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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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440Hertz

It happens when you’ve pissed off every competent member of staff around you and they’ve all left and everyone is desperately trying to avoid being sullied with the reputation of having worked for your administration.

jam_mac_jam

serfboard wrote: »

Two commentators from very different sides of the fence (Paul Krugman in his New York Times column, and John Bolton on RTE Drivetime this evening) have made the same comment in relation to this - they are concerned that the Trumpists will foment a stab-in-the-back myth around Trump losing the election, and that this could be very dangerous territory indeed.

I genuinely think this situation is getting a bit frightening and out of hand. The continuing narrative of a stolen election, the idea that there is no smoke without fire. All the buildup of stories that are later debunked but will people know they are debunked.

I can see why people would get angry and it's starting to look worrying.

[Deleted User]

440Hertz wrote: »

It happens when you’ve pissed off every competent member of staff around you and they’ve all left and everyone is desperately trying to avoid being sullied with the reputation of having worked for your administration.

Or been sacked for disagreeing with you/having a bit of integrity.

440Hertz

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

I genuinely think this situation is getting a bit frightening and out of hand. The continuing narrative of a stolen election, the idea that there is no smoke without fire. All the buildup of stories that are later debunked but will people know they are debunked.

I can see why people would get angry and it's starting to look worrying.

The whole long interregnum period is ridiculous, although I don’t think anyone ever imagined someone so malevolent in the Oval Office.

Even Nixon is looking like a perfect gentlemen in comparison to this stuff, which just shows how far outside the norms of the presidency this has gone.

I used to think that when American presidents were talking about the great tradition of the peaceful transfer of power (it comes up in a few recent inauguration speeches) that they were being a bit ridiculous and indulging in American exceptionalism, thinking it didn’t happen anywhere else, but I’ve come to realise they were probably just trying to calm the waters in the US itself.

If you don’t get a peaceful transition of power, you’re potential looking at a civil war or a coup d’état of some sort. It seems ludicrous and extremely unlikely, but it didn’t take much more than a sequence of events to kick off every other mess that’s ever happened in Europe or elsewhere historically.

Democracy is largely a state of mind and an agreement to accept that government will be decided by the ballot box and that people will respect the outcome of a vote. Once that’s been undermined, anything is possible, as the social mores, the etiquette and culture that allow democracy to function dissolve.

The frightening bit is nobody should have to explain this in a developed, functioning and very well established democracy. It’s looking a lot more like the unstable full presidential republics that we’ve seen, particularly in Latin America - high profile cult of personality president & totally unstable government based on whims.

When you look at the list of countries using full presidential systems, the USA is one of only a very few that are traditionally stable.

The GOP need to snap out of it and call time on this mess. At this stage it’s not even about policy differences. It’s about either respecting or undermining democracy.

My view of this is what happens over the next 10 weeks could well decide the future of the USA for many years to come. It’s a choice between stable democracy or chaos.

dwayneshintzy

Given their record, why would you trust Project Veritas or anybody involved with them?

They have a proven record of fraudulent claims.

virginmediapls

Honestly, with a country that large, with that many crazy people - it's really surprising more people with fake stories have yet to come forward.

Really speaks for how secure the vote likely was.

Graham

virginmediapls wrote: »

it's really surprising more people with fake stories have yet to come forward.

Hasn't someone put up money for evidence of voter fraud?

[Deleted User]

Graham wrote: »

Hasn't someone put up money for evidence of voter fraud?

Only in Texas I think,
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/10/texas-dan-patrick/

bilbot79

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

Indeed it sounds strange when you hear it first (I first really learned about it in Bush v Gore) but there is a logic behind the electoral college.

I agree. I think the UK would really benefit for the purposes of unity. Scotland resents being run from and deprived by England due to the popular vote

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

Few posts deleted along with a few replies quoting them.

As the charter states:

Deliberately misleading posts or posters aiming to spread misinformation will be sanctioned. We do not expect posters to be experts in all areas, however, the onus is on all posters to fact check their information. If a poster is corrected, or information corrected in a thread, any poster who continues to relate misinformation as fact will be sanctioned.

Midlife

So I think it's 10 cases now thrown out of court for lack of evidence.

I'm not sure what the game is.

I think it may be just 'keep on fundraising'

It's quite clear none of this is going anywhere.

I'd imagine most republicans would like a clean break now looking likely that Trump will take half their support and head off to OANN.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Q3ED

80% of American adults think Biden won. Of the 20% who don’t, most see it as still undecided. Only 3% reckon Trump won.

harr

It’s getting dangerous over there now .. a lot of people starting to roll in behind the idea of the so called fraud.
Some very wealthy individuals are starting to fund trumps campaign to have it over turned/ full recount.
Trump also rearranging top jobs for people he knows will probably support him in any situation.
It might seem sensational to say it’s beginning to look like he is starting the process of a sort of coup ..
We won’t know for certain till the election is officially called , I also believe at this stage he should pulled off Twitter .

spacecoyote

Midlife wrote: »

I think it may be just 'keep on fundraising'

I think this is a big part. The emails that the campaign keep sending out to people had that provision in them at the bottom. Basically a chunk of any donations made to support the legal cases will actually be used to service the debt they've accumulated.

prawnsambo

Governor of Pennsylvania is a funny guy. But I'm agog to see if the Governor of Texas pays up. Seems like he should.

listermint

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Hope he does time if he made it up.

However, he's standing by his original affidavit according to O'Keefe.

We'll see.

You can't recant your story and stand by it. I'd suggest muting o Keefe from your twitter feed.

Timberrrrrrrr

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Hope he does time if he made it up.

However, he's standing by his original affidavit according to O'Keefe.

We'll see.

What was in his original affidavit? If he has recently another one what in your mind makes his original one believable?

everlast75

This is what Ingraham is broadcasting. Judge for yourself how credible this is...

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1326368563804983298?s=19

robinph

everlast75 wrote: »

This is what Ingraham is broadcasting. Judge for yourself how credible this is...

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1326368563804983298?s=19

Makes it so much easier to catch people up to no good when they wear their team uniform when doing the criminal activity.

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/415rCyvKCsL._AC_SY400_.jpg

Brussels Sprout

The overall decisive margin has dropped by 4k votes since I last looked at it (the AZ lead shrinking has more then offset the GA lead increasing).

Had those 4 states gone the other way then Trump would have won 270-268. Once again, thanks to the Electoral College, this was a razor close election:

innuendo141

everlast75 wrote: »

This is what Ingraham is broadcasting. Judge for yourself how credible this is...

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1326368563804983298?s=19

I was NOT expecting that voice. Oh Jesus tonight, that is priceless

Brussels Sprout

froog wrote: »

i wonder do republicans actually understand what would happen if trump somehow managed to steal the election. an actual civil war with no end in sight and international sanctions that would send them back to the stone age. it would be the end of the USA.

440Hertz wrote: »

What they're doing is incredibly dangerous. Even though it probably will not succeed, it's sowing the seeds of a conspiracy theory that could destabilise the US for years.

The Republicans are playing with fire. You can see by the way that this electoral fraud conspiracy has slowly gathered momentum over the past week that a lot of them were waiting to see which way the wind was blowing before jumping in to back it. They think that they can go along with it just to humour Trump and his base. I'll bet that they think that when the time comes they can put a stop to it before it gets too crazy. They're basically edging the base. That's a dangerous and reckless game to play.

paul71

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The Republicans are playing with fire. You can see by the way that this electoral fraud conspiracy has slowly gathered momentum over the past week that a lot of them were waiting to see which way the wind was blowing before jumping in to back it. They think that they can go along with it just to humour Trump and his base. I'll bet that they think that when the time comes they can put a stop to it before it gets too crazy. They're basically edging the base. That's a dangerous and reckless game to play.

The reality is what they are playing with is the succession of California and New York followed by several other states who for about 30 years have tolerated the EC.

weisses

innuendo141 wrote: »

I was NOT expecting that voice. Oh Jesus tonight, that is priceless

Odds of that worker wearing a MAGA hat ?

Quin_Dub

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The overall decisive margin has dropped by 4k votes since I last looked at it (the AZ lead shrinking has more then offset the GA lead increasing).

Had those 4 states gone the other way then Trump would have won 270-268. Once again, thanks to the Electoral College, this was a razor close election:

The Biden lead in Arizona looks like it'll end up at about 9.5k or so on current run rates.

Still way outside the limits for a recount request - It's 0.1% in Arizona which looks to be around the 3.5K range based on the volume of votes reported.

So there will likely only be 2 States that meet the requirements for a recount - Wisconsin and Georgia.

It's a 1% threshold in WI , and Biden currently leads by a little over 20,000 votes , roughly 0.7%

It's a 0.5% threshold in Georgia and Biden leads by ~14k , about 0.3%

At best they will find a few hundred erroneous ballots which may favour Trump given that Mail-ins are the more likely ones to get tossed in a recount and they favour Biden , but obviously that simply doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Ande1975

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.

The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.

Didn't want to quote the entire post but Jebus, this has terrifed the cr*p out of me.
I hope to God this doesn't happen but explains the shenanigans.

Brussels Sprout

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The Biden lead in Arizona looks like it'll end up at about 9.5k or so on current run rates.

Still way outside the limits for a recount request - It's 0.1% in Arizona which looks to be around the 3.5K range based on the volume of votes reported.

So there will likely only be 2 States that meet the requirements for a recount - Wisconsin and Georgia.

It's a 1% threshold in WI , and Biden currently leads by a little over 20,000 votes , roughly 0.7%

It's a 0.5% threshold in Georgia and Biden leads by ~14k , about 0.3%

At best they will find a few hundred erroneous ballots which may favour Trump given that Mail-ins are the more likely ones to get tossed in a recount and they favour Biden , but obviously that simply doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong. Trump hasn't a hope of overturning the election. Biden has won it clearly.

My issue is more with declarations, that in the end, it wasn't even that close an election. These typically use the fact that the Electoral College vote margin 306-232 is quite wide on paper. That gives an artificially false sense of distance though thanks to the way that the Electoral College's Wiiner Takes All allocation rules in most states can distort the raw margins.

OhHiMark

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong. Trump hasn't a hope of overturning the election. Biden has won it clearly.

My issue is more with declarations, that in the end, it wasn't even that close an election. These typically use the fact that the Electoral College vote margin 306-232 is quite wide on paper. That gives an artificially false sense of distance though thanks to the way that the Electoral College's Wiiner Takes All allocation rules in most states can distort the raw margins.

But it's a wide margin in the electoral college, and in the popular vote. By any measurement it wasn't close.

Gbear

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The overall decisive margin has dropped by 4k votes since I last looked at it (the AZ lead shrinking has more then offset the GA lead increasing).

Had those 4 states gone the other way then Trump would have won 270-268. Once again, thanks to the Electoral College, this was a razor close election:

That said, Biden's number of electoral college votes will outperform his national votes. Ultimately, beating a fascist by only 5% or so is not a good result.

Macron beat Le Pen by 33%.

Obviously it's a different system, but it shows that Trump wasn't the cause of their problems. It's a sick democracy that can put him into power, and it's still sick if it can't deliver a firmer repudiation of him after 4 years in office.

Robert2014

I think this will blow over at some point. From what I remember, in the end this is what happened with Florida. Everyone was fed up with it before it went to the Supreme Court and Gore accepted its verdict. As this drags on and there is very little evidence of fraud, more and more Americans are going to get fed up with this and eventually Republicans will have enough. Particularly if it starts to seem that people in Georgia are getting annoyed and they could lose the run-off Senate races.