GAA Betting

Sultan of Bling wrote: »

You sure that wasn't 70 minutes only?

Take another look. He backed the draw.

Capt. Autumn

"Bet of the day:
Kildare vs Offaly under 35.5 @4/5.

I don't see 36 points or more scored in what will be a dog-fight on soft enough ground, with showers forecast.
Kildare should win but have not been scoring goals this year. Very efficient as always picking off well-worked points.

I'm surprised at the cut-off point. It seems too high.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck....ah ye know the rest"

Leinster SFC quarter-finals
Offaly 0-16 Kildare 0-20, O'Moore Park, 5.30pm FT

Sultan of Bling

Same As wrote:

He picked the draw @ 13/1.

Apologies, read it wrong. Thought they backed Cork.

Well picked.

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

"Bet of the day:
Kildare vs Offaly under 35.5 @4/5.

I don't see 36 points or more scored in what will be a dog-fight on soft enough ground, with showers forecast.
Kildare should win but have not been scoring goals this year. Very efficient as always picking off well-worked points.

I'm surprised at the cut-off point. It seems too high.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck....ah ye know the rest"

Leinster SFC quarter-finals
Offaly 0-16 Kildare 0-20, O'Moore Park, 5.30pm FT

Same As

Same As wrote: »

Jennings Football Selections 8/11/2020:

Kerry -5 (Cork vs Kerry)
2pts 10-11 Betfair, Paddy Power -2

Cork under 15.5 points (Cork vs Kerry)
2pts 5-6 Paddy Power +1.67

Over 2.5 goals (Roscommon vs Mayo)
2pts 6-4 Paddy Power -2

Meath -6 (Wicklow vs Meath)
4pts 8-11 +2.91 Boylesports

Jennings +0.58 today. Almost all of his outrights are bust now, also. Will update at end of the season.

Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):

Jennings Total Points Staked: 171.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: +1.79
Jennings Total Selections: 78
Jennings Total Winners: 28
%: 35.90%

Boylan Total Points Staked: 79
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.5
Boylan Total Selections: 46
Boylan Total Winners: 14
%: 30.44%

Think Offaly will cover the 10 point handicap with Down comfortably. Both teams have played Derry,Offaly beat them 0-32 to 1-12,while Down won 1-13 to 0-13. Derry led that game by 3 pts towards the end but a late goal and 3 points in injury time won it for Down.Derry were down to 14 men for a good period of the second half. Offaly are a different league to these teams in the Christy Ring and Fennelly will have a big impact from the sideline.Think the 10 points is too short would have had it 13/14 myself.

Also Kilkenny drifting out to 7/4 with boyles....would only have Galway slight favs myself ...5/6 along them lines.Never back Kilkenny myself as too involved as a supporter but do think they are value.Galways win over Wexford has been overhyped in my opinion.

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Think Offaly will cover the 10 point handicap with Down comfortably. Both teams have played Derry,Offaly beat them 0-32 to 1-12,while Down won 1-13 to 0-13. Derry led that game by 3 pts towards the end but a late goal and 3 points in injury time won it for Down.Derry were down to 14 men for a good period of the second half. Offaly are a different league to these teams in the Christy Ring and Fennelly will have a big impact from the sideline.Think the 10 points is too short would have had it 13/14 myself.

Handicap 12 now.

Galway v Kilkenny is 50/50 for me. So the cats the better value. Although it's not a game i'd put money on.

Much safer value to be had than a toss of a coin match like this.

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

Galway v Kilkenny is 50/50 for me. So the cats the better value. Although it's not a game i'd put money on.

Much safer value to be had than a toss of a coin match like this.

Yes too close to call,no draw in the hurling yet and I reckon good chance of one in the games this weekend bar Limerick and Waterford.

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Yes too close to call,no draw in the hurling yet and I reckon good chance of one in the games this weekend bar Limerick and Waterford.

Could very well be. It's not a bet i've ever done in hurling myself. Did you get Offaly -10?

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

Could very well be. It's not a bet i've ever done in hurling myself. Did you get Offaly -10?

Yes on Offaly -10,be surprised if they dont win with a bit more than 11 to spare. And a tiny trixie on 3 draws meath kildare,clare wexford and leinster final.

gaelar29

Dublin 4/6 to win All Ireland, i think that is generous and thats coming from a Donegal poster....

gaelar29 wrote: »

Dublin 4/6 to win All Ireland, i think that is generous and thats coming from a Donegal poster....

Yeah, it's pretty much printing money. You'd want to be hanging a few hundred minimum on it for it to be worth it though. If I had 600 quid lying around, I'd be all over it. Turn it into an even grand.

I am more cautious than you lads about Dublin. If you're overly confident youre only set up for a fall. To win 6 in a row we'll have to beat Meath/Kildare, Donegal (if they win Ulster) and Mayo/Galway or Cork/Tipp. Three big games.
I'm waiting for the day when things just don't go right and we come out the wrong side of a nailbiter. No Hill 16 to roar us on in a tight game, either.

After Kerry going my biggest fear is Donegal and they are well capable of beating us. 4/6 for Dublin to win that Donegal match alone would be more apt, i feel. But the bookies are taking no chances with us until we're finally beaten. Really i'd want to be getting evens for us to win the All Ireland right now to feel it's worth backing us. I don't agree with this narrative among many that it's a near certainty that Dublin will win. We only have to look at last Sunday where Kerry were 1/5 unbackable favourites to beat Cork to see what can happen.

ShamoBuc

dobman88 wrote: »

Yeah, it's pretty much printing money. You'd want to be hanging a few hundred minimum on it for it to be worth it though. If I had 600 quid lying around, I'd be all over it. Turn it into an even grand.

I understand where you are coming from but I've seen plenty of 'printing money' type bets lose down the years. I couldn't put 600 on that bet myself.

carq

Limerick -6 at 10/11 seems generous to me.
Cant see waterford living with them

Did you smash it

4/6 on Dublin is probably value but you’d need stones to put 600 euro on anything.

Kerry lost because they scored 10 points in 70 mins. The chances of Dublin ever scoring as little as 15 are negligible even given this championship will be played in winter conditions.

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

I am more cautious than you lads about Dublin. .

That's only cos you support them though so you'll always have that niggling doubt. Its why I never have and never will back Kerry. I'm too emotionally involved.

Dublin will coast to this all Ireland. Other counties are still playing catch up at the moment while the Dubs are a tried and tested finished article who are capable of managing themselves on the pitch. No other county comes close to that yet.

As I said, I dont have enough cash in reserve to gamble on a 4/6 shot but if I was on it I'd be confident in it.

ShamoBuc wrote: »

I understand where you are coming from but I've seen plenty of 'printing money' type bets lose down the years. I couldn't put 600 on that bet myself.

Fair enough. I just think it's as close to the proverbial sure thing as you're likely to see. I'm not even entertaining the notion of Dublin not winning the AI and I've been saying it since they won the 5.

ShamoBuc

dobman88 wrote: »

Fair enough. I just think it's as close to the proverbial sure thing as you're likely to see. I'm not even entertaining the notion of Dublin not winning the AI and I've been saying it since they won the 5.

A lot of people have in fairness but Kerry were 1/5 v Cork and I'm sure they thought they were a sure thing. Unfortunately from a Betting perspective, no such thing as a sure thing.

Do people not realise the amount of one point wins and replays we had to win to do the 5 in a row? I've lost count at this stage but how we managed to come the right side of so many nailbiters is a minor miracle in itself. With 10 minutes to go in all of those games you wouldn't be feeling too comfortable with a 600e bet on, believe me.

Did you smash it

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

Do people not realise the amount of one point wins and replays we had to win to do the 5 in a row? I've lost count at this stage but how we managed to come the right side of so many nailbiters is a minor miracle in itself. With 10 minutes to go in all of those games you wouldn't be feeling too comfortable with a 600e bet on, believe me.

Dublin fans like to play down their chances but ultimately Dublin are the most unbeatable team in elite sport along with the US soccer ladies team that I’m aware of. Since 2015 The only competitions that Dublin entered that they didn’t win are the 2018, 2019 and 2021 leagues when they play weakened teams and just are building for championship.

The implied probability of odds of 4/6 is a 60% likelihood. Are Dublin 60% likely to win the all Ireland, well yes if that’s what the bookies say.

But I would say the likelihood of Dublin being taken out by someone would be more of 1 in 10 day fluke so more like 90%.

Jack Mccaffrey is probably the best player in the country after Clifford so that would give me pause for thought but that would be about it. Also a COVID outbreak is a possibility which would ruin your 600 euro.

But worrying about the standard level of the opposition would not be a big threat. Dublin can only beat themselves.

Leinster semi Dubs 1/500
Leinster final 1/40
Semi v Donegal 1/4 to qualify..anyone else win Ulster 1/25
All Ireland v Mayo 1/5 outright....anyone else 1/14

Be my guesses at odds for Dubs on route to All Ireland.I myself think 4/6 is value ,I thought they be 1/2 after Sunday but all the aame dont want to lump om something that short.Value in an accum in my opinion though.