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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

15 isn't bad for Maynooth, it's been a very tough market to rent in over recent years.

Student houses in particular are a tough find so they tend to be kept over the summer holidays etc just to make sure they're still available for the next academic year.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

Would love to know what your thinking?

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

Prime Dublin (950k plus) down 4% YoY. Shows that there will be a two tier market with rises in the 300k new build/HTB range and drops in the high end

High-end property prices in capital softening
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/high-end-property-prices-in-capital-softening-1.4403639

that end of the market has been falling for a few years now to be fair. there are only so many buyers for houses in that price bracket.

Smouse156

Prime Dublin (950k plus) down 4% YoY. Shows that there will be a two tier market with rises in the 300k new build/HTB range and drops in the high end

High-end property prices in capital softening
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/high-end-property-prices-in-capital-softening-1.4403639

PropQueries

lalababa wrote: »

I've seen the headlines in the media, rent increases. There's thousands of places of all types for rent in Cork City & county. Makes you think

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Not discrediting it. Specifically said it's for Q3.

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

1. It's a lag effect as it's for Q3 so landlords may have been holding out for a return to normality in October.

2. HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

3. Landlords may be keeping units empty and taking the hit this year in the hope of a return to normality in 11 months time (and it is a minimum of 11 months as Maynooth and Waterford colleges are on remote learning until then.)

4. Others?

I would go with point 2 above at the moment. So if this report is accurate, it looks like the state is the rental market now.

If you think about it rents outside of Dublin will not be going down , your the one saying more people are working from home I would hazard a guess some have moved outside of Dublin to rentals taking up rental stock. Also if you compare the amount of students that would of been coming into Dublin as apposed to every where else in the country, Dublin would be hit hardest with regard to student accommodation not being used and would more than likely be added to the rental stock (even if temporarily while covid is here) same goes with AirBnb I would say that the majority of airBnbs where in Dublin. So it kind of makes sense that Dublin is dropping due to increased Rental competition and the rest of the country staying the same or rising. Now unlike you Props I have no data (bar the fake news Daft report

) for this so anyone feel free if they have stats or anything that would prove this wrong. Its only my opinion.

lalababa

I've seen the headlines in the media, rent increases. There's thousands of places of all types for rent in Cork City & county. Makes you think

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

Students have been priced out of conventional house/apartment rentals in Maynooth for years now. Its a premium suburb of Dublin at this stage.

There is no reason that a lack of student rentals would reduce rents there.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

Increased demand, limited supply.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

well if its not telling you what you want to hear i suppose the first thing to do is try discredit it.

Not discrediting it. Specifically said it's for Q3.

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

1. It's a lag effect as it's for Q3 so landlords may have been holding out for a return to normality in October.

2. HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

3. Landlords may be keeping units empty and taking the hit this year in the hope of a return to normality in 11 months time (and it is a minimum of 11 months as Maynooth and Waterford colleges are on remote learning until then.)

4. Others?

I would go with point 2 above at the moment. So if this report is accurate, it looks like the state is the rental market now.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

well if its not telling you what you want to hear i suppose the first thing to do is try discredit it.

fago

PropQueries wrote: »

The report states that rents in Waterford City are up 5% YOY. Given that the IT has been online since the start of the academic year and students won't be returning until September 2021, how is that even possible? And that doesn't even include the AirBnB stock that should have re-entered the regular rental market.

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

Just to add. It's for Q3, so should we see big declines in e.g. Waterford City for Q4? It also appears these Daft rental reports suffer from the same lag effect as the PPR.

I think it would help if daft included the number of samples in brackets () alongside the reported percentage changes.
Certainly in the house price report outside of Dublin, one could imagine the number of samples for say 5 bed houses in Galway in a Q is low enough that one sale can skew the reported change in rate.

PropQueries

thefridge2006 wrote: »

any link to the report?

The link to the latest Daft rental report is here: https://www.daft.ie/report

It's for Q3 so it could be down to landlords hoping that the lockdown was a temporary measure during the Summer months and hoping for a return to normal in Q4.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The report states that rents in Waterford City are up 5% YOY. Given that the IT has been online since the start of the academic year and students won't be returning until September 2021, how is that even possible? And that doesn't even include the AirBnB stock that should have re-entered the regular rental market.

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

Just to add. It's for Q3, so should we see big declines in e.g. Waterford City for Q4? It also appears these Daft rental reports suffer from the same lag effect as the PPR.

Rents were always going to fall in dublin with the Air Bnbs and student accommodation coming into play for competition this year and maybe next year as well

Pete123456

thefridge2006 wrote: »

any link to the report?

Link here: https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q3-rental-daftreport.pdf

thefridge2006

any link to the report?

PropQueries

Balluba wrote: »

‘RENTS FALL IN DUBLIN - THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2011’ ———— DAFT REPORT Nov 9th 2020

The report states that rents in Waterford City are up 5% YOY. Given that the IT has been online since the start of the academic year and students won't be returning until September 2021, how is that even possible? And that doesn't even include the AirBnB stock that should have re-entered the regular rental market.

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

Just to add. It's for Q3, so should we see big declines in e.g. Waterford City for Q4? It also appears these Daft rental reports suffer from the same lag effect as the PPR.

Balluba

‘RENTS FALL IN DUBLIN - THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2011’ ———— DAFT REPORT Nov 9th 2020

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Bit of a difference between dundrum and the back end of Cork to be fair

sure but who said the house had to be in dundrum, the fact remains you can get a serious house for well under 1m, not in dundrum but we all know that.

Balluba

The Daft Report is published today

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

I also picked this at random what’s the point ?

https://www.daft.ie/12612207

Bit of a difference between dundrum and the back end of Cork to be fair

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

I wouldn't bet on it. Historic is the right word as Australia has not had more than a brief minor correction in house prices in 60 years. House prices in the main cities are up 450-600 % over the last 30 years. Even with the plague, they are still up 6.2% YOY.

According to PEXA, from the start of the year until the end of September, housing prices in NSW are down 9 per cent and in Victoria, prices were down a whopping 14 per cent. Commercial property in NSW also fared extremely poorly, with prices down 14 per cent in the first nine months of the year.

we will have to wait and see

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

interesting article on australias current and predicted house price fall

Australian housing market could see a historic crash

https://amp.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/australian-housing-market-could-see-a-historic-crash/news-story/d0f293b126f4ef1362d00124d0f06eb1

I wouldn't bet on it. Historic is the right word as Australia has not had more than a brief minor correction in house prices in 60 years. House prices in the main cities are up 450-600 % over the last 30 years. Even with the plague, they are still up 6.2% YOY.

combat14

interesting article on australias current and predicted house price fall

Australian housing market could see a historic crash

https://amp.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/australian-housing-market-could-see-a-historic-crash/news-story/d0f293b126f4ef1362d00124d0f06eb1

Graham

Mod Note

knock it off you two.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Yep. And you are? You genuinely seem to have little insight into how proper multinationals work. Unless you're working for some dodgy crowd like Savills?

Smurgen I’ve seen enough of your posts to know how little you know about anything .

I won’t bother getting into Willy waving competition with you because it wouldn’t be one.

As I said when the grown ups decide you’ll be told what’s happening.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Sure you are

Yep. And you are? You genuinely seem to have little insight into how proper multinationals work. Unless you're working for some dodgy crowd like Savills?

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Point went over your head . You wouldn't cut it in a multinational. Manager of 18 here so I'm one of the ones who gets to decide who can WFH.

Sure you are

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Point went over your head

It really didn’t , run along now good lad, haven’t you some nonsense to post in the politics forum ?

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Smurgen when the grown ups decide what’s happening and who works from where you’ll do as your told, just because you want something to happen doesn’t mean that it will.

The leaders of our largest mncs know less than you according to your logic .

Why did your company bother taking an office at all if everyone working from home is working so well?

Point went over your head

. You wouldn't cut it in a multinational. Manager of 18 here so I'm one of the ones who gets to decide who can WFH.