fliball123 wrote: » So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ???? I dont see many experts (self interest excluded) out there telling anyone that property is going up a lot are saying to stay away as it will definitely be going down. Look I am baffled at how well property is currently holding up given the circumstances of covid but the fundamentals of supply and demand are still strong for a sellerr currently this could change tomorrow and like you I dont know if they will go up and down I deal in the here and now.
Mic 1972 wrote: » The funny thing is that prices had started to decrease before Covid, they only started to increase again after Covid began
PropQueries wrote: » Those OECD international tax reforms will probably be agreed next year. We got extremely lucky last time. Hopefully we will be as lucky in the next 6 months.
fliball123 wrote: » So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ???? I dont see many experts (self interest excluded) out there telling anyone that property is going up a lot are saying to stay away as it will definitely be going down. Look I am baffled at how well property is currently holding up given the circumstances of covid but the fundamentals of supply and demand are still strong for a seller currently but this could change tomorrow and like you I dont know if they will go up and down I deal in the here and now.
antiskeptic wrote: » Yes. But we're looking at why the here and now. With a view to that being a hollow situation (like worried folk clamouring to draw down mortgages) There is no point talking about fundmentals when those can evaporate in a heartbeat. Other countries bear recessions better than we do and folk will simply ship out to where the work is if they need to.
fliball123 wrote: » The here and now show prices increasing. Funnily enough workers have been coming here from other countries to work see now a flippant comment like that "where the work is" that's the kind of thing I have to shoot down when I see it. I have put up immigration vs emigration figures for 2018 and 2019 I think 65k nett have come in. So your telling me all the brickies and builders etc will head off even do the government are talking about building how many more houses over the next how many years? There will be work in this country for the foreseeable future for those who want it. Obviously covid has to go away but sure you wont be able to emigrate until it has.
antiskeptic wrote: » Its not covid shoving off I was thinking of. It was 'the effect on the economy of covid' shoving off. We don't know the effect yet, other than its being negative so far. What need would there be for houses if the population was emigrating? You are, again, projecting a now situation (government now plans for housing need) onto a future situation. And supposing the government incapable of changing their plans in light of a new situation. The question is what impact covid has on the economy. Everyone who is laid off or whose business has been destroyed spending like no tomorrow? No cost for supporting a global lockdown to be paid back somehow?
fliball123 wrote: » So let me get this straight a full on global pandemic that we are currently experiencing you think this is the lull in the property market ????
Cambridge English Dictionary wrote: lull: a short period of calm in which little happens:
Donald Trump wrote: » Yes. There is a lull. Transactions are down more than 40% YoY in August for example.https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/lull I'm not being smart by including the definition. I am only explaining the sense in which I am using the word. Why there is a lull is distinct to the fact that there is a lull.
fliball123 wrote: » Well not to be picky but the crash happened in 07 and in August the subprime crisis in the US got into difficulty which more or less signaled the start of when people knew the sh1t had or would hit the fan. By the end of the year property prices in Ireland had dropped by 7.3% and everyone knew prices were only going one way and that was down, know compare to today we have known about Covid since around this time last year. We had it hit Ireland in February add in we have known about Brexit for years and how much has property gone down in by in that time? Ans = feck allhttps://www.irishtimes.com/news/house-prices-fell-by-7-3-in-2007-1.818100
Donald Trump wrote: » Crash in US and crash in Ireland were completely different issues. The former was due to a buildup of junk debt being packaged and repackaged and sold via financial products using simplistic models to "justify" rating junk as high quality. There was political pressure put on banks to lend to subprime borrowers and those loans were sliced and diced and packed up and offloaded. Those dynamics were not in play in Ireland. Nobody is comparing the reason for the crash back then to the reason for the crash now. I am just simply pointing out that a lull or stagnation is not an indication that prices will increase. You appear to say that because there has been no noticeable fall up to now that they are not going to decrease. I simply pointed out that in 2008, there was a period over which prices stagnated and it preceded a fall.
Marius34 wrote: » What do you mean price stagnated in 2008? Property prices in Ireland did fall every single Quarter of 2008.
Donald Trump wrote: » 2007/2008/whatever. Whatever you want. There is no need to be that concerned about arguing over pedantics. Prices stagnated and levelled off before they fell. There was not an inverted v-shape. Prices increased, levelled off for a while, then fell.
fliball123 wrote: » And I have proven that the lull this year is due to the nature of Covid the demand is there as can be seen by the number of mortgage approvals. The lull in 08 was down to liquidity the banks hadn't a pot to p1ss in and had to cut right back on lending I also never said anything about prices falling or rising. I am contending this lull that your going on about that happened in 08 is no comparison to now therefore we cant assume that a fall in price will follow on from it
fliball123 wrote: » Well its kind of important if you comparing lulls as has been pointed out property prices pretty much started dropping at the tail end of 07 and continued even if they staggerede. In 2020 We had a small dip in the middle of the year and prices are starting to rise again same lull different results at no point between 2007 (August) to the end of 2011 did prices rise.
Marius34 wrote: » Yes, they leveled off before recession but once recession hit it started to fall. Whereas this time, when recession hit, prices stayed relatively stable.
Donald Trump wrote: » You appear to be suffering from confirmation bias. You are looking for stats to fit your pre-decided argument. I am simply saying that a lull now is, to me, not incontrovertible evidence that prices will start to increase again next year.
Mad_maxx wrote: » there was a complete lack of liquidity in the global credit system during the great recession , banks completely seized up very different this time , governments have acted quickly and there is no shortage of credit
Mad_maxx wrote: » prices peaked in the spring of 2007 , they began dropping after that but didnt begin to really fall hard until the september 2008 , like most bubbles , the last sharp shoot up to the spring 2007 peak was very short lived , between the summer of 2007 and the summer of 2009 , prices fell 40%
fliball123 wrote: » So the snapshot I am taken is after 10/11 months of a global pandemic and if reports are to believed quite possibly the worst of the pandemic (if pfizer or the other vaccine out of Russia are hitting the 90% and 92% efficacy rates are to be believed) is over. So in the future or what lies beneath is the likelyhood of a "hitting of the play button" (as you put it) there will be spending once the virus is gone and saving rates show people have money in their accounts ready to spend if they want. As I say comparing the crash to 08 is like comparing apples and a monkeys. I agree with the other poster about Jan car sales. next year the first quarter will probably be the best indicator as to where we are within the economy as a whole
thefridge2006 wrote: » What are you talking about??? what reports? the same reports that are saying that this second wave is ravaging Europe? the same report that's saying one person in France is being hospitalised with Covid every 30 seconds? that 1 in 4 deaths are from Covid ? that more people are in hospital with it now than April.....? The worst of the Pandemic is over........ lol keep your head in the sand
fliball123 wrote: » I am talking about already two different vaccine trials that have a 90% and 92% efficacy rates for Covid. Have you not been following?? google pfizer covid vaccine and have at it and your the one with your head in the sand if you have not heard about this yet. I also phrased "quite possibly" as there is still a lot of unknowns and a lot of suffering going on
donnaille wrote: » As much as I'd like to believe the efficacy rates will be similar at scale, both are far greater than anything previously achieved for a virus. Even if true, it's far too early to call the worst go the pandemic at this point.
fliball123 wrote: » I did say if reports are to be believed ?
