Ireland was 265k in September this year.
https://www.joe.ie/news/house-prices-ireland-3-706690

Therefore I dont think we have reached the max

The average wage is not 47.5k .but you knew that

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/earningsandlabourcosts/#:~:text=Final%20data%20for%20average%20weekly,%E2%82%AC23.69%20to%20%E2%82%AC25.57.

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think you are seeing what you want to see tbf

So easier question. Is it higher or lower now than it was at the beginning of the year?

So you think the S&p performance is a mirror of our (or any ) economy
QE money has to go somewhere so it goes into assets

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

Your forgetting wages are up since then and so are savings just this year alone savings went up by billions

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/wages

So are we at the max??? Can you prove it?

Just some figures. Savings and money on deposit in Irish bank accounts are at 120billion (an all time high)

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/households-have-saved-an-extra-10bn-this-year-alone-39491706.html

So people have more for a deposit.

Full time workers on 47.5k average wage

People can afford more for a mortgage

Interest rates are lower meaning your not paying back as much.

So quick calc a couple on the average wage could borrow 332.500 (3.5 times their salary) then add in the 10% deposit brings it up to 365k.

Average price of a property in Ireland was 265k in September this year.
https://www.joe.ie/news/house-prices-ireland-3-706690

Therefore I dont think we have reached the max

Don’t forget taxes are considerably higher than 2007, and not just income taxes. Dublin topped out in late 2018 due to affordability. It can’t go higher unless wages do or foreign wealth drives it up. Outside Dublin there is room to increase prices.

JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

So you think the S&p performance is a mirror of our (or any ) economy
QE money has to go somewhere so it goes into assets

Ah, now its just our economy is it?
But feel free to check out ours and let me know if its better or worse than you predicted before. Hint, we arent doing as badly as you seem to think.

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

Ah, now its just our economy is it?
But feel free to check out ours and let me know if its better or worse than you predicted before. Hint, we arent doing as badly as you seem to think.

I am not doing badly ,thousands of others are not doing badly
Ask those in hospitality or tourism or retail (except food or online ) how they are doing ?
Ask those who are unemployed,or those on PUP ,or those on EWSS who cant get a mortgage how they are doing
Its a 2 tier economy with one tier on life support

Name me one major economy whose CB has not publicly stated that they are either in or going into a recession
i await with anticipation your answer

donnaille

JimmyVik wrote: »

What shape is this?

Boards removed the image
It was a picture of the YTD on the s&p
https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&p_500

A V shaped recovery in a US equity index really isn't painting the scenario you are trying to use it for.

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

Don’t forget taxes are considerably higher than 2007, and not just income taxes. Dublin topped out in late 2018 due to affordability. It can’t go higher unless wages do or foreign wealth drives it up. Outside Dublin there is room to increase prices.

Remember the outrageous amounts of stamp back in 2007 you don't have to deal with that when buying either today much more modest 1%

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

The average wage is not 47.5k .but you knew that

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/earningsandlabourcosts/#:~:text=Final%20data%20for%20average%20weekly,%E2%82%AC23.69%20to%20%E2%82%AC25.57.

I said average for full time

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

I said average for full time

Any idea what the median wage is ?

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-average-worker-47000-4984199-Jan2020/

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Any idea what the median wage is ?

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-average-worker-47000-4984199-Jan2020/

No but doesnt the mean and average get closer together the larger the sample size?

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

No but doesnt the mean and average get closer together the larger the sample size?

They are the same thing regardless of sample size.

It's mean/average versus median that is interesting

https://www.microeconomicsnotes.com/statistics/relationship-between-mean-median-and-mode-statistics/15151

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

No but doesnt the mean and average get closer together the larger the sample size?

I never asked about mean
I asked about median
2 different things

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

They are the same thing regardless of sample size.

It's mean/average versus median that is interesting

https://www.microeconomicsnotes.com/statistics/relationship-between-mean-median-and-mode-statistics/15151

sorry I meant the average vs median

brisan

brisan wrote: »

Any idea what the median wage is ?

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-average-worker-47000-4984199-Jan2020/

So the average was 47k and median was 38 k
More people on median than average so

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

So the average was 47k and median was 38 k
More people on median than average so

Is that 38k bringing in part time workers aswell?

Have you a link to the median I cant find it anywhere

Actually the link expresses that the data includes part time which would skew the median value downwards so its not a stat that can be accurately used at all

JimmyVik

donnaille wrote: »

A V shaped recovery in a US equity index really isn't painting the scenario you are trying to use it for.

Not actually trying to use it for anything except that someone said a v shaped recovery was impossible. So I sarcastically said what does this look like.

But back to reality.

All I know is we are not as badly off as we thought we were going to be.
Certainly as i thought we were going to be.

I thought rents would plummet, house prices would plummet and we would be in a worse state than the great financial crash.

Things havent worked out that way at all tbf.
I know there is still time, but its far more unlikely now than it was a few months ago.
I think we are on the up now.

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

Not actually trying to use it for anything except that someone said a v shaped recovery was impossible. So I sarcastically said what does this look like.

But back to reality.

All I know is we are not as badly off as we thought we were going to be.
Certainly as i thought we were going to be.

I thought rents would plummet, house prices would plummet and we would be in a worse state than the great financial crash.

Things havent worked out that way at all tbf.
I know there is still time, but its far more unlikely now than it was a few months ago.
I think we are on the up now.

It’s to early to say that we are on the up as the payment breaks have delayed the impact on the banks and we probably won’t see the true impact on the banks balance sheets till Q1 2021. I agree it could have been a lot worse and the government intervention has softened the blow but we are not out of the woods yet. Add on top the fact that companies will need to reduce costs to pay for the debt they have taken on to get through the crisis might mean that we have yet to see the true impact on unemployment and the housing market.

One final thing is that most people agree that it will not be a V shaped recovery and most likely a K shaped with the likes of Parma and IT on the up and the domestic economy on the down

Geuze

brisan wrote: »

Any idea what the median wage is ?

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-average-worker-47000-4984199-Jan2020/

I have spent much time on this issue.

(1) Mean earnings are published here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/earningsandlabourcosts/

(2) Mean and median incomes are published here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/socialconditions/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc/

NOTE: income is not the same as earnings.

(3) mean incomes of mortgage applicants are published by the Central Bank

(4) Median earnings - TRICKY - these are published by Eurostat, in the Structure of Earnings Survey (SES)

Also, what about this:

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/earnings/structuralearnings/

Mic 1972

JimmyVik wrote: »

Not actually trying to use it for anything except that someone said a v shaped recovery was impossible. So I sarcastically said what does this look like.

But back to reality.

All I know is we are not as badly off as we thought we were going to be.
Certainly as i thought we were going to be.

I thought rents would plummet, house prices would plummet and we would be in a worse state than the great financial crash.

Things havent worked out that way at all tbf.
I know there is still time, but its far more unlikely now than it was a few months ago.
I think we are on the up now.

Correct.

kravmaga

Going to throw a hand grenade into the room.

I always thought the average industrial wage was €35 k approx in Ireland.

Dwarf.Shortage

kravmaga wrote: »

Going to throw a hand grenade into the room.

I always thought the average industrial wage was €35 k approx in Ireland.

It was (€38k in 2015 I think it was), then they stopped calculating it the b**tards.

Pelezico

Lads .....how are houses selling at the moment? Is the market hard or getting softer?

katiek102010

Pelezico wrote: »

Lads .....how are houses selling at the moment? Is the market hard or getting softer?

Very little and what is available is being driven up.

Been trying to buy since summer and can't, keep getting outbid by crazy amounts eg 10-20 k increments and well over true market value

ShlugMurphy

How long do ye reckon the first time buyer grant will be around?

I'm in a real pickle. The 20/30k would be great but I can't afford a new house in the area I'm in.

I'm living a few hours away from where I'm from and not sure how long i'll stay here before moving back. Could be 2,3,4 years before I do that.

I'm single.

I am sick of renting and would like to buy at the same time though. I would probably rent out a room to half the mortgage payment. So I would probably be "gaining" if I bought 2nd hand but I would lose the first time buyer grant, which there's no guarantees will be there when the time comes.

It's tough, because if I had the job I have now, back home, I'd be laughing.

I know lads building back home and they'd be building anyways so the 30k is free money.

Pelezico

katiek102010 wrote: »

Very little and what is available is being driven up.

Been trying to buy since summer and can't, keep getting outbid by crazy amounts eg 10-20 k increments and well over true market value

What is your current thinking? Wait until spring and hope for more stock?

katiek102010

Pelezico wrote: »

What is your current thinking? Wait until spring and hope for more stock?

Thats what I'm thinking, I have been trying to bid on a place but EA is now not taking bids as they said today, it will probably go back to reciever ( repossessed property)

I'm just so frustrated ove it

ShlugMurphy

Pelezico wrote: »

What is your current thinking? Wait until spring and hope for more stock?

House prices lag, it's never instant.

We have about 30k net increase in migrants each year. I find it hard to believe we will have a net gain this year. That has to have an effect.

katiek102010

ShlugMurphy wrote: »

House prices lag, it's never instant.

We have about 30k net increase in migrants each year. I find it hard to believe we will have a net gain this year. That has to have an effect.

Sorry I'm not with it enough to fully understand what this means.

Do you mean that as there will probably be less demand on the market mid 21 due to the lack of migrants in 20, that prices may stall or come down?

ShlugMurphy

katiek102010 wrote: »

Sorry I'm not with it enough to fully understand what this means.

Do you mean that as there will probably be less demand on the market mid 21 due to the lack of migrants in 20, that prices may stall or come down?

That's what I'm thinking.

But really for prices to drop significantly there needs to be a shock. A slow drip feed of housing does nothing because the number of people bidding still vastly outnumbers the sellers.

So 10 houses come on the market tomorrow - 100 people bid against each other driving up prices. Another 10 comes on the market next month - 90 people are bidding against each other driving prices up.

Whereas if 50 houses came on the market tomorrow, those 100 people wouldn't all be chasing that tiny supply. They might be bidding against 4 or 5 others for the house but competition is much smaller.