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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

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[Deleted User]

airbus up by 21.5% today. I bought in just before Covid crashed the industry.

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105

This is good news. No qualifications needed.

Qualifications are needed. This data, while successful is from early stage data, and less than 100 infected (according to the expert on Rte news at one). So while the data is extremely promising, it does little to really tell us of efficacy in the long term or in large populations. All we know is that it works and is likely to be safe. How well it works for and how long it works for remain to be determined

But as I said in an earlier post, we are on the road to a vaccine and today is a good day for humanity.

[Deleted User]

No, enough of your negativity you Gloom Monger.
Pfizer is not a fly by night(sic) operation and would not issue news in which they have no confidence which Investors would rely upon when making investment decisions.
"Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised."

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

No, enough of your negativity you Gloom Monger.
Pfizer is not a fly by night(sic) operation and would not issue news in which they have no confidence which Investors would rely upon when making investment decisions.
"Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised."

Please point to what I said was wrong. It's not to be gloomy but to put a bit of realism on a PR release. The data they've released reflects the reality more than what the talking heads give on the lunchtime business shows. I have full confidence in the data, what I don't have confidence in is people inferring conclusions that are not supported by the data.

I said it was a good day, but to paint it as the end of the road for this is stretching it.

bikeman1

Does anyone envisage a type of vaccine passport to travel?

It must be a likely proposition to give comfort to the receiving country that you are less of a risk to them? How would it work in reality?

goingnowhere

bikeman1 wrote: »

Does anyone envisage a type of vaccine passport to travel?

It must be a likely proposition to give comfort to the receiving country that you are less of a risk to them? How would it work in reality?

Little yellow book...

Wait we have had this for decades already

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Qualifications are needed. This data, while successful is from early stage data, and less than 100 infected (according to the expert on Rte news at one). So while the data is extremely promising, it does little to really tell us of efficacy in the long term or in large populations. All we know is that it works and is likely to be safe. How well it works for and how long it works for remain to be determined

To be clear, the data comes from the Phase 3 trial, in which 43,538 people participated in over 6 months and 38,955 got the vaccine, the rest got a placebo.

Of those 43,538 people in the trial, only 94 people developed Covid-19 during the trial. They then looked at those 94 people and found 90% of them were people from the Placebo group, with only 9 people having gotten the vaccine (thus the 90%).

To be clear, the whole point of this type of vaccine, is that most vaccinated people shouldn't get infected with Covid19, that the vaccine protects them from it.

The fact that just 9 people out of 38,955 got Covid19 is fantastic news. Plus the news that it seems to be safe with no notable severe side effects.

BTW They are also studying if those who got the vaccine, but still got Covid19, perhaps developed less serious symptoms then they might otherwise have, something that is often seen with other vaccines. They can help turn a possibly deadly virus into just flu like symptoms for a few days.

Of course I should point out that the paper has yet to be peer reviewed. Nor do we have info on how long the vaccine lasts.

The other slight downside is that this particular vaccine needs to be stored at -80c, which will complicate distribution. Though they are researching if it will also work at normal fridge temperature.

BBTW Also cool that people here in Dublin are involved in it's creation and testing.

Overall it is really good news, much better then previously hoped.

MrMusician18

bk wrote: »

To be clear, the data comes from the Phase 3 trial, in which 43,538 people participated in over 6 months and 38,955 got the vaccine, the rest got a placebo.

Of those 43,538 people in the trial, only 94 people developed Covid-19 during the trial. They then looked at those 94 people and found 90% of them were people from the Placebo group, with only 9 people having gotten the vaccine (thus the 90%).

To be clear, the whole point of this type of vaccine, is that most vaccinated people shouldn't get infected with Covid19, that the vaccine protects them from it.

The fact that just 9 people out of 38,955 got Covid19 is fantastic news. Plus the news that it seems to be safe with no notable severe side effects.

BTW They are also studying if those who got the vaccine, but still got Covid19, perhaps developed less serious symptoms then they might otherwise have, something that is often seen with other vaccines. They can help turn a possibly deadly virus into just flu like symptoms for a few days.

Of course I should point out that the paper has yet to be peer reviewed. Nor do we have info on how long the vaccine lasts.

The other slight downside is that this particular vaccine needs to be stored at -80c, which will complicate distribution. Though they are researching if it will also work at normal fridge temperature.

BBTW Also cool that people here in Dublin are involved in it's creation and testing.

Overall it is really good news, much better then previously hoped.

Don't get me wrong, it's great news. What I'm cautioning against is getting ahead of ourselves. The PR is promising but the data is currently absent and this is an interim update.

I've noticed a tendency in online discussion today to argue a case for widespread abandonment of restrictions now because we have a vaccine. We are closer to one but we don't have one. We will see restrictions well past Christmas and into the new year but one hopes that the vaccine will prevent the third wave with normalcy resuming in Feb/March (a whole year of this ****). If you're thinking of a flight and it's at a good price now for next Summer, I'd advise to book.

I've long said here that the real challenge for aviation is the post covid market, if they can get through the current crisis. A lot of posters here seem to think that it will revert just like it was pre 2020 while I've questioned that assumption. In the immediate aftermath, aviation will be dealing with a lack of supply, an eagerness to make up lost revenue, pressures from new ways of doing business among other challenges. Policymakers will be looking at travel where once supporting connectivity was seen as essential to supporting economic growth and development. If new ways of business mean that is no longer the case will aviation still receive such support? For example I wouldn't be surprised to see an EU wide tax on aviation fuel in two/three years time at the point where aviation is showing signs of recovery in order to limit it's resurgence.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, it's great news. What I'm cautioning against is getting ahead of ourselves. The PR is promising but the data is currently absent and this is an interim update.

Again, this isn't just PR. They have released the data widely in the medical and scientific community and the FDA have all the data already.

The early reaction from the scientific community to the data is that this is looking as almost as good as you could hope for. It is also very good news for all the other vaccines under development (they all target the same spike protein).

It basically proves that Covid19 is very amendable to vaccination.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I've noticed a tendency in online discussion today to argue a case for widespread abandonment of restrictions now because we have a vaccine. We are closer to one but we don't have one. We will see restrictions well past Christmas and into the new year but one hopes that the vaccine will prevent the third wave with normalcy resuming in Feb/March (a whole year of this ****). If you're thinking of a flight and it's at a good price now for next Summer, I'd advise to book.

Oh, that is crazy! We still have a long way to go. Even if released in December/January, that will most likely only be for front long health care workers. The vast majority of us will be lucky to get it (or other vaccines) before next summer.

We are likely to still get hit by a third wave and probably will need another lock down February/March unfortunately.

But at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

MrMusician18

bk wrote: »

Again, this isn't just PR. They have released the data widely in the medical and scientific community and the FDA have all the data already.

The early reaction from the scientific community to the data is that this is looking as almost as good as you could hope for. It is also very good news for all the other vaccines under development (they all target the same spike protein).

It basically proves that Covid19 is very amendable to vaccination.

Oh, that is crazy! We still have a long way to go. Even if released in December/January, that will most likely only be for front long health care workers. The vast majority of us will be lucky to get it (or other vaccines) before next summer.

We are likely to still get hit by a third wave and probably will need another lock down February/March unfortunately.

But at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

Sorry, PR = press release. To my knowledge they haven't released the data yet and lots of questions still remain unanswered. I'm not trying to pour cold water on the progress announced today but inject a little realism.

I would hope that if it's approved by the end of this year that the most vulnerable will get it quickly, meaning a meaning a return to travel shortly after. I suspect that the yellow book or some sort of covid visa will be needed to cross most borders or isolation and testing if one refuses.

I wonder will the carrot of the foreign holiday improve uptake? Based off a poll a few weeks ago a large minority were planning to refuse the vaccines. The idea of a week in tenerife I suspect we'll change more than a few anti vaxers minds.

[Deleted User]

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I suspect that the yellow book or some sort of covid visa will be needed to cross most borders or isolation and testing if one refuses.

Antigen tests taken prior to departure instead of PCR tests will be more acceptable to Countries with any interest in keeping their economies running and not collapsing under a wall of debt because the Outlook for the vaccine is better. Only when ICU space is tight will they not have the luxury of accepting Antigen instead of PCR.
Not enough people will have been immunized soon enough to save their economies and get people flying in and out.

trellheim

Watch the travel insurance industry - they will be the best barometers of when semi-routine travel can resume.

paddy19

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Based off a poll a few weeks ago a large minority were planning to refuse the vaccines. The idea of a week in tenerife I suspect we'll change more than a few anti vaxers minds.

The poll actually stated that " 32% said they would be unlikely to take the vaccine "

It's a long distance between unlikely and refusal.

Jack1985

For a bit of perspective on demand out there, when the Canaries were added to the UK's Green list (but prior to initiated UK second lockdown), Ryanair dealt with 14-times the normal volume of demand for flights there and responded with capacity increases however the lockdown again flopped the demand.

[Deleted User]

Yes, people work out where they are permitted to go.
At present I am allowed travel anywhere within my federal state and can go over 200km south but not a few km north, east or west so this weekend I will travel south to a destination I've been putting off for years. I'll have to stay outdoors but that's fine as there is plenty of outdoors.
I'll be taking a car but the same thought process follows for those who want to get on a plane.

donkey balls

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Stansted airport terminal closing 5pm to 5am for three weeks beginning Wednesday. Major airport pulling down the shutters at 5 in the evening - wow.

The freighters will still operate in and out i assume they will have passport checks for the crews inbound.

PinOnTheRight

donkey balls wrote: »

The freighters will still operate in and out i assume they will have passport checks for the crews inbound.

Freight will continue as normal and runway/ATC will remain H24, just no terminal handling for scheduled/charter passenger flights.

It's been regularly the 2nd busiest airfield in the UK recently behind Heathrow.

opinionated3

Siptu asking the government to copy the German wage subsidy scheme for aviation workers i.e 85% support for wages for a period of time to get the various companies through the next year I would imagine. Good idea but hard to see the government agreeing to it

3d4life

opinionated3 wrote: »

... Good idea but hard to see the government agreeing to it

Could see FF and FG going for it, but the third party ?

Storm 10

That's Christmas finished for the Airlines now with Leo telling people not to book flights to come home for Christmas.

Credit Checker Moose

But will people listen to him?

I already have my flights booked.

kona

Storm 10 wrote: »

That's Christmas finished for the Airlines now with Leo telling people not to book flights to come home for Christmas.

Hed want to stop interfering in private business. You think hed have copped on.

Locker10a

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

But will people listen to him?

I already have my flights booked.

If I lived abroad and hadn’t been home all year, and had planned to come for Xmas, I’d absolutely ignore Leo and come home, I don’t live abroad but that’s how I’d feel if I did frankly. Get a test, come home, be responsible and only see limited close family.
I think of someone is planning to come home they will. I know people who already have their flights booked.

[Deleted User]

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

But will people listen to him?

I already have my flights booked.

I had my flights booked for months but Aer Lingus decided to cancel them so don't become too complacent.
A PCR test to enter Ireland is entirely unreasonable since the objective is supposedly only to suppress the virus.
At Christmas it is the traffic inward, not outward that matters.

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

I had my flights booked for months but Aer Lingus decided to cancel them so don't become too complacent.
A PCR test to enter Ireland is entirely unreasonable since the objective is supposedly only to suppress the virus.
At Christmas it is the traffic inward, not outward that matters.

Why is it unreasonable? How can you suppress the virus if it's continually seeded from abroad. Entry testing to cut quarantine lengths is something loads of posters here have been looking for.

IngazZagni

kona wrote: »

Hed want to stop interfering in private business. You think hed have copped on.

He was asked a direct question. Should he have said yeah book away sure, no problem whatsoever? He would be slated by the same amount of people on the other side of the argument.
The reality is we still don't know what levels of the virus we will have come Christmas time.

Also people need to realise that if they are coming from a red list Country it will probably make the trip unviable for many.

kona

IngazZagni wrote: »

He was asked a direct question. Should he have said yeah book away sure, no problem whatsoever? He would be slated by the same amount of people on the other side of the argument.
The reality is we still don't know what levels of the virus we will have come Christmas time.

Also people need to realise that if they are coming from a red list Country it will probably make the trip unviable for many.

He should have said they are still looking at it.:rolleyes:

billy few mates

kona wrote: »

He should have said they are still looking at it.:rolleyes:

Nobody is saying people can't come home, people are free to travel wherever they want, all that's asked of them is that they observe the public health guidelines if they do travel.

Many of those people complaining on Liveline today that Leo told them not to book their flights are the same people that would be complaining on Liveline in three weeks time that they'd already booked their flights home before the restrictions got extended, angry that they can't now do the twelve pubs of Christmas...

kona

billy few mates wrote: »

Nobody is saying people can't come home, people are free to travel wherever they want, all that's asked of them is that they observe the public health guidelines if they do travel.

Many of those people complaining on Liveline today that Leo told them not to book their flights are the same people that would be complaining on Liveline in three weeks time that they'd already booked their flights home before the restrictions got extended, angry that they can't now do the twelve pubs of Christmas...

So what? Let them book, its none of his business what people do with their money.
Hes well able to make up legislation and rules to stop it if he deems it so.

IngazZagni

kona wrote: »

He should have said they are still looking at it.:rolleyes:

That’s why he said “yet”. If you listened to the full response it would be understandable what was meant.