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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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paul71

eire4 wrote: »

No question his final margin of victory in the actual national vote will end up being pretty solid I would say north of 5%.

Thats why I mentioned it, the polls were saying 7% or 8%, I think it will be 6%. The issue nationally is not the polls, it is the broken electoral college system. The method used in Maine and Nebraska are the quick fix way of correcting that broken system.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

85,000-90,000 in Philly. Biden at 80% there.
Trump's lead will be blown up from Philly alone.

Headshot

Philadelphia County have 85k to 90k uncounted mail in votes left

eire4

paul71 wrote: »

Leaving aside the states still not decided, between New York, New Jersey and California there are still 10 million uncounted votes. They will come down heavily in favour of Biden. The popular vote is currently at 2.6 million in favour of Biden, that is going to increase dramatically.

No question his final margin of victory in the actual national vote will end up being pretty solid I would say north of 5%.

BlitzKrieg

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1324452644170158086

Oh an expected trump county in Georgia went the other way in mail ballots. Could be a sign that a flip is on the way

jasonb

everlast75 wrote: »

Well, this is nothing to worry about *clenches teeth*

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324454065326026753?s=19

I assume the whole Cabinet resign when the ruling party are voted out of power? In fact, if the West Wing has thought me anything, they even resign if the incumbent President wins, to save him the embarrassment of having to fire any that he doesn't want in his new cabinet.

paul71

Leaving aside the states still not decided, between New York, New Jersey and California there are still 10 million uncounted votes. They will come down heavily in favour of Biden. The popular vote is currently at 2.6 million in favour of Biden, that is going to increase dramatically.

jasonb

PA Secretary of State has said there's approx. 500k ballots left and the vast majority could be counted by the end of the day their time.

everlast75

Well, this is nothing to worry about *clenches teeth*

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324454065326026753?s=19

Mr.Nice Guy

Analysts seem pretty confident about Nevada.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324449985195376651

jasonb

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Ads for schizophrenia medication where a woman is talking to her friend about her mental health problems. The friend recommends some medication. The woman listens to the friend and buys the medication. The friend disappears. The friend was just a voice in her head.

Same ad, every break the other night on some us news channel. Bizzare

Haven't seen the Ad, thankfully, but if she goes and buys that medication without seeing her Doctor that also says a lot about the country!

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Summary of CNN take on GA
12,835 diff.

47,000 votes to be counted - all mail-in votes.

Chatham - 17,000 votes remaining. Biden at 58%
Fulton - 7,000 votes remaining. Biden at 73%
Cobb - 700 votes remaining. Biden at 56%
Gwenette - 4,800 votes remaining. Biden at 59%
Forsyth - No figure given by CNN. Biden at 32%
Clayton - 6,000 votes remaining. Biden at 85%

Biden needs 63-65%
Trump needs 34-36%

FWIW I did a few sums completely based off my own opinion on what Biden might get from mail-in; I reckon he'll win by about 5,000.
Useless stat, just an opinion which is conservatively based off what Biden has been doing nationwide with mail-ins. I'd be quietly confident in winning GA if I was Biden.

Nody

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

This, in Texas, pretty much sums up what happened nationwide in this election:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

I think the fact they came with in 600k votes of flipping Texas should really scare republicans. If they lose Texas that's the election over pretty much (38 votes) and the trend in the voting behavior has gone against them for quite a while now and don't look like it's likely to change any time soon.

murpho999

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I hope but I am expecting to be disappointed.

No, that's what those percentages are. Results of normal votes.

Postal ballots will be different.

Either way it won't matter as he's going to win PA and that will be enough.

Brussels Sprout

This, in Texas, pretty much sums up what happened nationwide in this election:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

Water John

Just winning the 270 by one close state is not ideal. Best if Biden wins the four races, then Trump cannot launch multiple cases in various states with any credibility.

thebaz

Nody wrote: »

Quick math using the percentages would put Biden failing by 629 votes (he gains 12206 on Trump vs. being down 12835) and that's before Forsyth is taken into account; will be a recount either way I'm guessing.

very tight - could go either way - think aPennysalvia will decide, if Biden wins here will send out a message , same as Georgia, rather than if he scrapes home in Nevada.

Hurrache

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

Most of Fox News US ads are for medical products too .
Its a very strange scenario .
Both demographics must be elderly unhealthy people.

It's just ads in general in America, particularly daytime ads, across the networks.

Dillonb3

Next set of counts from Arizona and Nevada may edge towards Trump the remaining are going to favor Biden from Dem leaning areas

https://twitter.com/NiallStanage/status/1324386820008906752

Irish Praetorian

murpho999 wrote: »

No, as you're forgetting it's postal votes they're counting and he's beating Trump 4-1 on postal votes.

I think Biden is going to do it in GA (and PA, AZ & NE).

I hope but I am expecting to be disappointed.

Heres Johnny

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

Most of Fox News US ads are for medical products too .
Its a very strange scenario .
Both demographics must be elderly unhealthy people.

Ads for schizophrenia medication where a woman is talking to her friend about her mental health problems. The friend recommends some medication. The woman listens to the friend and buys the medication. The friend disappears. The friend was just a voice in her head.

Same ad, every break the other night on some us news channel. Bizzare

everlast75

marno21 wrote: »

I can't imagine it's any different to the **** she's had to listen to for the last 15 years.

I'd say this is the first time she saw him finish second....

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Nody wrote: »

Quick math using the percentages would put Biden failing by 629 votes (he gains 12206 on Trump vs. being down 12835) and that's before Forsyth is taken into account; will be a recount either way I'm guessing.

Forsyth have about 123,000 votes counted and 95% done.
That leaves about 6,000 votes left there.

murpho999

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Doing those numbers, Biden gets 25.2k votes.

To overturn a Trump lead he needs 29.9k votes.

Looks like a case of close but no cigar - but then the vote totals we have only add up to 35.5k.
So that brings us back to square one.

No, as you're forgetting it's postal votes they're counting and he's beating Trump 4-1 on postal votes.

I think Biden is going to do it in GA (and PA, AZ & NE).

Water John

CNN was putting Biden need in 65% I think but he's surpassing that.

Harry Palmr

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

Most of Fox News US ads are for medical products too .
Its a very strange scenario .
Both demographics must be elderly unhealthy people.

They pay and pay well for media time. The USA is so unhealthy and anything related to same costs so much everyone is a winner except for the consumer. Unless they have shares of course!

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Nody wrote: »

Quick math using the percentages would put Biden failing by 629 votes (he gains 12206 on Trump vs. being down 12835) and that's before Forsyth is taken into account; will be a recount either way I'm guessing.

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Doing those numbers, Biden gets 25.2k votes.

To overturn a Trump lead he needs 29.9k votes.

Looks like a case of close but no cigar.

I wouldn't be taking the figures from the percentages I have given though because they are mail in ballots. These have shown to skew heavily towards Biden all over the country, and in the more urban area (where the majority of vites are left) Biden is doing near 90%.

The Iron Giant

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Doing those numbers, Biden gets 25.2k votes.

To overturn a Trump lead he needs 29.9k votes.

Looks like a case of close but no cigar - but then the vote totals we have only add up to 35.5k.
So that brings us back to square one.

Not necessarily. Remember that Biden generally benefits from mail-ins more than regular ballots. Not a sure thing by any means but following the trends is likely not accurate.

Water John

Nody wrote: »

Quick math using the percentages would put Biden failing by 629 votes and that's before Forsyth is taken into account; will be a recount either way I'm guessing.

Biden is beating those figures as those tabs include the voting on the day. The absentee ballot are running much higher for Biden. Was doubting it earlier but now think he'll pass Trump before they run out of votes.

Irish Praetorian

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Summary of CNN take on GA
12,835 diff.

47,000 votes to be counted - all mail-in votes.

Chatham - 17,000 votes remaining. Biden at 58%
Fulton - 7,000 votes remaining. Biden at 73%
Cobb - 700 votes remaining. Biden at 56%
Gwenette - 4,800 votes remaining. Biden at 59%
Forsyth - No figure given by CNN. Biden at 32%
Clayton - 6,000 votes remaining. Biden at 85%

Biden needs 63-65%
Trump needs 34-36%

Doing those numbers, Biden gets 25.2k votes.

To overturn a Trump lead he needs 29.9k votes.

Looks like a case of close but no cigar - but then the vote totals we have only add up to 35.5k.
So that brings us back to square one.