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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Damien360 wrote: »

Discussed in detail on CNN. Not all the votes remaining are urban. Biden polls 75% in urban areas but Trump gets upwards of 60% rural. Can’t remember the breakdown of urban vs rural remaining.

Absolutely correct but the urban vote, for obvious reasons, is far more important.

Very difficult to see Trump holding on there.

Edit: I should also add that they are only counting mail-in ballots. CNN just said that there was only 1 county where Trump won a county with mail in votes. Also said in Philly the mail in ballots are up to 95% for Biden.

The Iron Giant

Maricopa County will announce its next numbers at ~2am.

This would likely seal Arizona one way or the other.

Foxtrol

Damien360 wrote: »

Discussed in detail on CNN. Not all the votes remaining are urban. Biden polls 75% in urban areas but Trump gets upwards of 60% rural. Can’t remember the breakdown of urban vs rural remaining.

Biden is coming in better than Clinton was in 2016 in most rural areas and add to that the mail in vote (that they are now counting) is trending blue nearly everywhere when compared to the in person. There maybe some areas that come in something like 60% for Trump but I don't see many of them with a lot of raw vote totals

StringerBell

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Maricopa County will announce its next numbers at ~2am.

This would likely seal Arizona one way or the other.

Not necessarily, as I believe they are waiting for votes to come in from another area that should have a fair amount of blue votes but yeah if trump doesn't pull ahead by a good bit I'd say that will probably do it for AZ and fox can breathe a sigh of relief

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Any results of note coming in tonight our time or will it have to be tomorrow morning?

pixelburp

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Maricopa County will announce its next numbers at ~2am.

This would likely seal Arizona one way or the other.

Isn't that the county of the famous sheriff Joe Arpaio? He seemed aggressively pro Trump, but is there a sense of what the county's overall leanings might be?

The Iron Giant

pixelburp wrote: »

Isn't that the county of the famous sheriff Joe Arpaio? He seemed aggressively pro Trump, but is there a sense of what the county's overall leanings might be?

Democrat leaning. And it is significantly the largest county left to vote; larger than the rest of the outstanding counties combined.

Water John

Yes Georgia is going the right direction for Biden. Not sure will he run out votes to be counted before he passes Trump?
I think Maricopa outstanding ballots will half the 13K lead.

The Iron Giant

Water John wrote: »

Yes Georgia is going the right direction for Biden. Not sure will he run out votes to be counted before he passes Trump?
I think Maricopa outstanding ballots will half the 13K lead.

Maricopa is in Arizona.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Twitter dumps deleted. Please do not just post tweets here.

Itssoeasy

It seems that joe Biden and Kamala Harris are having a briefing on the coronavirus. That’s a stark difference to trump. Now Biden may be doing it to show the difference between himself and trump. But I think it’s that he doesn’t dismiss this stuff out of hand because it’s not good. IF he becomes president it’s clear he’ll be better on that score.

rossie1977

pixelburp wrote: »

Isn't that the county of the famous sheriff Joe Arpaio? He seemed aggressively pro Trump, but is there a sense of what the county's overall leanings might be?

That's Phoenix metro so pretty much 50/50 overall but if its early voting or mail Biden will have edge you would think.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

pixelburp wrote: »

Isn't that the county of the famous sheriff Joe Arpaio? He seemed aggressively pro Trump, but is there a sense of what the county's overall leanings might be?

48.6% voted Trump there in 2016.
47.2% voted Trump in 2020 of already tallied votes.

On a slightly related note 55.2% voted McCain in 2016.

Trump needs closer to 55% iirc.

everlast75

CNN are saying that if Biden gets PA he has won.

Just by way of stark contrast, I've linked George Bush Snr's concession speech, the contrast being Trump rage tweeting, launching frivolous law suits and inciting violence...

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324422303145512960?s=19

Water John

Diff in PA is now less than 109K

Itssoeasy

So just watching CNN and they seem to suggesting that Pennsylvania may be called today. I know there is one county not counting today but they seem to be suggesting that Biden’s eventual lead may be enough to call the state for joe Biden.

AllForIt

everlast75 wrote: »

CNN are saying that if Biden gets PA he has won.

Just by way of stark contrast, I've linked George Bush Snr's concession speech, the contrast being Trump rage tweeting, launching frivolous law suits and inciting violence...

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324422303145512960?s=19

Bill Clinton got 370 electoral votes. And there was no twitter back then

rossie1977

Ironically it would be Clinton and Newt Gingrich/rise of FOX News that we would see the beginning of the ultra partisanship on the Republican side that continues to this day.

marno21

everlast75 wrote: »

CNN are saying that if Biden gets PA he has won.

Just by way of stark contrast, I've linked George Bush Snr's concession speech, the contrast being Trump rage tweeting, launching frivolous law suits and inciting violence...

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324422303145512960?s=19

Yes, but George HW Bush respected his country and its institutions.

If Biden had won 413-125 (the most realistic method he could have won every swing stage including FL/TX/IA/OH/NC + the ones he's in contention for), Trump would call it a fraud.

Trump was complaining that the 2016 election was rigged before it had taken place because he was expected to lose. Then he was complaining after the election because he didn't win the popular vote.

Anyone who expected him to gracefully concede was being really naive when you see the way he has behaved to date since he was elected.

Itssoeasy

everlast75 wrote: »

CNN are saying that if Biden gets PA he has won.

Just by way of stark contrast, I've linked George Bush Snr's concession speech, the contrast being Trump rage tweeting, launching frivolous law suits and inciting violence...

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1324422303145512960?s=19

Well yeah Biden is 17 short of 270 so the 20 EC votes will put him over the top.

I haven’t seen that speech in a while but I’m thinking of the John McCain concession speech in 2008. It was superb and trump couldn’t even come close to either man.

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

These lads are taking it well I see...

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1324405952708300802

https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1324405345448464384

Levin is now moving the narrative on to the next step in Trump's plan to stay in power despite election results.

The Trump team plan is to now use confusion and chaos to undermine certification of results and to prevent States' results from being translated into a slate of electors. He has already claimed victory. He has claimed PA. He has sown the seeds of voter fraud. Remember, he asked supporters to double-vote, allegedly to 'test the system'. He can now 'prove' that voter fraud happened, thereby giving State GOP Secretary of State grounds for failing to certify the Dem/Biden result, in which case the GOP will send it OWN slate of electors to the Electoral College.

Read this Atlantic article, and listen to this Seth Abramson podcast, and then ask yourself if this is possible. I see Levin's tweet as 'following the plan' and Woods' tweet as providing the violent threats to facilitate that.

For me, PA and GA are two such 'dangerous' GOP controlled states who could easily flip a Biden win into a GOP slate. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm watching closely.

I really want to see Biden take both AZ and NV so that 270 will be reached without PA and/or GA proving me right or wrong.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

https://youtu.be/ANhCTNPMv60

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Maricopa County will announce its next numbers at ~2am.

This would likely seal Arizona one way or the other.

2am our time?

Itssoeasy

marno21 wrote: »

Yes, but George HW Bush respected his country and its institutions.

If Biden had won 413-125 (the most realistic method he could have won every swing stage including FL/TX/IA/OH/NC + the ones he's in contention for), Trump would call it a fraud.

Trump was complaining that the 2016 election was rigged before it had taken place because he was expected to lose. Then he was complaining after the election because he didn't win the popular vote.

Anyone who expected him to gracefully concede was being really naive when you see the way he has behaved to date since he was elected.

Well bush 41 served his country and institutions.

bennyl10

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So just watching CNN and they seem to suggesting that Pennsylvania may be called today. I know there is one county not counting today but they seem to be suggesting that Biden’s eventual lead may be enough to call the state for joe Biden.

That county has started re-counting seemingly

rossie1977

Trumps a big problem but long after Trump is gone there remains O'Reilly, McConnell, Hannity, Ingraham, Limbaugh, Jones, Carlson, Breitbart and hundreds of far right youtube channels where millions of Americans and many Irish will consume their news going forward.

Brian?

pixelburp wrote: »

Isn't that the county of the famous sheriff Joe Arpaio? He seemed aggressively pro Trump, but is there a sense of what the county's overall leanings might be?

Maricopa county is essentially the city of Phoenix and it's metro area. It's an interesting mixed bag. I lived there for a while when sheriff Joe was around. He got elected because he went aggressively after men who didn't pay child support and drunk drivers. With some heavy handed checking of papers of Mexican looking people. But the turn out for him was nothing like you'd get for a general election. Big turn out is majorly in favour of the dems

JaimeLannister

Off-topic i know but must have seen that Quest Means Business ad on CNN International about 1000 times over the last few days. Most annoying ad ever!! :mad:

"What a profitable day!"

Brian?

Highlight of the night: Rick Santorum is wearing converse with a suit.

Water John

Brian? wrote: »

Highlight of the night: Rick Santorum is wearing converse with a suit.

He must be trolling Kamala.

rockatansky

JaimeLannister wrote: »

Off-topic i know but must have seen that Quest Means Business ad on CNN International about 1000 times over the last few days. Most annoying ad ever!! :mad:

"What a profitable day!"

They have some amount of ads! Every time I turn it on Julia Chatterley (very easy on the eyes) is asking someone any chance of an ipo!