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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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woejus

fliball123 wrote: »

so is your son going to buy soon you have been saying for months he will be waiting for the drop??

I'm beginning to suspect there is no son, no warchest, not even a GF. This thread is bizarro-land, made bearable by highly motivated VIs spouting entertaining rubbish like clockwork.

Valentin_N

cubatahavana wrote: »

So, people are not buying cheaper properties and properties are selling at higher prices

I'm not sure I can claim anything about properties in general selling at higher prices (compared to previously). All I can observe when looking at the PPR data is that the volume of lower value property transactions has gone down in line with COVID-19, while the volume of higher value transactions has been pretty much unaffected and is on par with 2019. Draw what conclusions you want from this.

poker--addict

Valentin_N wrote: »

I'm not sure I can claim anything about properties in general selling at higher prices (compared to previously). All I can observe when looking at the PPR data is that the volume of lower value property transactions has gone down in line with COVID-19, while the volume of higher value transactions has been pretty much unaffected and is on par with 2019. Draw what conclusions you want from this.

supply

Browney7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

This is the evidence that most people are still rejecting.
Prices are still going up, and if they went up during 2020 with all that has happened, what stops them from keep going next year?

What is interesting is the uptick from August 2020. Likely to be some impact of the Covid stimulus coming through the figures for HTB for new builds where the grant changed from 5% of the property to 10%.

CSO stats are holding up also and are standardised and are the best figures we have to capture market prices. Looking at measures from raw data is susceptible to random variation (more houses than apartments, more new builds than second hand, more properties sold in Dublin and commuter counties than rest of the country for example)

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

so is your son going to buy soon you have been saying for months he will be waiting for the drop??

Donald Trump wrote: »

The vaccine that they have is 90% effective. That means 10% still susceptible even if everyone gets it- which will take a long time.

You don't foresee any effect from Brexit?

Realistically, the vaccine only needs to be given to health workers and the vulnerable initially. That is enough for a return to pre plague normality, with more widespread vaccinations following.

If as I suspect, there is a hard brexit, I would expect an increase in Dublin prices, but I admit I could be entirely wrong on that.

cubatahavana

Valentin_N wrote: »

I'm not sure I can claim anything about properties in general selling at higher prices (compared to previously). All I can observe when looking at the PPR data is that the volume of lower value property transactions has gone down in line with COVID-19, while the volume of higher value transactions has been pretty much unaffected and is on par with 2019. Draw what conclusions you want from this.

Whatever the explanation or the reasons, the data indicates that the median value of homes is increasing, and in Oct 2020, was the highest, apart from April 2020.

Average home price is on the top three Octobers since the data started, following the highest peak, in July 2020. Having said this, I think very expensive property can skew the average values, similar to comparing average incomes and median incomes

fliball123

dor843088 wrote: »

In order for house prices to increase then wages need to increase. The central bank rules have nailed the two together for good reason. There'll be no more rapid house price increases for the most part. This was true before covid and is still the case. This was the sole reason for central bank rules.

Well people may not of got a pay increase over the last 9 months but with working from home their discretionary spend is well up due to not having to travel in and out of work. I wonder if that will push them up a bit?

Reversal

cubatahavana wrote: »

Whatever the explanation or the reasons, the data indicates that the median value of homes is increasing, and in Oct 2020, was the highest, apart from April 2020.

Average home price is on the top three Octobers since the data started, following the highest peak, in July 2020. Having said this, I think very expensive property can skew the average values, similar to comparing average incomes and median incomes

Let's see what the CSO have to say later this week.

Going on the raw data you refer to for median price in Dublin, April 2020 shows a 14% YOY increase! However this is what the CSO has to say about April 2020;

In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to April

I don't think the October data should be thrown around in here with so much excitement because it shows a 5% YOY increase, when the CSO found an indicated 14% YOY increase didn't actually exist in April.

On the other side of the coin, the raw data shows close to an 8% drop in property prices in the 5 months from April to September. Are we also going to claim this as fact or wait for the CSO report on September?

cubatahavana

Reversal wrote: »

Let's see what the CSO have to say later this week.

Going on the raw data you refer to for median price in Dublin, April 2020 shows a 14% YOY increase! However this is what the CSO has to say about April 2020;

I don't think the October data should be thrown around in here with so much excitement because it shows a 5% YOY increase, when the CSO found an indicated 14% YOY increase didn't actually exist in April.

On the other side of the coin, the raw data shows close to an 8% drop in property prices in the 5 months from April to September. Are we also going to claim this as fact or wait for the CSO report on September?

I’m not saying that the CSO report is wrong, but the graphs are not for Dublín data, it is all Ireland

PommieBast

cnocbui wrote: »

If as I suspect, there is a hard brexit, I would expect an increase in Dublin prices, but I admit I could be entirely wrong on that.

The Brexit bonanza that EAs used to pump prices has not materialised. Having said that I can foresee residential and commercial property going i opposite directions.

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

Let's see what the CSO have to say later this week.

Going on the raw data you refer to for median price in Dublin, April 2020 shows a 14% YOY increase! However this is what the CSO has to say about April 2020;

I don't think the October data should be thrown around in here with so much excitement because it shows a 5% YOY increase, when the CSO found an indicated 14% YOY increase didn't actually exist in April.

On the other side of the coin, the raw data shows close to an 8% drop in property prices in the 5 months from April to September. Are we also going to claim this as fact or wait for the CSO report on September?

I should agree on this, pure Median on raw data, is not a good indicator. One offload of bigger project or sale of multiple properties, may change quite a lot Median result. Especially for single month.
And for example if apartment block of 100 apartments sells somewhere in Dublin Co. on the same month, for let say 270K each. This would increase National Median by few percents, while decrease Dublin Median quite significantly.

fliball123

PommieBast wrote: »

The Brexit bonanza that EAs used to pump prices has not materialised. Having said that I can foresee residential and commercial property going i opposite directions.

Well people have been foreseeing your opinion for a couple years now and even in a year when we have had 10 months of absolute carnage when it comes to day to day living and prices have not dropped, add in the budget no one was out of pocket tax wise and anyone not working is getting a decent wedge of cash from PUP so I cant see a drop happening now and with a vaccine on the way covid will be a thing of the past. Brexit has already happened but a lot of the measures and restrictions that are related to Brexit are still being fought over and with Biden in the white house America is likely to back the Irish point of view and try and hold Britain to their word when they agreed to Brexit a few years ago

Idbatterim

dor843088 wrote: »

In order for house prices to increase then wages need to increase. The central bank rules have nailed the two together for good reason. There'll be no more rapid house price increases for the most part. This was true before covid and is still the case. This was the sole reason for central bank rules.

yeah an excellent and obvious point. I was going to say this myself backtracking through the thread, but see it has been raised. Either people earn more, save more or get bail outs from parents etc, but it wouldnt be enough for prices to rocket, no way...

also if it looks like an effective vaccine is on the way, it will boost confidence. I think this whole borrow insane amounts was a dangerous gamble, I dont agree with it. House prices are less likely to crash in my opinion, the sooner a vaccine is distributed, BECAUSE I dont think the governments only plan of borrow insane amounts, do a huge amount of damage and borrow tens of billions, would be viable in anything but the short ish term, maybe up to a year or thereabouts. Imagine this level of damage for two years etc! LOL! LOL!

It may start more people cutting stuff out, if they are close to getting over the line with home ownership, cutting out the work lunches out, coffee, gym membership, rip off phone plans etc... There are two sides of this debate constantly, that stuff wont likely matter much in the short term, if you are on 35k a year in dublin, but say you were on 75-80k , single and trying to get together the deposit, it will ad up over a year or two. I also think the supply side is so shocking and the housing situation getting worse, that many more will just move back home to save, in fact, if they were ever going to do it, assuming their parents will have it and they can stick living with their parents, now would be an ideal time to rip off the plaster. Socially things are going to be **** for the next six months minimum any way...

fliball123

Idbatterim wrote: »

yeah an excellent and obvious point. I was going to say this myself backtracking through the thread, but see it has been raised. Either people earn more, save more or get bail outs from parents etc, but it wouldnt be enough for prices to rocket, no way...

also if it looks like an effective vaccine is on the way, it will boost confidence. I think this whole borrow insane amounts was a dangerous gamble, I dont agree with it. House prices are less likely to crash in my opinion, the sooner a vaccine is distributed, BECAUSE I dont think the governments only plan of borrow insane amounts, do a huge amount of damage and borrow tens of billions, would be viable in anything but the short ish term, maybe up to a year or thereabouts. Imagine this level of damage for two years etc! LOL! LOL!

The argument here is we are borrowing at near 0% we already had over 200 billion borrowed the projected amount for Covid for this year and next year (going on a basis that no vaccine was found) was another 30 billion. I think it was better they borrowed for this scenario to help the bog standard worker get a decent payment through the lockdown as apposed to bailing out banks and keeping public sector pay and pensions and welfare up on unreasonably high amounts. Its about time they started giving the guys (as Leo says) who get up in the morning a dig out while going through this. Hopefully now it wont cost as much as the vaccine will hopefully put an end to lockdown sometime in the new year

Idbatterim

fliball123 wrote: »

The argument here is we are borrowing at near 0% we already had over 200 billion borrowed the projected amount for Covid for this year and next year (going on a basis that no vaccine was found) was another 30 billion. I think it was better they borrowed for this scenario to help the bog standard worker get a decent payment through the lockdown as apposed to bailing out banks and keeping public sector pay and pensions and welfare up on unreasonably high amounts. Its about time they started giving the guys (as Leo says) who get up in the morning a dig out while going through this. Hopefully now it wont cost as much as the vaccine will hopefully put an end to lockdown sometime in the new year

we have such shortages of funding in some areas, disgraceful. Large national debt. For a start, putting people on E350 a week blanket payment, when put on the PUP initially, was idiocy! here is E350, whether you earned E100 a week before or E1000. That is why they have proper Pay related social in properly run european countries. Not this farce. All I heard during the recent boom was, no money for this, no money for that, important things, education, mental health, dublins non existant transport system, environmental issues and on and on and on. Covid hits! BANG, several magic money trees pop up!

Reversal

cubatahavana wrote: »

I’m not saying that the CSO report is wrong, but the graphs are not for Dublín data, it is all Ireland

I was referring to the same data filtered for Dublin. So a direct comparison.

Just to highlight the danger in referring to the raw data as there is certainly a mismatch against CSO analysis.

In Dublin, over the 8 months YOY inflation has been, on average, reported as 5% lower by the CSO when compared to the raw PPR data.

The raw data shows YOY increases in 7 of the 8 months. The CSO have recorded YOY price drops or no change in 7 of the 8 months of this year.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

Realistically, the vaccine only needs to be given to health workers and the vulnerable initially. That is enough for a return to pre plague normality, with more widespread vaccinations following.

If as I suspect, there is a hard brexit, I would expect an increase in Dublin prices, but I admit I could be entirely wrong on that.

if there is a hard brexit on top of covid ... the economy will take such a bad hit ... not sure how prices will keep growing in that scenario

cnocbui

You don't think there is any prospect of UK firms relocating to Ireland then?

pgj2015

im seeing people drop their prices on daft, myhome etc, houses dropping from say 300,000 to 275,000 or 250,000 to 230,000. do they know something we don't? will prices take a dramatic plunge next year I wonder. im in the west of Ireland by the way.

Idbatterim

pgj2015 wrote: »

im seeing people drop their prices on daft, myhome etc, houses dropping from say 300,000 to 275,000 or 250,000 to 230,000. do they know something we don't? will prices take a dramatic plunge next year I wonder.

this is the way I see it, housing is such a fundamental need, people are so screwed by it here, many saving for years, house shares etc, that the only way I see a dramatic drop, would be financial carnage again. Otherwise small increases or decreases either way, wouldnt surprise me , who knows...

Its easy to say "oh just wait till the next bust" but people are living their lives now, they may already have waited for years and are just at breaking point, exhausted after saving, maybe being in with parents, house shares. If you are buying a good long term home... you cant always just look at what if's... What I would now say, may not be a great idea, is a one bed apartment, the second bed offers a lot more options now as office, or rent a room if **** hits the fan with your job etc...

Cyrus

pgj2015 wrote: »

im seeing people drop their prices on daft, myhome etc, houses dropping from say 300,000 to 275,000 or 250,000 to 230,000. do they know something we don't? will prices take a dramatic plunge next year I wonder. im in the west of Ireland by the way.

it looks like they overegged the price and need to drop it to sell, thats what id take from it,

although im surprised these homes arent being snapped up in their dozens given everyone will be WFH for good, demand in the cities is going to plummet and we will all decamp to the west.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

You don't think there is any prospect of UK firms relocating to Ireland then?

perhaps shell operations based here but word has got out that we are so over priced here alot of uk companies have already chosen to relocate to the continent instead

we have seriosuly missed out here pricing ourselves so uncompetitively out of the market

brisan

combat14 wrote: »

perhaps shell operations based here but word has got out that we are so over priced here alot of uk companies have already chosen to relocate to the continent instead

we have seriosuly missed out here pricing ourselves so uncompetitively out of the market

My company (American multi based in Zurich with factories all over Europe) cancelled plans to shift some operations from Britain to here .
Poland and France got most of the jobs

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

My company (American multi based in Zurich with factories all over Europe) cancelled plans to shift some operations from Britain to here .
Poland and France got most of the jobs

Surprised that anyone would relocate to Grance withbtheir very strict labour laws.

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

Surprised that anyone would relocate to Grance withbtheir very strict labour laws.

Its all office based and they have multiple factories there at the minute
If you are British and offered Poland or France which would you take
Its just to service the EMEA region

pgj2015

Cyrus wrote: »

it looks like they overegged the price and need to drop it to sell, thats what id take from it,

although im surprised these homes arent being snapped up in their dozens given everyone will be WFH for good, demand in the cities is going to plummet and we will all decamp to the west.

The houses would only be up for sale 2 or 3 months, I wouldn't be dropping prices that fast but maybe they had very little inquires about them.

brisan

pgj2015 wrote: »

The houses would only be up for sale 2 or 3 months, I wouldn't be dropping prices that fast but maybe they had very little inquires about them.

If anecdotal evidence is to be believed, then if I received no bids or little interest after 3 moths on a property I had for sale I would be having words with the EA

fliball123

pgj2015 wrote: »

im seeing people drop their prices on daft, myhome etc, houses dropping from say 300,000 to 275,000 or 250,000 to 230,000. do they know something we don't? will prices take a dramatic plunge next year I wonder. im in the west of Ireland by the way.

Some houses are also going up on myhome and the majority are not moving at all last myhome report said asking prices were up by 7% (I think it was 7 but they were up) anyway its only asking price has not much bearing on the selling price

Thierry12

pgj2015 wrote: »

im seeing people drop their prices on daft, myhome etc, houses dropping from say 300,000 to 275,000 or 250,000 to 230,000. do they know something we don't? will prices take a dramatic plunge next year I wonder. im in the west of Ireland by the way.

West seems to be hit harder than East of the country in terms of Covid job losses

I've seen alot of houses reappear on daft that were sale agreed previously, can't remember that ever happening since i've been casually looking through daft, myhome etc, must be alot of companies on Covid payments or something in West

Claw Hammer

Thierry12 wrote: »

West seems to be hit harder than East of the country in terms of Covid job losses

I've seen alot of houses reappear on daft that were sale agreed previously, can't remember that ever happening since i've been casually looking through daft, myhome etc, must be alot of companies on Covid payments or something in West

The West would have a higher element of tourism in its commercial base. It would also be less likely to have essential retail and services to offset this.