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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Pelezico

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tourism most likely is going to come back very strong, everybody wants to take a break and start traveling again. In a year time the covid scenario will be completely different.

As for more supply/less demand, i can see you are still pushing this narrative but things are clearly going in the opposite direction

Would you come to this dump with bad weather and people coughing or head to a warm climate?

In any case, it looks like nobody will be welcome in Ireland if the covid police have their way.

Mic 1972

Pelezico wrote: »

Would you come to this dump with bad weather and people coughing or head to a warm climate?

In any case, it looks like nobody will be welcome in Ireland if the covid police have their way.

people love Ireland, ****ty weather aside
Covid is nearly over, things are going to move fast

Graham

Mod Note

some off-topic posts deleted.

Smouse156

Wanderer78 wrote: »

pretty good id say, there could very well be a large increase in the availability of credit into our economy, so win win for property and land

Slim to none given they topped out in 2018 and haven’t risen due to CBI rules. There is a limit to how overpriced they can get on ****e Irish wages

dor843088

Smouse156 wrote: »

Slim to none given they topped out in 2018 and haven’t risen due to CBI rules. There is a limit to how overpriced they can get on ****e Irish wages

I second your point about house prices but Irish wages are far from ****e.

Smouse156

dor843088 wrote: »

I second your point about house prices but Irish wages are far from ****e.

After tax they are!

PropQueries

hmmm wrote: »

The council have no capacity to build houses, and it's not like there are loads of unemployed tradespeople sitting around who can be employed by them. I don't understand this decision by DCC at all to be honest.

It looks like a vaccine might get us out of this pandemic relatively quickly. Supply is squeezed, and there are a number of potential purchasers who have built up large cash deposits. We could see the Airbnb market pick up later in the year. It's not a great place for FTBs unfortunately I think.

I’m a bit confused about how many posters are saying once tourism numbers return the AirBnB market will return to pre-Covid levels and it’s impact on the property market re-emerging.

Isn’t that all but banned in Dublin now that they require planning permission? Also, AirBnB now pass on all details to the revenue so the state bodies should know who’s offering AirBnB without planning permission?

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

im not sure what point he is trying to make.

I think it was fairly obvious and a point that has been discussed at length previously

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

one would imagine the 3m getting it are the people at 'more' risk, once they are vaccinated we can get back to normal, for the majority it isnt a serious illness.

Listening to CNN last night
Interview with Yale Professor (of HUMAN CULTURE I think)
His take was that next year is a wipe out with rolling lockdowns and social distancing still the norm until vaccine fully run out .
Yale modellers predict between 500,000 AND 1,000000 American will die
Clusters and hotspots will develop that will cause severe lockdowns
22 and 23 will see the start of economic recovery ,and the realisation of the medical,physical and mental health implications of the virus
He said long covid is a thing but no one knows what the long term effects are likely to be or their costs to the Government
24 will see the start of the upswing in the economy
He said Covid will cost the US approx 16 trillion dollars
How this plays out on the world stage and the world economy is still a bit of an unknown
How this effects the Irish economy no one knows
Tourism is dead for next year worldwide according to him

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I think it was fairly obvious and a point that has been discussed at length previously

great and so far is the point well made or not? because house prices arent supporting the sarcastic point scoring he is trying.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Listening to CNN last night
Interview with Yale Professor (of HUMAN CULTURE I think)
His take was that next year is a wipe out with rolling lockdowns and social distancing still the norm until vaccine fully run out .
Yale modellers predict between 500,000 AND 1,000000 American will die
Clusters and hotspots will develop that will cause severe lockdowns
22 and 23 will see the start of economic recovery ,and the realisation of the medical,physical and mental health implications of the virus
He said long covid is a thing but no one knows what the long term effects are likely to be or their costs to the Government
24 will see the start of the upswing in the economy
He said Covid will cost the US approx 16 trillion dollars
How this plays out on the world stage and the world economy is still a bit of an unknown
How this effects the Irish economy no one knows
Tourism is dead for next year worldwide according to him

as sure as night follows day millions of people will die next year, when we look back on it id be surprised if any more die this year and next year versus the average over the past 10-15 years to be honest.

and these experts with opinions are ten a penny, you could just as easily find someone else to tell you otherwise, depends on who you want to believe.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m a bit confused about how many posters are saying once tourism numbers return the AirBnB market will return to pre-Covid levels and it’s impact on the property market re-emerging.

Isn’t that all but banned in Dublin now that they require planning permission? Also, AirBnB now pass on all details to the revenue so the state bodies should know who’s offering AirBnB without planning permission?

The recent changes in legislation had barely begun to be enforced. While the likes of DCC were recruiting the necessary staff, it's probably fair to say there was almost no evidence of enforcement when the pandemic hit.

The return (or otherwise) of significant volume of short term lettings is likely to hinge entirely on enforcement from local authorities.

IMO enforcement has potential to have a much bigger impact in some markets than the pandemic has.

Graham

Mod Note

discussion of state provision of housing moved to this thread

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Mod Note discussion of state provision of housing moved to

The provision (or lack thereof) of state housing is critical to the direction of the housing market as a whole. It is not a separate discussion

brisan

Villa05 wrote: »

The provision (or lack thereof) of state housing is critical to the direction of the housing market as a whole. It is not a separate discussion

Agreed
More state housing frees up more rental properties which will either come on the open rental market or be sold

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

The recent changes in legislation had barely begun to be enforced. While the likes of DCC were recruiting the necessary staff, it's probably fair to say there was almost no evidence of enforcement when the pandemic hit.

The return (or otherwise) of significant volume of short term lettings is likely to hinge entirely on enforcement from local authorities.

IMO enforcement has potential to have a much bigger impact in some markets than the pandemic has.

I would agree with your last point and I think people forget that the new AirBnB rules only came into force in July 2019 and Dublin City Council only started the beefing up of hiring people specifically for the enforcement of these new rules around November 2019 i.e. just before the pandemic hit.

So DCC are ready to go with the enforcement once the tourism market does return. If the figures of c. 5,000 full homes rented out on AirBnB in Dublin pre-covid were correct, it should have a big impact post-covid if they can't return to short-term letting and re-enter the long-term rental market.

The more pressing question in my mind is why they (and the houses previously rented to students etc.) haven't been showing up in significant numbers on the Daft.ie etc. reports over the past several months.

Donald Trump

PropQueries wrote: »

The more pressing question in my mind is why they (and the houses previously rented to students etc.) haven't been showing up in significant numbers on the Daft.ie etc. reports over the past several months.

Some possible hypothetical reasons:

1) Some were being rented conventionally and then being sublet out by the official tenant under-the-counter as airbnb (possibly without the landlord knowing). As far as the owner is concerned - they are still being rented. The lease wording might not allow subletting but might not prevent short term lettings of rooms.

2) Some were from "investors" who bought property, and let it out via airbnb (or other sites such as hotels.com) without declaring it. These would be much more likely to be found out by Mr. taxman were they to have a long-term tenant there.

3) Some can't afford to rent it out for regular rent and were just holding on and hoping that the virus would just "go away" or that there would have been a vaccine by now. They might have gotten a holiday for their mortgage early on.

Cantstandsya

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

discussion of state provision of housing moved to this thread

Amazing. I can think of few things more relevant to the discussion.

j@utis

brisan wrote: »

Listening to CNN last night
Interview with Yale Professor (of HUMAN CULTURE I think)
His take was that next year is a wipe out with rolling lockdowns and social distancing still the norm until vaccine fully run out .
Yale modellers predict between 500,000 AND 1,000000 American will die
Clusters and hotspots will develop that will cause severe lockdowns
22 and 23 will see the start of economic recovery ,and the realisation of the medical,physical and mental health implications of the virus
He said long covid is a thing but no one knows what the long term effects are likely to be or their costs to the Government
24 will see the start of the upswing in the economy
He said Covid will cost the US approx 16 trillion dollars
How this plays out on the world stage and the world economy is still a bit of an unknown
How this effects the Irish economy no one knows
Tourism is dead for next year worldwide according to him

Some good points there. V-Shaped economy isn't possible, with housing prices near all time high the only way is down.

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

The provision (or lack thereof) of state housing is critical to the direction of the housing market as a whole. It is not a separate discussion

brisan wrote: »

Agreed
More state housing frees up more rental properties which will either come on the open rental market or be sold

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Amazing. I can think of few things more relevant to the discussion.

Mod Note

The provision of state housing is not going to change in the context of the Irish Property Market 2020. Hypothetical discussion of future changes has been moved to a separate thread.

If you have an issue with that you are welcome to PM me or one of the other mods.

Do not reply to this post.

fliball123

j@utis wrote: »

Some good points there. V-Shaped economy isn't possible, with housing prices near all time high the only way is down.

Emmm I think we are a good 20% below the high of 2007

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Emmm I think we are a good 20% below the high of 2007

No wage caps or 90% max mortgage back in 2007
We are at near the max when these are taken into consideration

JimmyVik

j@utis wrote: »

Some good points there. V-Shaped economy isn't possible, with housing prices near all time high the only way is down.

What shape is this?

Boards removed the image
It was a picture of the YTD on the s&p
https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&p_500

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

What shape is this?

[Removed Image]

Bit like a rollercoaster with the lockdowns .with state subsidies trying to flatten the financial curve

JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

Bit like a rollercoaster with the lockdowns .with state subsidies trying to flatten the financial curve

Is that your way of saying its a V shape

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

No wage caps or 90% max mortgage back in 2007
We are at near the max when these are taken into consideration

Your forgetting wages are up since then and so are savings just this year alone savings went up by billions

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/wages

So are we at the max??? Can you prove it?

Just some figures. Savings and money on deposit in Irish bank accounts are at 120billion (an all time high)

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/households-have-saved-an-extra-10bn-this-year-alone-39491706.html

So people have more for a deposit.

Full time workers on 47.5k average wage

People can afford more for a mortgage

Interest rates are lower meaning your not paying back as much.

So quick calc a couple on the average wage could borrow 332.500 (3.5 times their salary) then add in the 10% deposit brings it up to 365k.

Average price of a property in Ireland was 265k in September this year.
https://www.joe.ie/news/house-prices-ireland-3-706690

Therefore I dont think we have reached the max

j@utis

fliball123 wrote: »

Your forgetting wages are up since then and so are savings just this year alone savings went up by billions

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/wages

So are we at the max??? Can you prove it?

I'm wondering if covid wage subsidy/unemployment payments are included in this average wage calculation? Because banks won't lend you with covid on your payslip.

JimmyVik wrote: »

What shape is this?

Boards removed the image
It was a picture of the YTD on the s&p
https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&p_500

It's too early to say. We have to wait till probably mid 2021 to see the full covid effects.

JimmyVik

j@utis wrote: »

I'm wondering if covid wage subsidy/unemployment payments are included in this average wage calculation? Because banks won't lend you with covid on your payslip.

It's too early to say. We have to wait till probably mid 2021 to see the full covid effects.

Its not too early.
Its a classic V. I didnt hear anyone predicting we would get a V forst and then a major downturn - until we got the V.

j@utis

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Tourism most likely is going to come back very strong, everybody wants to take a break and start traveling again. <...>

I see holidaying prices shooting up because of reduced supply.

We won't be rushing to buy tickets anyway because you don't know where the next outbreak i gonna happen and you might be left stranded. We were toying about the idea to book the cruise holiday before but now we wouldn't getting on one even you pay us. I think a lot of people can be effected this way, I mean we new thinking and perception on things, what matters to us etc. We were out for a walk in the local forest recently and saw a person, from a distance, wearing a K95 mask in the middle of nowhere. I defo not seeing everything going back where it was before instantly, it'll take time and even at that thing might be slightly different.

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

Is that your way of saying its a V shape

More of a 3 Ws joined together