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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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alchemist33

https://6abc.com/7689932/

A report that Philadelphia police stopped some guys in a Hummer who planned to attack the Philadelphia count centre. Early days yet, but might be a bad omen unless the counts finish quickly

bennyl10

Multiple reports that Biden has taken the lead in Georgia

seamus

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd guess it's a week away until it's finalised.
I'm thinking of personnel at the bases in Northern Greenland, Antarctica, Afghanistan etc who left it until Tuesday to vote. The logistics would suggest it might take a while to get their vote to the voting centre in the correct state.

For some reason the 12th is in my head for the date that there'll be a final official declaration. There aren't really enough military personnel to make a difference any road, and their votes divided out across all the states.

There's no point in expecting any concession speech from Trump, so the election is "over" when everyone is certain that Trump can't win. At best we'll have a toy-throwing, "You can't fire me, I quit" tantrum from Trump, but he'll never admit defeat.

Who'd have thought Georgia would be so seriously in play. PA as well there's 18,000 between them and 200,000 votes left to count.

306 electoral votes would close off all possible avenues for legal challenge.

donfers

bennyl10 wrote: »

Multiple reports that Biden has taken the lead in Georgia

in tears here...it's over

seamus

alchemist33 wrote: »

https://6abc.com/7689932/

A report that Philadelphia police stopped some guys in a Hummer who planned to attack the Philadelphia count centre. Early days yet, but might be a bad omen unless the counts finish quickly

I expect there are a number of security top brass who are waiting for a final nod that Biden has won it before they go down hard on Trump supporters. The secret service have sent out extra security personnel to Biden.
But commanders will be afraid to take action against Trump supporters until they know for certain that Trump's time is up.

It's going to be a rocky few weeks in the US, the hate and violence that Trump has been fanning for the last four years has been waiting for a moment like this.

I said it weeks ago that the US was on the verge of a civil war, and I think that risk has never been higher than it is right now.

seamus

donfers wrote: »

in tears here...it's over

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324643210283593728

And still counting. Once Biden's lead is > 1,000 votes, there's no chance any recount can change the outcome.

I'm still too wary to call it over....but I'll stick the champagne on ice.

Kiith

So Georgia would get Biden to 269, assuming this stay the same?

bennyl10

Kiith wrote: »

So Georgia would get Biden to 269, assuming this stay the same?

And it means trump can no longer win

For Forks Sake

Would be delightful if it's the votes from John Lewis's former district that put Biden over the top

seamus

Kiith wrote: »

So Georgia would get Biden to 269, assuming this stay the same?

Yep. Which basically means that the best Trump could hope for is to win everything else and tie on 269.

In that scenario, I think the House or the Senate appoint the President.

But really, if Georgia went to Biden, then PA will too. Of what's left, North Carolina is the only one likely to go to Trump now.

jasonb

Yep, Georgia has flipped blue on the AP map!

And I didn't even miss it during the night!

hirondelle

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Alaska senate candidate saying not to rule him out just yet...interesting:

https://twitter.com/DrAlGrossAK/status/1324520257885773824

He is some lad! He is the most Alaskanist an Alaskan could be.

How would an independent senator work out if the Dems flip the two potential GA seats? I mean in term of the overall balance of power.

As an aside altogether, as a 52 year old, one thing this election cycle has done for me is to hugely increase my understanding of, and bewilderment by, the U.S.
The massive divide between the two sides- including the Dems yet again failing to listen to the people rust belt etc. to win back bluecollar trust, as well as the American Carnage of Trumpism on the other side is the bewilderment.
The understanding is more of the place, the geography and how the thing like the three arms of government are meant to work.

My latest funfact to learn is that Michigan has the longest freshwater coastline of any state/country in the world.

So now.

StringerBell

Did the school run, came to work, had a quick meeting at 9 until now.

Logged on to cnn and see that Biden has taken the lead in Georgia and the sun is shining.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

jasonb wrote: »

Yep, Georgia has flipped blue on the AP map! And I didn't even miss it during the night!

Missed it by about 15 mins:mad:

L1011

hirondelle wrote: »

As an aside altogether, as a 52 year old, one thing this election cycle has done for me is to hugely increase my understanding of, and bewilderment by, the U.S.

There are two existing Independent Senators, both sit with the Democrats and are basically always considered to be Democrat when it comes to the raw headcounts.

This lad could sit with the Republicans, the Democrats or not at all if he gets in - up to him. I presume he's not that Republican if he's running against them though.

paul71

hirondelle wrote: »

He is some lad! He is the most Alaskanist an Alaskan could be.

How would an independent senator work out if the Dems flip the two potential GA seats? I mean in term of the overall balance of power.

As an aside altogether, as a 52 year old, one thing this election cycle has done for me is to hugely increase my understanding of, and bewilderment by, the U.S.
The massive divide between the two sides- including the Dems yet again failing to listen to the people rust belt etc. to win back bluecollar trust, as well as the American Carnage of Trumpism on the other side is the bewilderment.
The understanding is more of the place, the geography and how the thing like the three arms of government are meant to work.

My latest funfact to learn is that Michigan has the longest freshwater coastline of any state/country in the world.

So now.

You should visit the great lakes sometime, they are extraordinary. Its amazing to see cargo ships as big as anything in Dublin port disappearing over the horizon on the way to Canada and then think that they are on fresh water.

Hurrache

jasonb wrote: »

Yep, Georgia has flipped blue on the AP map! And I didn't even miss it during the night!

LOL, the first think I do the last couple of mornings when I wake is roll over and flick on the news to see what I missed. The last 2 mornings nothing changed from when I went to sleep as some dumb hour. Was really surprised this morning though that nothing changed.

seamus

All eyes on the US senate now. If the democrats manage to get an equal number of seats (they need to flip just one I think), then the democrats will effectively take control as the VP gets a casting vote.

[Deleted User]

East coast fully turning Blue.

Maryland went from swing state to Solid Blue in 1992, Virginia in 2008, NC became a Swing state from solid red in 2008. Even if it stays red this time, it is now firmly a Swing state. Georgia, a firm red state, is now a swing state, likely going blue this time. Even South Carolina is trending towards the middle, even though still firmly red. Only Florida is bucking the trend, by moving from swing to leans red. This election, 12 of the 13 original colonies will have voted blue

elefant

seamus wrote: »

All eyes on the US senate now. If the democrats manage to get an equal number of seats (they need to flip just one I think), then the democrats will effectively take control as the VP gets a casting vote.

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

paul71

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

seamus

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

They will.

If PA flips today, then the GOP will abandon Trump. The senior figures will make statements to the press about respecting the democratic process and how they will keep working for the American people. They won't bankroll any of these ridiculous lawsuits, they won't demand recounts, they won't support Trump's claims of fraud or victory.

Trump will realise that everyone he has surrounded himself with are not loyal friends or supporters. They are merely sycophants and opportunists. Once Trump has lost, his power over them is gone. Some will hang around to continue leeching money from him, but the rest will hitch themselves to something else that isn't a sinking ship.

The long-proposed situation where Pence would take over and pardon Trump may not even come to pass. There's nothing in it for Pence. I'd say Pence absolutely hates Trump with a passion. I dislike Pence, but I imagine this "man of principle" thing is something core to him, and to have spent four years in the company of someone with zero principles has probably been killing him.

The GOP could even see this as an opportunity to throw Trump under the bus completely - get him and his family in federal court on all sorts of charges - to prevent the contagion continuing beyond January.

elefant

paul71 wrote: »

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

Yeah, I agree. At the same time, who knows what Trump is going to come out with next- there's nothing to gain from being hitched to his madness any more, only damage.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

Based of what we've seen so far the opposite could just as likely be true. After what Santorum said yesterday I have yet to hear any prominent Reps denounce Donald Trump (I have been sleeping so maybe I missed something catching up this morning). Trump has also garnered the 2nd most votes in presidential election history, which shows he obviously has a very strong base. Couple that with the fact that both Trump Jr and Eric Trump have essentially been threatening to cut support to Reps that don't take their side on their conpiracy theory.

This is tearing the Republican party apart internally I've no doubt, but I would be shocked if the GOP came out and cut ties with the Trump family just yet. At the very least, they will probably wait until all the litigation and recounts have been completed. They're in a bit of a catch 22 situation here.

Quin_Dub

paul71 wrote: »

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

I'd agree - Oddly enough , it's actually probably bad news for the Democrats that both seats are up.

I'd have fancied their chances in taking the Loeffler seat on it's own as she has gone a bit mad lately on the whole QAnon stuff etc.

But with voters coming out for both GOP candidates , it insulates her from that stuff a little as if you are a Perdue voter , you aren't going to split your vote and go for Warnock in the other race.

As it stands today , I think the GOP probably sneak both of those seats.

Brussels Sprout

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

paul71

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

Its the middle of the night there and they were counting for 14 hours yesterday, TBF the slowest counting states are actually New York and California, but nobody is paying any attention because they became unwinnable for Trump on first count.

donfers

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

Every vote is being checked by 59 people though

Kiith

Would love if Pennsylvania also flips before Trump wakes up and we get to see his Twitter meltdown.

Apparently there will be an update from them in the next hour or so.

Tired Gardener

Absolutely wonderful to see Georgia switch to favouring Biden.

From the start of this I had the creeping fear that ztrump would do it again. Looking at the results as they stand now, fills me with a reassuring hope... however even that is tinged with a small nuget of worry.

The fall out from this could be the spark that sets Trumps volatile supporters over the edge. The USA could see the dawning of the second civil war.