donnaille wrote: » Ok? I'm not disagreeing, the 90% efficacy figure could move in either direction as the trial continues, believe that is the rate at the first data read-out - so it is to be believed at this point of the trial. Point being, it's early to be calling that we are over the worst.
The share of new lending originated to borrowers aged 30 and under has declined from just under a third in 2006 to 14 per cent in H1 2019.
omicron wrote: » I've noticed 2 factors where I live (Cork commuter town) from monitoring daft/my home, the PPR etc for the last 12 mths. - Since covid, (i.e. sales since march) of all the properties I've been following (3 and 4 bed semis mostly), the average sale price recorded has been 4.8% over asking ( based on 18 properties I had an interest in). Anecdotally, from being repeatedly outbid, I reckon sales in the last 2 months that have yet to appear on the PPR may exceed this. Also larger detached properties have been going for a higher percentage over asking but I haven't followed enough of them to be worth including. - looking at old threads on the property pin from 07/08, there were several people documenting ghost estates in the area. All of the surrounding villages and smaller towns had massive numbers of almost completed or completed properties for sale. Today, those same towns and villages have 3 bed semis or terraced houses renting for 1000-1200 a month, and any building going on has been sold off the plans in advance. I do think if the economy continues to struggle and earnings drop there will be a drop as affordability falls, but there won't be a massive 20%+ crash as there isn't the oversupply there to provide it. Also the demographics have changed. Lots of people were buying in their early to mid twenties last time for fear of never 'getting on the ladder' if they didn't, which resulted in a lot smaller pool of later twenties and thirties aged people needing to buy in the following 5 years. We don't have that now, first time buyers in 2019 were on average 5 years older than in 2006.
fliball123 wrote: » What am I trying to confirm? that 2020 is different to to 2008? of course it is and the liquidity dried up from banks after the crash in 07 we had drops at the tail end of 07 and in every quarter in 08. We are now 3 and a bit quarters in the Covid crash/recession/mess and this quarter we seen a rise in prices. So I agreed there was a lull and now prices are starting to rise. I have given proof that demand is still out there and liquidity from the banks has not gone away as mortgage approval is up over 27% on this time last year. I stated here months ago I expected prices to drop by 5% if you look back so I don't know what argument your talking about.
Donald Trump wrote: » The recession and the decline of property prices were, in Ireland, a case of chicken and egg. It was exacerbated by the global credit crisis of course. But also masked by that.
TheSheriff wrote: » Are we at economic standstill tough ? In terms of hospitality, yes. But for other industries I wouldn't have thought so. Business is certainly booming from my work perspective (pharma), moreso than anytime I've previously seen in my career.
Sweet.Science wrote: » I'm finding im not being outbid on houses but the sellers just aren't accepting the bids because it hasn't worked out like they had hoped
strmin wrote: » I noticed that too. Some sellers are late for the party, but they don't sell for asking price. Two properties I was bidding on reached asking and no bids over for more than two months. One seller pulled out, another seller started showing house again. So they don't accept asking.
brisan wrote: » ... Some People have a weird attachment to their property and it’s perceived value
cnocbui wrote: » I wonder why.
brisan wrote: » A house is like any other asset
Cyrus wrote: » it's really not.
brisan wrote: » It really is when you quote the whole post and not just bits of it
Cyrus wrote: » your response only focused on the asset value, you said people have a weird attachment to their property, given its their home i dont think its weird.
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting that people are emigrating? I have figures for 2 years 2018 and 2019 and in the last 2 years preceding Covid we had 65k more people coming in to the country than leaving which would suggest there is work here. so I am merely contesting your statement people will go where the work is.
Also what we do know to date Property has not dropped Income tax has not dropped Savings are up We have to borrow 30billion between this year and next (worst case scenario) We are borrowing this 30billion at near 0% There will be a cure for Covid it will not be here indefinitely When you think of how bad it has been over the last 10/11 months the above is actually not a bad situation to be in considering how bad it could of been.
antiskeptic wrote: » There is no contesting the statement that people will go where the work is. You say people are coming here for the work afterall. What you are doing again (quite why I do not know) is projecting past and recent happenings onto the future. Do you not know the value of your investment can go down as well as up? Past immigration for work was preceded by past, past emmigration for work. The question is: what's next. Not 'whats past' I asked you why property has not dropped, suggesting that folk seeking to close for fear of lending restrictions may have something to do with that. Its a view shared by the estate agent I just used to sell a house. And a view shared by the people who bought the house and at least one other ftb-er viewer. A view shared by a mate whose wife works in mortgage lending whose iThis isn't rocket science: the banks were bitten badly on property recently. They will clam up like sphincters at the first sign of trouble Anecdote is not data but..
Browney7 wrote: » Whilst your 27% stat figure is factually correct, it's a very disingenuous stat to use. The summer period in normal times is typically busy so previous September's see a lull. This year, Covid has played havoc with timings and activity was incredibly low in the months April to June and so it's only natural that there was a catch up evident in September as the country opened up to an extent. But you're right in that banks appear to not be turning off the liquidity taps so far although their underwriting practices seem to be at the sharp end at present. If you look at July 2019 there was almost 5000 mortgages approved, in July 20 it was closer to 3500. If you compare Q3 20 to Q3 19 the drawdown volumes are down approx 30% which isn't actually bad in the circumstances. Covid has played havoc with stats due to the sudden sharp shutdown it has caused and creates dubious statistics.
brisan wrote: » So do I A house is like any other asset It’s only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it The fact that it is your home means little to any prospective buyer If you value your home at 400k and the open market only offers you 375k what is your house worth ?
fliball123 wrote: » Well it isnt disingenuous as it a comparison on year on year. Mortgage approvals in Sept 2020 are up 27% on Sept 2019 . I use this date as its the last date that there are figures for. Where did you get the Drawdown volumes from?
brisan wrote: » I said it’s perceived value not its actual value Just because you think your home is worth 400k does not mean the market will value your house at 400k It’s your home but to the market it’s a house People need to realise this when selling
antiskeptic wrote: » There is no contesting the statement that people will go where the work is. You say people are coming here for the work afterall. What you are doing again (quite why I do not know) is projecting past and recent happenings onto the future. Do you not know the value of your investment can go down as well as up? Past immigration for work was preceded by past, past emmigration for work. The question is: what's next. Not 'whats past' I asked you why property has not dropped, suggesting that folk seeking to close for fear of lending restrictions may have something to do with that. Its a view shared by the estate agent I just used to sell a house. And a view shared by the people who bought the house and at least one other ftb-er viewer. A view shared by a mate whose wife works in mortgage lending whose instruction is to button up. This isn't rocket science: the banks were bitten badly on property recently. They will clam up like sphincters at the first sign of trouble Anecdote is not data but.. Income tax has not dropped? You mean income tax receipts have not dropped? From whence this data? Savings are up? Now why would that be do you think What we project to borrow is irrelevant. What is the world economic situation going to be in a post-covid world. What damage is caused when a world economy shuts down. Can I suggest there is no precedent (bar obvious ones like GFC or world war) and that any assertion of yours as to business as usual is built on wisful thinking. I don't know either but surely the safest bet when an economy goes off the side of a cliff is to suspect the landing might not be soft?
cnocbui wrote: » Here we go again. There is an economic concept of intrinsic value, which is roughly the cost of producing something. Most people on this thread believe market value is the sole determiner of value. It is not. You can have a market value fall below intrinsic value, but not for long. This idea that market value is only determined by the buyer is a falacy. A market doesn't exist without two participants - sellers are every bit as important as buyers and they play a part in determining market value. To me, the fair market valuee of my house is 2% less than it's replacement cost. Now buyers like you can disagree with me all you like about that, but you won't be buying it if that's the case.
brisan wrote: » What are the mortgage approvals for April May June July August 2020 compared to April May June July August 2019 Why not use those figures What are the approval and drawdowns for the 10 months to end of October 2020 compared to the first 10 months of 2019 As was said Covid played havoc with normal routines Any EA will tell you Jan/ Feb and June July August are busy months November December much less so Covid has changed all that for this year It’s like saying car sales went up in a particular month when garages were shut for the previous 3/4 months All stats can can used to suit an argument Lies damm lies and statistics is a phrase that was coined for a reason Quick example 100 people in hospital with Covid That would lead you to think that Covid is in the community However what if only 30 people went into hospital with Covid and the other 70 caught it in hospital Stats on their own are at times pointless
brisan wrote: » I may not be buying but if I represent the market you will not be selling either You can value your house at whatever level you like but if the market does not agree it won’t be sold I am in my fourth home at this stage and hopefully my final one I know what my house cost , what I had to add to it to make it our home So let’s call that value X We would not sell it for X plus 100k probably not even Xplus 150k because we are where we wanted to be when we bought our first house 38 years ago Does not mean by any stretch of the imagination that someone would offer us X plus 100k if we put it on the market because while it’s that to us it’s not worth that to another buyer who has no attachment to it
cnocbui wrote: » I'm in my 3rd house. So far, I have not sold a house at below cost, quite the opposite. So if you were to put your house on the market, would you accept less than X if that's what the market said it was worth, or would you take it off the market?
brisan wrote: » Lies damm lies and statistics is a phrase that was coined for a reason Quick example 100 people in hospital with Covid That would lead you to think that Covid is in the community However what if only 30 people went into hospital with Covid and the other 70 caught it in hospital Stats on their own are at times pointless
cnocbui wrote: » e. To me, the fair market valuee of my house is 2% less than it's replacement cost. Now buyers like you can disagree with me all you like about that, but you won't be buying it if that's the case.
