sheeplover55 wrote: » Pelosi isn't smart, she's just there to pander.
~Rebel~ wrote: » Christ, whatever else you want to say about her, she's definitely smart.
sheeplover55 wrote: » Oh he's made a quantitative edit - how Scientific. New York times +11 Wisconsin, Reuters +10. Same story across all the toss up states. Collins not a single polling outlet predicted her to win - the average was +10 for her D challenger. She won her race +10.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324179050156490754 I think that's between 5am and 8am our time. Yikes.
~Rebel~ wrote: » I mean, yeah... he's literally providing the raw information for you to come to your own conclusion. How many votes left, where they are, and what % would be needed to switch.
sheeplover55 wrote: » I could jumble a box of cornflakes around and let you guess how many individual flakes are in the bag too. Stealing a living - 2016, Brexit and now this election. Look at the congressional races, completely out of whack.
~Rebel~ wrote: » I'm not sure am I mistaken on something? Are those not just the numbers of the uncounted ballots? Like, nothing to do with polling or prediction, just the raw numbers of how many physical ballots remain to be counted from each county?
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324182358828961794 I hope this is correct. Most of my hopes right now rest on PA.
Rjd2 wrote: » Not a route, but if we ignore the initial hysteria about Florida it looks a comfortable enough win for Biden as he seems to have won much more swing states than he even needed. They will have a majority in the house, the republicans have not held the senate yet and Biden has won. They arguably would have taken that before the counting begun.
Manic Moran wrote: » Comfortable? Have you missed the last 24 hours' worth of posts on this thread? How comfortable did the posters seem to you? Sure, the final tally is good, but as we all know, in the winner-takes-all system, the EC votes don't tell the story of just how close it came do the other direction. If you want 'comfortable' in terms of EC, look at the election results from the 1980s. What better conditions are required for the Democrats to regain control of the Senate? This is the Trump senate and associated with him, ramming supreme court judges through, blocking the House at every turn, and pick whatever other complaint you want, and with far more R seats in the 'tossup' category than D. Only five years ago the Democrats had a majority 55-45 (including the two D-independents). Either the Ds need a better background environment (eg an even worse incumbent Senate), the Republicans had stellar candidates, or the Democrats put forward candidates who did not succeed in reaching the voters. Yes, it's not called yet, but it'll take some reasonably dramatic last second returns to give the Democrats 50. I don't see it happening. There was also no movement in the state legislatures, now I'm looking. Outside of losing the Montana governor's mansion, they also seem on track to lose the New Hampshire Senate. In return, they get the Arizona House. It is the most stable election in terms of state houses since 1944.
~Rebel~ wrote: » They just mentioned on CNN that some of the Nevada areas have numbers at the ready but that the states position is to release it all together. A fearful little piece of me is wondering if they have unfavorable numbers and want to wait for GA or PA to release a Biden victory first so that their own release isn't immediately met by Trump again claiming victory as a result. .
Manic Moran wrote: » Comfortable? Have you missed the last 24 hours' worth of posts on this thread? How comfortable did the posters seem to you? Sure, the final tally is good, but as we all know, in the winner-takes-all system, the EC votes don't tell the story of just how close it came do the other direction. If you want 'comfortable' in terms of EC, look at the election results from the 1980s.
BorneTobyWilde wrote: » People are dreaming, CNN trying to not declare anything, lets just squeeze another few hours, another few minutes with this dream of winning. Tears in their eyes. It's done, Trump won, and got more votes than last time.
Mellor wrote: » It will be much closer that the EC results will suggesting. But the majority of the discomfort was down to the republican votes being counted first and dems having to claw back the wins. If these states counted postal votes first, we'd be looking Biden establishing a huge lead and Trump's futile attempt to catch him. That's a much more comfortable count back. Even though the votes are the same in both cases.
Rjd2 wrote: » Out of curiosity Manic who do you see as the front runner for 2024 GOP primary?
Tell me how wrote: » I reckon Niki Halley has her eye on that position (and beyond) and will tick a lot of GOP boxes. Female, ethnic background, 6 year governor, Ambassador to UN, pro-life, walked away from Trump rather than being pushed or leaving in controversy. Supported him via tweets during debates but didn't come out dramatically to bat for him.
Rjd2 wrote: » Genuinely could make an argument for Ivanka, Don JR, De Santiis, Carlson Crenshaw, Hawley, Hailey and its not even 2021.
Tell me how wrote: » I'd take Don Jr off that list. Think he would be happy 'managing' an office block or something for a few hundred k a year away from the limelight. Michael Cohens book painted him as someone close to being continually bullied and demeaned by his father, I just don't see him as having the appetite for it. I'd add Mike Pence to that list instead of Don Jr. Wouldn't rule out Paul Ryan making a comeback either, think he withdrew as much to distance himself from Trump who he had butted heads with. He's also on the Board of Fox so could expect a favourable narrative from them. To be honest, I'm only thinking about this to distract me from hitting refresh on the results page.
Rjd2 wrote: » Would be hilarious if Jr ran and Sr endorsed someone else. :pac: " He doesn't have the magic does little Donny". Realistically whoever Trump endorses will have a huge chance, Hailey, Crenshaw, De Santis and to a lesser extent Hawley have done a good job in keeping on the right side of him even though in private they probably loath him. Its probably better for them that Trump does not serve a second term as it would be near impossible for any GOP person to win the presidency in 2024 after 8 years of Trump.
Manic Moran wrote: » Wasn't that what happened in Florida? A bunch of postal votes first, then the local tallies? I seem to recall some gnashing of teeth early on when the calls coming in from Miami showed Biden did much worse than Clinton four years prior.
