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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Shelga

Any chance of hundreds of thousands of incoming military votes swinging things either way? How do they figure in the electoral college?

Hopefully they didn't take too well to being called losers by Trump.

Quin_Dub

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I completely agree innocent until proven guilty, I just couldn't say to myself that I would want that as a standard all politics aside. And I was struck by the fact that nobody seemed to have a real reason for making it that lax.

I think the main point is that despite decades of claiming voter fraud , the GOP have yet to be able to provide any evidence to support those claims.

Each time a change is made to facilitate easier access to voting , the GOP shout "Fraud!!!" without evidence.

And then when analysis is done and the instance of voter fraud is shown to be infinitesimally small , they simply ignore that and start talking about "Open to fraud" and still don't explain how.

There will always be *some* fraud , in ones and twos here and there , but the actual chances of fraud at the scale required to actually influence a result in an election where hundreds of thousands or millions of votes are cast is just incalculably small.

The GOP know that , but they still shout about it to sow division and confusion.

Quin_Dub

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of hundreds of thousands of incoming military votes swinging things either way? How do they figure in the electoral college?

Hopefully they didn't take too well to being called losers by Trump.

Probably not as they'd be spread out across the entire country so there's unlikely to be a massive chunk dropping into a single State.

[Deleted User]

paul71 wrote: »

The court is already involved, there is a chance that the recently appointed head of the USPS could be found in contempt of a federal court order to sweep processing plants on Tuesday, the punishment contempt of court can be imprisonment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/

He could be in serious trouble if found to be interfering with this, especially ignoring a court order. Bot tampering with the mail service and voting are serious federal crimes.

Remains to be seen though.

jasonb

Looks like Trump's lead in PA is now just under 136,000

Brian?

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of hundreds of thousands of incoming military votes swinging things either way? How do they figure in the electoral college?

Hopefully they didn't take too well to being called losers by Trump.

There aren't that many and they're spread over all 50 states .

The Iron Giant

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1324366339432218629?s=20

moon2

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

See my post above yours about the ruling.

If the USPS has done anything illegitimate or there is any sign of ****ery on their part then let's see the evidence. I'm not doubting it, but I'm sure the democratic operatives / lawyers will be bringing it to the attention of the people and the courts if that's the case.

I don't care whether this is ****ery, incompetence or just bad luck. The point remains that if people send ballots long before the deadline, and through some quirk of fate they are not delivered by election day, there should be a window under which they are still eligible for being counted.

"Arrive within N days of election and be postmarked on or before election day" is quite a fair rule. Extending this to also include "Does not have a legible post mark but is part of a batch of post where the majority of mail is post marked on or before election day" is also fair and reasonable.

tl;dr A democratic and fair election should be flexible enough to account for expected issues, but strict enough to protect against fraud.

EDIT:

I haven't heard a good reason why ballots lacking any verification that they were posted before the election being counted after the election is a good thing.

If USPS can't deliver letters on time, why should you be dependent on them actually postmarking letters on time too? If they're failing at one they're highly likely to fail at the other.

Bear in mind, ballots do not *lack any verification*. They'll be part of bundles of mail and those bundles should be dateable even if some individual items lack a postmark. Either way, handing USPS the responsibility to validate legal votes is definitely not democratic.

murpho999

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

The measures were brought in because of Covid and makes sense.

Postal votes must be verified and batches signed off.
You can't just bring 100,000 postal votes to a centre and dump them as being claimed.

No evidence whatsoever of fraud. Also why is the fraud only benefitting Democrats and not republicans.

It's only being brought up by losing Republicans, and should simply be ignored.

People turning up to vote is also subject to fraud too by the way.

Hurrache

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Call me old fashioned, but I think every election should require a voter to turn up at a polling station on election day.

No pre-voting weeks before Election Day or postal votes (where postmarks are being debated!!).

The only exception should be postal votes for the verifiably infirmed or hospitalised.

The American system is ripe for fraud.

And yet fraud is not an issue.

bennyl10

61k to be counted in Georgia as of 5 minutes ago

Keano

I like the drama but I do want to Biden to be called soon. My nerves!

Retr0gamer

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I haven't heard a good reason why ballots lacking any verification that they were posted before the election being counted after the election is a good thing.

1. Because it's perfectly legal and perfectly acceptable in the state in question.
2. Nobody gets disenfranchised.

So what are the bad points of doing this considering each vote sent out will be serialised so it will be very obvious if there is fraud?

jasonb

bennyl10 wrote: »

61k to be counted in Georgia as of 5 minutes ago

According to AP Trump has a 18,144 lead there, so Biden needs 79.7% of those votes to catch Trump. Assuming the AP figure is up to date and has everything bar those 61k...

Mr.Nice Guy

CNN say Pennsylvania won't be called today as there are 120,000 votes in Philadelphia alone to be called. Around 700,000 votes total to be counted state-wide. Seems to bode well for Biden if current voting trends continue.

breezy1985

I feel very sorry for all those states that flipped if the orange fella wins. I imagine the republicans are gonna try put more serious curbs on postal votes after this too

spacecoyote

bennyl10 wrote: »

61k to be counted in Georgia as of 5 minutes ago

So if Biden wins Georgia, that technically brings the 269 tie back in play doesn't it?

Manic Moran

quokula wrote: »

Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.

Not really. California is a whopping 55 votes. That's a full fifth of the way to win, from one state. A California Democrat can sit back, satisfied that he's given his candidate a great headstart. California Republicans, of course, are less happy about it.

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBlu/status/1324349677660184585?s=19

This needs to be acknowledged.

It was Trump's plan to downplay the virus, get his supporters to the polls on the day and as democrats would most likely post their ballots to reduce COVID exposure, declare victory on the night and set the narrative that the postal votes were rigged.

This was all by design.

What, the fact that Michigan and Wisconsin, at least, have always allowed mail-in voters to change their mind and withdraw their vote (and thus the mail-in votes cannot be tallied ahead of time) is part of a plot to rig election victory? In that case, why didn't the Republicans running Florida think of such a dastardly scheme, when they presume that a mailed-in ballot cannot be changed and allow counting early?

I'm sorry if Mr Blumenthal thinks that speed of result reporting is the most important factor. Most of us can afford to wait a few days.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Can I defend that one?
Within reason (and I define that as having been postmarked within the normal postal time to get to the centre by polling day) I can't see why properly postmarked votes that get to the centre after polling day shouldn't be counted.

An interesting problem occurred in Florida back in the Gore/Bush days, when Gore attempted to ensure (in fairness, in accordance with Florida law) that no ballots without a valid postmark were counted. The catch is that military mail is not postmarked. That resulted in some backlash. Presumably they've figured out how to square that circle since.

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of hundreds of thousands of incoming military votes swinging things either way? How do they figure in the electoral college?

Hopefully they didn't take too well to being called losers by Trump.

Active military personnel get to choose their home of record for all purposes (Voter registration, driving licenses, car registration, tax reporting) as either the address at which they entered service (i.e. their home county), or as their current permanent posting location. As a result, there are many arguments for a California soldier posted to Ft Hood, Texas, to register in Bell County, Texas (No income tax, 10% car registration costs etc) and vote locally, but a Texas airman posted to Edwards Air Force Base in California would likely wish to retain his home of record in Texas and vote by mail in Texas elections.
When overseas (on a ship, wherever), the mail-in vote goes to whatever home of record that they have chosen. As military personnel disproportionately come from Southern/SouthEastern US to begin with, combined with the Tax-free states such as Florida or Texas having large military communities and bases, they will have a larger impact there in the mail-in-tally than other locations.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

jasonb wrote: »

According to AP Trump has a 18,144 lead there, so Biden needs 79.7% of those votes to catch Trump. Assuming the AP figure is up to date and has everything bar those 61k...

Are my maths way off or does he not 'only' need two thirds? That would give him 40,000, Trump takes 20,000 plus his 18,000 lead, which leads to Biden winning by 2,000?

everlast75

I don't remember any Trump supporter on here the evening of the election calling fraud.

Curious.

paul71

Has Trump made any TV appearance since his bizarre conference where he claimed victory?

It looks to me like he has been sulking in his bedroom with several big mac meals and his Ipad for more than 24 hours now.

spacecoyote

jasonb wrote: »

According to AP Trump has a 18,144 lead there, so Biden needs 79.7% of those votes to catch Trump. Assuming the AP figure is up to date and has everything bar those 61k...

Pretty sure 65% would be enough to get him over the line on those numbers

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Are my maths way off or does he not 'only' need two thirds? That would give him 40,000, Trump takes 20,000 plus his 18,000 lead, which leads to Biden winning by 2,000?

You are correct.

L1011

And its claimed that one of the counties that has a significant amount left to declare is likely to be 80% Biden

Mr.Nice Guy

Nevada update expected in 90 minutes.

breezy1985

everlast75 wrote: »

I don't remember any Trump supporter on here the evening of the election calling fraud.

Curious.

They are still in bed after burning all their energy shouting "check the bookies lads" " All over lads" at about 3am on Wednesday morning

ancapailldorcha

breezy1985 wrote: »

They are still in bed after burning all their energy shouting "check the bookies lads" " All over lads" at about 3am on Wednesday morning

No more goading please.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324368202139357186

Unfortunately for him that's simply not true.

josip

circadian wrote: »

He could be in serious trouble if found to be interfering with this, especially ignoring a court order. Bot tampering with the mail service and voting are serious federal crimes.

Remains to be seen though.

Hopefully he gets tried after January 20th and Trump neglects to give him a preemptive pardon

jasonb

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Are my maths way off or does he not 'only' need two thirds? That would give him 40,000, Trump takes 20,000 plus his 18,000 lead, which leads to Biden winning by 2,000?

spacecoyote wrote: »

Pretty sure 65% would be enough to get him over the line on those numbers

MattS1 wrote: »

You are correct.

Yeah, I'm clearly still tired!