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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Dillonb3

Next set of counts from Arizona and Nevada may edge towards Trump the remaining are going to favor Biden from Dem leaning areas

https://twitter.com/NiallStanage/status/1324386820008906752

Hurrache

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

Most of Fox News US ads are for medical products too .
Its a very strange scenario .
Both demographics must be elderly unhealthy people.

It's just ads in general in America, particularly daytime ads, across the networks.

thebaz

Nody wrote: »

Quick math using the percentages would put Biden failing by 629 votes (he gains 12206 on Trump vs. being down 12835) and that's before Forsyth is taken into account; will be a recount either way I'm guessing.

very tight - could go either way - think aPennysalvia will decide, if Biden wins here will send out a message , same as Georgia, rather than if he scrapes home in Nevada.

Water John

Just winning the 270 by one close state is not ideal. Best if Biden wins the four races, then Trump cannot launch multiple cases in various states with any credibility.

Brussels Sprout

This, in Texas, pretty much sums up what happened nationwide in this election:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

murpho999

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I hope but I am expecting to be disappointed.

No, that's what those percentages are. Results of normal votes.

Postal ballots will be different.

Either way it won't matter as he's going to win PA and that will be enough.

Nody

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

This, in Texas, pretty much sums up what happened nationwide in this election:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

I think the fact they came with in 600k votes of flipping Texas should really scare republicans. If they lose Texas that's the election over pretty much (38 votes) and the trend in the voting behavior has gone against them for quite a while now and don't look like it's likely to change any time soon.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Summary of CNN take on GA
12,835 diff.

47,000 votes to be counted - all mail-in votes.

Chatham - 17,000 votes remaining. Biden at 58%
Fulton - 7,000 votes remaining. Biden at 73%
Cobb - 700 votes remaining. Biden at 56%
Gwenette - 4,800 votes remaining. Biden at 59%
Forsyth - No figure given by CNN. Biden at 32%
Clayton - 6,000 votes remaining. Biden at 85%

Biden needs 63-65%
Trump needs 34-36%

FWIW I did a few sums completely based off my own opinion on what Biden might get from mail-in; I reckon he'll win by about 5,000.
Useless stat, just an opinion which is conservatively based off what Biden has been doing nationwide with mail-ins. I'd be quietly confident in winning GA if I was Biden.

jasonb

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Ads for schizophrenia medication where a woman is talking to her friend about her mental health problems. The friend recommends some medication. The woman listens to the friend and buys the medication. The friend disappears. The friend was just a voice in her head.

Same ad, every break the other night on some us news channel. Bizzare

Haven't seen the Ad, thankfully, but if she goes and buys that medication without seeing her Doctor that also says a lot about the country!

Mr.Nice Guy

Analysts seem pretty confident about Nevada.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324449985195376651

everlast75

Well, this is nothing to worry about *clenches teeth*

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324454065326026753?s=19

jasonb

PA Secretary of State has said there's approx. 500k ballots left and the vast majority could be counted by the end of the day their time.

paul71

Leaving aside the states still not decided, between New York, New Jersey and California there are still 10 million uncounted votes. They will come down heavily in favour of Biden. The popular vote is currently at 2.6 million in favour of Biden, that is going to increase dramatically.

jasonb

everlast75 wrote: »

Well, this is nothing to worry about *clenches teeth*

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324454065326026753?s=19

I assume the whole Cabinet resign when the ruling party are voted out of power? In fact, if the West Wing has thought me anything, they even resign if the incumbent President wins, to save him the embarrassment of having to fire any that he doesn't want in his new cabinet.

BlitzKrieg

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1324452644170158086

Oh an expected trump county in Georgia went the other way in mail ballots. Could be a sign that a flip is on the way

eire4

paul71 wrote: »

Leaving aside the states still not decided, between New York, New Jersey and California there are still 10 million uncounted votes. They will come down heavily in favour of Biden. The popular vote is currently at 2.6 million in favour of Biden, that is going to increase dramatically.

No question his final margin of victory in the actual national vote will end up being pretty solid I would say north of 5%.

Headshot

Philadelphia County have 85k to 90k uncounted mail in votes left

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

85,000-90,000 in Philly. Biden at 80% there.
Trump's lead will be blown up from Philly alone.

paul71

eire4 wrote: »

No question his final margin of victory in the actual national vote will end up being pretty solid I would say north of 5%.

Thats why I mentioned it, the polls were saying 7% or 8%, I think it will be 6%. The issue nationally is not the polls, it is the broken electoral college system. The method used in Maine and Nebraska are the quick fix way of correcting that broken system.

devnull

Christ, this Arizona Press conference from the Republicans is pretty crazy.

'Fox News Sucks' How quickly they turn! I forgot what Arizona accent sounded like!

Itssoeasy

everlast75 wrote: »

Well, this is nothing to worry about *clenches teeth*

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324454065326026753?s=19

And he’s also working with Congress to strip military bases that have confederate generals names of those names. I’d say the atmosphere in the White House the last few days has been something shocking. I know joe Biden has not won yet and it’s still possible however slim for Donald trump to win re-election but the trends aren’t moving enough in trumps favour where he needs to go.

Itssoeasy

jasonb wrote: »

I assume the whole Cabinet resign when the ruling party are voted out of power? In fact, if the West Wing has thought me anything, they even resign if the incumbent President wins, to save him the embarrassment of having to fire any that he doesn't want in his new cabinet.

Well if trump loses then they’d have to resign but not till January 20th at midday and even then there’s someone in charge of all the departments until a new cabinet secretary is appointed.

eire4

paul71 wrote: »

Thats why I mentioned it, the polls were saying 7% or 8%, I think it will be 6%. The issue nationally is not the polls, it is the broken electoral college system. The method used in Maine and Nebraska are the quick fix way of correcting that broken system.

Yes I think your likely to be very close with 6% I can see that easily being the final margin when all the votes cast are counted. Totally agree with you on the electoral college system. That is a total joke. Anti-democratic and needs to be done away with. But given the Republicans are now at best a quasi democratic party they will fight tooth and nail to keep it as it is one of the tools they are currently using to stop democracy in the US so they can cling to power.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Forsyth have about 123,000 votes counted and 95% done.
That leaves about 6,000 votes left there.

Interesting interesting. Who is leading there?

Edit: nevermind, it’s upthread.

jasonb

Trump's lead in PA goes under 100k, now 98k.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

On a side note, those corona virus numbers are desperate and you'd imagine in about 2 weeks there will be a bit of a spike from these elections.

Itssoeasy

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

On a side note, those corona virus numbers are desperate and you'd imagine in about 2 weeks there will be a bit of a spike from these elections.

They are awful. Well any polling pictures I saw of people standing outside and within the voting places everyone was wearing masks. So hopefully there won’t be spikes because of the in person voting. You’d hope anyway.

Itssoeasy

Here’s joe Biden.

Itssoeasy

Envy of the world ? Well about that.

An Ciarraioch

jasonb wrote: »

Trump's lead in PA goes under 100k, now 98k.

Apparently 340,000 mail ballots remaining, and as Biden has been getting around 72% of those, he'll easily take the lead.