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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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godtabh

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Mellor

bennyl10 wrote: »

And it means trump can no longer win

No. If it finishes on 269 each (it won’t).
Trump could still win. It would go to the house which would be split 50/50 if they are followed the popular vote.

Nody

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Based of what we've seen so far the opposite could just as likely be true. After what Santorum said yesterday I have yet to hear any prominent Reps denounce Donald Trump (I have been sleeping so maybe I missed something catching up this morning). Trump has also garnered the 2nd most votes in presidential election history, which shows he obviously has a very strong base. Couple that with the fact that both Trump Jr and Eric Trump have essentially been threatening to cut support to Reps that don't take their side on their conpiracy theory.

This is tearing the Republican party apart internally I've no doubt, but I would be shocked if the GOP came out and cut ties with the Trump family just yet. At the very least, they will probably wait until all the litigation and recounts have been completed. They're in a bit of a catch 22 situation here.

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

Drumpot

Kiith wrote: »

Would love if Pennsylvania also flips before Trump wakes up and we get to see his Twitter meltdown.

Apparently there will be an update from them in the next hour or so.

This is just so enjoyable, possibly the most satisfying thing of 2020. I want to see Biden called president but equally the thought of this slow painful defeat that Trump has to suffer is making the delayed count sweet.

And the only reason it’s a slow painful defeat is because of Trump slowing down the process. This is glorious.

paul71

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

godtabh

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes.

is there any indication of when that will be or will any legal challenges have to be finished first?

Is it a likely that it will be called for Biden today but Trump will still claim victory no matter what?

seamus

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Officially, officially will be a week or two. There's a whole process after the count is finished that the state legislatures certify the final count and declare a winner.

It's typically accepted by the parties and the media as a done deal when one of the candidates concedes. Trump probably won't concede, but everyone will just ignore that.

Quin_Dub

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.

They don't actually until early January , but the States have to submit their results and be ratified by early December - The 8th I think.

That's the deadline for all of this crap - Counts , Recounts , Lawsuits etc. all have to be done and dusted by then.

The Raging Bile Duct

Nody wrote: »

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

Pence is not a traditional Rep either, he came from the Tea Party Caucus.

Shelga

I'm worried that military and cured ballots yet to be counted in Georgia will hand the lead back to Trump. I know he's probably not as popular with troops as other Republican presidents, but it's going to be so tight no?

What if we all get so excited about Biden leading Georgia, and then in a few days military ballots erase that lead

Mellor

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Officially, not until electors actually pledge their vote in December.

paul71

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They don't actually until early January , but the States have to submit their results and be ratified by early December - The 8th I think.

That's the deadline for all of this crap - Counts , Recounts , Lawsuits etc. all have to be done and dusted by then.

Sorry Quin, I did a ninja edit with a link

Tchaikovsky

Trump's twitter page has more warnings than a crate of cigarettes.

[Deleted User]

Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

Christy42

seamus wrote: »

Officially, officially will be a week or two. There's a whole process after the count is finished that the state legislatures certify the final count and declare a winner.

It's typically accepted by the parties and the media as a done deal when one of the candidates concedes. Trump probably won't concede, but everyone will just ignore that.

Wonder if some of the party honchos will shuffle Pence out to concede at some point. Course that would be the ultimate humiliation because everyone would know it was because Trump was having a hissy fit.

The Raging Bile Duct

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

Trump's twitter page has more warnings than a crate of cigarettes.

That is a brilliant line.

harr

CNN now saying Biden could take Pennsylvania by up to 100,000 votes if current trends continue. Trump up by just over 18,000 currently.

paul71

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

That is a brilliant line.

Almost as good as your user name.

Patser

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

8-10

Mellor wrote: »

No. If it finishes on 269 each (it won’t).
Trump could still win. It would go to the house which would be split 50/50 if they are followed the popular vote.

Republicans nearly certainly get the vote in that scenario of 269 tie, don't think the Dems have a chance. The Senate however might also be undecided and they vote the VP in a tie. But that would also likely end up Republican.

Spare a thought for a scenario where Republican house votes in Trump and a Democratic Senate picks a Biden/Warren/Obama/Harris as his VP for the craic

Quin_Dub

circadian wrote: »

Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

Yeah..He bailed on the Wisconsin recount once the gap moved to a margin that meant it would have cost him $3M.

He doesn't have the money for all this.

8-10

harr wrote: »

CNN now saying Biden could take Pennsylvania by up to 100,000 votes if current trends continue. Trump up by just over 18,000 currently.

In fairness that was projected to be the case yesterday. Everything is actually playing out as expected with the mail in ballots.

paul71

Patser wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

I honestly don't know. I am pretty certain he will try but I cannot see any elector going against a state vote.

Water John

Trump said last night that the vote was fraudalent in the 3 rust belt states. What he's looking for is, the vote of the people be set aside and the the State legislature nominate the electors.

KAC and Chris Christie and Pence pushed back and said count the votes.

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

I'm worried that military and cured ballots yet to be counted in Georgia will hand the lead back to Trump. I know he's probably not as popular with troops as other Republican presidents, but it's going to be so tight no?

What if we all get so excited about Biden leading Georgia, and then in a few days military ballots erase that lead

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

breezy1985

seamus wrote: »

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

Would be ironic if it was the army who stopped Trump

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Nody wrote: »

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

But the point is that the latter won't want to put up with the former, and people that vote for the traditional Reps will become disenfranchised by their blatant corruption. It's coming to a head now for the Republican Party and difficult decisions lie ahead.

paul71

seamus wrote: »

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

Yes, Spur heel vs Beau Biden.

seamus

Patser wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Will Biden have his winning speech tonight?